NCAA Football: Week 3

Akron -2 1/2 Indiana - Good spot for the Zips here. After taking their lumps in week 1 against a good Penn State team, they got healthy against an FCS opponent last week. Indiana looked to be improved against a questionable Western Michigan team after opening in a very shaky Thursday night win against their FCS cupcake. They feel a little overvalued here. Akron plays well against BCS teams, covering 4 straight and 6 of their last 8. Indiana still needs to prove it away from home, where they've dropped 6 of their last 7 against the number and 10 of their last 12 straight up.

Texas -18 1/2 Texas Tech - This number just doesn't feel right to me. The Horns return virtually everybody off a team that was favored by 3 in Lubbock last year (a number that was about right...despite the loss). So, swing it 6 points for the home/road switch and you're telling me that Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are worth single digits? I'm not buying the Red Raiders, yet. They'll have to do it against a good team and/or away from home first. They have a chance to do both here. The Horns have covered 4 of the last 5 between these two in Austin. Tech is 1-7 against the number in their last 8 road games against a ranked opponent (for full disclosure...the 1 was a total beatdown in Lawrence). In the two UT games during that stretch, Tech has surrendered 111 points.

Nebraska / Virginia Tech UNDER 51 - This total is being propped artificially high by the 35-30 final last year. That game included a special team's touchdown, a 5 yard drive following an interception, and a terrific passing performance by Joe Ganz, who's not walking through that door. the Nebraska game was the ONLY game VaTech played last year that would have gone over this total. This game should play out a little more traditionally than that contest and, just as we're looking for from Texas Tech, it'll be interesting to see how the Corn's offense looks away from home and against a good defense.

Michigan State +10 Notre Dame - I still don't think I believe in the Dame, and the betting world is overreacting to Sparty's loss last week against one of the better QBs in the country that the average fan couldn't pick out of a lineup. MSU is still a 9 win team that returned 15 starters. They're also 9-3 in this series (9-2-1 ATS) and the road team has won 7 of the last 8 straight up, including 5 straight covers for State in South Bend. Go Green...Go White.

UCLA -12 1/2 Kansas State - UCLA has been bet against heavily the first two weeks, with the line moving against them by 6 and 4 1/2 before they went on to cover both times. This week they're backed heavily against a team that (how do I put this delicately for my purple readers) has looked like...they might not...be making...a New Year's Day bowl this year. After Bill Snyder rallied the troops for a come-from-behind opening win against UMass, the Cats dropped a heartbreaker on the road to Louisiana Lafayette. UCLA is probably overvalued here, but I think it takes another couple weeks before Vegas adjusts to K-State's badness. It won't take that long for Bill Snyder to fire whoever decided to have him on the road two weeks in a row in the non-conference.

Leans:

Arizona +4 Iowa
Urban Meyer's Ego -62 Lane Kiffin's Mouth
Kansas -23 Duke
Tulsa +18 Oklahoma
Virginia / Southern Miss UNDER 46
Baylor -10 Connecticut