NCAA Championship Saturday

Florida -5 1/2 Alabama - The Crimson Tide has spent the whole season with an offense that is a little out of place on an elite team. They're just 40th nationally in total offense, which is quite low for an unbeaten team (by comparison, Florida is the next to worst unbeaten offense at 12th nationally). Florida is outstanding in these "big game" spots, as they're 10-1 ATS and 9-2 SU in their last 11 as a single digit favorite (10 of those games) or underdog.

Texas/Nebraska UNDER 47 - Both of these defenses are legit and both offenses should find tough sledding today. Nebraska predicates their offense behind Roy Helu Jr and the running game, but he'll be facing the nation's best rushing defense today (UT allows just 62 yards per game and under 2 YPC). It will be even more interesting when Texas has the ball. Nebraska will be the first team since Oklahoma that will be able to rush the passer with their front 4 and be able to contain Jordan Shipley without doing anything abnormal in the secondary.

Rutgers -2 West Virginia - The Mountaineers being propped up a bit by last week's big win over Pitt, but that game was at home and they had 2 weeks to prepare. These teams are virtually identical, so the home team action is appealing to me. Rutgers has lost 14 straight to West Virginia, so this is a huge game for them, but the stat is a little misleading as Rutgers only recently got good. They've covered 2 of the last 3 in this series and have won 4 straight on senior day.

Cincinnati -2 1/2 Pittsburgh - Cincy has been a little shaky down the stretch (0-3 ATS in the last 3 weeks). However, I think they've been looking ahead to this one a bit, they should be refocused now that it appears they'll need a win to go to their 2nd straight BCS bowl, and I really don't believe in Pitt.

Leans:

Arizona +7
Houston -2 1/2
Georgia Tech PK