Oakland +3 Kansas City - The Raiders showed a bit of a pulse on Monday night against San Diego, so maybe this team won't be as bad as we thought. More importantly, the Chiefs put some non-traditional points on the board against Baltimore to stay in the game...which is whey they're getting the edge here. Home Field Advantage means nothing in this series, with the visitors winning 5 straight outright (the last 4 as a dog of a 3 or more) and the Raiders have covered their last 3 trips to Arrowhead.
Denver / Cleveland UNDER 38 1/2 - Both teams really labored to score in week 1, and I suspect it's because both offenses just aren't very good. Brady Quinn has never materialized as a QB you can count on to sustain drives, and he'll be facing a Denver defense that looked pretty solid in holding the Bengals to 7 points. Kyle Orton reminded us last week that he's certainly not Jay Cutler and that you don't choose a quarterback based on emotion. The UNDER is 4-2-1 in the last 7 games involving the Browns.
New England / NY Jets OVER 45 1/2 - The Jets offense showed signs of life last week in Houston, and he returns home to be supported by a raucous crowd in his first start at the Meadowlands. On Monday night, the Patriots showed that their defense will be a little bit suspect but that the offense can still get it going. This game could turn into a track meet...with the one question being is the Jets defense really as good as it looked in holding a good Houston team in check. I think it could be a good unit, but it can't play that well two weeks in a row. The OVER has paid in 7 of the last 8 Pats games and is 6-4-1 in the last 11 involving the Jets.
San Diego -3 Baltimore - The Chargers defense was 11th against the run last year and 31st against the pass, so it's a defense pretty well suited to give trouble to Joe Flacco and the Ravens' run-oriented attack. Baltimore played 5 teams with a rushing defense in the top dozen last year and averaged barely over 15 points in those games. LT is hurt, so (I can't believe I'm going to write this), Darren Sproles will get more touches and provide more explosiveness to the San Diego offense.
NY Giants +3 Dallas - There will be a lot of festivities around the regular season debut of the Jerryland, but I just can't see how Dallas is favored here. This is still a 9-7 team that plays tremendously inconsistent football and generally has lines skewed toward them (they were underdogs only 3 times last year in losing those 7 games). The Giants, on the other hand, generally you pretty consistent effort, were a 12-4 team last year, and generally play just as well away from home as they do in Jersey (6-2 ATS last year on the road). The Cowboys are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the NFC East. Either the big Dallas win last year is holding this number artificially or I'm falling for a Vegas trap. We'll see tonight.
Leans:
Jacksonville -3
Chicago +3
New Orleans -1
Tennessee -7
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Open Letter to ESPN
Dear Bristol,
This week, I've seen Tim Teabow's "speech" from the press conference after the Ole Miss game last year multiple times on your network. If you're trying to make him look like a warrior, you're not. That footage is of a petulant child struggling with disappointment. He looks considerably more like the 12 year old you see with tears in his eyes after the Little League World Series than he does a Heisman winner, adult, and leader of a college football team. "No one will play harder than me, and I'll make sure these guys play hard, too" isn't leadership. You'd think Teabow was the first great player that has ever had to deal with a hard fought loss before. Being a member of your team made available for the postgame press conference, making a speech, and not taking any questions is bush league...it's not something to be celebrated.
Look, Teabow is a great player and by all accounts a great person. But that outburst last year was a long way from his best moment.
Respectfully,
Most College Football Fans Outside of Gainesville
This week, I've seen Tim Teabow's "speech" from the press conference after the Ole Miss game last year multiple times on your network. If you're trying to make him look like a warrior, you're not. That footage is of a petulant child struggling with disappointment. He looks considerably more like the 12 year old you see with tears in his eyes after the Little League World Series than he does a Heisman winner, adult, and leader of a college football team. "No one will play harder than me, and I'll make sure these guys play hard, too" isn't leadership. You'd think Teabow was the first great player that has ever had to deal with a hard fought loss before. Being a member of your team made available for the postgame press conference, making a speech, and not taking any questions is bush league...it's not something to be celebrated.
Look, Teabow is a great player and by all accounts a great person. But that outburst last year was a long way from his best moment.
Respectfully,
Most College Football Fans Outside of Gainesville
NCAA Football: Week 3
Akron -2 1/2 Indiana - Good spot for the Zips here. After taking their lumps in week 1 against a good Penn State team, they got healthy against an FCS opponent last week. Indiana looked to be improved against a questionable Western Michigan team after opening in a very shaky Thursday night win against their FCS cupcake. They feel a little overvalued here. Akron plays well against BCS teams, covering 4 straight and 6 of their last 8. Indiana still needs to prove it away from home, where they've dropped 6 of their last 7 against the number and 10 of their last 12 straight up.
Texas -18 1/2 Texas Tech - This number just doesn't feel right to me. The Horns return virtually everybody off a team that was favored by 3 in Lubbock last year (a number that was about right...despite the loss). So, swing it 6 points for the home/road switch and you're telling me that Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are worth single digits? I'm not buying the Red Raiders, yet. They'll have to do it against a good team and/or away from home first. They have a chance to do both here. The Horns have covered 4 of the last 5 between these two in Austin. Tech is 1-7 against the number in their last 8 road games against a ranked opponent (for full disclosure...the 1 was a total beatdown in Lawrence). In the two UT games during that stretch, Tech has surrendered 111 points.
Nebraska / Virginia Tech UNDER 51 - This total is being propped artificially high by the 35-30 final last year. That game included a special team's touchdown, a 5 yard drive following an interception, and a terrific passing performance by Joe Ganz, who's not walking through that door. the Nebraska game was the ONLY game VaTech played last year that would have gone over this total. This game should play out a little more traditionally than that contest and, just as we're looking for from Texas Tech, it'll be interesting to see how the Corn's offense looks away from home and against a good defense.
Michigan State +10 Notre Dame - I still don't think I believe in the Dame, and the betting world is overreacting to Sparty's loss last week against one of the better QBs in the country that the average fan couldn't pick out of a lineup. MSU is still a 9 win team that returned 15 starters. They're also 9-3 in this series (9-2-1 ATS) and the road team has won 7 of the last 8 straight up, including 5 straight covers for State in South Bend. Go Green...Go White.
UCLA -12 1/2 Kansas State - UCLA has been bet against heavily the first two weeks, with the line moving against them by 6 and 4 1/2 before they went on to cover both times. This week they're backed heavily against a team that (how do I put this delicately for my purple readers) has looked like...they might not...be making...a New Year's Day bowl this year. After Bill Snyder rallied the troops for a come-from-behind opening win against UMass, the Cats dropped a heartbreaker on the road to Louisiana Lafayette. UCLA is probably overvalued here, but I think it takes another couple weeks before Vegas adjusts to K-State's badness. It won't take that long for Bill Snyder to fire whoever decided to have him on the road two weeks in a row in the non-conference.
Leans:
Arizona +4 Iowa
Urban Meyer's Ego -62 Lane Kiffin's Mouth
Kansas -23 Duke
Tulsa +18 Oklahoma
Virginia / Southern Miss UNDER 46
Baylor -10 Connecticut
Texas -18 1/2 Texas Tech - This number just doesn't feel right to me. The Horns return virtually everybody off a team that was favored by 3 in Lubbock last year (a number that was about right...despite the loss). So, swing it 6 points for the home/road switch and you're telling me that Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are worth single digits? I'm not buying the Red Raiders, yet. They'll have to do it against a good team and/or away from home first. They have a chance to do both here. The Horns have covered 4 of the last 5 between these two in Austin. Tech is 1-7 against the number in their last 8 road games against a ranked opponent (for full disclosure...the 1 was a total beatdown in Lawrence). In the two UT games during that stretch, Tech has surrendered 111 points.
Nebraska / Virginia Tech UNDER 51 - This total is being propped artificially high by the 35-30 final last year. That game included a special team's touchdown, a 5 yard drive following an interception, and a terrific passing performance by Joe Ganz, who's not walking through that door. the Nebraska game was the ONLY game VaTech played last year that would have gone over this total. This game should play out a little more traditionally than that contest and, just as we're looking for from Texas Tech, it'll be interesting to see how the Corn's offense looks away from home and against a good defense.
Michigan State +10 Notre Dame - I still don't think I believe in the Dame, and the betting world is overreacting to Sparty's loss last week against one of the better QBs in the country that the average fan couldn't pick out of a lineup. MSU is still a 9 win team that returned 15 starters. They're also 9-3 in this series (9-2-1 ATS) and the road team has won 7 of the last 8 straight up, including 5 straight covers for State in South Bend. Go Green...Go White.
UCLA -12 1/2 Kansas State - UCLA has been bet against heavily the first two weeks, with the line moving against them by 6 and 4 1/2 before they went on to cover both times. This week they're backed heavily against a team that (how do I put this delicately for my purple readers) has looked like...they might not...be making...a New Year's Day bowl this year. After Bill Snyder rallied the troops for a come-from-behind opening win against UMass, the Cats dropped a heartbreaker on the road to Louisiana Lafayette. UCLA is probably overvalued here, but I think it takes another couple weeks before Vegas adjusts to K-State's badness. It won't take that long for Bill Snyder to fire whoever decided to have him on the road two weeks in a row in the non-conference.
Leans:
Arizona +4 Iowa
Urban Meyer's Ego -62 Lane Kiffin's Mouth
Kansas -23 Duke
Tulsa +18 Oklahoma
Virginia / Southern Miss UNDER 46
Baylor -10 Connecticut
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Thursday Night ACC
A close to kickoff play...
Georgia Tech +4 Miami - The Tech offense is hard to prepare for on a short week, Miami is getting a little too much love for beating a Florida State team that really looked bad in week 2. The Ramblin' Wreck have covered 4 straight in this series and 4 of their last 5 away from home.
Georgia Tech +4 Miami - The Tech offense is hard to prepare for on a short week, Miami is getting a little too much love for beating a Florida State team that really looked bad in week 2. The Ramblin' Wreck have covered 4 straight in this series and 4 of their last 5 away from home.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
NFL: Week 1
Houston -4 1/2 NY Jets - Matt Sanchez makes his career start against a defense that isn't great, but the Texans are a team with some offensive firepower, finishing last season 3rd in the league in total offense. Houston ended last season on a run where they covered 6 of their last 7, while the Jets stumbled home, dropping their last 5 ATS.
Jacksonville +7 Indianapolis - The Jags cratered last season under the weight of high expectations, but they've always been a tough matchup for the Colts, winning outright in Indy last year in week 3. The offense should be improved with a heavier mix of Maurice Jones-Drew, especially catching it out of the backfield.
Green Bay -4 Chicago - The Bears improved their offense over the summer, but their defense is getting old. The Packers could be the breakout team of 2009 with an experienced Aaron Rodgers running the show surrounded by plus weapons in Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 away from home.
Leans:
Cleveland +4 Minnesota
Tampa Bay +5 1/2 Dallas
Baltimore -12 1/2 Kansas City
Jacksonville +7 Indianapolis - The Jags cratered last season under the weight of high expectations, but they've always been a tough matchup for the Colts, winning outright in Indy last year in week 3. The offense should be improved with a heavier mix of Maurice Jones-Drew, especially catching it out of the backfield.
Green Bay -4 Chicago - The Bears improved their offense over the summer, but their defense is getting old. The Packers could be the breakout team of 2009 with an experienced Aaron Rodgers running the show surrounded by plus weapons in Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 away from home.
Leans:
Cleveland +4 Minnesota
Tampa Bay +5 1/2 Dallas
Baltimore -12 1/2 Kansas City
Friday, September 4, 2009
NCAA Kickoff Saturday
Illinois -6 1/2 Missouri - Illinois returns 8 starters on an offense that ended last season 19th in total offense. The Illini also, eventually, have to have a chip on their shoulder about how lopsided this series has been. This is the 5th time they've played each other to open the season in the last 8 season, and the Tigers have taken all 4 prior. Missouri doesn't overachieve much, having dropped 7 of their last 8 as an underdog.
Nevada +14 1/5 Notre Dame - Nevada returns 7 starters on each side of the ball from a team that lost a close game to Maryland last year in the Humanitarian Bowl. The Wolf Pack will hit Notre Dame with a balanced attack that was quietly 5th in the country in total offense. Notre Dame counters with more starters back (9 on O, 6 on D)...but off a team that wasn't as good. Neither unit was particularly impressive against a pretty easy schedule. In 2 games against teams that ended ranked, the Domers were outscored 61-10. Hard to see them settling in as a good football team in week 1. Notre Dame is 5-8 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, and Nevada has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.
Minnesota -7 Syracuse - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a team that won 7 games and qualified for the Insight Bowl, including most of the important pieces and the best player you've never heard of in wide receiver Eric Decker, who caught 84 balls last year for 1074 yards. Syracuse is best know for naming Duke's former point guard their starting QB. The Cuse has dropped 4 straight to the Big Ten against the number, and they've lost 6 of their last 7 home openers. On the flip side, Minnesota has covered 6 of their last 7 on the road.
Northern Illinois +16 1/2 Wisconsin - The thing that jumps out at you when you look at Northern Illinois is that they don't get blown out often. Last year it only happened once, against a good Ball State team. They put up a substantial fight in road games against Minnesota and Tennessee, which are teams that are in line with how good I expect Wisconsin to be this year. The Badgers entered last season ranked #13 and climbed into the top 10 before losing to Michigan and having their season spiral away into a 7-6 finish. This year's version might not even be as good as that one, as they are forced to replace PJ Hill and find some soltion to their QB problem. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a double digit favorite. The Huskies are 6-2-1 against the number in their last 9 against the Big Ten.
Leans:
Central Michigan +13 1/2
Wake Forest -2 1/2
Virginia Tech +6 1/2
Florida State -6
If you could bet on high school football:
Hutchison (KS) -up to a couple touchdowns Rockhurst (KC, MO)
Nevada +14 1/5 Notre Dame - Nevada returns 7 starters on each side of the ball from a team that lost a close game to Maryland last year in the Humanitarian Bowl. The Wolf Pack will hit Notre Dame with a balanced attack that was quietly 5th in the country in total offense. Notre Dame counters with more starters back (9 on O, 6 on D)...but off a team that wasn't as good. Neither unit was particularly impressive against a pretty easy schedule. In 2 games against teams that ended ranked, the Domers were outscored 61-10. Hard to see them settling in as a good football team in week 1. Notre Dame is 5-8 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, and Nevada has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.
Minnesota -7 Syracuse - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a team that won 7 games and qualified for the Insight Bowl, including most of the important pieces and the best player you've never heard of in wide receiver Eric Decker, who caught 84 balls last year for 1074 yards. Syracuse is best know for naming Duke's former point guard their starting QB. The Cuse has dropped 4 straight to the Big Ten against the number, and they've lost 6 of their last 7 home openers. On the flip side, Minnesota has covered 6 of their last 7 on the road.
Northern Illinois +16 1/2 Wisconsin - The thing that jumps out at you when you look at Northern Illinois is that they don't get blown out often. Last year it only happened once, against a good Ball State team. They put up a substantial fight in road games against Minnesota and Tennessee, which are teams that are in line with how good I expect Wisconsin to be this year. The Badgers entered last season ranked #13 and climbed into the top 10 before losing to Michigan and having their season spiral away into a 7-6 finish. This year's version might not even be as good as that one, as they are forced to replace PJ Hill and find some soltion to their QB problem. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a double digit favorite. The Huskies are 6-2-1 against the number in their last 9 against the Big Ten.
Leans:
Central Michigan +13 1/2
Wake Forest -2 1/2
Virginia Tech +6 1/2
Florida State -6
If you could bet on high school football:
Hutchison (KS) -up to a couple touchdowns Rockhurst (KC, MO)
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Big 12 Football Preview
1. Texas Longhorns - The Horns caught a break when Jordan Shipley was granted his 9th year of eligibility, meaning they don't have to replace both wide outs. Quan Cosby is the only offensive threat that should really be missed, and he's not the sort of irreplaceable talent you really worry about. So, Texas returns most of the pieces from the squad that ended last season ranked 9th nationally in total offense (though just 5th in the Big 12, to give you an idea of just how much offense was running around the conference last year.). To be as good as they want to be, they'll probably need to find a more consistent rushing attack that Colt McCoy doing it on broken plays, and this offensive line has the experience to do it. The Longhorns do have to replace the defensive front 4 (though the back 7 is pretty much in tact). The biggest loss along that defensive line is Brian Orakpo, who went 13th in the NFL draft. He was a guy so good that he didn't just require double teams, he forced protection packages to shift entirely to account for him. This also let Sergio Kindle, likely the best player on this year's defense, to move around in different packages. Kindle probably has to shift into a more traditional role this year. Ultimately though, there just aren't enough question marks here to think that Texas will be any worse than they were last year, and the schedule is favorable. Barring major injury, Mack Brown can roll the ball out and get 10 wins with this group. The non conference schedule is squeezably soft, they only draw one of the two best teams from the north and it's in Austin, so there just aren't many potential trip ups here. Key Games: Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, Kansas.
2. Oklahoma Sooners - The Sooners return a lot of pieces but they lose 4 starters from an offensive line that played together for the better part of 3 years and anchored the nation's 3rd best offense. If you're only going to return one guy off an offensive line, the left tackle (Trent Williams) is a good piece to build around. In addition to finding a couple of offensive linemen, they'll need to replace two of Sam Bradford's 3 favorite receivers from last year. All-Universe tight end Jermaine Gresham is back, and gives the offense a threat over the middle of the field that has to be handled with a nickel package or by committing a safety. But the two leading outside threats are gone in Iglesias and Johnson. Ryan Broyles, a smallish speed guy, showed a lot of promise as a freshman last year and is the mostly likely guy to find himself as the #1 receiver. The defense returns lots of key pieces and could be a strength. That unit will be anchored by Gerald McCoy, maybe the best interior tackle in the country, and Auston English, who led the Big 12 in sacks last year. The Sooners fit into the #2 spot because the schedule is a little tougher and they have more question marks than Texas. OU plays both of the north's two best teams, and both on the road, though if they're as good as they SHOULD be...the Red River Shootout could be their only test, but if they have trouble replacing some important pieces, suddenly quite a few of their games get pretty tough. Key Games: Texas, at Kansas, at Nebraska, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys - The Cowboys pick an interesting season to have their best offense since Barry Sanders was in town. The defense loses only the pieces that weren't very good, 3 of the 4 members of the secondary are gone, and they've absolutely got to find a way to improve upon the nation's 109th ranked passing defense. If they don't get better at stopping people, they'll have to score 60 a game (which isn't out of the question, actually). Much of the front 7 returns, with 3 of their top 4 tacklers back and as much experience as anybody in the conference along the defensive line. On the bright side, though...8 starters are back on offense, including the nation's best wide receiver in Dez Bryant. One of the guys that unit did lose was 1st round pick Brandon Pettigrew, who would have been better known but for the fact that the Big 12 had an assortment of great tight ends last year. Everybody else is back offensively, though...and this is a team that didn't really have trouble moving the ball or scoring, they just need a little help in order to do it after punts instead of kickoffs. The schedule also sets up nicely, as the Pokes don't play either Kansas or Nebraska and they get Missouri in Stillwater. Against the south, the roadies are A&M and Baylor before a Thanksgiving weekend showdown in Norman against the Sooners. This is a team that could live up to just a piece of its potential and find itself at 6-2 in the conference. Of course, they could be really good and still be 6-2...as Texas and OU could just be that good. Key Games: Texas, at Oklahoma.
4. Kansas Jayhawks - Pretty similar breakdown to Okie State here as this is a team that returns most of its offense but needs to figure out a way to improve upon a defense that has some talent but gives up huge chunks of yards and points. This defensive unit loses its linebacking core, but returns key pieces in the secondary, including the Big 12's best safety in Darrell Stuckey. The front 4 is back but needs some help from younger guys if it's going to improve. KU used LB James Holt at defensive end late in the year last season to provide more pass rushing speed. He's gone and a switch to a base 4-2-5 means the defensive line will be relied on to pressure the QB without help of lots of blitzing. On the offensive side of the ball, the skill guys all return, including perhaps the best wide receiver tandem in the country in Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, who combined for 189 catches for 2450 and 23 TDs. The offensive line lost bodies on the interior but appears to be in as good a shape as it was last year when the tackles were both redshirt freshmen. Last year's left tackle, Jeremiah Hatch, will slide over to center. Still, there's some cause for concern here as all 5 starters along the line are underclassmen, including 2 freshmen. The downside for these Jayhawks is that the schedule is just brutal. The south rotation brings both Oklahoma and Texas, as well as Texas Tech in Lubbock. KU misses out on a home game with the Border War at Arrowhead. On the bright side, their most likely opposition for the school's first birth in a Big 12 Conference Championship Game is Nebraska, who has to come to Lawrence in November. Key Games: Oklahoma, at Texas Tech, Nebraska, Missouri.
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers - An enigma of a team this coming season. This is a squad that should be good, as the talent level in Lincoln is fine, but it's a tale of two sides of the ball. Defensively, the Huskers should be in fine shape as they return the bulk of a solid, if unspectacular, defense. They'll be anchored at tackle by potential All American Ndamukong Suh, and they lose only one key pieces in the secondary and should be improved. Offensively, though...there are going to be some growing pains. The quarterback and top two receiving threats are gone, so this is a team that will likely have to build around the running game. In a spread conference, that can be done. There are lots of career starts on the offensive line and the leading rusher is back in Roy Helu Jr. But so much of the offense revolved around Joe Ganz last year that it could take some time. It's often overlooked how good Ganz was because the conference included names at QB like McCoy, Bradford, Daniel, Harrell, Reesing, Robinson, etc...but he was awfully good. No small feat to fill those shoes, and Nebraska will probably need to do it to keep pace with the Jayhawks in the north. Key Games: at Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, at Kansas.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders - The Red Raiders will be talked about by what they lost offensively, namely Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, but Mike Leach will find a way to build a video game style offense that moves the ball and puts points on the board. They only return one starter on the offensive line, but it's a unit that should be decent. So, I think they're key losses are on defense. Tech will probably never be a lock down defensive team, their offense just doesn't chew up enough clock to make it possible, but last year's unit was pretty good. They've lost 4 key pieces to that bunch and 3 of those are in a secondary that can't afford to take a step back with the offenses that Tech will be facing in this conference.
7. Colorado Buffaloes - I like Cody Hawkins about as well as you can like an average arm, average mobility college quarterback. His toughness is good and if they can find a body or two to block for him, he could be productive. There are 9 starters back on that offense, so they should be at least as good as they were last year on that side of the ball. Defensively, they've only got 4 starters back and will need to find some productive bodies. I'm going to assume they can't be slaughtered by injuries two years in a row and say they'll be improved. This is a team that could realistically get to 7-5 and find themselves in a bowl game, which would be a nice step in the right direction as Hawkins enters year 4 and has more of his own recruits in there now.
8. Missouri Tigers - Daniel, Maclin, Saunders, Coffman, Moore, and Christopher are all gone...but this is a program that has decent talent behind them and should rebound into something resembling a decent football team. Derrick Washington is back with most of his blockers, so they should have something to build around offensively. Blaine Gabbert is the likely starter at QB, and he's a highly touted kid, but he didn't play the spread in high school and as a sophomore it isn't clear how ready he'll be. The defense suffers massive losses as well, returning only 4 starters, coupled with the the 5 returning on offense gives Mizzou the least experienced team in the conference. Just too many question marks. A decent bowl game wouldn't be surprising but 5-7 wouldn't be either.
9. Baylor Bears - The Bears ran the ball well last year, getting ground yardage out of fun-to-watch QB Robert Griffin, but they have to figure out a way to throw it (last in the Big 12) and stop people from throwing it (103 nationally). This will be a pretty experience team with 8 starters back on each side of the ball, including all the important components offensively, excluding their best offensive lineman. They'll sport a senior-laden defensive bunch will be challenged in the Big 12 South with 3 pre-season top 10 teams will elite offenses plus Texas Tech. The schedule is brutal...Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State are the only conference teams going to Waco. Tech was moved to a neutral site. This team could be decent and find themselves at 3-5 in league play.
10. Kansas State Wildcats - Bill Snyder is back and he's pissed that he has to go on the road twice in the non conference. There are some decent aspirations among some for this team, but I just don't see it. I don't think they'll be able to run it much, which means the TBD quarterback will have his hands full, and I don't think they'll be very good along the line of scrimmage. Snyder will get them back, but it won't be this year.
11. Texas A&M Aggies - The Aggies couldn't run the ball last year (last in the Big 12, 114 nationally), and they lost arguably the best player off the offensive line. The skill guys are back on the offense, but they'll need to be much improved or beaten out by younger guys for Mike Sherman's squad to take a step forward.
12. Iowa State Cyclones - Austen Arnaud is back, I guess, but the defense is still terrible. A new coaching staff will try to piece together something useful after Gene Chizik left to take the Auburn job. I can't see more than 2 conference wins with this group and I think zero is fairly likely.
2. Oklahoma Sooners - The Sooners return a lot of pieces but they lose 4 starters from an offensive line that played together for the better part of 3 years and anchored the nation's 3rd best offense. If you're only going to return one guy off an offensive line, the left tackle (Trent Williams) is a good piece to build around. In addition to finding a couple of offensive linemen, they'll need to replace two of Sam Bradford's 3 favorite receivers from last year. All-Universe tight end Jermaine Gresham is back, and gives the offense a threat over the middle of the field that has to be handled with a nickel package or by committing a safety. But the two leading outside threats are gone in Iglesias and Johnson. Ryan Broyles, a smallish speed guy, showed a lot of promise as a freshman last year and is the mostly likely guy to find himself as the #1 receiver. The defense returns lots of key pieces and could be a strength. That unit will be anchored by Gerald McCoy, maybe the best interior tackle in the country, and Auston English, who led the Big 12 in sacks last year. The Sooners fit into the #2 spot because the schedule is a little tougher and they have more question marks than Texas. OU plays both of the north's two best teams, and both on the road, though if they're as good as they SHOULD be...the Red River Shootout could be their only test, but if they have trouble replacing some important pieces, suddenly quite a few of their games get pretty tough. Key Games: Texas, at Kansas, at Nebraska, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys - The Cowboys pick an interesting season to have their best offense since Barry Sanders was in town. The defense loses only the pieces that weren't very good, 3 of the 4 members of the secondary are gone, and they've absolutely got to find a way to improve upon the nation's 109th ranked passing defense. If they don't get better at stopping people, they'll have to score 60 a game (which isn't out of the question, actually). Much of the front 7 returns, with 3 of their top 4 tacklers back and as much experience as anybody in the conference along the defensive line. On the bright side, though...8 starters are back on offense, including the nation's best wide receiver in Dez Bryant. One of the guys that unit did lose was 1st round pick Brandon Pettigrew, who would have been better known but for the fact that the Big 12 had an assortment of great tight ends last year. Everybody else is back offensively, though...and this is a team that didn't really have trouble moving the ball or scoring, they just need a little help in order to do it after punts instead of kickoffs. The schedule also sets up nicely, as the Pokes don't play either Kansas or Nebraska and they get Missouri in Stillwater. Against the south, the roadies are A&M and Baylor before a Thanksgiving weekend showdown in Norman against the Sooners. This is a team that could live up to just a piece of its potential and find itself at 6-2 in the conference. Of course, they could be really good and still be 6-2...as Texas and OU could just be that good. Key Games: Texas, at Oklahoma.
4. Kansas Jayhawks - Pretty similar breakdown to Okie State here as this is a team that returns most of its offense but needs to figure out a way to improve upon a defense that has some talent but gives up huge chunks of yards and points. This defensive unit loses its linebacking core, but returns key pieces in the secondary, including the Big 12's best safety in Darrell Stuckey. The front 4 is back but needs some help from younger guys if it's going to improve. KU used LB James Holt at defensive end late in the year last season to provide more pass rushing speed. He's gone and a switch to a base 4-2-5 means the defensive line will be relied on to pressure the QB without help of lots of blitzing. On the offensive side of the ball, the skill guys all return, including perhaps the best wide receiver tandem in the country in Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, who combined for 189 catches for 2450 and 23 TDs. The offensive line lost bodies on the interior but appears to be in as good a shape as it was last year when the tackles were both redshirt freshmen. Last year's left tackle, Jeremiah Hatch, will slide over to center. Still, there's some cause for concern here as all 5 starters along the line are underclassmen, including 2 freshmen. The downside for these Jayhawks is that the schedule is just brutal. The south rotation brings both Oklahoma and Texas, as well as Texas Tech in Lubbock. KU misses out on a home game with the Border War at Arrowhead. On the bright side, their most likely opposition for the school's first birth in a Big 12 Conference Championship Game is Nebraska, who has to come to Lawrence in November. Key Games: Oklahoma, at Texas Tech, Nebraska, Missouri.
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers - An enigma of a team this coming season. This is a squad that should be good, as the talent level in Lincoln is fine, but it's a tale of two sides of the ball. Defensively, the Huskers should be in fine shape as they return the bulk of a solid, if unspectacular, defense. They'll be anchored at tackle by potential All American Ndamukong Suh, and they lose only one key pieces in the secondary and should be improved. Offensively, though...there are going to be some growing pains. The quarterback and top two receiving threats are gone, so this is a team that will likely have to build around the running game. In a spread conference, that can be done. There are lots of career starts on the offensive line and the leading rusher is back in Roy Helu Jr. But so much of the offense revolved around Joe Ganz last year that it could take some time. It's often overlooked how good Ganz was because the conference included names at QB like McCoy, Bradford, Daniel, Harrell, Reesing, Robinson, etc...but he was awfully good. No small feat to fill those shoes, and Nebraska will probably need to do it to keep pace with the Jayhawks in the north. Key Games: at Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, at Kansas.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders - The Red Raiders will be talked about by what they lost offensively, namely Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, but Mike Leach will find a way to build a video game style offense that moves the ball and puts points on the board. They only return one starter on the offensive line, but it's a unit that should be decent. So, I think they're key losses are on defense. Tech will probably never be a lock down defensive team, their offense just doesn't chew up enough clock to make it possible, but last year's unit was pretty good. They've lost 4 key pieces to that bunch and 3 of those are in a secondary that can't afford to take a step back with the offenses that Tech will be facing in this conference.
7. Colorado Buffaloes - I like Cody Hawkins about as well as you can like an average arm, average mobility college quarterback. His toughness is good and if they can find a body or two to block for him, he could be productive. There are 9 starters back on that offense, so they should be at least as good as they were last year on that side of the ball. Defensively, they've only got 4 starters back and will need to find some productive bodies. I'm going to assume they can't be slaughtered by injuries two years in a row and say they'll be improved. This is a team that could realistically get to 7-5 and find themselves in a bowl game, which would be a nice step in the right direction as Hawkins enters year 4 and has more of his own recruits in there now.
8. Missouri Tigers - Daniel, Maclin, Saunders, Coffman, Moore, and Christopher are all gone...but this is a program that has decent talent behind them and should rebound into something resembling a decent football team. Derrick Washington is back with most of his blockers, so they should have something to build around offensively. Blaine Gabbert is the likely starter at QB, and he's a highly touted kid, but he didn't play the spread in high school and as a sophomore it isn't clear how ready he'll be. The defense suffers massive losses as well, returning only 4 starters, coupled with the the 5 returning on offense gives Mizzou the least experienced team in the conference. Just too many question marks. A decent bowl game wouldn't be surprising but 5-7 wouldn't be either.
9. Baylor Bears - The Bears ran the ball well last year, getting ground yardage out of fun-to-watch QB Robert Griffin, but they have to figure out a way to throw it (last in the Big 12) and stop people from throwing it (103 nationally). This will be a pretty experience team with 8 starters back on each side of the ball, including all the important components offensively, excluding their best offensive lineman. They'll sport a senior-laden defensive bunch will be challenged in the Big 12 South with 3 pre-season top 10 teams will elite offenses plus Texas Tech. The schedule is brutal...Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State are the only conference teams going to Waco. Tech was moved to a neutral site. This team could be decent and find themselves at 3-5 in league play.
10. Kansas State Wildcats - Bill Snyder is back and he's pissed that he has to go on the road twice in the non conference. There are some decent aspirations among some for this team, but I just don't see it. I don't think they'll be able to run it much, which means the TBD quarterback will have his hands full, and I don't think they'll be very good along the line of scrimmage. Snyder will get them back, but it won't be this year.
11. Texas A&M Aggies - The Aggies couldn't run the ball last year (last in the Big 12, 114 nationally), and they lost arguably the best player off the offensive line. The skill guys are back on the offense, but they'll need to be much improved or beaten out by younger guys for Mike Sherman's squad to take a step forward.
12. Iowa State Cyclones - Austen Arnaud is back, I guess, but the defense is still terrible. A new coaching staff will try to piece together something useful after Gene Chizik left to take the Auburn job. I can't see more than 2 conference wins with this group and I think zero is fairly likely.
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