Saturday, December 4, 2010

NCAA: Championship Saturday

Oklahoma -4 1/2 Nebraska - The swan song for the Cornhuskers in the Big 12 before taking their ball and running to the Big Ten. Interesting that NU can spend 60 years pounding the Big 8, and all that can be unraveled by a dozen years of having Texas and Oklahoma punk you. If it's not too much trouble, I hope the Big 12 sends their worst crew to JerryWorld, and Oklahoma has something like a 18-4 advantage in penalties. This rivalry hasn't been of the "throw the records out" sort, as the favorite is 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS over the last 10. Oklahoma is playing in their 8th Big 12 title game, and they're 6-1 in the previous 7. The south champ has been a solid play in this game historically, going 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS since the formation of the conference.

Oregon State +16 1/2 Oregon and South Carolina +5 1/2 Auburn - These games where a team can win and they're in the BCS title game historically lead the favorite to play pretty tight (see: Longhorns, Texas 2009). At least that's how it seems to me, I don't really have much data to back that up...just a feeling.

Louisiana Tech +8 Nevada - The Wolfpack hit the road after what I presume to be the biggest win their football program's history...it'll be pretty hard to get up for that. By itself, that's not so convincing, but the home team has dominated this series recently, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 against the number in the last 6. Bit of a steam play, too...public pretty solidly behind Nevada and this number had nosedived.

Leans:
South Florida -2
Cincinnati -2
SMU +9

No comments: