Lots of big favorites this week, making for a bunch of games to stay away from...
Dallas -7 Kansas City - The Cowboys aren't as good as they were supposed to be, but the Chiefs are living up to their billing. Romo in a bounce-back spot after two bad weeks in a row, and gets to play a defense that plays hard but doesn't generate much pass rush (ranking just 26th in the league in sacks). Also, the Chiefs should be bet against every week until we know Vegas has valued them properly.
New England -3 Denver - The Broncos are the worst 4-0 team in NFL history and eventually the horseshoe has to fall out of their ass. You'd have to call Cincy their best win, on a fluky tipped miracle, and their offense has shown a lot of weakness, only topping 17 points twice and against two of the worst five teams in football. The Patriots have covered 6 of their last 9 as a FG favorite or less. Denver has covered 2 of their last 9 at home.
Washinton +4 1/2 Carolina - The Panthers coming off the early BYE week, but they're a team in disarray right now. The Redskins haven't played well in any game, yet...but have scratched out a 2-2 record, so far. With Jake Delhomme playing terrible, I'm not sure Carolina can find a balanced enough attack to be good offensively. The Skins are 3-1-1 in their last 5 as a road dog.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Friday, October 9, 2009
NCAA Football: Week 6
Minnesota -3 Purdue - The Boilermakers have suffered some close losses this year and are at a tipping point where they either fight for a couple of gutsy wins or pack it in and figure themselves to be a hard-luck team. The problem this week is they play a pretty good Minnesota team on the road, on their homecoming, and the Gophers are coming off a tough loss of their own against Wisconsin...just a bad spot for Purdue to try to get right. Minnesota is 2-1-1 in their last 4 against Purdue, and the Boilermakers are 1-5-1 ATS when they're getting less than 10 on the road.
Indiana +7 Virginia - The Hoosiers hit the road against after a decisive loss at home to Ohio State last week. A bit of an overreaction line here after Virginia showed signs of life in a win against North Carolina last week. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last 3 at home and is just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 chances as a favorite. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-1 against the number on the season and has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.
Oklahoma State -4 1/2 Texas A&M - Okie State misses Dez Bryant, due to some alleged contact with Neon Deion, but they're still a dynamic offense and a defense that can be exposed against spread-oriented teams but that is solid and improving against more traditional styles. The Aggies have failed to cover 4 straight (and 7 of their last 9) as an underdog.
Arkansas +3 Auburn - This is a value play for a couple of reasons, first Auburn is 5-0 on the season, 4-1 against the number, and generally generating a lot of action behind them for a team that has only been on the road once, where they beat a bad Tennessee team in a close game. Second, Arkansas won a narrow 3 point game last year but hidden in that is that the Razorbacks outgained the Tigers 416-193 in that game and it was a total fluke that Auburn kept it that close.
Georgia +1 Tennessee - Speaking of the Vols, and staying in the SEC, Tennessee's high point of the season was figuring out that Florida can't hurt you on the edges and avoiding getting blown out. When "we kept it under 2 touchdowns" is the highlight of your resume, you're not very good and you shouldn't be laying points to Georgia. The Bulldogs have a couple of decent wins at Arkansas and against South Carolina. Both of their losses were to fairly legit football teams. The Vols have two wins to their credit against Western Kentucky and Ohio. Until proven otherwise, Georgia is the better team here.
Oklahoma -28 Baylor - Sam Bradford is going to play, and it's anyone's guess as to how effective he'll be trying to shake the rust off, but the important matchup in this game is figuring out how Baylor is going to move the ball without Robert Griffin against a fierce Sooner defense. OU has uncharacteristically lost two games already, and they've got Texas looming in Big D next week, but they're 6th nationally in rushing defense and Baylor is a team that relies on running the ball to keep the chains moving. OU averages a 43-12 margin against Baylor since the arrival of Bob Stoops. The Sooners have covered 7 of their last 8 in Norman.
Leans:
Michigan +8
San Jose State -4
UTEP -2
Texas Tech -16
Akron +3 1/2
Indiana +7 Virginia - The Hoosiers hit the road against after a decisive loss at home to Ohio State last week. A bit of an overreaction line here after Virginia showed signs of life in a win against North Carolina last week. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last 3 at home and is just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 chances as a favorite. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-1 against the number on the season and has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.
Oklahoma State -4 1/2 Texas A&M - Okie State misses Dez Bryant, due to some alleged contact with Neon Deion, but they're still a dynamic offense and a defense that can be exposed against spread-oriented teams but that is solid and improving against more traditional styles. The Aggies have failed to cover 4 straight (and 7 of their last 9) as an underdog.
Arkansas +3 Auburn - This is a value play for a couple of reasons, first Auburn is 5-0 on the season, 4-1 against the number, and generally generating a lot of action behind them for a team that has only been on the road once, where they beat a bad Tennessee team in a close game. Second, Arkansas won a narrow 3 point game last year but hidden in that is that the Razorbacks outgained the Tigers 416-193 in that game and it was a total fluke that Auburn kept it that close.
Georgia +1 Tennessee - Speaking of the Vols, and staying in the SEC, Tennessee's high point of the season was figuring out that Florida can't hurt you on the edges and avoiding getting blown out. When "we kept it under 2 touchdowns" is the highlight of your resume, you're not very good and you shouldn't be laying points to Georgia. The Bulldogs have a couple of decent wins at Arkansas and against South Carolina. Both of their losses were to fairly legit football teams. The Vols have two wins to their credit against Western Kentucky and Ohio. Until proven otherwise, Georgia is the better team here.
Oklahoma -28 Baylor - Sam Bradford is going to play, and it's anyone's guess as to how effective he'll be trying to shake the rust off, but the important matchup in this game is figuring out how Baylor is going to move the ball without Robert Griffin against a fierce Sooner defense. OU has uncharacteristically lost two games already, and they've got Texas looming in Big D next week, but they're 6th nationally in rushing defense and Baylor is a team that relies on running the ball to keep the chains moving. OU averages a 43-12 margin against Baylor since the arrival of Bob Stoops. The Sooners have covered 7 of their last 8 in Norman.
Leans:
Michigan +8
San Jose State -4
UTEP -2
Texas Tech -16
Akron +3 1/2
Saturday, October 3, 2009
NFL: Week 4
No writeups again this week...more laziness than not having time, but whatever...
Baltimore +2 New England
Buffalo PK Miami
Green Bay +4 Minnesota
San Diego +7 Pittsburgh
Tennessee -3 Jacksonville
NY Giants -9 Kansas City
San Francisco -9 1/2 St Louis
Baltimore +2 New England
Buffalo PK Miami
Green Bay +4 Minnesota
San Diego +7 Pittsburgh
Tennessee -3 Jacksonville
NY Giants -9 Kansas City
San Francisco -9 1/2 St Louis
Friday, October 2, 2009
NCAA Football: Week 5
Limited plays for tonight. I'll be watching line movements to add another play or two from my leans or otherwise. Pretty light week in college but likely a heavy week in the NFL. Good Luck.
Iowa State -2 1/2 Kansas State - The Cyclones are 3-1 against the number, while K-State really hasn't shown much fight against their FBS opponents. Iowa State has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, pretty much coinciding with the Wildcats not being good any more, and that trend continues to be true.
Arkansas -1 Texas A&M - This number should be at least 4 or 5. The Aggies roll in as a team that wasn't very good last year and hasn't been tested at all, yet. The Razorbacks played a shootout and lost with Georgia and were railroaded by Alabama, who looks like something resembling the best team in the country so far. Great bounce-back spot for Arkansas against a team that isn't as good as Vegas perceives them so far.
Florida Atlantic -3 1/2 Wyoming - Still a little too much love in the world based on one half disinterested football by Texas. FAU hasn't covered, yet but it's mostly based on difficulty of schedule and a little bad luck. Wyoming is also 0-3 against the number, but it's basically forgotten by them being competitive with the Horns for one half. This number should be 6+...valuable play here.
Leans:
Auburn +2
Arkansas State +22
Michigan State -3 1/2
Navy -3
Washington +12
Central Michigan -8
Iowa State -2 1/2 Kansas State - The Cyclones are 3-1 against the number, while K-State really hasn't shown much fight against their FBS opponents. Iowa State has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, pretty much coinciding with the Wildcats not being good any more, and that trend continues to be true.
Arkansas -1 Texas A&M - This number should be at least 4 or 5. The Aggies roll in as a team that wasn't very good last year and hasn't been tested at all, yet. The Razorbacks played a shootout and lost with Georgia and were railroaded by Alabama, who looks like something resembling the best team in the country so far. Great bounce-back spot for Arkansas against a team that isn't as good as Vegas perceives them so far.
Florida Atlantic -3 1/2 Wyoming - Still a little too much love in the world based on one half disinterested football by Texas. FAU hasn't covered, yet but it's mostly based on difficulty of schedule and a little bad luck. Wyoming is also 0-3 against the number, but it's basically forgotten by them being competitive with the Horns for one half. This number should be 6+...valuable play here.
Leans:
Auburn +2
Arkansas State +22
Michigan State -3 1/2
Navy -3
Washington +12
Central Michigan -8
Monday, September 28, 2009
Monday Night Football
Carolina +9 Dallas - The Panthers have started slow this season after having everybody back from a 12-4 playoff team. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that they actually outgained the Falcons in Atlanta last week. Carolina has the two best offensive players in the game in Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams. Last week, the Cowboys struggled to handle the crappy Steven Smith, and they're unlikely to fair any better tonight. Add in the fact that Marion Barber isn't expected to play, putting a bit more pressure on Romo to perform, and it looks like the Cowboys are way overvalued in this spot. Just too many points. The Cowboys were 2-3 ATS as more than a touchdown favorite last year and lost two of the games outright. Carolina has won and covered 4 straight when they're spending their 2nd straight week on the road.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
NFL: Week 3
No writeups this week, as I don't have enough time. Here's the plays...
Tennessee +3 NY Jets - The Titans season is hanging in the balance and their defense is good enough to test Sanchez
Chicago -2 1/2 Seattle - Seattle a tough place to win but Cutler looked more comfortable last week.
Denver -1 1/2 Oakland - Oakland is bad enough to need points in just about ever game. Not getting enough here.
Philadelphia -7 1/2 Kansas City - Eagles can't have enough guys hurt to help the Chiefs here.
Cleveland +14 Baltimore - Lots of points...strictly a play because I had it capped at 10 1/2.
San Diego -5 1/2 Miami - I don't believe in Miami, and the Bolts are in a classic bounce-back spot.
Tennessee +3 NY Jets - The Titans season is hanging in the balance and their defense is good enough to test Sanchez
Chicago -2 1/2 Seattle - Seattle a tough place to win but Cutler looked more comfortable last week.
Denver -1 1/2 Oakland - Oakland is bad enough to need points in just about ever game. Not getting enough here.
Philadelphia -7 1/2 Kansas City - Eagles can't have enough guys hurt to help the Chiefs here.
Cleveland +14 Baltimore - Lots of points...strictly a play because I had it capped at 10 1/2.
San Diego -5 1/2 Miami - I don't believe in Miami, and the Bolts are in a classic bounce-back spot.
Friday, September 25, 2009
NCAA Football: Week 4
Buffalo +3 1/2 Temple - Wrong Team Favored. Both teams return 15 starters and this line is being affected by the fact that the Bulls needed a hail mary at the end of the game last year to get by the Owls. Lost in that is that Buffalo is 12-1 all-time against Temple, and this Temple team was bad enough to lose to FCS Villanova. Buffalo comes in having lost two straight, at home to Pitt and at Central Florida, while Temple comes in after having a covered against Penn State in a game that they drastically trailed in total yardage until moving it some in garbage time.
Florida State -14 South Florida - Matt Grothe will miss the rest of the season with an injury to his knee, and he's taken pretty much every Bull snap for the last 3+ years since winning the job early as a true freshman, including leading the team in passing and rushing for most of that time. They'll have trouble replacing him seamlessly. The Seminoles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 at home against non-conference opponents, and South Florida is 4-7 against the number in their last 11 away from home.
Utah -14 Louisville - The Utes in a bounce-back spot after their first loss since 2007 last week at Oregon. Utah is 0-3 ATS on the season, which will trend money away from them and make them a value play here. Louisville is in a bit of a letdown spot after a close, hard-fought, emotional loss to hated rival Kentucky last week. The Utes have covered 3 of the last 4 at home, has won their last 6 against the Big East, and is 3-0 against Louisville. The Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 away from home, covering in 3 of those game.
Minnesota PK Northwestern - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a bowl team, and I still think they'll ultimately be improved. They lost at home to Northwestern last year, which is why the Wildcats opened as a favorite, but they've improved more than Northwestern has. The Wildcats hold the head-to-head trend edge, but Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 away from home.
Leans:
Georgia / Arizona State UNDER 50 1/2
Georgia Tech -3 North Carolina
Purdue +7 Notre Dame
Middle Tennessee -6 North Texas
Florida International PK Toledo
Florida State -14 South Florida - Matt Grothe will miss the rest of the season with an injury to his knee, and he's taken pretty much every Bull snap for the last 3+ years since winning the job early as a true freshman, including leading the team in passing and rushing for most of that time. They'll have trouble replacing him seamlessly. The Seminoles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 at home against non-conference opponents, and South Florida is 4-7 against the number in their last 11 away from home.
Utah -14 Louisville - The Utes in a bounce-back spot after their first loss since 2007 last week at Oregon. Utah is 0-3 ATS on the season, which will trend money away from them and make them a value play here. Louisville is in a bit of a letdown spot after a close, hard-fought, emotional loss to hated rival Kentucky last week. The Utes have covered 3 of the last 4 at home, has won their last 6 against the Big East, and is 3-0 against Louisville. The Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 away from home, covering in 3 of those game.
Minnesota PK Northwestern - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a bowl team, and I still think they'll ultimately be improved. They lost at home to Northwestern last year, which is why the Wildcats opened as a favorite, but they've improved more than Northwestern has. The Wildcats hold the head-to-head trend edge, but Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 away from home.
Leans:
Georgia / Arizona State UNDER 50 1/2
Georgia Tech -3 North Carolina
Purdue +7 Notre Dame
Middle Tennessee -6 North Texas
Florida International PK Toledo
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