NCAA Football: Week 6

Minnesota -3 Purdue - The Boilermakers have suffered some close losses this year and are at a tipping point where they either fight for a couple of gutsy wins or pack it in and figure themselves to be a hard-luck team. The problem this week is they play a pretty good Minnesota team on the road, on their homecoming, and the Gophers are coming off a tough loss of their own against Wisconsin...just a bad spot for Purdue to try to get right. Minnesota is 2-1-1 in their last 4 against Purdue, and the Boilermakers are 1-5-1 ATS when they're getting less than 10 on the road.

Indiana +7 Virginia - The Hoosiers hit the road against after a decisive loss at home to Ohio State last week. A bit of an overreaction line here after Virginia showed signs of life in a win against North Carolina last week. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last 3 at home and is just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 chances as a favorite. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-1 against the number on the season and has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.

Oklahoma State -4 1/2 Texas A&M - Okie State misses Dez Bryant, due to some alleged contact with Neon Deion, but they're still a dynamic offense and a defense that can be exposed against spread-oriented teams but that is solid and improving against more traditional styles. The Aggies have failed to cover 4 straight (and 7 of their last 9) as an underdog.

Arkansas +3 Auburn - This is a value play for a couple of reasons, first Auburn is 5-0 on the season, 4-1 against the number, and generally generating a lot of action behind them for a team that has only been on the road once, where they beat a bad Tennessee team in a close game. Second, Arkansas won a narrow 3 point game last year but hidden in that is that the Razorbacks outgained the Tigers 416-193 in that game and it was a total fluke that Auburn kept it that close.

Georgia +1 Tennessee - Speaking of the Vols, and staying in the SEC, Tennessee's high point of the season was figuring out that Florida can't hurt you on the edges and avoiding getting blown out. When "we kept it under 2 touchdowns" is the highlight of your resume, you're not very good and you shouldn't be laying points to Georgia. The Bulldogs have a couple of decent wins at Arkansas and against South Carolina. Both of their losses were to fairly legit football teams. The Vols have two wins to their credit against Western Kentucky and Ohio. Until proven otherwise, Georgia is the better team here.

Oklahoma -28 Baylor - Sam Bradford is going to play, and it's anyone's guess as to how effective he'll be trying to shake the rust off, but the important matchup in this game is figuring out how Baylor is going to move the ball without Robert Griffin against a fierce Sooner defense. OU has uncharacteristically lost two games already, and they've got Texas looming in Big D next week, but they're 6th nationally in rushing defense and Baylor is a team that relies on running the ball to keep the chains moving. OU averages a 43-12 margin against Baylor since the arrival of Bob Stoops. The Sooners have covered 7 of their last 8 in Norman.

Leans:

Michigan +8
San Jose State -4
UTEP -2
Texas Tech -16
Akron +3 1/2