NCAA Football: Week 4

Michigan State -8 1/2 Notre Dame – Michigan State returned to a bowl game last year to reverse the trend of 3 straight losing seasons. They've been Golden Domer killers for the last decade or so, going 9-2 against the number in the last 11 matchups. Lost in the misery of Notre Dame's beatdown of 6-turnover Michigan last week (and my losing bet) was that the Wolverines outgained the Irish by almost 130 yards, and Notre Dame's offense really wasn't able to run or pass the ball reliably. Now that offense goes on the road against a team that can legitimately score and won't give them a defensive score and two other drives that start inside the 20...Sparty has turned it over just 4 times in their opening 3 games, and were 18th best in the country last year at protecting the football.

Akron -10 Army – Army is among the worst teams in D1 football. They've only covered 1 of their last 8 and most of those non-covers have been by multiple scores. Since Syracuse isn't on the board this week, we're left with Army as our “play against this team until they cover one” team. Akron won and covered this matchup last year, and Army lost their 3 best receivers on that team. Akron failed to cover last week behind the strength of 5 turnovers (after turning it over just twice in their first 2 games). The piss-poor weather has moved out, so expect the Zips to get back to hanging onto the football, and score a comfortable victory over the Black Knights.

Wake Forest +5 Florida State – The Seminoles probably deserve a round of applause as this week they finally play a D1 team after opening with Western Carolina and Chattanooga. FSU destroyed both of those teams, but I'm still not ready to anoint them the Florida State teams of old. Wake has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series and won the last two outright. They've also covered 4 of their last 5 road games. Meanwhile the Seminoles were 3-7-2 against the number last year, including 1-3-2 at home.

Fresno State -7 Toledo – Fresno State is coming off a frustrating home loss to Wisconsin in a game where they outgained the Badgers but gave points away to suffer a narrow defeat and should come into this game pissed off. Toledo rolls in getting too much respect after pounding Eastern Michigan last week. They return only 3 starters on offense, struggled in week 1 against Arizona, and will find the sledding tough against Fresno's front 7. Toledo's traditional home field advantage has crumbled the last two years, as they've gone 5-7 in back-to-back seasons and slipped from their perch as MAC darlings.

Missouri -32 1/2 Buffalo – The Tigers have been a covering machine dating back to the beginning of last season. They finished the 2007 season 11-2 SU and 10-3 against the number. They've picked up right where they left off this year, covering both of their listed games so far. This is a team you've got to play until they cool off, and large numbers aren't too big of a problem because Gary Pinkel doesn't mind doing things like faking a field goal with a 4 touchdown lead. Buffalo has some reasonable talent on offense, and may even score a little bit in this game...but I don't see any way they hold Mizzou under half a hundred.