NFL: Week 3

Not a very appealing slate of games this week. Lots of numbers that seem awfully close to correct and 15 of 16 home teams are favored, so I'll go with a couple of those home favorites I like...

Atlanta -6 1/2 Kansas City - The Chiefs started the season terrible, and they've piled two injured quarterbacks and a loudmouth, overpaid, prima donna running back that's pissed off to the mix. The defense is still OK, but they're on the field for 45 minutes and every opponent drive starts on the 40. If I'm going to suffer through this terrible football, I'm at least going to make some money for it. Until further notice, always play against Kansas City if they're getting a touchdown or less on the road or if they're getting 4 or less at home. Vegas will eventually figure it out, but we've got to take advantage while we can.

Denver -5 1/2 New Orleans - Denver is the better team here and they're at home. They survived a great effort from San Diego last week in a heck of a ballgame (marred by a pretty bad call at the end) to go to 2-0. Lost in the hard-fought road loss that the Saints suffered last week was that they were outgained by 200 yards. This is the best team they've faced, they're away from home, and they've struggled the first two weeks with a couple of middling teams. This is a game that could turn into a semi-shootout, but the Broncos have more bullets. Denver is 4-1-1 in their last 6 at Mile High.

Tennessee -4 1/2 Houston - The Texans had last week off, but I doubt that will matter. The Titans roll in at 2-0 and shed their poor quarterback for their better one (officially a knee on the NFL injury report). The defense is just too good, though. The Tennessee unit was 5th in total defense last season and have picked up right where they left off allowing just 202 yards per game in the first two weeks. They're doing a little bit of running back by committee, and both guys are good, so they've got the ability to wear defenses down running the football while forcing opposing offenses into 3 and outs at a higher than average rate. Houston has covered only 1 of their last 8 away from home.

Leans:

Washington -3 Arizona - Juice is high on the 'Skins side right now, so I'm gonna wait and see if it moves.