NCAA Week 7

Well, a trip to Vegas and my golf club's Ryder Cup weekend meant two weeks off from the blog. But I'm back, rested, and ready to kill my (and your) bookie. We're going to stay largely in the Big 12 this week so, onto the picks....

Texas Tech -20 1/2 Nebraska - The Huskers got rolled up by Mizzou in Lincoln and this is an equally bad spot for them. Tech will have rolled up half a hundred by the end of the 3rd quarter. The Red Raiders are 3-0 against the number this year, while Nebraska is 2-3 and hasn't been away from home, yet. Tech has covered the last 2 in this series and 4 of the last 6, including a 70-10 beatdown in the last meeting in Lubbock...which was the most points ever scored against the Cornhuskers until last year when they lost to the best team in college football history.

Missouri - 14 Oklahoma State - Vegas is correctly valuing Missouri at this piont, but Okie State is getting WAY too much respect. This is a team that's probably improved, and will end up being pretty good, but they've played nobody and they're 4-0 against the number. While I hate Mizzou as much as the next guy and hope OSU pulls the upset outright, it's just not going to happen. The Tigers are 3-1 against the number, they were 10-2 ATS last year, and they've covered 5 of the last 6 against the Cowboys.

Northwestern +1 1/2 Michigan State - Tough spot for Sparty this week. They're probably the better team here, but this game falls in between home games against Iowa (which they narrowly won) and Ohio State (who they host next week). These teams have one common opponent in Iowa, which both beat narrowly...though Northwestern got that win on the road. So, Northwestern is at home, as an underdog, with a week's rest, the line is moving down even with most of the best on Michigan State, and the Wildcats are 5-1 against the number in the last 6 in the series.

The Red River Shootout - The Longhorns have won 2 of the last 3 in this series (covering all 3) and lost by a touchdown last year when Jamaal Charles fumbled inside the Sooner 5 and Colt McCoy threw an interception. Outside of the turnovers, Texas played better. On the flip side, Sam Bradford was a true freshman playing quarterback in his 5th game. He was pretty good that day and should be better this year. The Sooner offensive line has something like 600 starts between them at this point, and OU had a much easier time running the ball in the game last year (170 yards on 4.1/carry vs 61 yards on 2.1/carry for Texas). With OU having everybody back, and the Horns losing Charles...that advantage should grow this year. These teams have both rolled and are a combined 10-0 against the number this year. OU has to get the (slight) objective nod, as TCU is better than anybody Texas has played and Cincinnati might be, too. Still, an ass-whipping at Colorado is a good win. Should be a hell of a ball game...I'll take Oklahoma -6 1/2.

Leans:
Baylor -4 1/2
Colorado +14
Tulsa -24