NCAA Week 8

Good card this week, which is nice. I can't keep losing every game. Right?

Buffalo -11 Army - Buffalo parlayed their Hail Mary win over Temple into 3 straight losses and they head home for just the thing that will cure what ails you...a terrible Army team that, through back-to-back wins and covers, is finally providing value again. Army has proven that they're not the worst team in Division I, but they're still not good enough for this spot. The Black Knights have covered back-to-back games on the road, but that ended a 4 game ATS losing streak away from home. Buffalo needs this one, and playing at home they'll get it comfortably.

Texas / Missouri OVER 65 - Two teams that can throw the ball playing against two defenses that absolutely cannot defend it. Against schedules that are pretty pedestrian (43 and 87 according to Sagarin), these defenses rank ##109 and #113 against the pass. So, both offensive coordinators have spent the whole week putting game plans in place to take advantage. Actually, now that I think about it, Dave Christensen has done that, Greg Davis will go zone read all night. Texas is #3 against the run, but I'm not sure if that's because they're good at it or because teams don't even try given the squeezably soft pass defense. In any event, even if the Horns make Mizzou one dimensional, that dimension is pretty good. The OVER is 5-1 in games involving these teams this year. Shootout.

Colorado -3 1/2 Kansas State - Colorado opened 3-0 against the number before dropping their last 3. But those losses were to some pretty decent football teams, as they failed to cover on the road against Florida State and Kansas and at home against, in hindsight, what was a pretty undervalued Texas team. Meanwhile, K-State got to pick up a road win against an absolutely terrible Texas A&M team to end a 3 game ATS skid. The Buffaloes drew top 20 teams in their first two conference games to start 0-2 making this one they'll be hungry to win. K-State gave up 544 yards of offense to Texas A&M last week. Read that again, 544 yards to Texas A&M.

Iowa State +7 1/2 Nebraska - Last week is playing WAY too heavily on this line. Entering last Saturday, Iowa State was 4-0-1 against the number while Nebraska was 2-3 with the two covers coming against absolute nobodies. But, Nebraska took Texas Tech to overtime and Iowa State got blown out at Baylor (that's a decent Baylor team, by the way...with a QB that will be a star soon). So, all of a sudden, Iowa State is getting more than a touchdown at home? I don't buy it. The Cyclones are 3-0 against the number this year, with all the covers being by more than a touchdown, and going back to last year they've covered 6 straight in Ames. Nebraska has covered only 2 of their last 7 away from home.

Oklahoma -19 1/2 Kansas - Lots of bad things happening for the good guys here...Oklahoma coming off a loss to Texas last week, game in Norman, KU hasn't been sharp on the road since the unraveling against South Florida started, the Jayhawks turn the ball over and the Sooners don't, etc. If this game in close after the first quarter, it could be a close ball game, but Oklahoma has started quickly this year...winning first quarters by a cumulative 110-6, while Kansas has actually LOST the first quarter, both overall and in road games. This one could get ugly early.

Northwestern -4 Purdue - The Wildcats finally fell from the ranks of the unbeatens last week, even though they outgained Michigan State by 160+ yards as a 2 point dog. Alas, they lost the turnover battle 3-0, gave up too many short fields, and didn't make the Spartans (a team that's way too good to give lots of help to) drive long fields. Purdue isn't as bad as they look, they've had a tough schedule...at least tough as Big Ten schedules go, but Northwestern is in a spot here where they should really play well and win going away.

Leans:

South Florida -24
Wisconsin +4
Texas Tech -21