NCAA Week 9

Kansas / Texas Tech OVER 68 1/2 - This is a replay matchup of Texas and Missouri last week, from a total perspective. Both teams move the ball very efficiently through the air, the Red Raiders are #1 like they usually are, while the Jayhawks are #6. Neither defense is very good against the pass, Kansas checks in at #99, while Tech is close behind at #103. There will be lots of big plays and lots of points, with the defenses assuming that 2 stops per half is a pretty good effort. The end zone will get in the way more than either defense.

Florida -25 1/2 Kentucky - This line is a little higher than I thought it'd be, as Kentucky's record is pretty decent and they played Alabama tough a couple weeks ago. On the flip side, Florida has been perfect against the number outside of the unbelievable outright loss to Ole Miss, and they had a week to rest and get healthy. This is a team that still has national title hopes, and they'll play well against an overmatched Kentucky squad today in the swamp.

Tulsa -23 1/2 Central Florida - I might be getting on the bandwagon late, but Tulsa is good and has been a covering machine (7-0 SU, 5-1 ATS). Most of those covers are of the comfortable, by more than a touchdown variety. They had their scare two weeks ago on the road against SMU and bounced back last week for a tidy 77 point outburst. They've scored less than 56 points only once since the opener and AVERAGE 64 at home. Central Florida has beaten only one DI team and has been held under 20 points in 4 of their 6 games. They'll probably get past the 20 point mark today, but they'll need many more than that to cover the number.

Texas / Oklahoma State OVER 67 1/2 - Two explosive offenses, ranked #7 and #10 nationally, that are both playing extremely well right now. Okie State is in a tough spot here, as the national spotlight is finally on and they roll into Austin to play what has unquestionably been the best team in the country to date. I expect them to handle it reasonably well, they almost have to play better than Mizzou did last week, and I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball and score points.

Kansas PK Texas Tech - As mentioned above, Texas Tech's defense ranks #103 against the pass and the more troubling this is they've done that against a piss poor schedule (bottom 15 in Division I SOS to this point). They've struggled the last two weeks, going to overtime against Nebraska in Lubbock and letting a terrible Texas A&M team hang around last week. They're offense is legitimate, and they'll score some points, but they haven't been playing well, and they're on the road against the first good team they've played. In addition, they've got Texas coming to town next week and could peek ahead, and Kansas is pretty tough in Lawrence (winning 13 in a row since the Dollar $igns game). The Jayhawks should be on the right end of a shootout today, as Tech has a lot of trends to overcome.