Breaking Down the Sweet 16

Well, the first two rounds of the tournament gave us the fewest upsets we've seen since the field expanded to 64. This is the first time every 1, 2, and 3 seed are playing the 2nd week, and it's the lowest cumulative seed count in the Sweet 16 ever. While that meant that arenas and sports bars across the country had most of their upset bids fall short, it gives us the potential for better basketball than we're used to seeing this coming week. When all four 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four last year for the first time ever, we were rewarded with a weekend of high quality basketball. We should see some excellent games this week with four 2-3 matchups and the guarantee that no 1 seed will make the Final Four without playing at least a 3 in the regional final.

Midwest:
You've got to give Louisville the best statistical chance of winning their region, since they're the least likely to lose their regional semi. They're 9 point favorites and await the winner of Michigan State and Kansas, a game which is a rematch of a January meeting between those teams in East Lansing, won fairly handily by the Spartans. Don't really like the number in that Louisville game, gun to my head I'd probably say Arizona +9. Louisville is quite a bit better as a team than Arizona, but the Wildcats feature a couple of sure-fire NBA players, so it's pretty hard to count them out. In this region, I'll dodge Louisville/Arizona and take Michigan State -1 1/2.

West:
UConn/Purdue and Missouri/Memphis. Both numbers feel about right. It will be interesting to see how a freshman point guard, even one as talented as Tyreke Evans, handles Missouri's defensive style. They'll have several days to prepare, but it's pretty hard to simlate in practice. Memphis has good enough ball handlers and a great defense, so they can afford some turnovers if they limit those that lead to Mizzou dunks and layups. Should be a terrific game. I'm not convinced that Purdue has the horses to play with UConn, but the Huskies looks great the first two rounds, which almost always leads a 1 seed to a battle in their regional semi. I'd probably lean UConn -6 1/2 and Mizzou +4 1/2 but don't know if I'll play either one.

East:
The team that made it through the first weekend while playing the worst was Pitt. Still, hardly anybody makes the Final Four without being tested at least once, so maybe that Oklahoma State game was Pitt's test and they'll come out firing in the regional. They play a Xavier team that's hard to figure out, as the Muskateers have beaten Memphis, Missouri, and LSU but have lost games to Richmond, Duquense, and Charlotte. Unfortunately, the losses have been pretty recent and the impressive wins awhile ago. Still, I was impressed with the way Xavier handled Wisconsin's slow it down, physical defensive style, and I think they've got enough to keep this one close. I'll take Xavier +7. The other side of the bracket gives us a good game with Villanova and Duke. I'm still not wholly impressed with Duke, especially defensively. This is a game they'll have to shoot well in to win and I think both teams will score a bunch. I'll take Duke/Villanova OVER 148.

South:
The top of the bracket features two of the highest scoring teams in college basketball, ranked 2 (UNC) and 12 (Gonzaga). It's a common misnomer that the way to beat Carolina is to slow them down, but it's totally wrong. In Carolina losses this year, they've given up 85, 92, 88, and 73 points (with the 73 being to the best defensive team in the ACC without Ty Lawson). Last year tell's a similar story, with winning opponents scoring 82, 89, and 84. You don't beat Carolina by slowing it down, you beat them by slowing THEM down but running at every opportunity. Gonzaga is built perfectly for that, even though they may not have the personnel to pull it off. Even still, give me Gonzaga +8 1/2. The winner of that advances to play the Syracuse/Oklahoma winner. I've been waiting all year to bet against OU when they got to a good team, because I'm still not convinced they're as good as they look. Syracuse's zone could at least kinda limit Blake Griffin, and I don't trust anybody else on that team. I'll take Syracuse +1 but they're the least likable team in all of college basketball, so I'll be rooting against myself.