March Madness: Round 1, Day 1

Memphis -20 Cal State Northridge - Bad team, in fact in my bracketology I had them as a 16 seed. Northridge hasn't been competitive against any decent teams, the Big West was down (even for them) this year, and Calpari has been able to spend the week telling his guys that they get no respect and that's why they didn't get a 1 seed. It wouldn't surprise me to see Memphis struggle offensively early, but they'll be dominant on defense. The Tigers getting to 65 or 70 points could mean an easy cover, they'll be that good defensively.

Butler +2 LSU - The way I evaluate mid-majors is by seeing how they did away from their building. Butler was 10-4 in road/neutral games, including a win at Xavier. Reasonably solid. LSU has as suspect of a resume as you'll see among major conference teams with as good of a record as they've had. These Tigers were 26-7 on the season, including a 13-3 run through the SEC regular season. But the downside to these guys is that they're just 3-4 against teams that made the tournament. Butler is a better team here...take the points.

Western Kentucky +5 Illinois - Illinois has scored more than 67 points twice since December. In that same time, they've been held under 60 points 8 times...so immediately, this looks like a team that you shouldn't be laying too many points with. The Hilltoppers are led in scoring by two experienced guards that came off the bench to play important minutes on last year's Sweet 16 team. These guys won't be intimidated by the bright lights and should make this something close to a one possession game. Wouldn't be totally shocking to see this be the 5-12 upset (though it's not my favorite 12 seed).

BYU -2 1/2 Texas A&M - A matchup of solid, if unspectacular teams. Neither one has anything you'd really consider to be a terrible loss. A&M has a couple of quality wins in Missouri and Texas, but both of those were at home. Their best win away from College Station is probably Nebraska. I really like Josh Carter and the things that he can do, but BYU has two guys that are around his size, one that plays exlucsively on the perimeter, that can help neutralize him. BYU also matches up well with the other perimeter spots, and I don't think you can trust A&M's interior guys to get it done. The Aggies have relied on perimeter play mostly and they've drawn a team with better perimeter talent.

UCLA -7 1/2 VCU - There are certain things about March Madness that I sometimes get swept up in, like always trying to figure out where the upsets will be. But something that almost always happens is the sexy upset pick getting boatraced. I have no idea what the percentages are and I couldn't find them in 45 seconds on ESPN, but this seems like the most popular upset pick among the 11-13 seeds. Now, UCLA is traveling 2700 miles, that's true, but they've seen the bullets fly in this deal...no one on the roster has ever not made the final four. The Bruins will be ready to play.

Washington -6 Mississippi State - Running through a 4 day conference tournament, every day fighting for your NCAA tournament life, takes a lot out of you. Last year, Georgia pulled off the feat, only to fall in the first round comfortably to Xavier. Syracuse pulled it off a three years ago, even earning a 5 seed for their trouble, only to be dropped in round 1 by 12 seeded Texas A&M. Washington is a pretty good team that got better as the year went along, having won 10 of their last 12, and they boast 8 wins against teams that are in the tournament field.

Leans:
Maryland +1 1/2
Texas -4
Northern Iowa +8 1/2