NCAA Football: Week 12

Georgia -9 1/2 Kentucky - The Wildcats have been a bettor's charm over the last several weeks, and they've spent the year getting a lot of sharp money behind them, which has all smeared the fact that they really don't have a good win. In a battle of teams trying to scratch out their 7th win to secure a bowl, when the superior team is at home, I'll lay the points. The Bulldogs have won 11 of the last 12 in this series and have covered 4 of the last 5 between the hedges.

South Florida -12 Louisville - Bounce back spot for South Florida, who had looked good all year until they laid an egg at Rutgers last week. They've got an extra couple of days to prepare, following the Thursday night game, and they get to host a Louisville team that is 0-5 on the road. The home team has won 6 straight in this series, including the Cardinals getting blown out in their last couple trips to Tampa.

Ole Miss -4 LSU - I've been waiting all year for a spot where the overratedness of LSU could make me some money...that day is today. The Rebels have had a bit of a disappointing season, and LSU has overachieved, but Ole Miss is still the better team in this matchup. Preseason, this line would have been double-digits, and I'm not convinced that either one of these teams has shown enough different from projection to move it a touchdown off of that. So, I'll play the value. The Rebels are 7-1 against the number in their last 8 against LSU.

Kansas State +17 Nebraska - The Cornhuskers are obviously the better team here, but this is a bunch of points. Both teams are ground oriented offensively, and Nebraska's strategy in general is the run the ball and play defense, so much so that they haven't won a Big 12 game by this number all year. K-State will employ the strategy they used against KU which will limit possession count and shorten the game. They also won't beat themselves (19th nationally in turnover margin) and can attack Nebraska in special teams (6th nationally on kick returns). The Wildcats have covered 6 of the last 9 in this series.

Connecticut +7 Notre Dame - The Fighting Irish are against among the most overrated teams in the country, at just 3-7 against the number. On the flip side, UConn as much better than their (SU) record indicates, as they've been in every game, including providing scares to both Pitt and Cincy, and they lead he nation in record against the spread at 7-1. Charlie Weis is the other jumbo sized coach nationally that's about to lose his job, which brings me to.....

Texas -27 Kansas - The Jayhawks are a mess. Picked by many (including myself) to win the Big 12 North, they've suffering through their most disappointing "high expectation" season since '96. Add in the rumblings about Mangino's job, and the unlikelihood of the very players that hate him rallying around him, and KU is in a tough spot. It gets worse. Texas's early season troubles have been erased, and they're finally playing good football on both sides of the ball. They're a bad matchup for KU, anyway...having ended it by halftime in each of the last 2 in this series in Austin and covering 6 of the last 7 overall. This is going to suck.

Leans:

Oklahoma -6
North Carolina +3 1/2
Michigan +12
Virginia Tech -21