NFL: Week 11

New England -10 NY Jets - The Jets have had the Patriots number recently, but their win over the Pats in week 2 was the last time they've played well (not counting pounding Oakland, which really shouldn't count). They catch New England in a bounce back spot here after the disappointing Sunday night loss against the Colts. An agitated Patriot team against a struggling Jets team, means you go against the matchup trend here (Jets have covered 3 of the last 5 in Foxboro).

San Diego -5 Denver - If you read this blog regularly, you'll know I really don't believe in the Broncos. At all. They've now lost 3 straight and host a (relatively) hot Charger team. I'll continue to be on the other side until they pull out of this slide. San Diego is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 in this series.

Indianapolis -1 1/2 Baltimore - This number feels like a classic Vegas trap, but I'm falling for it. Peyton is playing as well as he has in his career, but Baltimore is a pretty good (if underachieving) team. Still, you have to like Indy laying almost no points until they eventually get beat. Baltimore is still pretty effective against the run, but they're no longer elite against the pass (13th in the league). The Colts have won and covered 5 straight in this series.

Seattle +11 Minnesota - This one just feels like too many points, but I don't have any real insight. I get the impression that the Vikings are a little overrated, but they're going to cruise to some wins and a nice shiny record before Favre has a meltdown and rips their fans' hearts out. It's going to happen.

NY Giants -7 Atlanta - Atlanta is a team that I think is better than their records, but Matt Ryan is suffering a bit of a sophomore slump and he'll face the #2 passing defense in the league today. They travel to a tough spot, as the Giants have lost 4 straight and have had the BYE week to get ready. The Falcons are 1-4 SU on the road, and the Giants have covered the last won and covered their last 2 against Atlanta.

Leans:

Oakland +9 1/2
Buffalo +8 1/2