NFL: Week 10

Atlanta -2 Carolina - You can pretty much repeat what I wrote about the Falcons game last week, except they're now 6-2 ATS, and they aren't playing a team coming off a BYE. Atlanta still doesn't have a bad loss and have shown a good ability to win the games they should. Carolina has played better the last two weeks, but I'm still not sold on them. Atlanta has covered 3 of the last 4 in this series, and the Panthers are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS at home this season.

Jacksonville +7 NY Jets - I don't really think the Jags are very good, but the Jets have looked impressive exactly once since the hot start early, and that once was against the Raiders. The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite and have lost 6 of those outright, including 2 outright losses as more than a touchdown favorite. Jacksonville has covered 5 straight in this series.

Miami -10 Tampa Bay - The debut of Josh Freeman went better than I expected last week, but he was aided greatly by two DST touchdowns. The Packers outgained them by more than 100, just couldn't overcome 3 turnovers and a blocked punt. Miami is as good of a 3-5 team as there is...the losses are all to good teams and they've had the misfortune of playing both Indy and New Orleans at home. So, expect a bounce-back game for the Dolphins after last week's loss at NE and expect the Freeman era to regress to the mean a little bit.

Leans:

Dallas -3: GB not good, but Dallas not great on 2nd week of back-to-back roadies
Kansas City +2: I guess KC is THAT BAD, but Oakland laying points is funny
Washington +4: NFL's top pass defense gets a shot at Kyle Orton. I still don't believe in Denver