NCAA Football: Week 1

Texas -31 Rice - Texas has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series with all 5 of those covers being wins by 41 or more points. Rice is occasionally interesting when they have a good team, but they run the spread and make no attempt to shorten the game and the athlete difference is so big here that it'll get ugly. I think Texas will have a borderline great defense this year, which keeps me from being scared away by such a big number.

UConn +3 Michigan - The Huskies return an assortment of starters from the team that led all of college football in record against the number last year (at 10-2). They're also unlikely to be intimidated by the Big House, sporting a win at Notre Dame and a narrow loss at Cincinnati last season during a run that left them perfect against the spread away from home. UConn's 5 SU losses were by a combined 15 points, and they led in the 4th quarter in 4 of those games. Michigan should be improved, this play is more about how good I think UConn can be...think '06 Jayhawks or '07 Cincinnati as a team that was close right before putting it all together the next year. Darkhorse BCS bowl candidate here.

Oklahoma State -17 Washington State - WSU is bad until they prove otherwise. They didn't show any real flashes of improvement last year under 2nd year coach Paul Wulff. They do return a bunch of starters, while Okie State lost a ton, but this is another situation where the talent disparity is large. Gundy generally has his team playing well early, as the Cowboys have won 18 of their last 19 September games in Stillwater.

K-State -2 UCLA - The Cats got better as the year went along last season and were pretty tough in Manhattan. This roster having a year under their belt in Snyder's system will help, and their running game is good and will give a talented but inexperienced UCLA defense a stout test.

Leans:

Mizzou -12 Illinois - Gary Pinkel is 5-0 ATS against Illinois since taking over in Columbia.

Purdue +11 Notre Dame - Leading rusher for Boilers injured...scared me away.