Saturday, September 25, 2010

NCAA: Week 4

Georgia PK Mississippi State - The battle of the Bulldogs usually is a couple touchdown spread, but a falter UGa team and a slightly resurgent MSU squad has made these teams pretty even. Georgia is just the better team here. Both of these teams are better on the road, over the last 4 years MSU is just 8-14 at home while Georgia is a strong 15-10 when they venture outside the hedges.

South Carolina +3 Auburn - The Tigers have been blessed so far by winning two close ballgames, including pulling a rabbit out of the hat against Clemson...but they haven't played a defense like South Carolina's, yet. Auburn was a really good home team last year, going 5-2 ATS, but that broke a pretty long funk of home futility against the number (they'd covered just 8 of their last 21 at home before last season). They may be back to struggling there, failing to cover so far this season in their first two tries.

Texas -15 1/2 UCLA - The Bruins are a run oriented team that just happens to roll into Austin to face the number one rushing defense in the country. The Longhorn schedule has a little bit to do with that, with plenty of spread offenses on it, but there's no reason to think that isn't legit since they led the country last year in yards per carry allowed. UCLA has covered just 1 of their last 5 as a road dog.

UNLV -10 1/2 New Mexico - The Lobos are just that bad. UNLV has covered 2 straight in the series.

Leans:

Boston College +4 1/2
Temple +14
Alabama -7
Cincinnati +14

No comments: