NFL: Week 1

Jacksonville -3 Denver - The Broncos are going to be bad, kids...really bad. Even a banged up Jags team has enough. J'ville was admittedly awful against the spread last year, but they have covered both recent meetings against Denver. And I think they almost have to be better, whereas the 8-8 Denver pulled out of their asses last year was about their max.

Carolina +7 NY Giants - The Giants don't strike me as the sort of team that should be the biggest favorite of the weekend over anybody. The Giants were just 2-6 against the number at home last year, while Carolina squeaked out a profitable 5-3 ATS in roadies.

Miami -3 Buffalo - If you believe that the Dolphins are a team that'll be a fringe playoff contender, they pretty much have to win this game. I say they play well and get it done. The Fish have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series.

Green Bay -3 Philadelphia - The Pack have a lot of firepower and, while I think the Eagles will be pretty good, breaking in a new QB makes this a tough spot. Green Bay was outstanding on the road last year, covering in 6 of their 8 roadies, including winning 5 of those outright. These teams haven't met since '07, a Packers win as a home dog.

San Francisco -3 Seattle - The 49ers are the best team in their division, and I'll need to see something out of the Seahawks before I get worried about that home crowd.

I'm laying a lot of points on the road, but hey...it's week 1.