I've really never liked Trey Hillman. He wasn't anywhere near the top of my list of candidates to manage the Royals when they were filling that position before last season. I liked him even less when he sat his team down behind home plate after a spring training game and dressed them down for baserunning mistakes in front of fans (which ended up being really ironic because the Royals were a terrible baserunning team last year). I don't like that he talks up the importance of on-base percentage, perhaps the single most important statistic in all of sports, while running guys like Jose Guillen out there in the cleanup spot. I don't like that he ignores years of statistical evidence* in favor of one week of exhibition baseball when picking Kyle Farnsworth over Juan Cruz as the 8th inning guy when breaking camp.
*: Juan Cruz posseses a career ERA that's over a half-run lower than Farnsworth, with a much better WHIP, a similar strikeout rate, a much lower rate of HRs surrendered, and Cruz's numbers are improving. Simply, there is absolutely no way to justify Cruz NOT being the 8th inning bridge to Soria from the instant he signed. I thought Moneyball made the "he looked better in meaningless games in Arizona in March" evaluation methodology obsolete. Apparently not in Kansas City.
So, how long does it for such a minor personnel matter to bite the Royals in the ass? I'm glad you asked. It took two-thirds of an inning. Gil Meche pitched a gem on opening day, handed the ball over to the bullpen, and Farnworth promptly gave up a 3 run, game losing bomb to Jim Thome. So, Hillman can't be stupid enough to screw the bullpen organization up again right? It would appear not. In game 2, Cruz goes the 7th and 8th, Soria closes. Last weekend, Cruz goes the 8th in a close game, Farnsworth draws work in a 4 run game. But, Hillman showed us beyond a shadow of a doubt today, that he is indeed too stupid to handle something as complex as who the f**k should pitch.
So, here we sit, tied atop the AL Central at 7-5, with two games totally pissed away by our manager's misuse of the bullpen. This team is good enough to compete. The starting pitching has been terrific, the bullpen is light's out when it's used, you know, at least as well as a trained monkey would do it. The bats started a little slow against some pretty good pitching but have started getting it done more against a broader cross-section of quality. Yeah, the talent is good enough to compete. The manager isn't.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
Bracketology Redux
So, an 8:40 tip for a guy with no job leaves a lot of time to twiddle the thumbs during the day. So, I figured I could kill a little time by revisiting my bracketology projections and see how I did.
Teams Picked Correctly = 64
Seeds Picked Exactly = 27
Seeds Picked Within 1 = 57
Seeds Missed by 2 = 5
Seeds Missed by 3 or more = 2
So, as grading goes, I didn't get as many seeds exactly right as any of the major bracketology folks, but I tied The Bracket Project among the major ones for most within one seed at 57. Of the 7 teams that I missed by more than 1, 3 of those were higher seeds than they ended up getting but they lost, giving me a bit of redemption (Boston College, Utah, California). The two teams I missed badly on were Utah State (Me=7, Committee=11) and Boston College (Me=10, Committee=7). My QPI score (see bracketology grading link here for comparison with major bracket people) was 53.
Not the best on the planet, but I didn't do too bad for my first year as an (admitted) dork.
Teams Picked Correctly = 64
Seeds Picked Exactly = 27
Seeds Picked Within 1 = 57
Seeds Missed by 2 = 5
Seeds Missed by 3 or more = 2
So, as grading goes, I didn't get as many seeds exactly right as any of the major bracketology folks, but I tied The Bracket Project among the major ones for most within one seed at 57. Of the 7 teams that I missed by more than 1, 3 of those were higher seeds than they ended up getting but they lost, giving me a bit of redemption (Boston College, Utah, California). The two teams I missed badly on were Utah State (Me=7, Committee=11) and Boston College (Me=10, Committee=7). My QPI score (see bracketology grading link here for comparison with major bracket people) was 53.
Not the best on the planet, but I didn't do too bad for my first year as an (admitted) dork.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Breaking Down the Sweet 16
Well, the first two rounds of the tournament gave us the fewest upsets we've seen since the field expanded to 64. This is the first time every 1, 2, and 3 seed are playing the 2nd week, and it's the lowest cumulative seed count in the Sweet 16 ever. While that meant that arenas and sports bars across the country had most of their upset bids fall short, it gives us the potential for better basketball than we're used to seeing this coming week. When all four 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four last year for the first time ever, we were rewarded with a weekend of high quality basketball. We should see some excellent games this week with four 2-3 matchups and the guarantee that no 1 seed will make the Final Four without playing at least a 3 in the regional final.
Midwest:
You've got to give Louisville the best statistical chance of winning their region, since they're the least likely to lose their regional semi. They're 9 point favorites and await the winner of Michigan State and Kansas, a game which is a rematch of a January meeting between those teams in East Lansing, won fairly handily by the Spartans. Don't really like the number in that Louisville game, gun to my head I'd probably say Arizona +9. Louisville is quite a bit better as a team than Arizona, but the Wildcats feature a couple of sure-fire NBA players, so it's pretty hard to count them out. In this region, I'll dodge Louisville/Arizona and take Michigan State -1 1/2.
West:
UConn/Purdue and Missouri/Memphis. Both numbers feel about right. It will be interesting to see how a freshman point guard, even one as talented as Tyreke Evans, handles Missouri's defensive style. They'll have several days to prepare, but it's pretty hard to simlate in practice. Memphis has good enough ball handlers and a great defense, so they can afford some turnovers if they limit those that lead to Mizzou dunks and layups. Should be a terrific game. I'm not convinced that Purdue has the horses to play with UConn, but the Huskies looks great the first two rounds, which almost always leads a 1 seed to a battle in their regional semi. I'd probably lean UConn -6 1/2 and Mizzou +4 1/2 but don't know if I'll play either one.
East:
The team that made it through the first weekend while playing the worst was Pitt. Still, hardly anybody makes the Final Four without being tested at least once, so maybe that Oklahoma State game was Pitt's test and they'll come out firing in the regional. They play a Xavier team that's hard to figure out, as the Muskateers have beaten Memphis, Missouri, and LSU but have lost games to Richmond, Duquense, and Charlotte. Unfortunately, the losses have been pretty recent and the impressive wins awhile ago. Still, I was impressed with the way Xavier handled Wisconsin's slow it down, physical defensive style, and I think they've got enough to keep this one close. I'll take Xavier +7. The other side of the bracket gives us a good game with Villanova and Duke. I'm still not wholly impressed with Duke, especially defensively. This is a game they'll have to shoot well in to win and I think both teams will score a bunch. I'll take Duke/Villanova OVER 148.
South:
The top of the bracket features two of the highest scoring teams in college basketball, ranked 2 (UNC) and 12 (Gonzaga). It's a common misnomer that the way to beat Carolina is to slow them down, but it's totally wrong. In Carolina losses this year, they've given up 85, 92, 88, and 73 points (with the 73 being to the best defensive team in the ACC without Ty Lawson). Last year tell's a similar story, with winning opponents scoring 82, 89, and 84. You don't beat Carolina by slowing it down, you beat them by slowing THEM down but running at every opportunity. Gonzaga is built perfectly for that, even though they may not have the personnel to pull it off. Even still, give me Gonzaga +8 1/2. The winner of that advances to play the Syracuse/Oklahoma winner. I've been waiting all year to bet against OU when they got to a good team, because I'm still not convinced they're as good as they look. Syracuse's zone could at least kinda limit Blake Griffin, and I don't trust anybody else on that team. I'll take Syracuse +1 but they're the least likable team in all of college basketball, so I'll be rooting against myself.
Midwest:
You've got to give Louisville the best statistical chance of winning their region, since they're the least likely to lose their regional semi. They're 9 point favorites and await the winner of Michigan State and Kansas, a game which is a rematch of a January meeting between those teams in East Lansing, won fairly handily by the Spartans. Don't really like the number in that Louisville game, gun to my head I'd probably say Arizona +9. Louisville is quite a bit better as a team than Arizona, but the Wildcats feature a couple of sure-fire NBA players, so it's pretty hard to count them out. In this region, I'll dodge Louisville/Arizona and take Michigan State -1 1/2.
West:
UConn/Purdue and Missouri/Memphis. Both numbers feel about right. It will be interesting to see how a freshman point guard, even one as talented as Tyreke Evans, handles Missouri's defensive style. They'll have several days to prepare, but it's pretty hard to simlate in practice. Memphis has good enough ball handlers and a great defense, so they can afford some turnovers if they limit those that lead to Mizzou dunks and layups. Should be a terrific game. I'm not convinced that Purdue has the horses to play with UConn, but the Huskies looks great the first two rounds, which almost always leads a 1 seed to a battle in their regional semi. I'd probably lean UConn -6 1/2 and Mizzou +4 1/2 but don't know if I'll play either one.
East:
The team that made it through the first weekend while playing the worst was Pitt. Still, hardly anybody makes the Final Four without being tested at least once, so maybe that Oklahoma State game was Pitt's test and they'll come out firing in the regional. They play a Xavier team that's hard to figure out, as the Muskateers have beaten Memphis, Missouri, and LSU but have lost games to Richmond, Duquense, and Charlotte. Unfortunately, the losses have been pretty recent and the impressive wins awhile ago. Still, I was impressed with the way Xavier handled Wisconsin's slow it down, physical defensive style, and I think they've got enough to keep this one close. I'll take Xavier +7. The other side of the bracket gives us a good game with Villanova and Duke. I'm still not wholly impressed with Duke, especially defensively. This is a game they'll have to shoot well in to win and I think both teams will score a bunch. I'll take Duke/Villanova OVER 148.
South:
The top of the bracket features two of the highest scoring teams in college basketball, ranked 2 (UNC) and 12 (Gonzaga). It's a common misnomer that the way to beat Carolina is to slow them down, but it's totally wrong. In Carolina losses this year, they've given up 85, 92, 88, and 73 points (with the 73 being to the best defensive team in the ACC without Ty Lawson). Last year tell's a similar story, with winning opponents scoring 82, 89, and 84. You don't beat Carolina by slowing it down, you beat them by slowing THEM down but running at every opportunity. Gonzaga is built perfectly for that, even though they may not have the personnel to pull it off. Even still, give me Gonzaga +8 1/2. The winner of that advances to play the Syracuse/Oklahoma winner. I've been waiting all year to bet against OU when they got to a good team, because I'm still not convinced they're as good as they look. Syracuse's zone could at least kinda limit Blake Griffin, and I don't trust anybody else on that team. I'll take Syracuse +1 but they're the least likable team in all of college basketball, so I'll be rooting against myself.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
NCAA Tournament: More Round 2
Kansas / Dayton UNDER 133 - Two teams that are much better defensively than they are offensively. Collins and Aldrich won't have as easy of a time getting to the basket as they did in the first game. Dayton's point guard is a playmaker that you can play off of (worse shooter than Dogus Balbay), so I'd expect whoever's guarding him to sag off and congest the lane...low scoring affair.
Michigan State -4 Southern Cal - The Trojans have played well over the last couple weeks, but wins over UCLA and Boston College aren't looking as good with the tournament performance of the Bruins (squeaker over VCU before getting run out of the gym against Villanova) and the ACC. This is a game that should be pretty close for most of it but ultimately Michigan State is quite a bit better team and should pull away in the 2nd half.
Wisconsin +3 1/2 Xavier - Mid major teams, even from conferences as good as the A10, tend to struggle with slow, plodding, phyiscal teams like Wisconsin. The Badgers did a nice job against Florida State in the first round, and are probably due to shoot it a little better than the 40% they put up in that game. Xavier has been a team that you can keep from scoring with tough defense, and Wisconsin will have some success at that today.
Leans:
Cleveland State +2 1/2
Missouri -3
Michigan State -4 Southern Cal - The Trojans have played well over the last couple weeks, but wins over UCLA and Boston College aren't looking as good with the tournament performance of the Bruins (squeaker over VCU before getting run out of the gym against Villanova) and the ACC. This is a game that should be pretty close for most of it but ultimately Michigan State is quite a bit better team and should pull away in the 2nd half.
Wisconsin +3 1/2 Xavier - Mid major teams, even from conferences as good as the A10, tend to struggle with slow, plodding, phyiscal teams like Wisconsin. The Badgers did a nice job against Florida State in the first round, and are probably due to shoot it a little better than the 40% they put up in that game. Xavier has been a team that you can keep from scoring with tough defense, and Wisconsin will have some success at that today.
Leans:
Cleveland State +2 1/2
Missouri -3
Saturday, March 21, 2009
NCAA Tournament: Round 2
No game writeups today after the 12 hour beer and basketball marathon yesterday, but here are the picks.
Texas +8
Western Kentucky +11
Washington -1 1/2
Leans:
Maryland +9
North Carolina -11 1/2
Interesting tournament so far, and we finally got some great finished last night. The middle of the ACC has not shown well, with Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College all losing as a higher seed. Maryland pulled the minor upset, while Duke and Carolina haven't played anyone, yet. The Big 12 hasn't lost a team, yet...but I wouldn't expect that to last much longer. Still, getting all 6 teams to the 2nd round is an accomplishment. Pac 10 and Big Ten have both been a mixed bag. The SEC really does suck, with only one team left in the tournament. Most surprising game so far has to be Cleveland State over Wake. Cleveland State had to spring an upset over Butler in the Horizon League tournament to get in the dance, but it's a team that can play...they're just a little inconsistent. Buried in the losses to K-State and Wright State is a win against Syracuse. It's really a pretty decent team, which Wake apparently wasn't ready for.
Texas +8
Western Kentucky +11
Washington -1 1/2
Leans:
Maryland +9
North Carolina -11 1/2
Interesting tournament so far, and we finally got some great finished last night. The middle of the ACC has not shown well, with Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College all losing as a higher seed. Maryland pulled the minor upset, while Duke and Carolina haven't played anyone, yet. The Big 12 hasn't lost a team, yet...but I wouldn't expect that to last much longer. Still, getting all 6 teams to the 2nd round is an accomplishment. Pac 10 and Big Ten have both been a mixed bag. The SEC really does suck, with only one team left in the tournament. Most surprising game so far has to be Cleveland State over Wake. Cleveland State had to spring an upset over Butler in the Horizon League tournament to get in the dance, but it's a team that can play...they're just a little inconsistent. Buried in the losses to K-State and Wright State is a win against Syracuse. It's really a pretty decent team, which Wake apparently wasn't ready for.
Friday, March 20, 2009
March Madness: Round 1, Day 2
Florida State -2 1/2 Wisconsin - Florida State is setup as the sort of team that could make a little run in this tournament...really good defensively (7th nationally in FG% defense), they've got a borderline superstar senior guard in Toney Douglas, and they can create transition offense to survive periods when shots aren't falling. Wisconsin is a slow it down team, ranking 334th out of 344 teams, so this will be the sort of game that will make you want to gouge your eyes out if you're rooting for the Seminoles, but the Badgers were borderline not worthy of making the tournament and Big Ten teams were 1-3 against the number yesterday.
Arizona +1 1/2 Utah - Arizona doesn't deserve to be in the tournament, but they've been hearing that all week and will come out fired up. They'll also have the two best players on the court in Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger. When those guys play like they care, Arizona is decent. In the tournament, they should probably do that. Utah is a good but not great team. They were 4-4 against tournament teams (but that includes a Morgan State win) and 0-3 on the road in those games.
Leans:
Arizona State -5 1/2
Siena +3 1/2
Tennessee -2
Arizona +1 1/2 Utah - Arizona doesn't deserve to be in the tournament, but they've been hearing that all week and will come out fired up. They'll also have the two best players on the court in Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger. When those guys play like they care, Arizona is decent. In the tournament, they should probably do that. Utah is a good but not great team. They were 4-4 against tournament teams (but that includes a Morgan State win) and 0-3 on the road in those games.
Leans:
Arizona State -5 1/2
Siena +3 1/2
Tennessee -2
Thursday, March 19, 2009
March Madness: Round 1, Day 1
Memphis -20 Cal State Northridge - Bad team, in fact in my bracketology I had them as a 16 seed. Northridge hasn't been competitive against any decent teams, the Big West was down (even for them) this year, and Calpari has been able to spend the week telling his guys that they get no respect and that's why they didn't get a 1 seed. It wouldn't surprise me to see Memphis struggle offensively early, but they'll be dominant on defense. The Tigers getting to 65 or 70 points could mean an easy cover, they'll be that good defensively.
Butler +2 LSU - The way I evaluate mid-majors is by seeing how they did away from their building. Butler was 10-4 in road/neutral games, including a win at Xavier. Reasonably solid. LSU has as suspect of a resume as you'll see among major conference teams with as good of a record as they've had. These Tigers were 26-7 on the season, including a 13-3 run through the SEC regular season. But the downside to these guys is that they're just 3-4 against teams that made the tournament. Butler is a better team here...take the points.
Western Kentucky +5 Illinois - Illinois has scored more than 67 points twice since December. In that same time, they've been held under 60 points 8 times...so immediately, this looks like a team that you shouldn't be laying too many points with. The Hilltoppers are led in scoring by two experienced guards that came off the bench to play important minutes on last year's Sweet 16 team. These guys won't be intimidated by the bright lights and should make this something close to a one possession game. Wouldn't be totally shocking to see this be the 5-12 upset (though it's not my favorite 12 seed).
BYU -2 1/2 Texas A&M - A matchup of solid, if unspectacular teams. Neither one has anything you'd really consider to be a terrible loss. A&M has a couple of quality wins in Missouri and Texas, but both of those were at home. Their best win away from College Station is probably Nebraska. I really like Josh Carter and the things that he can do, but BYU has two guys that are around his size, one that plays exlucsively on the perimeter, that can help neutralize him. BYU also matches up well with the other perimeter spots, and I don't think you can trust A&M's interior guys to get it done. The Aggies have relied on perimeter play mostly and they've drawn a team with better perimeter talent.
UCLA -7 1/2 VCU - There are certain things about March Madness that I sometimes get swept up in, like always trying to figure out where the upsets will be. But something that almost always happens is the sexy upset pick getting boatraced. I have no idea what the percentages are and I couldn't find them in 45 seconds on ESPN, but this seems like the most popular upset pick among the 11-13 seeds. Now, UCLA is traveling 2700 miles, that's true, but they've seen the bullets fly in this deal...no one on the roster has ever not made the final four. The Bruins will be ready to play.
Washington -6 Mississippi State - Running through a 4 day conference tournament, every day fighting for your NCAA tournament life, takes a lot out of you. Last year, Georgia pulled off the feat, only to fall in the first round comfortably to Xavier. Syracuse pulled it off a three years ago, even earning a 5 seed for their trouble, only to be dropped in round 1 by 12 seeded Texas A&M. Washington is a pretty good team that got better as the year went along, having won 10 of their last 12, and they boast 8 wins against teams that are in the tournament field.
Leans:
Maryland +1 1/2
Texas -4
Northern Iowa +8 1/2
Butler +2 LSU - The way I evaluate mid-majors is by seeing how they did away from their building. Butler was 10-4 in road/neutral games, including a win at Xavier. Reasonably solid. LSU has as suspect of a resume as you'll see among major conference teams with as good of a record as they've had. These Tigers were 26-7 on the season, including a 13-3 run through the SEC regular season. But the downside to these guys is that they're just 3-4 against teams that made the tournament. Butler is a better team here...take the points.
Western Kentucky +5 Illinois - Illinois has scored more than 67 points twice since December. In that same time, they've been held under 60 points 8 times...so immediately, this looks like a team that you shouldn't be laying too many points with. The Hilltoppers are led in scoring by two experienced guards that came off the bench to play important minutes on last year's Sweet 16 team. These guys won't be intimidated by the bright lights and should make this something close to a one possession game. Wouldn't be totally shocking to see this be the 5-12 upset (though it's not my favorite 12 seed).
BYU -2 1/2 Texas A&M - A matchup of solid, if unspectacular teams. Neither one has anything you'd really consider to be a terrible loss. A&M has a couple of quality wins in Missouri and Texas, but both of those were at home. Their best win away from College Station is probably Nebraska. I really like Josh Carter and the things that he can do, but BYU has two guys that are around his size, one that plays exlucsively on the perimeter, that can help neutralize him. BYU also matches up well with the other perimeter spots, and I don't think you can trust A&M's interior guys to get it done. The Aggies have relied on perimeter play mostly and they've drawn a team with better perimeter talent.
UCLA -7 1/2 VCU - There are certain things about March Madness that I sometimes get swept up in, like always trying to figure out where the upsets will be. But something that almost always happens is the sexy upset pick getting boatraced. I have no idea what the percentages are and I couldn't find them in 45 seconds on ESPN, but this seems like the most popular upset pick among the 11-13 seeds. Now, UCLA is traveling 2700 miles, that's true, but they've seen the bullets fly in this deal...no one on the roster has ever not made the final four. The Bruins will be ready to play.
Washington -6 Mississippi State - Running through a 4 day conference tournament, every day fighting for your NCAA tournament life, takes a lot out of you. Last year, Georgia pulled off the feat, only to fall in the first round comfortably to Xavier. Syracuse pulled it off a three years ago, even earning a 5 seed for their trouble, only to be dropped in round 1 by 12 seeded Texas A&M. Washington is a pretty good team that got better as the year went along, having won 10 of their last 12, and they boast 8 wins against teams that are in the tournament field.
Leans:
Maryland +1 1/2
Texas -4
Northern Iowa +8 1/2
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