NCAA Week 10

Florida -6 1/2 Georgia - Don't be fooled by the big road win the Bulldogs pulled off last week, that was against an extraordinarily overrated LSU team. Georgia has covered only 1 of their last 4, including a SU beatdown at the hands of Alabama and a struggle between the hedges against a bad Tennessee team. On the flip side, Florida has been a bettor's dream, going 6-1 against the number and playing particularly pissed off after losing to Ole Miss. This is the best team in the SEC, they have a realistic shot at playing for the national title, and they'll play very well in the World's Largest Cocktail Party.

Georgia Tech - 2 Florida State - I'm not convinced on Florida State, and apparently I'm not the only one. It's pretty rare that a team ranked 15 or 16 goes on the road against an unranked team and is an underdog. The Seminoles opened as a 1 point favorite and money rolled in on the Yellow Jackets, who are in a bounce-back spot. The last time Georgia Tech played coming off a loss they won by 31 as an 8 point favorite, and they're 5-1 ATS on the year, with 3 of those wins coming by more than a score.

Kansas / Kansas State OVER 68 - Two offenses that are pretty efficient, ranked #17 and #27 in total offense, go against two defenses that can't do crap about it, ranked #88 and #109 in total defense. The Jayhawks probably aren't as bad defensively as they looked last week, but they really aren't very good, either. K-State's defense is an undersized bunch that can regularly give up ball-control possessions along with the occasional big play, but they're special teams can kick in with scores and short fields. There will be lots of scoring in this one.

Northwestern +7 1/2 Minnesota - Speaking of teams I'm not convinced on, as can happen in crappy conferences like the Big Ten, the Golden Gophers have rolled through their schedule playing only one ranked team (and losing). Now, does that mean that the Wildcats are the team that will come in and end the dream? Not exactly, but Minnesota shouldn't be getting more than a touchdown here. Minnesota has covered 6 straight and has picked up a lot of the betting public, which is how this line moved across the magic 7 number. It should be low scoring and close, so I'll take the points in this spot.

Tulsa -7 Arkansas - Arkansas has had the hell beaten out of them by every good team they've played. Meanwhile, Tulsa rolls into town 6-1 against the number and piling up points like crazy. These teams have different motivations here. For Arkansas, this is a diversion from SEC play against a small conference squad which, even though Tulsa is ranked, it a tough spot to get up in. Tulsa sees this is an opportunity to spank a BCS conference team in their house to gain some credibility. Tulsa's offense is legit, currently leading the nation in total offense, and will score some points in this game. This matchup will hinge on what happens when the Razorbacks have the ball. They'll have some success, as Tulsa's defense isn't very good, but they'll have trouble keeping pace.