Bracketology

With more and more geeks trying their hand at their own bracket these days, it seemed like a good year to admit that I'm one of those geeks. So, I wasted a couple hours of my life the last day or two projecting the field. I tried to follow all of the rules that the committee has to (Memphis can't play in the south, no conference matchups without upsets, teams can be moved up or down a line from their natural seed for geography, etc). It's virtually impossible to get the actual matchups right, so I'm hoping that I've got most teams within one seed of where they actually fall and that I don't miss more than 2-3 fates of the bubble teams. We'll see how it goes. Here's the projection....

East:
1. North Carolina - Mike Patrick will overtly root for them on air at least once (see FSU tape).
2. Oklahoma - Still on the two line because two losses will be written off to Blake Griffin injury.
3. Syracuse - I'm going to assume they get that 3 seed bounce from the Big East tourney.
4. Villanova - Only 6-7 against the top 50...but 5-5 against the top 25, using Sagarin.
5. Xavier
6. Clemson
7. Butler
8. Tennessee
9. Oklahoma State
10. Michigan
11. San Diego State
12. Northern Iowa
13. Western Kentucky
14. Akron
15. Morgan State
16. Cal State Northridge

South:
1. Louisville - Only BCS team to win conference and conference tourney.
2. Duke - Early exit candidate against whoever ends up being their 7/10 winner.
3. Missouri - Round of applause for their first regular or postseason Big 12 title in any men's sport.
4. Wake Forest - Can't get a good feel for this team. Anywhere from 3-5 wouldn't surprise me.
5. West Virginia
6. LSU
7. Utah State
8. Ohio State
9. California
10. Boston College
11. USC
12. St. Mary's
13. American
14. Stephen F Austin
15. East Tennessee State
16. Chattanooga / Alabama State winner

Midwest:
1. Pittsburgh - Early exit in Big East tourney is a concern...two wins over UConn keep them here.
2. Michigan State - A 2 seed close to home is nearly as good as being shipped out west as a 1.
3. Kansas - Playing terrible. Body of work (10-5 against top 50) will prop them up.
4. Florida State - Playing great. Athletic, defends well, superstar senior guard...all the ingredients.
5. Illinois
6. Arizona State
7. Marquette
8. Minnesota
9. Siena
10. Dayton
11. Wisconsin
12. Temple
13. North Dakota State
14. Robert Morris
15. Binghamton
16. Morehead State

West:
1. Connecticut - Last 1 seed, so I've got them shipped out west. Injury to Dyson is probably fatal.
2. Memphis - Will be a 1 seed. The 2-3 record against the top 50 will make it a joke, though.
3. Washington - Pac 10 champs have improved greatly over the course of the season.
4. Gonzaga - Quietly had another great season. Do they FINALLY make a run as a favorite?
5. UCLA
6. Purdue
7. Utah
8. Texas
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Maryland
12. VCU
13. Cleveland State
14. Portland State
15. Cornell
16. Radford

Last 4 In:
Maryland
Wisconsin
San Diego State
St. Mary's

Last 4 Out:
Creighton
Arizona
Penn State
Tulsa

Contingency Planning:
If Mississippi State beats Tennessee in the SEC final, they're swapped in for St. Mary's.
If UT-San Antonio beats Stephen F Austin, they get the bid and are swapped down to the 15 line for Morgan State.
I don't think the ACC or Big Ten final has much effect on seeding. Clemson, with a very similar resume to Florida State, made a nice run in the ACC last year and ended as a 5 seed.

Let the Madness begin....

Edited: Swapped Syracuse and Villanova in the East.