NCAA Football: Week 7

Texas -3 Oklahoma - Both teams have spent much of the season so far looking a bit lethargic, with OU suffering a couple of close losses to decent teams and Texas beating everybody their supposed to…with mixed opinions on how good the team has been. But, the Sooners were doing it without their Heisman trophy winning quarterback, and the Longhorns haven't REALLY had an occasion to give an inspired performance. Neither offense is totally trustable, after OU replaced 4 starters on the offensive line and Texas struggles to find a consistent rushing attack to relieve some pressure off Colt McCoy. And both defenses have looked good, though it's a little hard to tell with Texas how much of that is schedule related, with UT ranked 4th and OU 9th nationally (1st and 3rd against the run, respectively). Both teams will be able to get pressure with their front 4 and both QBs will have to make quick decisions getting rid of the football. And so the game comes down to which QB has a go-to receiver, and that would be Texas with Jordan Shipley. A healthy Jermaine Gresham is worth about a touchdown and would have made OU a bit of a favorite here, but without him…OU doesn't have a reliable way to convert third downs through the air, and the UT front 7 is too tough to count on the necessary rushing yardage. The Horns make more big plays and win by a couple scores. Texas is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series and OU has covered just 2 of their last 11 on neutral fields if you exclude the basically annual beating they give the Big 12 North in the Big 12 title game.

Colorado +10 Kansas - Colorado's defense has been legit, if a little overworked due to their offense not being able to stay on the field for long stretches. That offense should find sledding a little easier this week as they face the 57th ranked total defense…a number that's inflated by the less-than-challenging schedule the Jayhawks have played thus far. KU's defensive problems so far have mostly involved poor linebacker play, which doesn't bode well at all for shutting a team down that likes to build off of its running game and that made a change at quarterback, meaning there's very little film available on how the Buffs will use him. If KU can get the offense going early, get a couple of defensive stops, and hit Colorado in the mouth early…this one could really get going their way. That's a bunch of ifs with this many points available. Colorado is 5-1 against KU in the last 6 matchups in Boulder.

Wisconsin -2 1/2 Iowa - The Hawkeyes enjoy a high ranked based on really one game at Penn State, a nice win to be sure, but there are lots of reasons to question how good Penn State is…especially offensively, but Iowa was outgunned in that ballgame but was +2 in turnovers. The glaring fact is that Iowa has 1 good performance and 3 bad ones that they've narrowly escaped. Wisconsin is a good, not great, team in a bounce-back spot after losing to Ohio State last week and they traditionally play well at home. The Badgers have won 2 of the last 3 and 4 of the last 6 in this series.

Minnesota +17 1/2 Penn State - Speaking of the Nittany Lions being questionable on how good they are, this seems like a lot of points to be giving up considering that Minnesota has the most explosive offensive player on either team, they've been a solid, hard to blow out team in scratching out a 4-2 record thus far, and Penn State is a dismal 1-4 against the number…with the only win being against a terrible Illinois team in a bounce-back spot after losing to Iowa. Penn State has essentially had two weeks to prepare, after disposing of an FCS opponent last week, but the Gophers are well coached, they don't make mistakes, and they don't do things to beat themselves. Beating a team like that by 3 touchdowns in a tall order. Minnesota has won 4 of the last 6 outright against Penn State and have covered 6 of the last 8. Penn State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

USC -10 Notre Dame - Short and Sweet write-up…I don't believe in Notre Dame. They're the serendipitous college version of the Denver Broncos this year, and a team with the kind of talent the Trojans throw at you can and will wear them out. Vegas loves the Irish, to the tune of inflating every number such that they're 1-4 against the spread, having lost 4 straight. The Trojans have covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and 4 of the last 6 in South Bend. Notre Dame has covered in just 2 of their last 10 games overall.

Leans:

Nebraska -10
Oklahoma State -7
Ball State +3