NCAA Football: Week 9

San Diego State -16 New Mexico - The Lobos are tied for last in the nation with a 1-6 record ATS this season (0-7 overall), and the cover was a 20 point loss when they just happened to be getting 5 touchdowns. They've lost their 3 road games by an average of 26 points. The Aztecs meanwhile, have covered 4 straight games, 5 of their last 7 at home, and 4 of their last 5 as a home favorite. New Mexico has covered 7 of the last 8 in this series, including a 70-7 drubbing last year...the San Diego State gets to exercise some of those demons against a terrible team today.

Houston -6 1/2 Southern Miss - Outside of Houston's inexplicable loss to UTEP, in a week where they spent a lot of time answering BCS buster questions, they've been a covering machine. They're 5-1 against the number, they're 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home, and they're 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home in this series. The Golden Eagles are 1-2 ATS (0-3 SU) on the road for the season.

Michigan/Illinois OVER 54 - When Michigan has the ball, the 2nd ranked total offense in the Big Ten is going against the worst total defense in the conference, so the Wolverines will score. When Illinois has the ball, they're up against a below average defense, ranked 72nd nationally and allowing a generous 3.8 yards/carry on the ground. Both teams are minus on the year on turnovers, providing ample opportunity for a couple of short fields today.

Michigan -7 Illinois - As I said above, when Michigan has the ball...they're starting across the line of scrimmage at the worst defense in the conference. Michigan is #2 in the Big Ten offensively and #1 on the ground, the Illini counter with last and last. Illinois has a shot to score some points in this game, hence the bet on the over, but Michigan is likely to get more stops and to be able to make sure they come away with touchdowns when they get in the redzone. The Wolverines have covered 4 of the last 6 in this series and have won 6 of the last 7 outright. Illinois is just 1-5 ATS on the season and they've covered just 2 of their last 11 overall.

Colorado +3 1/2 Missouri - I'm not sure Gary Pinkel has the ability to right the ship with this bunch after the demoralizing loss they suffered against Nebraska with the game well in hand. I'm certainly not sure he can do it on the road against a team with a pretty feisty defense. And for as good as Missouri has been the last couple of years, they haven't exactly dominated the Buffaloes, as CU is 4-1 SU in their last 5 in Boulder in this series and have covered 6 of the last 9 against the Tigers overall.

Florida State -10 North Carolina State - The Seminoles aren't very good, but NC State is REALLY not very good...so much so that they have all of one win against an FBS team. They are coming off a BYE week, but since FSU played last Thursday and are at home today, they've had a little extended week to get ready.

Oklahoma -27 1/2 Kansas State - The Wildcats are 104th nationally in passing offense. Do you think they're going to run the ball against OU's defense? Me neither.

Leans:

Iowa State +6
Georgia +15
Nebraska -14
UCLA +9 1/2