NCAA Week 11

Oklahoma State +3 1/2 Texas Tech - Texas Tech is one week removed from the biggest win in school history. They've spent the week hearing debate about whether or not they deserved to jump Penn State in the BCS rankings, they've got an ABC game in prime time again, etc. Now, maybe this team is good enough to survive and play well against an OSU team that I think is better than they are...but they'll have to prove it to me. Even this far into the season, these divisional foes have only played two common opponents...Tech beat Texas in Lubbock while Okie State lost a close one to them in Austin. Both beat Texas A&M comfortably, though OSU had much less trouble in doing so. The Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 against the number this season.

Nebraska -1 Kansas - Heading into this year, this didn't look like too tough of a game for the Jayhawks. Nebraska breaking in a new coaching staff, Kansas coming off the best season in school history with lots of starters back, etc. But, Kansas has had more trouble that expected replacing the few guys they lost, they've been banged up more than last year, and they just aren't quite as good as expected. On the flip side, Nebraska has been improving and while they're just 2-3 in Big 12 play, the losses came to Missouri, Texas Tech (overtime in Lubbock), and Oklahoma. Nebraska was embarrassed in Lawrence last year but had some success offensively in that game. Kansas hasn't won in Lincoln since the 60s, and I'd very much like to watch them break that streak today...I'm pessimistic.

San Jose State -7 Louisiana Tech - San Jose State is playing for bowl eligibility and hosts a Louisiana Tech team with a one dimensional offensive attack (#26 rushing, #104 passing). San Jose State doesn't really do anything well offensively, but the defense is tough...ranked #19 nationally in total defense. Louisiana Tech has only covered 1 of their last 6, they're 0-4 ATS on the road this season, and they're 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.

Iowa / Penn State UNDER 43 1/2 - Number #6 squares off against #24 in total defense in this one. The OVER is 3-2 in Penn State games this year, but in two of those three their offense did most of the damage. The Penn State defense has given up more than 17 points only once all year. The OVER is just 2-4 in Iowa games. The weather across the midwest will be cold and miserable...wind chill of 24 in Iowa City right now and a chance of snow. This game is very likely to turn into a slugfest.

Missouri -27 Kansas State - The Wildcats roll into Columbia amid turmoil. Ron Prince was forced out earlier in the week but will finish the season. And they don't match up well with Missouri, as K-State is #108 nationally in total defense and #89 in passing defense. So the big question is, will K-State show some fire for their coach? Prince has never struck me as a player's guy...so I think it's more likely that they face some adversity early and quit on him. Mizzou is likley to put 50+ in this game. Bad weather could mean they run the ball more which plays into the weakness of K-State. I just don't think the Wildcats can keep up in this spot.

Leans:

Iowa State +10
Wake Forest -3 1/2
LSU +3 1/2
Boise State -35
Georgia -12 1/2