NFL: Week 11

Tampa Bay -4 Minnesota - The Vikings are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 on the road. They travel to Florida today to play a Bucs squad that is rested coming off their BYE week, while Minnesota has to bounce back from an emotional win over Green Bay at home last week. Tampa is a game back of Carolina and tied with Atlanta in a hotly contested NFC South and needs to play well today. Tampa has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. Tough spot for the Vikings on the road.

NY Giants -7 Baltimore - The Ravens have won 4 straight and head to the Meadowlands today to take on the defending Super Bowl champs and what is probably the best team in football. The Giants are 5-0 at home so far going 4-1 in those games against the number. They have the #2 pass defense in the league and, while Joe Flacco has played pretty well this year, this one is a tall order for him. The Ravens defense is again legit, but Eli Manning is equipped to play well enough against them to score some points. I can't say the same for Baltimore's offensive unit.

Jacksonville +3 Tennessee - The Titans have covered a bunch of games this year, and I might go down in flames doing it...but I really think they're overvalued in Vegas right now. This blog has gone 1-1 going against them the last two weeks after Chicago inexplicably couldn't stop Kerry Collins even after making them one dimensional. Jacksonville is too good of a team to continue sucking like they have thus far, and they're very good in the small underdog spot going 11-3 against the number in their last 14 as a dog of 4 or less.

Chicago +3 1/2 Green Bay - Two total opposite defenses going today. The Bears are extremely tough against the run but give up yards in the passing game in droves. The Packers stop the pass very well but are just 28th in the NFL in run defense. Offensively, the offenses aren't terribly different in the passing game but the Bears run it a quite a bit better (#15 vs #23). In a cold weather game, I like the way the Bears are put together a little bit better. Getting more than a field goal is a bonus. The Bears are 4-1-1 in the last 6 in this series, and 3-1-1 in their last 5 trips to Lambeau.

Pittsburgh -5 San Diego - The Chargers are a broken team. Their only road win was against the Raiders and they're 1-3-1 against the number on the road (including dropping the last 3...all by more than a touchdown). So, I'm not too convinced that they can go to Pittsburgh to play a really good Steelers teams and keep it competitive. San Diego has only looked good when their offense clicks and they score a bunch of points but being on the road against the best defense in football isn't a great spot to make that happen. Pittsburgh has covered 5 of the last 6 against the Chargers.

San Francisco -6 1/2 St. Louis - The 49ers are playing better recently even though we've confirmed the suspicion we had during his playing days that Mike Singletary is a lunatic. St. Louis has also played better since Jim Haslett took over, but they don't have much fire power with Steven Jackson on the shelf, and he won't play today. Mike Martz should be motivated to put some points on the board after his head coach threw him under the bus last week for the end-game play call. The 49ers have dominated this series of late (at least as it relates to the spread), covering 6 of the last 7 overall and 5 of the last 7 at home.