NCAA Week 12

Texas -13 1/2 Kansas - Senior Day in Lawrence, but this is a tough spot for the Jayhawks. Texas is still in the national championship hunt and will show up today to find cold, windy weather. That'll mean the running games play a bigger role than usual, and Kansas is a paltry #68 nationally running the ball while the Texas defense is #6 in stopping it. Kansas has had trouble finding replacements for the tackles they lost of last year's team, and the offensive line will have lots of trouble with the Texas front 4 today. Texas wins and it might get ugly.

Nebraska -6 Kansas State - Well, K-State back-door-covered against me last week, but a 94 yard touchdown run with the backup QB in has me undeterred in my belief that this team has mailed it in on Ron Prince. Bowl eligibility is still possible, I just don't think the Wildcat defense is good enough to handle Nebraska's balanced attack. K-State is #109 against the run which is actually unbelievable given that they play in a pass-happy league. The Cornhuskers will mix up their playcalling and have some success offensively do enough to get the win and cover here.

Navy +4 Notre Dame - Still not a believer in Notre Dame. The best win by either of these teams is the road win by the Midshipmen against Wake Forest. Last year Navy exercised the demons of the 40+ year losing streak against the Irish. This year, Navy might just be better. I'd expect a close game similar to last year's nailbiter and in such situations, I'll take the points. Don't be shocked by an outright Navy win, though.

Georgia -10 Auburn - The Tigers a dysfunctional football team, and they've been awful against the number going 1-8 on the season. Georgia rolls in today providing some value since they're only 1-5 ATS in their last 6. This line should be somewhere in the 2 touchdown range, and I'd still probably like it even that high.

Florida -22 South Carolina - Florida has covered 5 straight since the Ole Miss loss, they've climbed their way up the BCS rankings, and they're poised to win the SEC and draw the Big 12 champ in the national championship game. As well as they've been playing, and as overmatched as the old ball coach's Gamecocks are today, this one will be a boatrace. Florida hung 51 on South Carolina on the road last year and this year's offense is better. I just don't see South Carolina keeping up.

South Florida -8 Rutgers - South Florida has had 2+ weeks to prepare for this one. They were off last week and played the Thursday night game the week before, so they haven't played a game since October. The time off will help them get healthy as they return home today coming off of back-to-back losses and needing to bounce back with a win today. Rutgers has played pretty well the last couple weeks which has kept this number lower than it should have been.