NFL: Week 11

New England -10 NY Jets - The Jets have had the Patriots number recently, but their win over the Pats in week 2 was the last time they've played well (not counting pounding Oakland, which really shouldn't count). They catch New England in a bounce back spot here after the disappointing Sunday night loss against the Colts. An agitated Patriot team against a struggling Jets team, means you go against the matchup trend here (Jets have covered 3 of the last 5 in Foxboro).

San Diego -5 Denver - If you read this blog regularly, you'll know I really don't believe in the Broncos. At all. They've now lost 3 straight and host a (relatively) hot Charger team. I'll continue to be on the other side until they pull out of this slide. San Diego is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 in this series.

Indianapolis -1 1/2 Baltimore - This number feels like a classic Vegas trap, but I'm falling for it. Peyton is playing as well as he has in his career, but Baltimore is a pretty good (if underachieving) team. Still, you have to like Indy laying almost no points until they eventually get beat. Baltimore is still pretty effective against the run, but they're no longer elite against the pass (13th in the league). The Colts have won and covered 5 straight in this series.

Seattle +11 Minnesota - This one just feels like too many points, but I don't have any real insight. I get the impression that the Vikings are a little overrated, but they're going to cruise to some wins and a nice shiny record before Favre has a meltdown and rips their fans' hearts out. It's going to happen.

NY Giants -7 Atlanta - Atlanta is a team that I think is better than their records, but Matt Ryan is suffering a bit of a sophomore slump and he'll face the #2 passing defense in the league today. They travel to a tough spot, as the Giants have lost 4 straight and have had the BYE week to get ready. The Falcons are 1-4 SU on the road, and the Giants have covered the last won and covered their last 2 against Atlanta.

Leans:

Oakland +9 1/2
Buffalo +8 1/2

NCAA Football: Week 12

Georgia -9 1/2 Kentucky - The Wildcats have been a bettor's charm over the last several weeks, and they've spent the year getting a lot of sharp money behind them, which has all smeared the fact that they really don't have a good win. In a battle of teams trying to scratch out their 7th win to secure a bowl, when the superior team is at home, I'll lay the points. The Bulldogs have won 11 of the last 12 in this series and have covered 4 of the last 5 between the hedges.

South Florida -12 Louisville - Bounce back spot for South Florida, who had looked good all year until they laid an egg at Rutgers last week. They've got an extra couple of days to prepare, following the Thursday night game, and they get to host a Louisville team that is 0-5 on the road. The home team has won 6 straight in this series, including the Cardinals getting blown out in their last couple trips to Tampa.

Ole Miss -4 LSU - I've been waiting all year for a spot where the overratedness of LSU could make me some money...that day is today. The Rebels have had a bit of a disappointing season, and LSU has overachieved, but Ole Miss is still the better team in this matchup. Preseason, this line would have been double-digits, and I'm not convinced that either one of these teams has shown enough different from projection to move it a touchdown off of that. So, I'll play the value. The Rebels are 7-1 against the number in their last 8 against LSU.

Kansas State +17 Nebraska - The Cornhuskers are obviously the better team here, but this is a bunch of points. Both teams are ground oriented offensively, and Nebraska's strategy in general is the run the ball and play defense, so much so that they haven't won a Big 12 game by this number all year. K-State will employ the strategy they used against KU which will limit possession count and shorten the game. They also won't beat themselves (19th nationally in turnover margin) and can attack Nebraska in special teams (6th nationally on kick returns). The Wildcats have covered 6 of the last 9 in this series.

Connecticut +7 Notre Dame - The Fighting Irish are against among the most overrated teams in the country, at just 3-7 against the number. On the flip side, UConn as much better than their (SU) record indicates, as they've been in every game, including providing scares to both Pitt and Cincy, and they lead he nation in record against the spread at 7-1. Charlie Weis is the other jumbo sized coach nationally that's about to lose his job, which brings me to.....

Texas -27 Kansas - The Jayhawks are a mess. Picked by many (including myself) to win the Big 12 North, they've suffering through their most disappointing "high expectation" season since '96. Add in the rumblings about Mangino's job, and the unlikelihood of the very players that hate him rallying around him, and KU is in a tough spot. It gets worse. Texas's early season troubles have been erased, and they're finally playing good football on both sides of the ball. They're a bad matchup for KU, anyway...having ended it by halftime in each of the last 2 in this series in Austin and covering 6 of the last 7 overall. This is going to suck.

Leans:

Oklahoma -6
North Carolina +3 1/2
Michigan +12
Virginia Tech -21

NFL: Week 10

Atlanta -2 Carolina - You can pretty much repeat what I wrote about the Falcons game last week, except they're now 6-2 ATS, and they aren't playing a team coming off a BYE. Atlanta still doesn't have a bad loss and have shown a good ability to win the games they should. Carolina has played better the last two weeks, but I'm still not sold on them. Atlanta has covered 3 of the last 4 in this series, and the Panthers are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS at home this season.

Jacksonville +7 NY Jets - I don't really think the Jags are very good, but the Jets have looked impressive exactly once since the hot start early, and that once was against the Raiders. The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite and have lost 6 of those outright, including 2 outright losses as more than a touchdown favorite. Jacksonville has covered 5 straight in this series.

Miami -10 Tampa Bay - The debut of Josh Freeman went better than I expected last week, but he was aided greatly by two DST touchdowns. The Packers outgained them by more than 100, just couldn't overcome 3 turnovers and a blocked punt. Miami is as good of a 3-5 team as there is...the losses are all to good teams and they've had the misfortune of playing both Indy and New Orleans at home. So, expect a bounce-back game for the Dolphins after last week's loss at NE and expect the Freeman era to regress to the mean a little bit.

Leans:

Dallas -3: GB not good, but Dallas not great on 2nd week of back-to-back roadies
Kansas City +2: I guess KC is THAT BAD, but Oakland laying points is funny
Washington +4: NFL's top pass defense gets a shot at Kyle Orton. I still don't believe in Denver

NCAA Football: Week 11

Kansas/Nebraska UNDER 43 - The Cornhuskers are 11th nationally in total defense and they're really good against the run, so offensive success today will fall on Todd Reesing's shoulders. Nebraska's offense has stuggled to find some consistency, Roy Helu Jr hasn't really been healthy, and the Jayhawk defense has been improving. Expect a short field or two after big plays by the defense, but don't expect long, sustained drives. In Big 12 games involving one of these teams this year, the UNDER is 8-2, it's covered 3 straight in KU games and 5 straight in Nebraska games.

Virginia Tech -19 Maryland - A couple extra days to prepare for the Hokies as they try to get their offense back on track. Maryland is just a trainwreck of a football team, having only played well once all season (an upset of Clemson...their only FBS win). Maryland is 3-6 against the number, and VaTech has won and covered 4 straight in this series by an average of 26 points.

Leans:

Kentucky -3 1/2
Ohio +1 1/2
Miami -3
Michigan +8 1/2

Friday Night Two-fer

Cincinnati -9 1/2 West Virginia - The Bearcats let an overmatched UConn team hang around a little too much last week. They'll play better tonight, as they're approaching the point where they need style points.

Kansas -27 1/2 Hofstra - The season opener for the #1 Jayhawks. Hofstra has been a team that fairly consistently makes the tournament, but they lost a lot off last year's team and it'll be a tall order to keep it competitive tonight in Lawrence.

NFL: Week 9

Atlanta -9 Washington - Going against the line movement here, but the Falcons are a pretty good 4-3 team coming off to back-to-back losses and need a win here. Washington is coming off a BYE, but they haven't been impressive in any game this season, really. Atlanta is 5-2 against the number, including a perfect 4-0 at home, and they should play well today. Not much history in this series, but the Falcons won and covered the only recent meeting (back in '06).

Houston +8 1/2 Indianapolis - Since the Houston loss to Jacksonville, they've put together the resume of a pretty decent football team. The Colts have been impressive, particularly in workmanlike destruction of bad teams, but they've been just OK against teams with enough firepower to hang with them. The Texan offense meets that description and the defense has actually been better than I thought. Houston is 3-1-1 in the last 5 in the series and is 3-1 ATS away from home this year.

Baltimore -3 Cincinnati - I'm still not totally sold on the Bengals. They're 5-2, and you are what your record says, but this game is an absolute must-win for the Ravens who, since they've already lost one to the Bengals...can't afford to fall what would realistically be 3 games back. I think they're a good team, and good teams play very well in spots like this.

Kansas City / Jacksonville UNDER 41 1/2 - Neither team is an offensive juggernaut, certainly...the Chiefs have only hit the 20 point mark twice this season, and in one of those games they were aided by 2 turnovers that made it impossible not to score. Jacksonville has broken out with a couple decent offensive performances, but they seem to be the exception and not the rule.

NFL: Week 8

No real writeups. The kick to the taint I took yesterday will do that to you.

Green Bay/Minnesota OVER 47 - Two potent offenses, the potential that Favre tries to do a little too much.

Green Bay -3 Minnesota - Aaron Rodgers had a lot of success in the game in Minnesota, and Favre played his best game.

Miami +3 1/2 NY Jets - Dolphins quietly putting together a decent team, even after last week's meltdown.

Jacksonville +3 Tennessee - Vince Young is back at the helm, HOORAY!!!

NY Giants -1 Philadephia - Brian Westbrook won't play with the after-effect of a concussion. McNabb will have to carry the load.

Denver/Baltimore UNDER 42 - #3 and #7 in rushing defense means we're heavily Orton v Flacco.

Houston -3 1/2 Buffalo - The Texans have started to play better, and back-to-back Buffalo wins are holding this number down.