NFL: Week 8

San Diego -4 Tennessee - Last week's analysis still holds true for the Chargers...at some point this team will stop firing bullets into its feet and win games. Last week they drastically outgained the Patriots, were -4 in turnover margin, and still managed to have a kick that would have sent the game into OT. So, it's back on the bandwagon today, with the Titans dragging the #24 total offense in the NFL to town. If the Chargers avoid giving short fields (a tall order, I know), Tennessee will struggle to move the ball. With last week's loss, San Diego fell to 4-2-1 in their last 7 home games.

New Orleans -1 Pittsburgh - Little bit of a steam play here but, while the Saints have been a general underachiever this year, this is turning into a game they might need. The Falcons look like they're for real, and they have a win in New Orleans, so the Saints know they have to get going to keep pace in the division. The Saints have covered 9 of their last 10 against AFC teams.

NY Jets -6 Green Bay - The Jets have probably not gotten quite enough respect, and it shows in their 5-1 ATS record. They come in here rested of the BYE week and ready for just their 2nd home game since week 2. After a fairly shaky performance in Denver, where they squeaked out a win and cover, I'd expect the Jets to play well today. It's also a tough spot for Green Bay, being a roadie jammed in between home games against Favre and Dallas. The Jets are 12-3 ATS over their last 15.

Buffalo +7 Kansas City - Another game where last week's analysis holds...Kansas City probably isn't as good as their record indicates, and Buffalo with Fitzpatrick isn't your typical terrible winless team. While the Bills really AREN'T very good, they have a couple of nice pieces and had the look last week of a team desperate to get a win. Buffalo won and covered in Arrowhead last year, though this is an admittedly different Chiefs team, and the Bills are 2-1 ATS on the road this year.

Detroit -2 1/2 Washington - The Lions are another team coming off a BYE, and they're getting Matthew Stafford back. They've been WAY better than their schedule indicates, and they draw a Washington team that is next to last in total defense...covered last week by the fact that Jay Cutler wouldn't stop throwing the ball to them. The Lions are 5-1 against the number this season.

Carolina +2 1/2 St Louis - The resurgent Rams have surprised, while Carolina has been terrible, but I like the Panthers in this spot. St Louis is giving up 4.6 yards per carry, which should help Carolina's potent but underachieving running game get on track. With DeAngelo Williams out, they won't be compelled to split the carries in some illogical way. Carolina has dominated this series historically, going 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in the last 16, including winning and covering the last 3.

NCAA: Week 9

Air Force +7 Utah - The Utes have covered several in a row, and Air Force hasn't covered in awhile which all leads to this line having some value. Utah is currently ranked 6th nationally against the run, but they've built that ranking against crappy run offenses (#52, #99, #111, #117, #63, #118, and #103). Utah is also in the tough position of going on the road against a funky offense you don't see much with TCU looming in a huge game next weekend with all sorts of BCS implications. If you're into trends, the underdog is 7-6 SU and 12-1 ATS in the last 13 in this series.

K-State +4 1/2 Oklahoma State - The Wildcats were an intriguing possibility here, even before OSU had to suspend their best receiver for a DUI (coming home from Monday Night Football in the middle of the night after sitting in Dez Bryant's seats...but hey, we're not here to uncover NCAA violations). K-State's defense has been pretty good when they're not facing a running QB, and pretty bad when they are, but the Cowboys don't really present that dimension. And for how good OSU looked running it against Nebraska last week, K-State actually has the better run offense and they're at home. K-State's numbers against the run are terrible, but they're kinda the opposite of Utah, the run offenses they've played have included #6, #22, #26, #30...all better than Okie State. K-State has won and covered 5 straight against OSU in Manhattan.

Iowa State -18 1/2 Kansas - If KU is going to suck, I might as well make some money on it. Iowa State has covered 7 of the last 8 at home in this series, and half that marks some pretty heady times for Jayhawk Football. TBD on how the Cyclones will handle last week's big win...they went to A&M and got blasted after springing the upset in Lincoln last year.

Iowa -6 1/2 Michigan State - Sparty has had a magical run, but there's a reason the computers don't like them (Sagarin's predictors has them just 25th, for example). And they're in a really tough spot on the road against a pissed off team today. Iowa has owned this series against the number (covering 7 of the last 8), and the Hawkeyes have been OUTSTANDING the last few years after SU losses, going 9-3-1 against the number in "bounce back" spots.

Hawaii -15 Idaho - Hawaii is always tough at home, they're finally putting the pieces together under the new coaching staff, they're back to leading the universe in passing, and they've been great against the number this year (6-1 so far). The favorite (usually Hawaii but not last year) has covered 6 straight in this series.

Clemson -7 Boston College - The BC Eagles are the ACC's version of Kansas until proven otherwise, but Clemson has actually looked awfully good at times this year. They were a monumental Auburn comeback away from winning that game, they played North Carolina tough in their last road game. If this team is as good as they've shown flashes of, this is a game they go get. Disclaimer: The underdog has won 4 of the last 5 in this series, though Clemson has won and covered 2 straight.

Leans:

Missouri +7 1/2 Nebraska

Northwestern -3 1/2 Indiana

Miami (OH) - 2 1/2 Buffalo

Texas Tech +7 1/2 Texas A&M

NFL: Week 7

Chicago -3 Washington - The Redskins roll into the windy city last in the NFL in total defense and, while the situation isn't quite as bad when you normalize for tempo, they're #29 defensively in yards/play. While the 'skins have covered 3 straight in Chicago, the Bears have beaten the number in 3 of their last 4 home games.

San Diego -2 1/2 New England - So, the Chargers are an interesting case..they lead the NFL in both total offense AND total defense, yet they're just 2-4. They have been really good in their two home games, moving their record to 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 in SoCal. The Chargers also seems to "get up" for shootout games, they've covered 10 of their last 11 against offensive teams that rank 5.7 or better in YPP (exactly what NE is at).

Buffalo +14 Baltimore - The Ravens offense is really not very good, and they're defense has actually slightly overperformed their numbers...they really shouldn't be laying 14 to anybody, even the worst team in football. The Bills have had two weeks to prepare, while Baltimore played a big game last week, and Fitzpatrick was playing kinda, sorta OK before the BYE. The line went down most places, even in the face of lots of Baltimore action.

Tennessee -2 1/2 Philadelphia - The Eagles will miss DeSean Jackson more than might be expected here. The Titans can stop the run but are prone to getting beat in the passing game, and Kolb having to rely so much on Maclin as his #1 could be a problem. The Eagles have also built their record up against a crappy schedule and are getting a little too much credit here. The Titans have covered 17 of their last 22 as a home favorite of a field goal or less.

Leans:

Seattle -7

San Fran -3

Cincy +3 1/2

Cleveland +13

NCAA: Week 8

Big card, no writeups...

Wyoming +10 1/2 BYU

Indiana +13 1/2 Illinois

Texas A&M -13 1/2 Kansas

Texas -21 Iowa State

North Carolina +6 1/2 Miami

Michigan State -6 Northwestern

Auburn -5 1/2 LSU

NFL: Week 6

Houston -4 Kansas City - The Texans have lost two straight home games but, while the Chiefs are decidedly improved, they aren't quite to the level that you expect them to hang around with good teams on the road. The favorite has covered 3 straight in this series.

Texans/Chiefs UNDER 45 - The Chiefs have a good defense and a bad offense, except they can run the ball a bit. The Texans are 5th in the NFL against the run, probably putting Kansas City's ability to score on the incapable shoulder of Matt Cassel.

San Francisco -6 1/2 Oakland - Raiders coming off a big win and the 49ers in an absolute, must win or the season's over spot. San Fran is a little tougher than their record indicates, they could be a 3 win team just by getting a couple bounces. They'll play well today and get off the donut in the win column. The 49ers, though all of this losing, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Leans:

Denver +3 1/2

New England -2 1/2

Detroit +10

NCAA: Week 7

Texas A&M -3 1/2 Missouri - A&M did a solid job against the spread in Stillwater but couldn't avoid stepping on their own d*cks in giving that game away. They'll have an easier time in College Station. Mizzou has smacked around a weak schedule and hasn't been on the road, yet...so they come in a bit inflated here. The Tigers have only covered 4 of their last 14 Big 12 games, while the Aggies are 5-2-2 in their last 9 at home.

Arkansas +3 1/2 Auburn - The Hogs feel like the better team here to me. Auburn has one quality win and has skated by a couple mediocre teams by a field goal. Arkansas' one loss was an hard to stomach crater job against Alabama, but they shook that off last week with a workmanlike win over the A&M. They should play well today. The underdog has won 4 straight outright in the series (Arkansas is 3 of those), and Arky has covered 7 of their last 9 overall.

Michigan State -7 Illinois - Hidden in the fact that the Illini rolled in Happy Valley last week is that they really hadn't shown much in the way of being a good team leading into that. Michigan State is good, and continues to prove it, though I am at least a little bit weary of a rivalry hangover hear after Sparty took down Michigan. I'm going to say they're well-coached enough to come in focused and beat a team they should beat here. MSU is on a 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS run against Illinois.

Baylor -1 1/2 Colorado - Better team, road tested already, coming off a tough loss...I like the Bears here. Their offense is legit, and will be able to score against an okay Colorado defense, but when Colorado can't run the ball...their offense grinds to a halt. While not exactly elite, Baylor gives up under 4 yards per carry on the ground to at least be better than average at it.

Leans:

Iowa -3

Texas +10

Alabama -20 1/2