Cleveland / Houston OVER 50 - The #22 team in the NFL in total defense battles the #26 team. Weather forecast is for clear weather and not much wind, so the offenses should be able to put up some points. The OVER has paid 3 straight for both of these teams.
New England -1 1/2 Miami - New England was pounded by the Fish in Foxboro in week 3, but with motivation from that embarrassment, Cassel having more experience, and film available of Miami's version of the Wildcat...they should be in much better shape today. This game is a borderline must-win for the Pats. They're currently tied with Miami and a game back of the Jets in the AFC East with Pittsburgh coming to town next week.
San Francisco +10 Dallas - Dallas isn't really a team that blows people out, winning only two games by double digits this season. San Francisco usually does a pretty good job of hanging around and keeping games close, and I don't think the Dallas offense is quite firing on all cylinders. The Cowboys have their playoff hopes hanging in the balance pretty much every week these days, and they'll find a way to win, but this feels like a close game.
Tennessee -5 1/2 NY Jets - I've been betting against the Titans for 3 weeks now, because I think they're a little overvalued. They're in a pretty good spot today, though. The Jets are riding high after their big win over the Pats last week, and Brett Favre hasn't gone colorblind and thrown a couple to the wrong jerseys in a couple of weeks. You figure he's due for some of that against this Titans defense.
Leans (if I'm 2-2 or better in the early games, I'll play these):
Denver -8 1/2
Seattle +3 1/2
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Saturday, November 22, 2008
NCAA Week 13
Short write-ups this week with family in town...
Wake Forest -2 1/2 Boston College - Wake is in must-win territory if they intend to be the Atlantic divisions representative in the ACC title game. They've covered 2 of 3 conference games at home this year, and they've 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Eagles.
Washington -7 Washington State - Battle of the two worst BCS conference teams. Washington State has been worse...they've only stayed within 4 touchdowns of two D-1 opponents. The Huskies are bad...but they aren't that bad. Washington is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 Apple Cup matchups and have covered 4 straight on the road.
Maryland +2 Florida State - Another game with ACC Atlantic implications, but this one is kinda must-win for both teams. Maryland is unbeaten at home this year (6-0 SU, 4-1 ATS), including a big win over North Carolina last week. They've beaten the Seminoles twice in a row in College Park and are 3-1-1 ATS over the last 5 overall.
Penn State -15 1/2 Michigan State - Good season for Sparty, and a loss today doesn't change that, but they've got an inflated record. The weakness of the Big Ten has let them rack up wins, but they were destroyed in East Lansing the only time they played a talented team. I don't believe in them in this spot.
Tulsa -28 1/2 Tulane - The Golden Hurricane return home after back-to-back road losses and get to take some frustration out on the Green Wave in this battle of schools who's mascot doesn't end in S. Tulsa has won and covered 3 straight in this series.
Leans:
Northwestern +3
Cincinnati -6
Utah -7
Wake Forest -2 1/2 Boston College - Wake is in must-win territory if they intend to be the Atlantic divisions representative in the ACC title game. They've covered 2 of 3 conference games at home this year, and they've 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Eagles.
Washington -7 Washington State - Battle of the two worst BCS conference teams. Washington State has been worse...they've only stayed within 4 touchdowns of two D-1 opponents. The Huskies are bad...but they aren't that bad. Washington is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 Apple Cup matchups and have covered 4 straight on the road.
Maryland +2 Florida State - Another game with ACC Atlantic implications, but this one is kinda must-win for both teams. Maryland is unbeaten at home this year (6-0 SU, 4-1 ATS), including a big win over North Carolina last week. They've beaten the Seminoles twice in a row in College Park and are 3-1-1 ATS over the last 5 overall.
Penn State -15 1/2 Michigan State - Good season for Sparty, and a loss today doesn't change that, but they've got an inflated record. The weakness of the Big Ten has let them rack up wins, but they were destroyed in East Lansing the only time they played a talented team. I don't believe in them in this spot.
Tulsa -28 1/2 Tulane - The Golden Hurricane return home after back-to-back road losses and get to take some frustration out on the Green Wave in this battle of schools who's mascot doesn't end in S. Tulsa has won and covered 3 straight in this series.
Leans:
Northwestern +3
Cincinnati -6
Utah -7
Sunday, November 16, 2008
NFL: Week 11
Tampa Bay -4 Minnesota - The Vikings are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 on the road. They travel to Florida today to play a Bucs squad that is rested coming off their BYE week, while Minnesota has to bounce back from an emotional win over Green Bay at home last week. Tampa is a game back of Carolina and tied with Atlanta in a hotly contested NFC South and needs to play well today. Tampa has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. Tough spot for the Vikings on the road.
NY Giants -7 Baltimore - The Ravens have won 4 straight and head to the Meadowlands today to take on the defending Super Bowl champs and what is probably the best team in football. The Giants are 5-0 at home so far going 4-1 in those games against the number. They have the #2 pass defense in the league and, while Joe Flacco has played pretty well this year, this one is a tall order for him. The Ravens defense is again legit, but Eli Manning is equipped to play well enough against them to score some points. I can't say the same for Baltimore's offensive unit.
Jacksonville +3 Tennessee - The Titans have covered a bunch of games this year, and I might go down in flames doing it...but I really think they're overvalued in Vegas right now. This blog has gone 1-1 going against them the last two weeks after Chicago inexplicably couldn't stop Kerry Collins even after making them one dimensional. Jacksonville is too good of a team to continue sucking like they have thus far, and they're very good in the small underdog spot going 11-3 against the number in their last 14 as a dog of 4 or less.
Chicago +3 1/2 Green Bay - Two total opposite defenses going today. The Bears are extremely tough against the run but give up yards in the passing game in droves. The Packers stop the pass very well but are just 28th in the NFL in run defense. Offensively, the offenses aren't terribly different in the passing game but the Bears run it a quite a bit better (#15 vs #23). In a cold weather game, I like the way the Bears are put together a little bit better. Getting more than a field goal is a bonus. The Bears are 4-1-1 in the last 6 in this series, and 3-1-1 in their last 5 trips to Lambeau.
Pittsburgh -5 San Diego - The Chargers are a broken team. Their only road win was against the Raiders and they're 1-3-1 against the number on the road (including dropping the last 3...all by more than a touchdown). So, I'm not too convinced that they can go to Pittsburgh to play a really good Steelers teams and keep it competitive. San Diego has only looked good when their offense clicks and they score a bunch of points but being on the road against the best defense in football isn't a great spot to make that happen. Pittsburgh has covered 5 of the last 6 against the Chargers.
San Francisco -6 1/2 St. Louis - The 49ers are playing better recently even though we've confirmed the suspicion we had during his playing days that Mike Singletary is a lunatic. St. Louis has also played better since Jim Haslett took over, but they don't have much fire power with Steven Jackson on the shelf, and he won't play today. Mike Martz should be motivated to put some points on the board after his head coach threw him under the bus last week for the end-game play call. The 49ers have dominated this series of late (at least as it relates to the spread), covering 6 of the last 7 overall and 5 of the last 7 at home.
NY Giants -7 Baltimore - The Ravens have won 4 straight and head to the Meadowlands today to take on the defending Super Bowl champs and what is probably the best team in football. The Giants are 5-0 at home so far going 4-1 in those games against the number. They have the #2 pass defense in the league and, while Joe Flacco has played pretty well this year, this one is a tall order for him. The Ravens defense is again legit, but Eli Manning is equipped to play well enough against them to score some points. I can't say the same for Baltimore's offensive unit.
Jacksonville +3 Tennessee - The Titans have covered a bunch of games this year, and I might go down in flames doing it...but I really think they're overvalued in Vegas right now. This blog has gone 1-1 going against them the last two weeks after Chicago inexplicably couldn't stop Kerry Collins even after making them one dimensional. Jacksonville is too good of a team to continue sucking like they have thus far, and they're very good in the small underdog spot going 11-3 against the number in their last 14 as a dog of 4 or less.
Chicago +3 1/2 Green Bay - Two total opposite defenses going today. The Bears are extremely tough against the run but give up yards in the passing game in droves. The Packers stop the pass very well but are just 28th in the NFL in run defense. Offensively, the offenses aren't terribly different in the passing game but the Bears run it a quite a bit better (#15 vs #23). In a cold weather game, I like the way the Bears are put together a little bit better. Getting more than a field goal is a bonus. The Bears are 4-1-1 in the last 6 in this series, and 3-1-1 in their last 5 trips to Lambeau.
Pittsburgh -5 San Diego - The Chargers are a broken team. Their only road win was against the Raiders and they're 1-3-1 against the number on the road (including dropping the last 3...all by more than a touchdown). So, I'm not too convinced that they can go to Pittsburgh to play a really good Steelers teams and keep it competitive. San Diego has only looked good when their offense clicks and they score a bunch of points but being on the road against the best defense in football isn't a great spot to make that happen. Pittsburgh has covered 5 of the last 6 against the Chargers.
San Francisco -6 1/2 St. Louis - The 49ers are playing better recently even though we've confirmed the suspicion we had during his playing days that Mike Singletary is a lunatic. St. Louis has also played better since Jim Haslett took over, but they don't have much fire power with Steven Jackson on the shelf, and he won't play today. Mike Martz should be motivated to put some points on the board after his head coach threw him under the bus last week for the end-game play call. The 49ers have dominated this series of late (at least as it relates to the spread), covering 6 of the last 7 overall and 5 of the last 7 at home.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
NCAA Week 12
Texas -13 1/2 Kansas - Senior Day in Lawrence, but this is a tough spot for the Jayhawks. Texas is still in the national championship hunt and will show up today to find cold, windy weather. That'll mean the running games play a bigger role than usual, and Kansas is a paltry #68 nationally running the ball while the Texas defense is #6 in stopping it. Kansas has had trouble finding replacements for the tackles they lost of last year's team, and the offensive line will have lots of trouble with the Texas front 4 today. Texas wins and it might get ugly.
Nebraska -6 Kansas State - Well, K-State back-door-covered against me last week, but a 94 yard touchdown run with the backup QB in has me undeterred in my belief that this team has mailed it in on Ron Prince. Bowl eligibility is still possible, I just don't think the Wildcat defense is good enough to handle Nebraska's balanced attack. K-State is #109 against the run which is actually unbelievable given that they play in a pass-happy league. The Cornhuskers will mix up their playcalling and have some success offensively do enough to get the win and cover here.
Navy +4 Notre Dame - Still not a believer in Notre Dame. The best win by either of these teams is the road win by the Midshipmen against Wake Forest. Last year Navy exercised the demons of the 40+ year losing streak against the Irish. This year, Navy might just be better. I'd expect a close game similar to last year's nailbiter and in such situations, I'll take the points. Don't be shocked by an outright Navy win, though.
Georgia -10 Auburn - The Tigers a dysfunctional football team, and they've been awful against the number going 1-8 on the season. Georgia rolls in today providing some value since they're only 1-5 ATS in their last 6. This line should be somewhere in the 2 touchdown range, and I'd still probably like it even that high.
Florida -22 South Carolina - Florida has covered 5 straight since the Ole Miss loss, they've climbed their way up the BCS rankings, and they're poised to win the SEC and draw the Big 12 champ in the national championship game. As well as they've been playing, and as overmatched as the old ball coach's Gamecocks are today, this one will be a boatrace. Florida hung 51 on South Carolina on the road last year and this year's offense is better. I just don't see South Carolina keeping up.
South Florida -8 Rutgers - South Florida has had 2+ weeks to prepare for this one. They were off last week and played the Thursday night game the week before, so they haven't played a game since October. The time off will help them get healthy as they return home today coming off of back-to-back losses and needing to bounce back with a win today. Rutgers has played pretty well the last couple weeks which has kept this number lower than it should have been.
Nebraska -6 Kansas State - Well, K-State back-door-covered against me last week, but a 94 yard touchdown run with the backup QB in has me undeterred in my belief that this team has mailed it in on Ron Prince. Bowl eligibility is still possible, I just don't think the Wildcat defense is good enough to handle Nebraska's balanced attack. K-State is #109 against the run which is actually unbelievable given that they play in a pass-happy league. The Cornhuskers will mix up their playcalling and have some success offensively do enough to get the win and cover here.
Navy +4 Notre Dame - Still not a believer in Notre Dame. The best win by either of these teams is the road win by the Midshipmen against Wake Forest. Last year Navy exercised the demons of the 40+ year losing streak against the Irish. This year, Navy might just be better. I'd expect a close game similar to last year's nailbiter and in such situations, I'll take the points. Don't be shocked by an outright Navy win, though.
Georgia -10 Auburn - The Tigers a dysfunctional football team, and they've been awful against the number going 1-8 on the season. Georgia rolls in today providing some value since they're only 1-5 ATS in their last 6. This line should be somewhere in the 2 touchdown range, and I'd still probably like it even that high.
Florida -22 South Carolina - Florida has covered 5 straight since the Ole Miss loss, they've climbed their way up the BCS rankings, and they're poised to win the SEC and draw the Big 12 champ in the national championship game. As well as they've been playing, and as overmatched as the old ball coach's Gamecocks are today, this one will be a boatrace. Florida hung 51 on South Carolina on the road last year and this year's offense is better. I just don't see South Carolina keeping up.
South Florida -8 Rutgers - South Florida has had 2+ weeks to prepare for this one. They were off last week and played the Thursday night game the week before, so they haven't played a game since October. The time off will help them get healthy as they return home today coming off of back-to-back losses and needing to bounce back with a win today. Rutgers has played pretty well the last couple weeks which has kept this number lower than it should have been.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
NFL: Week 10
San Diego -14 Kansas City - Bought a half point. The Chiefs have left it all on the field the last two weeks in two inspired efforts but come up short. They travel west to play a pissed off Chargers team that is coming off consecutive losses, just had their BYE week to get healthy, and still has legitimate aspirations of winning the AFC West. The Chargers are 8-1-1 against the number in their last 10 against AFC West opponents and they've covered 9 of their last 10 as a favorite of 8 or more. The Chiefs are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 against San Diego.
Houston PK Baltimore - Don't look now, but the Texans aren't terrible any more. They're just 3-5 so far, but they've played a brutal schedule. After opening with 3 straight road games against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, then playing Indianapolis at home (thus starting 0-4)...they've gone 3-1 through a more manageable part of their schedule. They're coming off a tough road loss last week, are now ranked #4 in the NFL in total offense, Sage Rosenfels kept it going last week in relief of Schaub, and Andre Johnson is turning into a superstar. They're valuable in this spot as the public is overvaluing Baltimore. The Ravens have covered 3 straight, all by double digits, but the last two weeks they've played #27 and #29 in total offense. The only truly impressive performance in that 3 game run came at Miami after Baltimore had lost 3 straight and been embarrassed the week before by Indy.
Indianapolis +4 1/2 Pittsburgh - The Steelers have done a pretty good of beating up on bad teams, but Monday night was their first really impressive performance. They are a good football team with a good defense working on a short week. The defense probably isn't as good as the #1 ranking might indicate, given the schedule a couple of bad weather games they've played. The Colts got Anthony Gonzalez involved last week which gives them another weapon in the passing game and Joseph Addai is getting healthier every week. Their offense is gaining firepower and the defense has all the pieces back, which gets the Colts back to being a good team. Should be a very close game, so I'll take the points.
Minnesota -2 1/2 Green Bay - Suspicious line here, since Green Bay has won 5 straight in this series and is 4-1 against the number in their last 5 in Minnesota. But Brett Favre isnt walking through that door. The Vikings are extremely good against the run, so Aaron Rodgers will be asked to win this game with his arm, on the road, in a loud environment rivalry game, in a spot where both teams are desperate for a win to keep pace with the Bears in the NFC North. I like Rodgers a lot, but that's a pretty tall order for him today, especially when you figure he'll have limited opportunities. The Packers aren't very good against the run, checking in at #28 in the league, which will mean the Vikings can have success with their rushing attack, score some points, and control the ball. The Vikings are good as a small favorite, covering 8 of their last 10 as a favorite of less than 3.
Chicago +3 Tennessee - The Edge made money last week betting against the Titans and we're going back to the well this week. This Bears defense isn't as good as in years past, but they are well suited for the stretch run...being much tougher against the run (#6) than they are against the pass (#30). This imbalance also makes the defense match up pretty well against Tennessee, since the Titans are STILL waiting for their first 200 yard passing day. The Bears are a cold weather team in general, covering 7 of their last 10 in November. The Bears are also really good in the small underdog spot, going 7-2-1 against the number (7-3 SU) as a dog of 4 or less.
Leans:
Jacksonville -6 1/2
Atlanta -1
Houston PK Baltimore - Don't look now, but the Texans aren't terrible any more. They're just 3-5 so far, but they've played a brutal schedule. After opening with 3 straight road games against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, then playing Indianapolis at home (thus starting 0-4)...they've gone 3-1 through a more manageable part of their schedule. They're coming off a tough road loss last week, are now ranked #4 in the NFL in total offense, Sage Rosenfels kept it going last week in relief of Schaub, and Andre Johnson is turning into a superstar. They're valuable in this spot as the public is overvaluing Baltimore. The Ravens have covered 3 straight, all by double digits, but the last two weeks they've played #27 and #29 in total offense. The only truly impressive performance in that 3 game run came at Miami after Baltimore had lost 3 straight and been embarrassed the week before by Indy.
Indianapolis +4 1/2 Pittsburgh - The Steelers have done a pretty good of beating up on bad teams, but Monday night was their first really impressive performance. They are a good football team with a good defense working on a short week. The defense probably isn't as good as the #1 ranking might indicate, given the schedule a couple of bad weather games they've played. The Colts got Anthony Gonzalez involved last week which gives them another weapon in the passing game and Joseph Addai is getting healthier every week. Their offense is gaining firepower and the defense has all the pieces back, which gets the Colts back to being a good team. Should be a very close game, so I'll take the points.
Minnesota -2 1/2 Green Bay - Suspicious line here, since Green Bay has won 5 straight in this series and is 4-1 against the number in their last 5 in Minnesota. But Brett Favre isnt walking through that door. The Vikings are extremely good against the run, so Aaron Rodgers will be asked to win this game with his arm, on the road, in a loud environment rivalry game, in a spot where both teams are desperate for a win to keep pace with the Bears in the NFC North. I like Rodgers a lot, but that's a pretty tall order for him today, especially when you figure he'll have limited opportunities. The Packers aren't very good against the run, checking in at #28 in the league, which will mean the Vikings can have success with their rushing attack, score some points, and control the ball. The Vikings are good as a small favorite, covering 8 of their last 10 as a favorite of less than 3.
Chicago +3 Tennessee - The Edge made money last week betting against the Titans and we're going back to the well this week. This Bears defense isn't as good as in years past, but they are well suited for the stretch run...being much tougher against the run (#6) than they are against the pass (#30). This imbalance also makes the defense match up pretty well against Tennessee, since the Titans are STILL waiting for their first 200 yard passing day. The Bears are a cold weather team in general, covering 7 of their last 10 in November. The Bears are also really good in the small underdog spot, going 7-2-1 against the number (7-3 SU) as a dog of 4 or less.
Leans:
Jacksonville -6 1/2
Atlanta -1
Saturday, November 8, 2008
NCAA Week 11
Oklahoma State +3 1/2 Texas Tech - Texas Tech is one week removed from the biggest win in school history. They've spent the week hearing debate about whether or not they deserved to jump Penn State in the BCS rankings, they've got an ABC game in prime time again, etc. Now, maybe this team is good enough to survive and play well against an OSU team that I think is better than they are...but they'll have to prove it to me. Even this far into the season, these divisional foes have only played two common opponents...Tech beat Texas in Lubbock while Okie State lost a close one to them in Austin. Both beat Texas A&M comfortably, though OSU had much less trouble in doing so. The Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 against the number this season.
Nebraska -1 Kansas - Heading into this year, this didn't look like too tough of a game for the Jayhawks. Nebraska breaking in a new coaching staff, Kansas coming off the best season in school history with lots of starters back, etc. But, Kansas has had more trouble that expected replacing the few guys they lost, they've been banged up more than last year, and they just aren't quite as good as expected. On the flip side, Nebraska has been improving and while they're just 2-3 in Big 12 play, the losses came to Missouri, Texas Tech (overtime in Lubbock), and Oklahoma. Nebraska was embarrassed in Lawrence last year but had some success offensively in that game. Kansas hasn't won in Lincoln since the 60s, and I'd very much like to watch them break that streak today...I'm pessimistic.
San Jose State -7 Louisiana Tech - San Jose State is playing for bowl eligibility and hosts a Louisiana Tech team with a one dimensional offensive attack (#26 rushing, #104 passing). San Jose State doesn't really do anything well offensively, but the defense is tough...ranked #19 nationally in total defense. Louisiana Tech has only covered 1 of their last 6, they're 0-4 ATS on the road this season, and they're 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Iowa / Penn State UNDER 43 1/2 - Number #6 squares off against #24 in total defense in this one. The OVER is 3-2 in Penn State games this year, but in two of those three their offense did most of the damage. The Penn State defense has given up more than 17 points only once all year. The OVER is just 2-4 in Iowa games. The weather across the midwest will be cold and miserable...wind chill of 24 in Iowa City right now and a chance of snow. This game is very likely to turn into a slugfest.
Missouri -27 Kansas State - The Wildcats roll into Columbia amid turmoil. Ron Prince was forced out earlier in the week but will finish the season. And they don't match up well with Missouri, as K-State is #108 nationally in total defense and #89 in passing defense. So the big question is, will K-State show some fire for their coach? Prince has never struck me as a player's guy...so I think it's more likely that they face some adversity early and quit on him. Mizzou is likley to put 50+ in this game. Bad weather could mean they run the ball more which plays into the weakness of K-State. I just don't think the Wildcats can keep up in this spot.
Leans:
Iowa State +10
Wake Forest -3 1/2
LSU +3 1/2
Boise State -35
Georgia -12 1/2
Nebraska -1 Kansas - Heading into this year, this didn't look like too tough of a game for the Jayhawks. Nebraska breaking in a new coaching staff, Kansas coming off the best season in school history with lots of starters back, etc. But, Kansas has had more trouble that expected replacing the few guys they lost, they've been banged up more than last year, and they just aren't quite as good as expected. On the flip side, Nebraska has been improving and while they're just 2-3 in Big 12 play, the losses came to Missouri, Texas Tech (overtime in Lubbock), and Oklahoma. Nebraska was embarrassed in Lawrence last year but had some success offensively in that game. Kansas hasn't won in Lincoln since the 60s, and I'd very much like to watch them break that streak today...I'm pessimistic.
San Jose State -7 Louisiana Tech - San Jose State is playing for bowl eligibility and hosts a Louisiana Tech team with a one dimensional offensive attack (#26 rushing, #104 passing). San Jose State doesn't really do anything well offensively, but the defense is tough...ranked #19 nationally in total defense. Louisiana Tech has only covered 1 of their last 6, they're 0-4 ATS on the road this season, and they're 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Iowa / Penn State UNDER 43 1/2 - Number #6 squares off against #24 in total defense in this one. The OVER is 3-2 in Penn State games this year, but in two of those three their offense did most of the damage. The Penn State defense has given up more than 17 points only once all year. The OVER is just 2-4 in Iowa games. The weather across the midwest will be cold and miserable...wind chill of 24 in Iowa City right now and a chance of snow. This game is very likely to turn into a slugfest.
Missouri -27 Kansas State - The Wildcats roll into Columbia amid turmoil. Ron Prince was forced out earlier in the week but will finish the season. And they don't match up well with Missouri, as K-State is #108 nationally in total defense and #89 in passing defense. So the big question is, will K-State show some fire for their coach? Prince has never struck me as a player's guy...so I think it's more likely that they face some adversity early and quit on him. Mizzou is likley to put 50+ in this game. Bad weather could mean they run the ball more which plays into the weakness of K-State. I just don't think the Wildcats can keep up in this spot.
Leans:
Iowa State +10
Wake Forest -3 1/2
LSU +3 1/2
Boise State -35
Georgia -12 1/2
Sunday, November 2, 2008
NFL: Week 9 Continued
Cleveland -2 Baltimore - Suspicious line here. The Browns were whipped in week 3, but they're getting healthy, gaining some confidence, and are playing much better lately. They host a Baltimore team that is pretty typical, poor offense and good defense. The Ravens have struggled on the road lately, covering only 2 of their last 11. Meanwhile, Cleveland's rabid fanbase gives them a nice home field advantage, as they've covered 9 time in their last 10 tries as the host. They've been equally successful against Baltimore, covering the number in the last 4 matchups in Cleveland and 5 of the last 6 overall.
Atlanta / Oakland OVER 41 1/2 - While the offenses in this game aren't necessarily great, sometimes an over looks good because the defenses are just bad. Such is the case in the Black Hole today, where the #25 and #26 ranked total defenses square off. Atlanta has given up at least 20 points in 6 of their 7 games (holding only Kansas City below that mark), while Oakland has held two opponents under 20 but actually gives up a higher average yielding 25.3 per game.
Indianapolis -6 1/2 New England - The Colts have to have this game. And hidden underneath the Patriots run at an undefeated season last year is the fact that Indy has owned this series lately. Since the memorable playoff game in '05, the Colts have covered 4 straight including two outright road wins...and all of that included a Patriots team that was less old on defense and had Tom Brady at the helm. Bob Sanders returns today to help in run support and complement what is already the #2 passing defense in the league. Matt Cassel will have his hands full when the Pats have the ball.
Atlanta / Oakland OVER 41 1/2 - While the offenses in this game aren't necessarily great, sometimes an over looks good because the defenses are just bad. Such is the case in the Black Hole today, where the #25 and #26 ranked total defenses square off. Atlanta has given up at least 20 points in 6 of their 7 games (holding only Kansas City below that mark), while Oakland has held two opponents under 20 but actually gives up a higher average yielding 25.3 per game.
Indianapolis -6 1/2 New England - The Colts have to have this game. And hidden underneath the Patriots run at an undefeated season last year is the fact that Indy has owned this series lately. Since the memorable playoff game in '05, the Colts have covered 4 straight including two outright road wins...and all of that included a Patriots team that was less old on defense and had Tom Brady at the helm. Bob Sanders returns today to help in run support and complement what is already the #2 passing defense in the league. Matt Cassel will have his hands full when the Pats have the ball.
NFL: Week 9
Minnesota -4 1/2 Houston - The Baltimore game that was canceled has given the Texans a quirky schedule so far. They played their first 3 games away from home, their next 4 at home, and they go back on the road today to play a Minnesota team that is in need of a win, as they're a game back of both the Bears and Packers in the NFC North. The Vikings are 5-1 SU and ATS coming off the BYE and 2-0 in those 6 when they're at home. The Texans are 21st in the NFL against the run and will have a tough time stopping the Adrian Peterson and the Vikes attack today, so they'll probably need this to become a shootout. They won't have quite enough bullets.
Green Bay +4 1/2 Tennessee - The Titans could be the worst 7-0 team in the history of the NFL. That's not to say they're bad, because it's a good team, but their schedule has set up just perfectly. Out of three road games, two have come against Cincinnati and Kansas City...teams with a combined 1 win. The Titans haven't had 200 passing yards in any game this year, and they'll find the sledding particularly tough today against the Packers and their #6 ranked passing defense. Tennessee can muddy this game up, try to control the football, and make it a low scoring slugfest to move to 8-0...but they odds are slim that they can run away and win by a bunch of points. So, getting more than 4 is great in this spot.
Buffalo -5 NY Jets - The Bills try to bounce back from a loss last week to Miami as they return home to face a Jets team that has really not been very good away from home, standing at 1-2 SU and ATS to date. Buffalo has gotten the better of this series lately, covering 5 of the last 7 overall and 3 of the last 4 at home. They've also been tough at home in general, covering 12 of their last 16 at the host. The Bills need this one, as they're just a game ahead of the Jets and are tied with New England for the division lead.
Leans:
Atlanta / Oakland OVER 41 1/2
Indianapolis -6 1/2
Cleveland -2
Green Bay +4 1/2 Tennessee - The Titans could be the worst 7-0 team in the history of the NFL. That's not to say they're bad, because it's a good team, but their schedule has set up just perfectly. Out of three road games, two have come against Cincinnati and Kansas City...teams with a combined 1 win. The Titans haven't had 200 passing yards in any game this year, and they'll find the sledding particularly tough today against the Packers and their #6 ranked passing defense. Tennessee can muddy this game up, try to control the football, and make it a low scoring slugfest to move to 8-0...but they odds are slim that they can run away and win by a bunch of points. So, getting more than 4 is great in this spot.
Buffalo -5 NY Jets - The Bills try to bounce back from a loss last week to Miami as they return home to face a Jets team that has really not been very good away from home, standing at 1-2 SU and ATS to date. Buffalo has gotten the better of this series lately, covering 5 of the last 7 overall and 3 of the last 4 at home. They've also been tough at home in general, covering 12 of their last 16 at the host. The Bills need this one, as they're just a game ahead of the Jets and are tied with New England for the division lead.
Leans:
Atlanta / Oakland OVER 41 1/2
Indianapolis -6 1/2
Cleveland -2
Saturday, November 1, 2008
NCAA Week 10
Florida -6 1/2 Georgia - Don't be fooled by the big road win the Bulldogs pulled off last week, that was against an extraordinarily overrated LSU team. Georgia has covered only 1 of their last 4, including a SU beatdown at the hands of Alabama and a struggle between the hedges against a bad Tennessee team. On the flip side, Florida has been a bettor's dream, going 6-1 against the number and playing particularly pissed off after losing to Ole Miss. This is the best team in the SEC, they have a realistic shot at playing for the national title, and they'll play very well in the World's Largest Cocktail Party.
Georgia Tech - 2 Florida State - I'm not convinced on Florida State, and apparently I'm not the only one. It's pretty rare that a team ranked 15 or 16 goes on the road against an unranked team and is an underdog. The Seminoles opened as a 1 point favorite and money rolled in on the Yellow Jackets, who are in a bounce-back spot. The last time Georgia Tech played coming off a loss they won by 31 as an 8 point favorite, and they're 5-1 ATS on the year, with 3 of those wins coming by more than a score.
Kansas / Kansas State OVER 68 - Two offenses that are pretty efficient, ranked #17 and #27 in total offense, go against two defenses that can't do crap about it, ranked #88 and #109 in total defense. The Jayhawks probably aren't as bad defensively as they looked last week, but they really aren't very good, either. K-State's defense is an undersized bunch that can regularly give up ball-control possessions along with the occasional big play, but they're special teams can kick in with scores and short fields. There will be lots of scoring in this one.
Northwestern +7 1/2 Minnesota - Speaking of teams I'm not convinced on, as can happen in crappy conferences like the Big Ten, the Golden Gophers have rolled through their schedule playing only one ranked team (and losing). Now, does that mean that the Wildcats are the team that will come in and end the dream? Not exactly, but Minnesota shouldn't be getting more than a touchdown here. Minnesota has covered 6 straight and has picked up a lot of the betting public, which is how this line moved across the magic 7 number. It should be low scoring and close, so I'll take the points in this spot.
Tulsa -7 Arkansas - Arkansas has had the hell beaten out of them by every good team they've played. Meanwhile, Tulsa rolls into town 6-1 against the number and piling up points like crazy. These teams have different motivations here. For Arkansas, this is a diversion from SEC play against a small conference squad which, even though Tulsa is ranked, it a tough spot to get up in. Tulsa sees this is an opportunity to spank a BCS conference team in their house to gain some credibility. Tulsa's offense is legit, currently leading the nation in total offense, and will score some points in this game. This matchup will hinge on what happens when the Razorbacks have the ball. They'll have some success, as Tulsa's defense isn't very good, but they'll have trouble keeping pace.
Georgia Tech - 2 Florida State - I'm not convinced on Florida State, and apparently I'm not the only one. It's pretty rare that a team ranked 15 or 16 goes on the road against an unranked team and is an underdog. The Seminoles opened as a 1 point favorite and money rolled in on the Yellow Jackets, who are in a bounce-back spot. The last time Georgia Tech played coming off a loss they won by 31 as an 8 point favorite, and they're 5-1 ATS on the year, with 3 of those wins coming by more than a score.
Kansas / Kansas State OVER 68 - Two offenses that are pretty efficient, ranked #17 and #27 in total offense, go against two defenses that can't do crap about it, ranked #88 and #109 in total defense. The Jayhawks probably aren't as bad defensively as they looked last week, but they really aren't very good, either. K-State's defense is an undersized bunch that can regularly give up ball-control possessions along with the occasional big play, but they're special teams can kick in with scores and short fields. There will be lots of scoring in this one.
Northwestern +7 1/2 Minnesota - Speaking of teams I'm not convinced on, as can happen in crappy conferences like the Big Ten, the Golden Gophers have rolled through their schedule playing only one ranked team (and losing). Now, does that mean that the Wildcats are the team that will come in and end the dream? Not exactly, but Minnesota shouldn't be getting more than a touchdown here. Minnesota has covered 6 straight and has picked up a lot of the betting public, which is how this line moved across the magic 7 number. It should be low scoring and close, so I'll take the points in this spot.
Tulsa -7 Arkansas - Arkansas has had the hell beaten out of them by every good team they've played. Meanwhile, Tulsa rolls into town 6-1 against the number and piling up points like crazy. These teams have different motivations here. For Arkansas, this is a diversion from SEC play against a small conference squad which, even though Tulsa is ranked, it a tough spot to get up in. Tulsa sees this is an opportunity to spank a BCS conference team in their house to gain some credibility. Tulsa's offense is legit, currently leading the nation in total offense, and will score some points in this game. This matchup will hinge on what happens when the Razorbacks have the ball. They'll have some success, as Tulsa's defense isn't very good, but they'll have trouble keeping pace.
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