NFL: Week 13

Too close to kickoff for writeups...

Carolina -4 Tampa Bay
NY Giants +2 Dallas
Chicago -9 St Louis
New England -5 Miami

NCAA Championship Saturday

Florida -5 1/2 Alabama - The Crimson Tide has spent the whole season with an offense that is a little out of place on an elite team. They're just 40th nationally in total offense, which is quite low for an unbeaten team (by comparison, Florida is the next to worst unbeaten offense at 12th nationally). Florida is outstanding in these "big game" spots, as they're 10-1 ATS and 9-2 SU in their last 11 as a single digit favorite (10 of those games) or underdog.

Texas/Nebraska UNDER 47 - Both of these defenses are legit and both offenses should find tough sledding today. Nebraska predicates their offense behind Roy Helu Jr and the running game, but he'll be facing the nation's best rushing defense today (UT allows just 62 yards per game and under 2 YPC). It will be even more interesting when Texas has the ball. Nebraska will be the first team since Oklahoma that will be able to rush the passer with their front 4 and be able to contain Jordan Shipley without doing anything abnormal in the secondary.

Rutgers -2 West Virginia - The Mountaineers being propped up a bit by last week's big win over Pitt, but that game was at home and they had 2 weeks to prepare. These teams are virtually identical, so the home team action is appealing to me. Rutgers has lost 14 straight to West Virginia, so this is a huge game for them, but the stat is a little misleading as Rutgers only recently got good. They've covered 2 of the last 3 in this series and have won 4 straight on senior day.

Cincinnati -2 1/2 Pittsburgh - Cincy has been a little shaky down the stretch (0-3 ATS in the last 3 weeks). However, I think they've been looking ahead to this one a bit, they should be refocused now that it appears they'll need a win to go to their 2nd straight BCS bowl, and I really don't believe in Pitt.

Leans:

Arizona +7
Houston -2 1/2
Georgia Tech PK

Tuesday Night Hoops

Michigan State +1 1/2 North Carolina - Rematch of the title game from last year, Sparty has had this one circled on the calendar for some time.

NFL: Week 11

New England -10 NY Jets - The Jets have had the Patriots number recently, but their win over the Pats in week 2 was the last time they've played well (not counting pounding Oakland, which really shouldn't count). They catch New England in a bounce back spot here after the disappointing Sunday night loss against the Colts. An agitated Patriot team against a struggling Jets team, means you go against the matchup trend here (Jets have covered 3 of the last 5 in Foxboro).

San Diego -5 Denver - If you read this blog regularly, you'll know I really don't believe in the Broncos. At all. They've now lost 3 straight and host a (relatively) hot Charger team. I'll continue to be on the other side until they pull out of this slide. San Diego is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 in this series.

Indianapolis -1 1/2 Baltimore - This number feels like a classic Vegas trap, but I'm falling for it. Peyton is playing as well as he has in his career, but Baltimore is a pretty good (if underachieving) team. Still, you have to like Indy laying almost no points until they eventually get beat. Baltimore is still pretty effective against the run, but they're no longer elite against the pass (13th in the league). The Colts have won and covered 5 straight in this series.

Seattle +11 Minnesota - This one just feels like too many points, but I don't have any real insight. I get the impression that the Vikings are a little overrated, but they're going to cruise to some wins and a nice shiny record before Favre has a meltdown and rips their fans' hearts out. It's going to happen.

NY Giants -7 Atlanta - Atlanta is a team that I think is better than their records, but Matt Ryan is suffering a bit of a sophomore slump and he'll face the #2 passing defense in the league today. They travel to a tough spot, as the Giants have lost 4 straight and have had the BYE week to get ready. The Falcons are 1-4 SU on the road, and the Giants have covered the last won and covered their last 2 against Atlanta.

Leans:

Oakland +9 1/2
Buffalo +8 1/2

NCAA Football: Week 12

Georgia -9 1/2 Kentucky - The Wildcats have been a bettor's charm over the last several weeks, and they've spent the year getting a lot of sharp money behind them, which has all smeared the fact that they really don't have a good win. In a battle of teams trying to scratch out their 7th win to secure a bowl, when the superior team is at home, I'll lay the points. The Bulldogs have won 11 of the last 12 in this series and have covered 4 of the last 5 between the hedges.

South Florida -12 Louisville - Bounce back spot for South Florida, who had looked good all year until they laid an egg at Rutgers last week. They've got an extra couple of days to prepare, following the Thursday night game, and they get to host a Louisville team that is 0-5 on the road. The home team has won 6 straight in this series, including the Cardinals getting blown out in their last couple trips to Tampa.

Ole Miss -4 LSU - I've been waiting all year for a spot where the overratedness of LSU could make me some money...that day is today. The Rebels have had a bit of a disappointing season, and LSU has overachieved, but Ole Miss is still the better team in this matchup. Preseason, this line would have been double-digits, and I'm not convinced that either one of these teams has shown enough different from projection to move it a touchdown off of that. So, I'll play the value. The Rebels are 7-1 against the number in their last 8 against LSU.

Kansas State +17 Nebraska - The Cornhuskers are obviously the better team here, but this is a bunch of points. Both teams are ground oriented offensively, and Nebraska's strategy in general is the run the ball and play defense, so much so that they haven't won a Big 12 game by this number all year. K-State will employ the strategy they used against KU which will limit possession count and shorten the game. They also won't beat themselves (19th nationally in turnover margin) and can attack Nebraska in special teams (6th nationally on kick returns). The Wildcats have covered 6 of the last 9 in this series.

Connecticut +7 Notre Dame - The Fighting Irish are against among the most overrated teams in the country, at just 3-7 against the number. On the flip side, UConn as much better than their (SU) record indicates, as they've been in every game, including providing scares to both Pitt and Cincy, and they lead he nation in record against the spread at 7-1. Charlie Weis is the other jumbo sized coach nationally that's about to lose his job, which brings me to.....

Texas -27 Kansas - The Jayhawks are a mess. Picked by many (including myself) to win the Big 12 North, they've suffering through their most disappointing "high expectation" season since '96. Add in the rumblings about Mangino's job, and the unlikelihood of the very players that hate him rallying around him, and KU is in a tough spot. It gets worse. Texas's early season troubles have been erased, and they're finally playing good football on both sides of the ball. They're a bad matchup for KU, anyway...having ended it by halftime in each of the last 2 in this series in Austin and covering 6 of the last 7 overall. This is going to suck.

Leans:

Oklahoma -6
North Carolina +3 1/2
Michigan +12
Virginia Tech -21

NFL: Week 10

Atlanta -2 Carolina - You can pretty much repeat what I wrote about the Falcons game last week, except they're now 6-2 ATS, and they aren't playing a team coming off a BYE. Atlanta still doesn't have a bad loss and have shown a good ability to win the games they should. Carolina has played better the last two weeks, but I'm still not sold on them. Atlanta has covered 3 of the last 4 in this series, and the Panthers are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS at home this season.

Jacksonville +7 NY Jets - I don't really think the Jags are very good, but the Jets have looked impressive exactly once since the hot start early, and that once was against the Raiders. The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite and have lost 6 of those outright, including 2 outright losses as more than a touchdown favorite. Jacksonville has covered 5 straight in this series.

Miami -10 Tampa Bay - The debut of Josh Freeman went better than I expected last week, but he was aided greatly by two DST touchdowns. The Packers outgained them by more than 100, just couldn't overcome 3 turnovers and a blocked punt. Miami is as good of a 3-5 team as there is...the losses are all to good teams and they've had the misfortune of playing both Indy and New Orleans at home. So, expect a bounce-back game for the Dolphins after last week's loss at NE and expect the Freeman era to regress to the mean a little bit.

Leans:

Dallas -3: GB not good, but Dallas not great on 2nd week of back-to-back roadies
Kansas City +2: I guess KC is THAT BAD, but Oakland laying points is funny
Washington +4: NFL's top pass defense gets a shot at Kyle Orton. I still don't believe in Denver

NCAA Football: Week 11

Kansas/Nebraska UNDER 43 - The Cornhuskers are 11th nationally in total defense and they're really good against the run, so offensive success today will fall on Todd Reesing's shoulders. Nebraska's offense has stuggled to find some consistency, Roy Helu Jr hasn't really been healthy, and the Jayhawk defense has been improving. Expect a short field or two after big plays by the defense, but don't expect long, sustained drives. In Big 12 games involving one of these teams this year, the UNDER is 8-2, it's covered 3 straight in KU games and 5 straight in Nebraska games.

Virginia Tech -19 Maryland - A couple extra days to prepare for the Hokies as they try to get their offense back on track. Maryland is just a trainwreck of a football team, having only played well once all season (an upset of Clemson...their only FBS win). Maryland is 3-6 against the number, and VaTech has won and covered 4 straight in this series by an average of 26 points.

Leans:

Kentucky -3 1/2
Ohio +1 1/2
Miami -3
Michigan +8 1/2

Friday Night Two-fer

Cincinnati -9 1/2 West Virginia - The Bearcats let an overmatched UConn team hang around a little too much last week. They'll play better tonight, as they're approaching the point where they need style points.

Kansas -27 1/2 Hofstra - The season opener for the #1 Jayhawks. Hofstra has been a team that fairly consistently makes the tournament, but they lost a lot off last year's team and it'll be a tall order to keep it competitive tonight in Lawrence.

NFL: Week 9

Atlanta -9 Washington - Going against the line movement here, but the Falcons are a pretty good 4-3 team coming off to back-to-back losses and need a win here. Washington is coming off a BYE, but they haven't been impressive in any game this season, really. Atlanta is 5-2 against the number, including a perfect 4-0 at home, and they should play well today. Not much history in this series, but the Falcons won and covered the only recent meeting (back in '06).

Houston +8 1/2 Indianapolis - Since the Houston loss to Jacksonville, they've put together the resume of a pretty decent football team. The Colts have been impressive, particularly in workmanlike destruction of bad teams, but they've been just OK against teams with enough firepower to hang with them. The Texan offense meets that description and the defense has actually been better than I thought. Houston is 3-1-1 in the last 5 in the series and is 3-1 ATS away from home this year.

Baltimore -3 Cincinnati - I'm still not totally sold on the Bengals. They're 5-2, and you are what your record says, but this game is an absolute must-win for the Ravens who, since they've already lost one to the Bengals...can't afford to fall what would realistically be 3 games back. I think they're a good team, and good teams play very well in spots like this.

Kansas City / Jacksonville UNDER 41 1/2 - Neither team is an offensive juggernaut, certainly...the Chiefs have only hit the 20 point mark twice this season, and in one of those games they were aided by 2 turnovers that made it impossible not to score. Jacksonville has broken out with a couple decent offensive performances, but they seem to be the exception and not the rule.

NFL: Week 8

No real writeups. The kick to the taint I took yesterday will do that to you.

Green Bay/Minnesota OVER 47 - Two potent offenses, the potential that Favre tries to do a little too much.

Green Bay -3 Minnesota - Aaron Rodgers had a lot of success in the game in Minnesota, and Favre played his best game.

Miami +3 1/2 NY Jets - Dolphins quietly putting together a decent team, even after last week's meltdown.

Jacksonville +3 Tennessee - Vince Young is back at the helm, HOORAY!!!

NY Giants -1 Philadephia - Brian Westbrook won't play with the after-effect of a concussion. McNabb will have to carry the load.

Denver/Baltimore UNDER 42 - #3 and #7 in rushing defense means we're heavily Orton v Flacco.

Houston -3 1/2 Buffalo - The Texans have started to play better, and back-to-back Buffalo wins are holding this number down.

NCAA Football: Week 9

San Diego State -16 New Mexico - The Lobos are tied for last in the nation with a 1-6 record ATS this season (0-7 overall), and the cover was a 20 point loss when they just happened to be getting 5 touchdowns. They've lost their 3 road games by an average of 26 points. The Aztecs meanwhile, have covered 4 straight games, 5 of their last 7 at home, and 4 of their last 5 as a home favorite. New Mexico has covered 7 of the last 8 in this series, including a 70-7 drubbing last year...the San Diego State gets to exercise some of those demons against a terrible team today.

Houston -6 1/2 Southern Miss - Outside of Houston's inexplicable loss to UTEP, in a week where they spent a lot of time answering BCS buster questions, they've been a covering machine. They're 5-1 against the number, they're 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home, and they're 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home in this series. The Golden Eagles are 1-2 ATS (0-3 SU) on the road for the season.

Michigan/Illinois OVER 54 - When Michigan has the ball, the 2nd ranked total offense in the Big Ten is going against the worst total defense in the conference, so the Wolverines will score. When Illinois has the ball, they're up against a below average defense, ranked 72nd nationally and allowing a generous 3.8 yards/carry on the ground. Both teams are minus on the year on turnovers, providing ample opportunity for a couple of short fields today.

Michigan -7 Illinois - As I said above, when Michigan has the ball...they're starting across the line of scrimmage at the worst defense in the conference. Michigan is #2 in the Big Ten offensively and #1 on the ground, the Illini counter with last and last. Illinois has a shot to score some points in this game, hence the bet on the over, but Michigan is likely to get more stops and to be able to make sure they come away with touchdowns when they get in the redzone. The Wolverines have covered 4 of the last 6 in this series and have won 6 of the last 7 outright. Illinois is just 1-5 ATS on the season and they've covered just 2 of their last 11 overall.

Colorado +3 1/2 Missouri - I'm not sure Gary Pinkel has the ability to right the ship with this bunch after the demoralizing loss they suffered against Nebraska with the game well in hand. I'm certainly not sure he can do it on the road against a team with a pretty feisty defense. And for as good as Missouri has been the last couple of years, they haven't exactly dominated the Buffaloes, as CU is 4-1 SU in their last 5 in Boulder in this series and have covered 6 of the last 9 against the Tigers overall.

Florida State -10 North Carolina State - The Seminoles aren't very good, but NC State is REALLY not very good...so much so that they have all of one win against an FBS team. They are coming off a BYE week, but since FSU played last Thursday and are at home today, they've had a little extended week to get ready.

Oklahoma -27 1/2 Kansas State - The Wildcats are 104th nationally in passing offense. Do you think they're going to run the ball against OU's defense? Me neither.

Leans:

Iowa State +6
Georgia +15
Nebraska -14
UCLA +9 1/2

NCAA Football: Week 8

Duke -4 Maryland - Duke has shows flashes of decent football, while Maryland has one Saturday outlier (win over Clemson) in a whole season of suck. The Blue Devils have lost 5 straight at home in this series, but this is just the sort of terrible Maryland team to exercise some demons against. The Terrapins have only covered 1 of their last 5 away from home and are 1-5 against the number this season. Duke has covered 3 of their last 4 as a home favorite, is also 3-1 ATS for this season, with the only loss came on a late TD at Kansas in a game where they were -2 in turnovers. Duke has quietly become a well-coached (if still sometimes outmanned) football team, and should pick up a solid win today.

Texas Tech -21 1/2 Texas A&M - Tech has finally got the offense going a bit with the new personnel and is coming off an impressive win in Lincoln. The Aggies are coming off one of the most embarassing, unprepared, and uninspired performances I've seen since, well...the Aggies bent over and took it from Oklahoma a few years back. Now they head to Lubbock, where they're hated a lot more than they do the hating, and they've failed to cover in their last 5 trips. The Red Raiders are dominating this series since the Big 12 was formed, going 11-3 ATS over that time.

Oklahoma State -9 1/2 Baylor - I'm going to need to see some life out of the post-Robert Griffin Baylor offense before I start giving them the sort of respect they're getting here. Okie State is in a slight look-ahead spot here, with Texas looming next weekend, but I think their effort has been consistent enough to not worry about that, especially against a team that doesn't have enough offense to match scores with them. Baylor has only beaten the Cowboys once in their last 13 tries and are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 in the series. Oklahoma State has covered 7 of their last 10 away from home, including 3 out of 4 when they're the favorite.

Leans:

Alabama -14
Louisville +18
Northwestern -5
Boston College +7 1/2
Air Force +9 1/2

NCAA Football: Week 7

Texas -3 Oklahoma - Both teams have spent much of the season so far looking a bit lethargic, with OU suffering a couple of close losses to decent teams and Texas beating everybody their supposed to…with mixed opinions on how good the team has been. But, the Sooners were doing it without their Heisman trophy winning quarterback, and the Longhorns haven't REALLY had an occasion to give an inspired performance. Neither offense is totally trustable, after OU replaced 4 starters on the offensive line and Texas struggles to find a consistent rushing attack to relieve some pressure off Colt McCoy. And both defenses have looked good, though it's a little hard to tell with Texas how much of that is schedule related, with UT ranked 4th and OU 9th nationally (1st and 3rd against the run, respectively). Both teams will be able to get pressure with their front 4 and both QBs will have to make quick decisions getting rid of the football. And so the game comes down to which QB has a go-to receiver, and that would be Texas with Jordan Shipley. A healthy Jermaine Gresham is worth about a touchdown and would have made OU a bit of a favorite here, but without him…OU doesn't have a reliable way to convert third downs through the air, and the UT front 7 is too tough to count on the necessary rushing yardage. The Horns make more big plays and win by a couple scores. Texas is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series and OU has covered just 2 of their last 11 on neutral fields if you exclude the basically annual beating they give the Big 12 North in the Big 12 title game.

Colorado +10 Kansas - Colorado's defense has been legit, if a little overworked due to their offense not being able to stay on the field for long stretches. That offense should find sledding a little easier this week as they face the 57th ranked total defense…a number that's inflated by the less-than-challenging schedule the Jayhawks have played thus far. KU's defensive problems so far have mostly involved poor linebacker play, which doesn't bode well at all for shutting a team down that likes to build off of its running game and that made a change at quarterback, meaning there's very little film available on how the Buffs will use him. If KU can get the offense going early, get a couple of defensive stops, and hit Colorado in the mouth early…this one could really get going their way. That's a bunch of ifs with this many points available. Colorado is 5-1 against KU in the last 6 matchups in Boulder.

Wisconsin -2 1/2 Iowa - The Hawkeyes enjoy a high ranked based on really one game at Penn State, a nice win to be sure, but there are lots of reasons to question how good Penn State is…especially offensively, but Iowa was outgunned in that ballgame but was +2 in turnovers. The glaring fact is that Iowa has 1 good performance and 3 bad ones that they've narrowly escaped. Wisconsin is a good, not great, team in a bounce-back spot after losing to Ohio State last week and they traditionally play well at home. The Badgers have won 2 of the last 3 and 4 of the last 6 in this series.

Minnesota +17 1/2 Penn State - Speaking of the Nittany Lions being questionable on how good they are, this seems like a lot of points to be giving up considering that Minnesota has the most explosive offensive player on either team, they've been a solid, hard to blow out team in scratching out a 4-2 record thus far, and Penn State is a dismal 1-4 against the number…with the only win being against a terrible Illinois team in a bounce-back spot after losing to Iowa. Penn State has essentially had two weeks to prepare, after disposing of an FCS opponent last week, but the Gophers are well coached, they don't make mistakes, and they don't do things to beat themselves. Beating a team like that by 3 touchdowns in a tall order. Minnesota has won 4 of the last 6 outright against Penn State and have covered 6 of the last 8. Penn State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

USC -10 Notre Dame - Short and Sweet write-up…I don't believe in Notre Dame. They're the serendipitous college version of the Denver Broncos this year, and a team with the kind of talent the Trojans throw at you can and will wear them out. Vegas loves the Irish, to the tune of inflating every number such that they're 1-4 against the spread, having lost 4 straight. The Trojans have covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and 4 of the last 6 in South Bend. Notre Dame has covered in just 2 of their last 10 games overall.

Leans:

Nebraska -10
Oklahoma State -7
Ball State +3

NFL: Week 5

Lots of big favorites this week, making for a bunch of games to stay away from...

Dallas -7 Kansas City - The Cowboys aren't as good as they were supposed to be, but the Chiefs are living up to their billing. Romo in a bounce-back spot after two bad weeks in a row, and gets to play a defense that plays hard but doesn't generate much pass rush (ranking just 26th in the league in sacks). Also, the Chiefs should be bet against every week until we know Vegas has valued them properly.

New England -3 Denver - The Broncos are the worst 4-0 team in NFL history and eventually the horseshoe has to fall out of their ass. You'd have to call Cincy their best win, on a fluky tipped miracle, and their offense has shown a lot of weakness, only topping 17 points twice and against two of the worst five teams in football. The Patriots have covered 6 of their last 9 as a FG favorite or less. Denver has covered 2 of their last 9 at home.

Washinton +4 1/2 Carolina - The Panthers coming off the early BYE week, but they're a team in disarray right now. The Redskins haven't played well in any game, yet...but have scratched out a 2-2 record, so far. With Jake Delhomme playing terrible, I'm not sure Carolina can find a balanced enough attack to be good offensively. The Skins are 3-1-1 in their last 5 as a road dog.

NCAA Football: Week 6

Minnesota -3 Purdue - The Boilermakers have suffered some close losses this year and are at a tipping point where they either fight for a couple of gutsy wins or pack it in and figure themselves to be a hard-luck team. The problem this week is they play a pretty good Minnesota team on the road, on their homecoming, and the Gophers are coming off a tough loss of their own against Wisconsin...just a bad spot for Purdue to try to get right. Minnesota is 2-1-1 in their last 4 against Purdue, and the Boilermakers are 1-5-1 ATS when they're getting less than 10 on the road.

Indiana +7 Virginia - The Hoosiers hit the road against after a decisive loss at home to Ohio State last week. A bit of an overreaction line here after Virginia showed signs of life in a win against North Carolina last week. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last 3 at home and is just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 chances as a favorite. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-1 against the number on the season and has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.

Oklahoma State -4 1/2 Texas A&M - Okie State misses Dez Bryant, due to some alleged contact with Neon Deion, but they're still a dynamic offense and a defense that can be exposed against spread-oriented teams but that is solid and improving against more traditional styles. The Aggies have failed to cover 4 straight (and 7 of their last 9) as an underdog.

Arkansas +3 Auburn - This is a value play for a couple of reasons, first Auburn is 5-0 on the season, 4-1 against the number, and generally generating a lot of action behind them for a team that has only been on the road once, where they beat a bad Tennessee team in a close game. Second, Arkansas won a narrow 3 point game last year but hidden in that is that the Razorbacks outgained the Tigers 416-193 in that game and it was a total fluke that Auburn kept it that close.

Georgia +1 Tennessee - Speaking of the Vols, and staying in the SEC, Tennessee's high point of the season was figuring out that Florida can't hurt you on the edges and avoiding getting blown out. When "we kept it under 2 touchdowns" is the highlight of your resume, you're not very good and you shouldn't be laying points to Georgia. The Bulldogs have a couple of decent wins at Arkansas and against South Carolina. Both of their losses were to fairly legit football teams. The Vols have two wins to their credit against Western Kentucky and Ohio. Until proven otherwise, Georgia is the better team here.

Oklahoma -28 Baylor - Sam Bradford is going to play, and it's anyone's guess as to how effective he'll be trying to shake the rust off, but the important matchup in this game is figuring out how Baylor is going to move the ball without Robert Griffin against a fierce Sooner defense. OU has uncharacteristically lost two games already, and they've got Texas looming in Big D next week, but they're 6th nationally in rushing defense and Baylor is a team that relies on running the ball to keep the chains moving. OU averages a 43-12 margin against Baylor since the arrival of Bob Stoops. The Sooners have covered 7 of their last 8 in Norman.

Leans:

Michigan +8
San Jose State -4
UTEP -2
Texas Tech -16
Akron +3 1/2

NFL: Week 4

No writeups again this week...more laziness than not having time, but whatever...

Baltimore +2 New England
Buffalo PK Miami
Green Bay +4 Minnesota
San Diego +7 Pittsburgh
Tennessee -3 Jacksonville
NY Giants -9 Kansas City
San Francisco -9 1/2 St Louis

NCAA Football: Week 5

Limited plays for tonight. I'll be watching line movements to add another play or two from my leans or otherwise. Pretty light week in college but likely a heavy week in the NFL. Good Luck.

Iowa State -2 1/2 Kansas State - The Cyclones are 3-1 against the number, while K-State really hasn't shown much fight against their FBS opponents. Iowa State has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, pretty much coinciding with the Wildcats not being good any more, and that trend continues to be true.

Arkansas -1 Texas A&M - This number should be at least 4 or 5. The Aggies roll in as a team that wasn't very good last year and hasn't been tested at all, yet. The Razorbacks played a shootout and lost with Georgia and were railroaded by Alabama, who looks like something resembling the best team in the country so far. Great bounce-back spot for Arkansas against a team that isn't as good as Vegas perceives them so far.

Florida Atlantic -3 1/2 Wyoming - Still a little too much love in the world based on one half disinterested football by Texas. FAU hasn't covered, yet but it's mostly based on difficulty of schedule and a little bad luck. Wyoming is also 0-3 against the number, but it's basically forgotten by them being competitive with the Horns for one half. This number should be 6+...valuable play here.

Leans:

Auburn +2
Arkansas State +22
Michigan State -3 1/2
Navy -3
Washington +12
Central Michigan -8

Monday Night Football

Carolina +9 Dallas - The Panthers have started slow this season after having everybody back from a 12-4 playoff team. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that they actually outgained the Falcons in Atlanta last week. Carolina has the two best offensive players in the game in Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams. Last week, the Cowboys struggled to handle the crappy Steven Smith, and they're unlikely to fair any better tonight. Add in the fact that Marion Barber isn't expected to play, putting a bit more pressure on Romo to perform, and it looks like the Cowboys are way overvalued in this spot. Just too many points. The Cowboys were 2-3 ATS as more than a touchdown favorite last year and lost two of the games outright. Carolina has won and covered 4 straight when they're spending their 2nd straight week on the road.

NFL: Week 3

No writeups this week, as I don't have enough time. Here's the plays...

Tennessee +3 NY Jets - The Titans season is hanging in the balance and their defense is good enough to test Sanchez
Chicago -2 1/2 Seattle - Seattle a tough place to win but Cutler looked more comfortable last week.
Denver -1 1/2 Oakland - Oakland is bad enough to need points in just about ever game. Not getting enough here.
Philadelphia -7 1/2 Kansas City - Eagles can't have enough guys hurt to help the Chiefs here.
Cleveland +14 Baltimore - Lots of points...strictly a play because I had it capped at 10 1/2.
San Diego -5 1/2 Miami - I don't believe in Miami, and the Bolts are in a classic bounce-back spot.

NCAA Football: Week 4

Buffalo +3 1/2 Temple - Wrong Team Favored. Both teams return 15 starters and this line is being affected by the fact that the Bulls needed a hail mary at the end of the game last year to get by the Owls. Lost in that is that Buffalo is 12-1 all-time against Temple, and this Temple team was bad enough to lose to FCS Villanova. Buffalo comes in having lost two straight, at home to Pitt and at Central Florida, while Temple comes in after having a covered against Penn State in a game that they drastically trailed in total yardage until moving it some in garbage time.

Florida State -14 South Florida - Matt Grothe will miss the rest of the season with an injury to his knee, and he's taken pretty much every Bull snap for the last 3+ years since winning the job early as a true freshman, including leading the team in passing and rushing for most of that time. They'll have trouble replacing him seamlessly. The Seminoles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 at home against non-conference opponents, and South Florida is 4-7 against the number in their last 11 away from home.

Utah -14 Louisville - The Utes in a bounce-back spot after their first loss since 2007 last week at Oregon. Utah is 0-3 ATS on the season, which will trend money away from them and make them a value play here. Louisville is in a bit of a letdown spot after a close, hard-fought, emotional loss to hated rival Kentucky last week. The Utes have covered 3 of the last 4 at home, has won their last 6 against the Big East, and is 3-0 against Louisville. The Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 away from home, covering in 3 of those game.

Minnesota PK Northwestern - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a bowl team, and I still think they'll ultimately be improved. They lost at home to Northwestern last year, which is why the Wildcats opened as a favorite, but they've improved more than Northwestern has. The Wildcats hold the head-to-head trend edge, but Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 away from home.

Leans:

Georgia / Arizona State UNDER 50 1/2
Georgia Tech -3 North Carolina
Purdue +7 Notre Dame
Middle Tennessee -6 North Texas
Florida International PK Toledo

NFL: Week 2

Oakland +3 Kansas City - The Raiders showed a bit of a pulse on Monday night against San Diego, so maybe this team won't be as bad as we thought. More importantly, the Chiefs put some non-traditional points on the board against Baltimore to stay in the game...which is whey they're getting the edge here. Home Field Advantage means nothing in this series, with the visitors winning 5 straight outright (the last 4 as a dog of a 3 or more) and the Raiders have covered their last 3 trips to Arrowhead.

Denver / Cleveland UNDER 38 1/2 - Both teams really labored to score in week 1, and I suspect it's because both offenses just aren't very good. Brady Quinn has never materialized as a QB you can count on to sustain drives, and he'll be facing a Denver defense that looked pretty solid in holding the Bengals to 7 points. Kyle Orton reminded us last week that he's certainly not Jay Cutler and that you don't choose a quarterback based on emotion. The UNDER is 4-2-1 in the last 7 games involving the Browns.

New England / NY Jets OVER 45 1/2 - The Jets offense showed signs of life last week in Houston, and he returns home to be supported by a raucous crowd in his first start at the Meadowlands. On Monday night, the Patriots showed that their defense will be a little bit suspect but that the offense can still get it going. This game could turn into a track meet...with the one question being is the Jets defense really as good as it looked in holding a good Houston team in check. I think it could be a good unit, but it can't play that well two weeks in a row. The OVER has paid in 7 of the last 8 Pats games and is 6-4-1 in the last 11 involving the Jets.

San Diego -3 Baltimore - The Chargers defense was 11th against the run last year and 31st against the pass, so it's a defense pretty well suited to give trouble to Joe Flacco and the Ravens' run-oriented attack. Baltimore played 5 teams with a rushing defense in the top dozen last year and averaged barely over 15 points in those games. LT is hurt, so (I can't believe I'm going to write this), Darren Sproles will get more touches and provide more explosiveness to the San Diego offense.

NY Giants +3 Dallas - There will be a lot of festivities around the regular season debut of the Jerryland, but I just can't see how Dallas is favored here. This is still a 9-7 team that plays tremendously inconsistent football and generally has lines skewed toward them (they were underdogs only 3 times last year in losing those 7 games). The Giants, on the other hand, generally you pretty consistent effort, were a 12-4 team last year, and generally play just as well away from home as they do in Jersey (6-2 ATS last year on the road). The Cowboys are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the NFC East. Either the big Dallas win last year is holding this number artificially or I'm falling for a Vegas trap. We'll see tonight.

Leans:

Jacksonville -3
Chicago +3
New Orleans -1
Tennessee -7

Open Letter to ESPN

Dear Bristol,

This week, I've seen Tim Teabow's "speech" from the press conference after the Ole Miss game last year multiple times on your network. If you're trying to make him look like a warrior, you're not. That footage is of a petulant child struggling with disappointment. He looks considerably more like the 12 year old you see with tears in his eyes after the Little League World Series than he does a Heisman winner, adult, and leader of a college football team. "No one will play harder than me, and I'll make sure these guys play hard, too" isn't leadership. You'd think Teabow was the first great player that has ever had to deal with a hard fought loss before. Being a member of your team made available for the postgame press conference, making a speech, and not taking any questions is bush league...it's not something to be celebrated.

Look, Teabow is a great player and by all accounts a great person. But that outburst last year was a long way from his best moment.

Respectfully,

Most College Football Fans Outside of Gainesville

NCAA Football: Week 3

Akron -2 1/2 Indiana - Good spot for the Zips here. After taking their lumps in week 1 against a good Penn State team, they got healthy against an FCS opponent last week. Indiana looked to be improved against a questionable Western Michigan team after opening in a very shaky Thursday night win against their FCS cupcake. They feel a little overvalued here. Akron plays well against BCS teams, covering 4 straight and 6 of their last 8. Indiana still needs to prove it away from home, where they've dropped 6 of their last 7 against the number and 10 of their last 12 straight up.

Texas -18 1/2 Texas Tech - This number just doesn't feel right to me. The Horns return virtually everybody off a team that was favored by 3 in Lubbock last year (a number that was about right...despite the loss). So, swing it 6 points for the home/road switch and you're telling me that Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are worth single digits? I'm not buying the Red Raiders, yet. They'll have to do it against a good team and/or away from home first. They have a chance to do both here. The Horns have covered 4 of the last 5 between these two in Austin. Tech is 1-7 against the number in their last 8 road games against a ranked opponent (for full disclosure...the 1 was a total beatdown in Lawrence). In the two UT games during that stretch, Tech has surrendered 111 points.

Nebraska / Virginia Tech UNDER 51 - This total is being propped artificially high by the 35-30 final last year. That game included a special team's touchdown, a 5 yard drive following an interception, and a terrific passing performance by Joe Ganz, who's not walking through that door. the Nebraska game was the ONLY game VaTech played last year that would have gone over this total. This game should play out a little more traditionally than that contest and, just as we're looking for from Texas Tech, it'll be interesting to see how the Corn's offense looks away from home and against a good defense.

Michigan State +10 Notre Dame - I still don't think I believe in the Dame, and the betting world is overreacting to Sparty's loss last week against one of the better QBs in the country that the average fan couldn't pick out of a lineup. MSU is still a 9 win team that returned 15 starters. They're also 9-3 in this series (9-2-1 ATS) and the road team has won 7 of the last 8 straight up, including 5 straight covers for State in South Bend. Go Green...Go White.

UCLA -12 1/2 Kansas State - UCLA has been bet against heavily the first two weeks, with the line moving against them by 6 and 4 1/2 before they went on to cover both times. This week they're backed heavily against a team that (how do I put this delicately for my purple readers) has looked like...they might not...be making...a New Year's Day bowl this year. After Bill Snyder rallied the troops for a come-from-behind opening win against UMass, the Cats dropped a heartbreaker on the road to Louisiana Lafayette. UCLA is probably overvalued here, but I think it takes another couple weeks before Vegas adjusts to K-State's badness. It won't take that long for Bill Snyder to fire whoever decided to have him on the road two weeks in a row in the non-conference.

Leans:

Arizona +4 Iowa
Urban Meyer's Ego -62 Lane Kiffin's Mouth
Kansas -23 Duke
Tulsa +18 Oklahoma
Virginia / Southern Miss UNDER 46
Baylor -10 Connecticut

Thursday Night ACC

A close to kickoff play...

Georgia Tech +4 Miami - The Tech offense is hard to prepare for on a short week, Miami is getting a little too much love for beating a Florida State team that really looked bad in week 2. The Ramblin' Wreck have covered 4 straight in this series and 4 of their last 5 away from home.

NFL: Week 1

Houston -4 1/2 NY Jets - Matt Sanchez makes his career start against a defense that isn't great, but the Texans are a team with some offensive firepower, finishing last season 3rd in the league in total offense. Houston ended last season on a run where they covered 6 of their last 7, while the Jets stumbled home, dropping their last 5 ATS.

Jacksonville +7 Indianapolis - The Jags cratered last season under the weight of high expectations, but they've always been a tough matchup for the Colts, winning outright in Indy last year in week 3. The offense should be improved with a heavier mix of Maurice Jones-Drew, especially catching it out of the backfield.

Green Bay -4 Chicago - The Bears improved their offense over the summer, but their defense is getting old. The Packers could be the breakout team of 2009 with an experienced Aaron Rodgers running the show surrounded by plus weapons in Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 away from home.

Leans:

Cleveland +4 Minnesota
Tampa Bay +5 1/2 Dallas
Baltimore -12 1/2 Kansas City

NCAA Kickoff Saturday

Illinois -6 1/2 Missouri - Illinois returns 8 starters on an offense that ended last season 19th in total offense. The Illini also, eventually, have to have a chip on their shoulder about how lopsided this series has been. This is the 5th time they've played each other to open the season in the last 8 season, and the Tigers have taken all 4 prior. Missouri doesn't overachieve much, having dropped 7 of their last 8 as an underdog.

Nevada +14 1/5 Notre Dame - Nevada returns 7 starters on each side of the ball from a team that lost a close game to Maryland last year in the Humanitarian Bowl. The Wolf Pack will hit Notre Dame with a balanced attack that was quietly 5th in the country in total offense. Notre Dame counters with more starters back (9 on O, 6 on D)...but off a team that wasn't as good. Neither unit was particularly impressive against a pretty easy schedule. In 2 games against teams that ended ranked, the Domers were outscored 61-10. Hard to see them settling in as a good football team in week 1. Notre Dame is 5-8 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, and Nevada has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.

Minnesota -7 Syracuse - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a team that won 7 games and qualified for the Insight Bowl, including most of the important pieces and the best player you've never heard of in wide receiver Eric Decker, who caught 84 balls last year for 1074 yards. Syracuse is best know for naming Duke's former point guard their starting QB. The Cuse has dropped 4 straight to the Big Ten against the number, and they've lost 6 of their last 7 home openers. On the flip side, Minnesota has covered 6 of their last 7 on the road.

Northern Illinois +16 1/2 Wisconsin - The thing that jumps out at you when you look at Northern Illinois is that they don't get blown out often. Last year it only happened once, against a good Ball State team. They put up a substantial fight in road games against Minnesota and Tennessee, which are teams that are in line with how good I expect Wisconsin to be this year. The Badgers entered last season ranked #13 and climbed into the top 10 before losing to Michigan and having their season spiral away into a 7-6 finish. This year's version might not even be as good as that one, as they are forced to replace PJ Hill and find some soltion to their QB problem. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a double digit favorite. The Huskies are 6-2-1 against the number in their last 9 against the Big Ten.

Leans:

Central Michigan +13 1/2
Wake Forest -2 1/2
Virginia Tech +6 1/2
Florida State -6

If you could bet on high school football:

Hutchison (KS) -up to a couple touchdowns Rockhurst (KC, MO)

Big 12 Football Preview

1. Texas Longhorns - The Horns caught a break when Jordan Shipley was granted his 9th year of eligibility, meaning they don't have to replace both wide outs. Quan Cosby is the only offensive threat that should really be missed, and he's not the sort of irreplaceable talent you really worry about. So, Texas returns most of the pieces from the squad that ended last season ranked 9th nationally in total offense (though just 5th in the Big 12, to give you an idea of just how much offense was running around the conference last year.). To be as good as they want to be, they'll probably need to find a more consistent rushing attack that Colt McCoy doing it on broken plays, and this offensive line has the experience to do it. The Longhorns do have to replace the defensive front 4 (though the back 7 is pretty much in tact). The biggest loss along that defensive line is Brian Orakpo, who went 13th in the NFL draft. He was a guy so good that he didn't just require double teams, he forced protection packages to shift entirely to account for him. This also let Sergio Kindle, likely the best player on this year's defense, to move around in different packages. Kindle probably has to shift into a more traditional role this year. Ultimately though, there just aren't enough question marks here to think that Texas will be any worse than they were last year, and the schedule is favorable. Barring major injury, Mack Brown can roll the ball out and get 10 wins with this group. The non conference schedule is squeezably soft, they only draw one of the two best teams from the north and it's in Austin, so there just aren't many potential trip ups here. Key Games: Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, Kansas.

2. Oklahoma Sooners - The Sooners return a lot of pieces but they lose 4 starters from an offensive line that played together for the better part of 3 years and anchored the nation's 3rd best offense. If you're only going to return one guy off an offensive line, the left tackle (Trent Williams) is a good piece to build around. In addition to finding a couple of offensive linemen, they'll need to replace two of Sam Bradford's 3 favorite receivers from last year. All-Universe tight end Jermaine Gresham is back, and gives the offense a threat over the middle of the field that has to be handled with a nickel package or by committing a safety. But the two leading outside threats are gone in Iglesias and Johnson. Ryan Broyles, a smallish speed guy, showed a lot of promise as a freshman last year and is the mostly likely guy to find himself as the #1 receiver. The defense returns lots of key pieces and could be a strength. That unit will be anchored by Gerald McCoy, maybe the best interior tackle in the country, and Auston English, who led the Big 12 in sacks last year. The Sooners fit into the #2 spot because the schedule is a little tougher and they have more question marks than Texas. OU plays both of the north's two best teams, and both on the road, though if they're as good as they SHOULD be...the Red River Shootout could be their only test, but if they have trouble replacing some important pieces, suddenly quite a few of their games get pretty tough. Key Games: Texas, at Kansas, at Nebraska, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys - The Cowboys pick an interesting season to have their best offense since Barry Sanders was in town. The defense loses only the pieces that weren't very good, 3 of the 4 members of the secondary are gone, and they've absolutely got to find a way to improve upon the nation's 109th ranked passing defense. If they don't get better at stopping people, they'll have to score 60 a game (which isn't out of the question, actually). Much of the front 7 returns, with 3 of their top 4 tacklers back and as much experience as anybody in the conference along the defensive line. On the bright side, though...8 starters are back on offense, including the nation's best wide receiver in Dez Bryant. One of the guys that unit did lose was 1st round pick Brandon Pettigrew, who would have been better known but for the fact that the Big 12 had an assortment of great tight ends last year. Everybody else is back offensively, though...and this is a team that didn't really have trouble moving the ball or scoring, they just need a little help in order to do it after punts instead of kickoffs. The schedule also sets up nicely, as the Pokes don't play either Kansas or Nebraska and they get Missouri in Stillwater. Against the south, the roadies are A&M and Baylor before a Thanksgiving weekend showdown in Norman against the Sooners. This is a team that could live up to just a piece of its potential and find itself at 6-2 in the conference. Of course, they could be really good and still be 6-2...as Texas and OU could just be that good. Key Games: Texas, at Oklahoma.

4. Kansas Jayhawks - Pretty similar breakdown to Okie State here as this is a team that returns most of its offense but needs to figure out a way to improve upon a defense that has some talent but gives up huge chunks of yards and points. This defensive unit loses its linebacking core, but returns key pieces in the secondary, including the Big 12's best safety in Darrell Stuckey. The front 4 is back but needs some help from younger guys if it's going to improve. KU used LB James Holt at defensive end late in the year last season to provide more pass rushing speed. He's gone and a switch to a base 4-2-5 means the defensive line will be relied on to pressure the QB without help of lots of blitzing. On the offensive side of the ball, the skill guys all return, including perhaps the best wide receiver tandem in the country in Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, who combined for 189 catches for 2450 and 23 TDs. The offensive line lost bodies on the interior but appears to be in as good a shape as it was last year when the tackles were both redshirt freshmen. Last year's left tackle, Jeremiah Hatch, will slide over to center. Still, there's some cause for concern here as all 5 starters along the line are underclassmen, including 2 freshmen. The downside for these Jayhawks is that the schedule is just brutal. The south rotation brings both Oklahoma and Texas, as well as Texas Tech in Lubbock. KU misses out on a home game with the Border War at Arrowhead. On the bright side, their most likely opposition for the school's first birth in a Big 12 Conference Championship Game is Nebraska, who has to come to Lawrence in November. Key Games: Oklahoma, at Texas Tech, Nebraska, Missouri.

5. Nebraska Cornhuskers - An enigma of a team this coming season. This is a squad that should be good, as the talent level in Lincoln is fine, but it's a tale of two sides of the ball. Defensively, the Huskers should be in fine shape as they return the bulk of a solid, if unspectacular, defense. They'll be anchored at tackle by potential All American Ndamukong Suh, and they lose only one key pieces in the secondary and should be improved. Offensively, though...there are going to be some growing pains. The quarterback and top two receiving threats are gone, so this is a team that will likely have to build around the running game. In a spread conference, that can be done. There are lots of career starts on the offensive line and the leading rusher is back in Roy Helu Jr. But so much of the offense revolved around Joe Ganz last year that it could take some time. It's often overlooked how good Ganz was because the conference included names at QB like McCoy, Bradford, Daniel, Harrell, Reesing, Robinson, etc...but he was awfully good. No small feat to fill those shoes, and Nebraska will probably need to do it to keep pace with the Jayhawks in the north. Key Games: at Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, at Kansas.

6. Texas Tech Red Raiders - The Red Raiders will be talked about by what they lost offensively, namely Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, but Mike Leach will find a way to build a video game style offense that moves the ball and puts points on the board. They only return one starter on the offensive line, but it's a unit that should be decent. So, I think they're key losses are on defense. Tech will probably never be a lock down defensive team, their offense just doesn't chew up enough clock to make it possible, but last year's unit was pretty good. They've lost 4 key pieces to that bunch and 3 of those are in a secondary that can't afford to take a step back with the offenses that Tech will be facing in this conference.

7. Colorado Buffaloes - I like Cody Hawkins about as well as you can like an average arm, average mobility college quarterback. His toughness is good and if they can find a body or two to block for him, he could be productive. There are 9 starters back on that offense, so they should be at least as good as they were last year on that side of the ball. Defensively, they've only got 4 starters back and will need to find some productive bodies. I'm going to assume they can't be slaughtered by injuries two years in a row and say they'll be improved. This is a team that could realistically get to 7-5 and find themselves in a bowl game, which would be a nice step in the right direction as Hawkins enters year 4 and has more of his own recruits in there now.

8. Missouri Tigers - Daniel, Maclin, Saunders, Coffman, Moore, and Christopher are all gone...but this is a program that has decent talent behind them and should rebound into something resembling a decent football team. Derrick Washington is back with most of his blockers, so they should have something to build around offensively. Blaine Gabbert is the likely starter at QB, and he's a highly touted kid, but he didn't play the spread in high school and as a sophomore it isn't clear how ready he'll be. The defense suffers massive losses as well, returning only 4 starters, coupled with the the 5 returning on offense gives Mizzou the least experienced team in the conference. Just too many question marks. A decent bowl game wouldn't be surprising but 5-7 wouldn't be either.

9. Baylor Bears - The Bears ran the ball well last year, getting ground yardage out of fun-to-watch QB Robert Griffin, but they have to figure out a way to throw it (last in the Big 12) and stop people from throwing it (103 nationally). This will be a pretty experience team with 8 starters back on each side of the ball, including all the important components offensively, excluding their best offensive lineman. They'll sport a senior-laden defensive bunch will be challenged in the Big 12 South with 3 pre-season top 10 teams will elite offenses plus Texas Tech. The schedule is brutal...Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State are the only conference teams going to Waco. Tech was moved to a neutral site. This team could be decent and find themselves at 3-5 in league play.

10. Kansas State Wildcats - Bill Snyder is back and he's pissed that he has to go on the road twice in the non conference. There are some decent aspirations among some for this team, but I just don't see it. I don't think they'll be able to run it much, which means the TBD quarterback will have his hands full, and I don't think they'll be very good along the line of scrimmage. Snyder will get them back, but it won't be this year.

11. Texas A&M Aggies - The Aggies couldn't run the ball last year (last in the Big 12, 114 nationally), and they lost arguably the best player off the offensive line. The skill guys are back on the offense, but they'll need to be much improved or beaten out by younger guys for Mike Sherman's squad to take a step forward.

12. Iowa State Cyclones - Austen Arnaud is back, I guess, but the defense is still terrible. A new coaching staff will try to piece together something useful after Gene Chizik left to take the Auburn job. I can't see more than 2 conference wins with this group and I think zero is fairly likely.

The Royals Today, April Wrap Edition

So, as the first month of the baseball season drifts into the rear view mirror, the Royals find themselves alone in first place. The bad news, it's only by 1/2 a game and four-fifths of the division are within a game. But there's lots of good news. The Royals lead the central and are tied with the Red Sox for the 2nd best mark in the AL in Expected W-L. There are a couple of reasons for that, but mainly it boils down to the Royals being just 1-4 in one run games...due to a combination of being a little bit unlucky and the aforementioned handling of the bullpen. If the Royals continue to be unlucky in 1 run games, they're not good enough to make much noise in the division. If that regresses to the mean a bit, you never know. After 22 games, we know the Royals aren't a great team, but we also know that there aren't any great teams in the division.

The pitching, particularly the starting pitching and what should constitute the back end of the bullpen, has been outstanding. The Royals are 3rd in ERA, 4th in strikeouts, while being just 23rd in walks issued and 24th in home runs allowed. All the peripherals are there for the pitching to contine to be awfully good if everybody stays relatively healthy. But we knew the pitching could be pretty good. The offense has been startlingly...average, which is a huge improvement from the last couple of seasons. After being dead last in walks last year, they've wiggled their way up to 17th. They're 16th in OPS. They're 15th in home runs, and 17th in strikeouts (which is better than it sounds because guys are going deeper into the count with an apparent newfound focus on drawing walks). Some guys have hit better than they're going to (Callaspo, Buck, Bloomquist) but some guys haven't hit as well as they should (Gordon, DeJesus, Guillen).

Are the Royals good enough to win the division? It's hard to say. But for the first time in a long time, the answer isn't a resounding "No".

It's Time to Fire Trey Hillman

I've really never liked Trey Hillman. He wasn't anywhere near the top of my list of candidates to manage the Royals when they were filling that position before last season. I liked him even less when he sat his team down behind home plate after a spring training game and dressed them down for baserunning mistakes in front of fans (which ended up being really ironic because the Royals were a terrible baserunning team last year). I don't like that he talks up the importance of on-base percentage, perhaps the single most important statistic in all of sports, while running guys like Jose Guillen out there in the cleanup spot. I don't like that he ignores years of statistical evidence* in favor of one week of exhibition baseball when picking Kyle Farnsworth over Juan Cruz as the 8th inning guy when breaking camp.

*: Juan Cruz posseses a career ERA that's over a half-run lower than Farnsworth, with a much better WHIP, a similar strikeout rate, a much lower rate of HRs surrendered, and Cruz's numbers are improving. Simply, there is absolutely no way to justify Cruz NOT being the 8th inning bridge to Soria from the instant he signed. I thought Moneyball made the "he looked better in meaningless games in Arizona in March" evaluation methodology obsolete. Apparently not in Kansas City.

So, how long does it for such a minor personnel matter to bite the Royals in the ass? I'm glad you asked. It took two-thirds of an inning. Gil Meche pitched a gem on opening day, handed the ball over to the bullpen, and Farnworth promptly gave up a 3 run, game losing bomb to Jim Thome. So, Hillman can't be stupid enough to screw the bullpen organization up again right? It would appear not. In game 2, Cruz goes the 7th and 8th, Soria closes. Last weekend, Cruz goes the 8th in a close game, Farnsworth draws work in a 4 run game. But, Hillman showed us beyond a shadow of a doubt today, that he is indeed too stupid to handle something as complex as who the f**k should pitch.

So, here we sit, tied atop the AL Central at 7-5, with two games totally pissed away by our manager's misuse of the bullpen. This team is good enough to compete. The starting pitching has been terrific, the bullpen is light's out when it's used, you know, at least as well as a trained monkey would do it. The bats started a little slow against some pretty good pitching but have started getting it done more against a broader cross-section of quality. Yeah, the talent is good enough to compete. The manager isn't.

Bracketology Redux

So, an 8:40 tip for a guy with no job leaves a lot of time to twiddle the thumbs during the day. So, I figured I could kill a little time by revisiting my bracketology projections and see how I did.

Teams Picked Correctly = 64
Seeds Picked Exactly = 27
Seeds Picked Within 1 = 57
Seeds Missed by 2 = 5
Seeds Missed by 3 or more = 2

So, as grading goes, I didn't get as many seeds exactly right as any of the major bracketology folks, but I tied The Bracket Project among the major ones for most within one seed at 57. Of the 7 teams that I missed by more than 1, 3 of those were higher seeds than they ended up getting but they lost, giving me a bit of redemption (Boston College, Utah, California). The two teams I missed badly on were Utah State (Me=7, Committee=11) and Boston College (Me=10, Committee=7). My QPI score (see bracketology grading link here for comparison with major bracket people) was 53.

Not the best on the planet, but I didn't do too bad for my first year as an (admitted) dork.

Breaking Down the Sweet 16

Well, the first two rounds of the tournament gave us the fewest upsets we've seen since the field expanded to 64. This is the first time every 1, 2, and 3 seed are playing the 2nd week, and it's the lowest cumulative seed count in the Sweet 16 ever. While that meant that arenas and sports bars across the country had most of their upset bids fall short, it gives us the potential for better basketball than we're used to seeing this coming week. When all four 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four last year for the first time ever, we were rewarded with a weekend of high quality basketball. We should see some excellent games this week with four 2-3 matchups and the guarantee that no 1 seed will make the Final Four without playing at least a 3 in the regional final.

Midwest:
You've got to give Louisville the best statistical chance of winning their region, since they're the least likely to lose their regional semi. They're 9 point favorites and await the winner of Michigan State and Kansas, a game which is a rematch of a January meeting between those teams in East Lansing, won fairly handily by the Spartans. Don't really like the number in that Louisville game, gun to my head I'd probably say Arizona +9. Louisville is quite a bit better as a team than Arizona, but the Wildcats feature a couple of sure-fire NBA players, so it's pretty hard to count them out. In this region, I'll dodge Louisville/Arizona and take Michigan State -1 1/2.

West:
UConn/Purdue and Missouri/Memphis. Both numbers feel about right. It will be interesting to see how a freshman point guard, even one as talented as Tyreke Evans, handles Missouri's defensive style. They'll have several days to prepare, but it's pretty hard to simlate in practice. Memphis has good enough ball handlers and a great defense, so they can afford some turnovers if they limit those that lead to Mizzou dunks and layups. Should be a terrific game. I'm not convinced that Purdue has the horses to play with UConn, but the Huskies looks great the first two rounds, which almost always leads a 1 seed to a battle in their regional semi. I'd probably lean UConn -6 1/2 and Mizzou +4 1/2 but don't know if I'll play either one.

East:
The team that made it through the first weekend while playing the worst was Pitt. Still, hardly anybody makes the Final Four without being tested at least once, so maybe that Oklahoma State game was Pitt's test and they'll come out firing in the regional. They play a Xavier team that's hard to figure out, as the Muskateers have beaten Memphis, Missouri, and LSU but have lost games to Richmond, Duquense, and Charlotte. Unfortunately, the losses have been pretty recent and the impressive wins awhile ago. Still, I was impressed with the way Xavier handled Wisconsin's slow it down, physical defensive style, and I think they've got enough to keep this one close. I'll take Xavier +7. The other side of the bracket gives us a good game with Villanova and Duke. I'm still not wholly impressed with Duke, especially defensively. This is a game they'll have to shoot well in to win and I think both teams will score a bunch. I'll take Duke/Villanova OVER 148.

South:
The top of the bracket features two of the highest scoring teams in college basketball, ranked 2 (UNC) and 12 (Gonzaga). It's a common misnomer that the way to beat Carolina is to slow them down, but it's totally wrong. In Carolina losses this year, they've given up 85, 92, 88, and 73 points (with the 73 being to the best defensive team in the ACC without Ty Lawson). Last year tell's a similar story, with winning opponents scoring 82, 89, and 84. You don't beat Carolina by slowing it down, you beat them by slowing THEM down but running at every opportunity. Gonzaga is built perfectly for that, even though they may not have the personnel to pull it off. Even still, give me Gonzaga +8 1/2. The winner of that advances to play the Syracuse/Oklahoma winner. I've been waiting all year to bet against OU when they got to a good team, because I'm still not convinced they're as good as they look. Syracuse's zone could at least kinda limit Blake Griffin, and I don't trust anybody else on that team. I'll take Syracuse +1 but they're the least likable team in all of college basketball, so I'll be rooting against myself.

NCAA Tournament: More Round 2

Kansas / Dayton UNDER 133 - Two teams that are much better defensively than they are offensively. Collins and Aldrich won't have as easy of a time getting to the basket as they did in the first game. Dayton's point guard is a playmaker that you can play off of (worse shooter than Dogus Balbay), so I'd expect whoever's guarding him to sag off and congest the lane...low scoring affair.

Michigan State -4 Southern Cal - The Trojans have played well over the last couple weeks, but wins over UCLA and Boston College aren't looking as good with the tournament performance of the Bruins (squeaker over VCU before getting run out of the gym against Villanova) and the ACC. This is a game that should be pretty close for most of it but ultimately Michigan State is quite a bit better team and should pull away in the 2nd half.

Wisconsin +3 1/2 Xavier - Mid major teams, even from conferences as good as the A10, tend to struggle with slow, plodding, phyiscal teams like Wisconsin. The Badgers did a nice job against Florida State in the first round, and are probably due to shoot it a little better than the 40% they put up in that game. Xavier has been a team that you can keep from scoring with tough defense, and Wisconsin will have some success at that today.

Leans:

Cleveland State +2 1/2
Missouri -3

NCAA Tournament: Round 2

No game writeups today after the 12 hour beer and basketball marathon yesterday, but here are the picks.

Texas +8
Western Kentucky +11
Washington -1 1/2

Leans:

Maryland +9
North Carolina -11 1/2

Interesting tournament so far, and we finally got some great finished last night. The middle of the ACC has not shown well, with Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College all losing as a higher seed. Maryland pulled the minor upset, while Duke and Carolina haven't played anyone, yet. The Big 12 hasn't lost a team, yet...but I wouldn't expect that to last much longer. Still, getting all 6 teams to the 2nd round is an accomplishment. Pac 10 and Big Ten have both been a mixed bag. The SEC really does suck, with only one team left in the tournament. Most surprising game so far has to be Cleveland State over Wake. Cleveland State had to spring an upset over Butler in the Horizon League tournament to get in the dance, but it's a team that can play...they're just a little inconsistent. Buried in the losses to K-State and Wright State is a win against Syracuse. It's really a pretty decent team, which Wake apparently wasn't ready for.

March Madness: Round 1, Day 2

Florida State -2 1/2 Wisconsin - Florida State is setup as the sort of team that could make a little run in this tournament...really good defensively (7th nationally in FG% defense), they've got a borderline superstar senior guard in Toney Douglas, and they can create transition offense to survive periods when shots aren't falling. Wisconsin is a slow it down team, ranking 334th out of 344 teams, so this will be the sort of game that will make you want to gouge your eyes out if you're rooting for the Seminoles, but the Badgers were borderline not worthy of making the tournament and Big Ten teams were 1-3 against the number yesterday.

Arizona +1 1/2 Utah - Arizona doesn't deserve to be in the tournament, but they've been hearing that all week and will come out fired up. They'll also have the two best players on the court in Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger. When those guys play like they care, Arizona is decent. In the tournament, they should probably do that. Utah is a good but not great team. They were 4-4 against tournament teams (but that includes a Morgan State win) and 0-3 on the road in those games.

Leans:

Arizona State -5 1/2
Siena +3 1/2
Tennessee -2

March Madness: Round 1, Day 1

Memphis -20 Cal State Northridge - Bad team, in fact in my bracketology I had them as a 16 seed. Northridge hasn't been competitive against any decent teams, the Big West was down (even for them) this year, and Calpari has been able to spend the week telling his guys that they get no respect and that's why they didn't get a 1 seed. It wouldn't surprise me to see Memphis struggle offensively early, but they'll be dominant on defense. The Tigers getting to 65 or 70 points could mean an easy cover, they'll be that good defensively.

Butler +2 LSU - The way I evaluate mid-majors is by seeing how they did away from their building. Butler was 10-4 in road/neutral games, including a win at Xavier. Reasonably solid. LSU has as suspect of a resume as you'll see among major conference teams with as good of a record as they've had. These Tigers were 26-7 on the season, including a 13-3 run through the SEC regular season. But the downside to these guys is that they're just 3-4 against teams that made the tournament. Butler is a better team here...take the points.

Western Kentucky +5 Illinois - Illinois has scored more than 67 points twice since December. In that same time, they've been held under 60 points 8 times...so immediately, this looks like a team that you shouldn't be laying too many points with. The Hilltoppers are led in scoring by two experienced guards that came off the bench to play important minutes on last year's Sweet 16 team. These guys won't be intimidated by the bright lights and should make this something close to a one possession game. Wouldn't be totally shocking to see this be the 5-12 upset (though it's not my favorite 12 seed).

BYU -2 1/2 Texas A&M - A matchup of solid, if unspectacular teams. Neither one has anything you'd really consider to be a terrible loss. A&M has a couple of quality wins in Missouri and Texas, but both of those were at home. Their best win away from College Station is probably Nebraska. I really like Josh Carter and the things that he can do, but BYU has two guys that are around his size, one that plays exlucsively on the perimeter, that can help neutralize him. BYU also matches up well with the other perimeter spots, and I don't think you can trust A&M's interior guys to get it done. The Aggies have relied on perimeter play mostly and they've drawn a team with better perimeter talent.

UCLA -7 1/2 VCU - There are certain things about March Madness that I sometimes get swept up in, like always trying to figure out where the upsets will be. But something that almost always happens is the sexy upset pick getting boatraced. I have no idea what the percentages are and I couldn't find them in 45 seconds on ESPN, but this seems like the most popular upset pick among the 11-13 seeds. Now, UCLA is traveling 2700 miles, that's true, but they've seen the bullets fly in this deal...no one on the roster has ever not made the final four. The Bruins will be ready to play.

Washington -6 Mississippi State - Running through a 4 day conference tournament, every day fighting for your NCAA tournament life, takes a lot out of you. Last year, Georgia pulled off the feat, only to fall in the first round comfortably to Xavier. Syracuse pulled it off a three years ago, even earning a 5 seed for their trouble, only to be dropped in round 1 by 12 seeded Texas A&M. Washington is a pretty good team that got better as the year went along, having won 10 of their last 12, and they boast 8 wins against teams that are in the tournament field.

Leans:
Maryland +1 1/2
Texas -4
Northern Iowa +8 1/2

Bracketology

With more and more geeks trying their hand at their own bracket these days, it seemed like a good year to admit that I'm one of those geeks. So, I wasted a couple hours of my life the last day or two projecting the field. I tried to follow all of the rules that the committee has to (Memphis can't play in the south, no conference matchups without upsets, teams can be moved up or down a line from their natural seed for geography, etc). It's virtually impossible to get the actual matchups right, so I'm hoping that I've got most teams within one seed of where they actually fall and that I don't miss more than 2-3 fates of the bubble teams. We'll see how it goes. Here's the projection....

East:
1. North Carolina - Mike Patrick will overtly root for them on air at least once (see FSU tape).
2. Oklahoma - Still on the two line because two losses will be written off to Blake Griffin injury.
3. Syracuse - I'm going to assume they get that 3 seed bounce from the Big East tourney.
4. Villanova - Only 6-7 against the top 50...but 5-5 against the top 25, using Sagarin.
5. Xavier
6. Clemson
7. Butler
8. Tennessee
9. Oklahoma State
10. Michigan
11. San Diego State
12. Northern Iowa
13. Western Kentucky
14. Akron
15. Morgan State
16. Cal State Northridge

South:
1. Louisville - Only BCS team to win conference and conference tourney.
2. Duke - Early exit candidate against whoever ends up being their 7/10 winner.
3. Missouri - Round of applause for their first regular or postseason Big 12 title in any men's sport.
4. Wake Forest - Can't get a good feel for this team. Anywhere from 3-5 wouldn't surprise me.
5. West Virginia
6. LSU
7. Utah State
8. Ohio State
9. California
10. Boston College
11. USC
12. St. Mary's
13. American
14. Stephen F Austin
15. East Tennessee State
16. Chattanooga / Alabama State winner

Midwest:
1. Pittsburgh - Early exit in Big East tourney is a concern...two wins over UConn keep them here.
2. Michigan State - A 2 seed close to home is nearly as good as being shipped out west as a 1.
3. Kansas - Playing terrible. Body of work (10-5 against top 50) will prop them up.
4. Florida State - Playing great. Athletic, defends well, superstar senior guard...all the ingredients.
5. Illinois
6. Arizona State
7. Marquette
8. Minnesota
9. Siena
10. Dayton
11. Wisconsin
12. Temple
13. North Dakota State
14. Robert Morris
15. Binghamton
16. Morehead State

West:
1. Connecticut - Last 1 seed, so I've got them shipped out west. Injury to Dyson is probably fatal.
2. Memphis - Will be a 1 seed. The 2-3 record against the top 50 will make it a joke, though.
3. Washington - Pac 10 champs have improved greatly over the course of the season.
4. Gonzaga - Quietly had another great season. Do they FINALLY make a run as a favorite?
5. UCLA
6. Purdue
7. Utah
8. Texas
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Maryland
12. VCU
13. Cleveland State
14. Portland State
15. Cornell
16. Radford

Last 4 In:
Maryland
Wisconsin
San Diego State
St. Mary's

Last 4 Out:
Creighton
Arizona
Penn State
Tulsa

Contingency Planning:
If Mississippi State beats Tennessee in the SEC final, they're swapped in for St. Mary's.
If UT-San Antonio beats Stephen F Austin, they get the bid and are swapped down to the 15 line for Morgan State.
I don't think the ACC or Big Ten final has much effect on seeding. Clemson, with a very similar resume to Florida State, made a nice run in the ACC last year and ended as a 5 seed.

Let the Madness begin....

Edited: Swapped Syracuse and Villanova in the East.

Big 12 Basketball Awards

Player of the Year - Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)
You'll hear more than you want to over the next couple weeks as he racks up Big 12 and National POY awards. He's the best player in the country by a decent amount and had a great season. 22.1 points and 14.2 rebounds, both best in the Big 12, and good for 12th and 2nd in the nation, respectively.

Defensive Player of the Year - Cole Aldrich (Kansas)
In a year where the conference was devoid of a guard that was a defensive standout, Aldrich led the lead in blocks with 2.5/game (good for 21st in the country) and changed many more with his interior presence and was a huge reason why Kansas led the conference, and was 7th nationally, in field goal percentage defense. He trailed only Griffin among Big 12 players in rebounds.

Freshman of the Year - Willie Warren (Oklahoma)
By far the conference's best freshman and has played so well that there's a possibility he could head to the NBA after this season. He's been the lead guard for the Sooners the whole way and has scored 14.7 per game while dishing out 3.1 assists.

Best 6th Man - Matt Lawrence (Missouri)
Tall gunner for the Tigers came off the bench to provide offensive firepower for the team that finished 3rd outright. He averaged a shade under 9 ppg on 41% shooting from behind the arc.

Coach of the Year - Bill Self (Kansas)
Self lost all 5 starters and 6 of his top 7 off last year's national championship team and reloaded with a bunch of young, unknown pieces around Sherron Collins to win his 5th straight Big 12 championship. It was the first time KU has won 5 straight conference titles in over 80 years.

All Big 12, First Team
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
Sherron Collins, Kansas
Cole Aldrich, Kansas
DeMarre Carroll, Missouri
James Anderson, Oklahoma State

All Big 12, Second Team
Craig Brackens, Iowa State
Damion James, Texas
Cory Higgins, Colorado
Denis Clemente, Kansas State
Josh Carter, Texas A&M

Biggest Disappointments:

Texas - The Longhorns were picked (narrowly) to finish 2nd to Oklahoma and received more 1st place votes from league coaches than anyone in the preseason. Rick Barnes shoulders most of the blame as he had what is, in my opinion, the worst season of his career. Barnes has spent the last 3 years mishandling AJ Abrams, refusing to pull him for taking bad shots, not passing the ball to open teammates (which in years past including Kevin Durant), and general not forcing him to be phyiscal which made him a suspect defender and keeps him from ever exploiting his elite free throw shooting. Barnes took entirely too long to figure out that Dogus Balbay can play Big 12 point guard even though he can't shoot at all, which should have been fairly obvious given we're not far removed from Doug Gottlieb being successful in the league. Finally, putting Damion James in a hybrid 3/4 position kept him from being as good as he could be, and even given that he became the best player on the team. It's like Barnes thought James was PJ Tucker, even though James possesses superior atheticism and a WAY more consistent jump shot. Tucker played that hybrid position because he had to, James plays it because of a coaching error.

Baylor - If Rick Barnes did a poor coaching job this season, then Scott Drew did a miserable one. The Bears returned all the pieces from an NCAA tournament team and have vastly underachieved themselves into a probable road game in the first round of the NIT. They still seem allergic to defense and if jump shots aren't going in early, this is a team that lacks the toughness to play though it. In hindsight, the high expectations for Baylor might have been misplaced. Digging a little further into last season, they did scratch together a 9-7 conference schedule, but their best win was against 8-8 Texas A&M. They took advantage of the fact that, while the top of the Big 12 was tough, the middle and bottom wasn't very good or consistent. They were competitive against Texas and Kansas, beat all the bottom feeders, and made the tournament. This year, the Big 12 is considered down because the top of the conference isn't as elite as those Jayhawks and Longhorns that shared the title last year...but overlooked is that the middle of the conference has toughened up considerably. A&M, K-State, Okie State, and Texas are all 9-7. Nebraska is a tough, undersized squad that's tough to beat in Lincoln. Missouri came out of nowhere to go 12-4. The number of teams likely to take you to the woodshed was lower, but the number of easy conference wins was also lower. Baylor suffered from this.

The Rise of the NFL Safety

The old adage of running the football and playing defense to win in the playoffs held true in the AFC this season, with the Ravens and Steelers playing for the conference championship in addition to the Titans having the best record in football. The NFC was a wild ride of vastly contrasting styles. The Cardinals represented the conference in the Super Bowl by spreading you out and throwing it to two all-word receivers. Philly is a good defensive team but they don't even really pretend to be a true running team...choosing to make most of their noise in the short passing game (in part to take advatange of Brian Westbrook). The Giants and Panthers tied for the best record in the NFC, the Giants doing it with a great defense...the Panthers really doing it with smoke and mirrors.

So, what links Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Philadelphia together? An outstanding, do everything safety. It doesn't even really matter if the guy is a free or strong safety. Ed Reed plays free safety, makes tons of plays, and essentially makes the middle of the field a very difficult place to attack. Troy Polamalu plays strong safety and is an absolute run stuffer. He's also strong enough to play man-to-man against a tight end and fast enough to cover a 3rd wide receiver in a nickel look. These are the two most obvious ones, but the other "final four" teams had underrated safeties roaming their secondary. The Eagles did it a bit by committee with Brian Dawkins and Quintin Mikell finishing 2nd and 3rd on the team in tackles, as well as combining for 8 forced fumbles and 4 interceptions. Both guys started every game. Arizona had Antrel Rolle, a young 4th year guy who was 2nd on the team in tackles...though only had 1 INT, mostly because teams stayed away from him based on 5 picks last year.

So, what does is mean? Is the saftey position going to join QB, CB, OT, DT, and DE as a sort of premium position because guys are hard to find? We've seen this before with the emergence of TE that can do more than run block and sneak into the flat for the occasional pass. At tight end, Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe redefined the position, and it looked like (at least for a couple of years) that an athletic tight end might be required to be among the best offenses in football. That ultimately hasn't panned out for a couple reasons 1) The dropoff after Gonzalez, Gates, Winslow, and Shockey is pretty large and 2) Teams found ways to get "3rd receiver" production by using more spread sets and getting guys like Wes Welker and Brandon Stokely the ball in space.

True game-changing safeties like Reed and Polamalu will be hard enough to find that I think we'll see something similar to the evolution of the tight end. Teams that have one will have an advantage, at least in the short term, but one coming along that's good enough to spend a first round, or especially early first round, pick on will be rare. Teams that don't have one might try to find TWO elite corners, so their safeties don't need to be relied on in coverage (what the Cowboys tried, and failed, with Roy Williams...really never find a guy to play opposite Newman). Or maybe you try to have a top 5 type guy at DT and LB, to keep your safeties from being needed in run support as much (kinda the Bears strategy with Tommie Harris, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher...Mike Brown is serviceable with that supporting cast).

Right now, the safety position is probably as important as it has ever been in the NFL. It'll be interesting to see how that evolves.

Big Monday - 2/16

Texas A&M +2 Texas - Neither of these teams is playing particularly well right now. Texas finally ended their 3 game slide last week with a 99-74 trouncing of Oklahoma State before going to Boulder and making it 2 in a row in an OT barnburner. A&M has lost 3 straight, but they've come against at Oklahoma, K-State at home, and at Baylor with all of the games being competitive. So, it's hard to tell if they're close to palying well or they're close to having their morale break and giving up. With the hated Longhorns rolling to town with ESPN for Big Monday, the place should be rocking. Texas is good enough to go in there and win this game, but the Aggies are good enough to put up a fight. Big 12 teams that play on Big Monday after a Saturday road game are 1-3 against the number, and ALL of those teams hosted the Big Monday game. With both of these teams fitting that bill, the UNDER might be worth a look when it posts later today. Texas has the Big Monday triple-suck as their on the road (1) after a Saturday road game (2) that went to overtime (3). They're the first team to have to do Saturday-Monday on the road this season.

Connecticut -3 1/2 Pittsburgh - Huge Big East game as the conferences top 2 teams square off. I lead toward the Huskies in this spot for a couple of reasons, first their young big guys are really starting to learn and play good basketball. UConn can defend you inside and out and rarely give up more than about 60 points. More importantly, though...Pitt really only has a couple of decent wins away from home. They won at Florida State in a low-scoring affair, decent win, and probably their best. They won at Georgetown before the Hoyas fell totally off the map, which is a hard one to figure. In their recent efforts away from home against ranked foes, they've lost to Louisville and Villanova. I'm just not convinced on this team yet, so I'll lay the points.

Big Monday

Baylor -1 Kansas - Baylor is a bad matchup for the Jayhawks in this spot. Young KU team on the road on Big Monday, an athletic perimeter oriented team with enough bodies to make Sherron Collins guard somebody good, an good low post player in Kevin Rogers that can offset the advantage that Kansas gains with Cole Aldrich most games, and Baylor might be legimately better at the three spots on the floor not occupied by Aldrich/Collins. The Jayhawks haven't played well the last couple times out, trailing most of the game against Nebraska before pulling one out and letting a 21 point lead get trimmed to 2 against Colorado in Lawrence on Saturday. The 6-0 conference record is a product of the schedule setting up perfectly. This is a team that needs more points here.

Royals Sign Zack Greinke

The Royals announced today that they signed Zack Greinke to a 4 year contract. He'll make $38 million over the life of the contract, backloaded (3.75, 7.25, 13.5, 13.5) so he'll get Jose Guillen's money when that ridiculous deal finally runs its course.

This is a great, great signing for the Royals. The national media hasn't totally figured it out yet (since he doesn't play for New York or Boston), but his stuff is electric and he's showing flashes of being a true top-of-the-rotation guy, a fringe top 10 pitcher in all of baseball. Stealing a little bit from Rany, Greinke's market value was probably around 4 years for $44 million, with a hope that he might take a million per less than that to stay in a relatively comfortable media market like Kansas City. The Royals have beaten that and structured the contract in a way that makes a ton of sense for the organization.

Conference Championship Sunday

Philadelphia -3 1/2 Arizona - Tough to lay points on the road in a game like this, but I just can't see the Cardinals going to the Super Bowl. I like them, and will be rooting for them even though I'm betting against them, but I'm not sure Anquan Boldin is healthy. Defenses have been huge this year, with the teams that finished 1-2-3 in the regular season all still alive. The Cardinals are the odd man out and will have trouble dealing with McNabb, Westbrook, and all the blitzing that the Eagles will do.

Lean:

Baltimore +6

The correct play, given where the numbers are at, is probably a PHI +2 1/2/BAL +12 teaser.

College Hoops - 1.17.2009

Florida State / Maryland UNDER 132 - Both teams go long spells struggling to score and the Seminoles are legitimately good defensively. The UNDER is 11-1 in games involving one of these teams on the season.

Texas -6 Texas Tech - The Longhorns are probably a little bit over-rated, but they should play well today after the discouraging loss at OU on Big Monday. Tech just really isn't very good, especially defensively, which will let UT score some points. And Texas can guard, so the Red Raiders will have a difficult time keeping pace. Texas has covered 3 straight in this series.

Kansas State +2 1/2 Nebraska - K-State opened up Big 12 play with Oklahoma at home and Kansas in Lawrence. The schedule softens up a bit today and coming off a gutsy, but not great, performance against the Jayhawks...they should be poised to play well today.

Format Change

The Football Edge is changing names to The Sporting Edge. It's also undergoing a format change. This will not be unlike that dark day in the 90s when the LAZER started playing Britney Spears songs, and for that, I apologize in advance. I'll be expanding to including basketball investing, as well as writing about teams I care about in the non-oddsmaking sense. So, if a team that I follow does something stupid (like giving Larry Johnson $60 million or signing Willie Bloomquist for more than a bag of baseballs), I'll probably write about it. Some of you that don't like baseball, and I won't name any names here, will probably want to set up a filter to automatically delete updates with "Royals" in the title. If you're not a Kansas fan, they'll be plenty of that that you don't want to read. So, really...I'll have roughly one reader that follows all the teams I'll talk about. But ultimately, it's my blog...so you'll learn to deal with it.

Enjoy.