NFL: Week 15

Miami -6 San Francisco - Miami is in the thick of the 3-way tie for first in the AFC East and with San Francisco in town and a trip to Kansas City coming next week, they have to like their chances. San Francisco makes the long trip east to play an early game (always tough for west coast teams), and they'll be doing it without Frank Gore, who's out with an ankle sprain. Tough spot for them, so I expect the Dolphins to win comfortably today.

NFL: Week 14

Green Bay -6 Houston - The Texans recent good play has this line held a little lower than it probably should be. Underachieving Packer team hosts Houston, with Matt Schaub seeing his first action in over a month. If Green Bay expects to make the playoffs, they need to get going right now...and today is the first time all year they've played a 2nd consecutive home game. I'd expect them to play well.

New England -6 1/2 Seattle - Rarely does a Bill Belichick team get embarassed like they did last week. It's even more rare for them not to respond and play well the following week. The squeezably soft Seahawks are just what the doctor ordered in this spot. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS following a loss this season.

Denver -9 Kansas City - The Chiefs are playing better, but this is a Broncos team that, until last Sunday, was the Chiefs only win. A motivated team, in Mile High, with the Chiefs' inability to stop the, well...anything on defense means Denver gets to give a revenge f**k today.

Conference Title Saturday

Florida -10 Alabama - The Crimson Tide are getting no respect here for a multitude of reasons. The biggest deal, though...is that the SEC has a lot of good teams but not very many great ones. Alabama has managed to navigate through the conference without losing, but they've seldom looked great. The computers tell a big story here, of Sagarin's top 50, the only teams that played a significantly easier schedule than the Tide were Boise State, Ball State, and Tulsa. Nowhere to hide today, as they battle a motivated Florida team that needs to not only win...but do it convincingly enough to pass Texas in the BCS. Gators roll.

Oklahoma / Missouri UNDER 79 - Explosive offenses, poor pass defenses. Missouri is #116 nationally against the pass AND they didn't have to play Tech or Oklahoma during the regular season. So, why take the UNDER...it'll be cold, the field is in terrible shape, and in championship type games...79 is a ton of points.

Virginia Tech PK Boston College - Virginia Tech has a little more experience at the skill positions and should play well today to try to snag the ACC's prized spot getting annually humiliated in the Orange Bowl. Should be a good one.

NFL: Week 12

Cleveland / Houston OVER 50 - The #22 team in the NFL in total defense battles the #26 team. Weather forecast is for clear weather and not much wind, so the offenses should be able to put up some points. The OVER has paid 3 straight for both of these teams.

New England -1 1/2 Miami - New England was pounded by the Fish in Foxboro in week 3, but with motivation from that embarrassment, Cassel having more experience, and film available of Miami's version of the Wildcat...they should be in much better shape today. This game is a borderline must-win for the Pats. They're currently tied with Miami and a game back of the Jets in the AFC East with Pittsburgh coming to town next week.

San Francisco +10 Dallas - Dallas isn't really a team that blows people out, winning only two games by double digits this season. San Francisco usually does a pretty good job of hanging around and keeping games close, and I don't think the Dallas offense is quite firing on all cylinders. The Cowboys have their playoff hopes hanging in the balance pretty much every week these days, and they'll find a way to win, but this feels like a close game.

Tennessee -5 1/2 NY Jets - I've been betting against the Titans for 3 weeks now, because I think they're a little overvalued. They're in a pretty good spot today, though. The Jets are riding high after their big win over the Pats last week, and Brett Favre hasn't gone colorblind and thrown a couple to the wrong jerseys in a couple of weeks. You figure he's due for some of that against this Titans defense.

Leans (if I'm 2-2 or better in the early games, I'll play these):

Denver -8 1/2
Seattle +3 1/2

NCAA Week 13

Short write-ups this week with family in town...

Wake Forest -2 1/2 Boston College - Wake is in must-win territory if they intend to be the Atlantic divisions representative in the ACC title game. They've covered 2 of 3 conference games at home this year, and they've 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Eagles.

Washington -7 Washington State - Battle of the two worst BCS conference teams. Washington State has been worse...they've only stayed within 4 touchdowns of two D-1 opponents. The Huskies are bad...but they aren't that bad. Washington is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 Apple Cup matchups and have covered 4 straight on the road.

Maryland +2 Florida State - Another game with ACC Atlantic implications, but this one is kinda must-win for both teams. Maryland is unbeaten at home this year (6-0 SU, 4-1 ATS), including a big win over North Carolina last week. They've beaten the Seminoles twice in a row in College Park and are 3-1-1 ATS over the last 5 overall.

Penn State -15 1/2 Michigan State - Good season for Sparty, and a loss today doesn't change that, but they've got an inflated record. The weakness of the Big Ten has let them rack up wins, but they were destroyed in East Lansing the only time they played a talented team. I don't believe in them in this spot.

Tulsa -28 1/2 Tulane - The Golden Hurricane return home after back-to-back road losses and get to take some frustration out on the Green Wave in this battle of schools who's mascot doesn't end in S. Tulsa has won and covered 3 straight in this series.

Leans:

Northwestern +3
Cincinnati -6
Utah -7

NFL: Week 11

Tampa Bay -4 Minnesota - The Vikings are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 on the road. They travel to Florida today to play a Bucs squad that is rested coming off their BYE week, while Minnesota has to bounce back from an emotional win over Green Bay at home last week. Tampa is a game back of Carolina and tied with Atlanta in a hotly contested NFC South and needs to play well today. Tampa has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. Tough spot for the Vikings on the road.

NY Giants -7 Baltimore - The Ravens have won 4 straight and head to the Meadowlands today to take on the defending Super Bowl champs and what is probably the best team in football. The Giants are 5-0 at home so far going 4-1 in those games against the number. They have the #2 pass defense in the league and, while Joe Flacco has played pretty well this year, this one is a tall order for him. The Ravens defense is again legit, but Eli Manning is equipped to play well enough against them to score some points. I can't say the same for Baltimore's offensive unit.

Jacksonville +3 Tennessee - The Titans have covered a bunch of games this year, and I might go down in flames doing it...but I really think they're overvalued in Vegas right now. This blog has gone 1-1 going against them the last two weeks after Chicago inexplicably couldn't stop Kerry Collins even after making them one dimensional. Jacksonville is too good of a team to continue sucking like they have thus far, and they're very good in the small underdog spot going 11-3 against the number in their last 14 as a dog of 4 or less.

Chicago +3 1/2 Green Bay - Two total opposite defenses going today. The Bears are extremely tough against the run but give up yards in the passing game in droves. The Packers stop the pass very well but are just 28th in the NFL in run defense. Offensively, the offenses aren't terribly different in the passing game but the Bears run it a quite a bit better (#15 vs #23). In a cold weather game, I like the way the Bears are put together a little bit better. Getting more than a field goal is a bonus. The Bears are 4-1-1 in the last 6 in this series, and 3-1-1 in their last 5 trips to Lambeau.

Pittsburgh -5 San Diego - The Chargers are a broken team. Their only road win was against the Raiders and they're 1-3-1 against the number on the road (including dropping the last 3...all by more than a touchdown). So, I'm not too convinced that they can go to Pittsburgh to play a really good Steelers teams and keep it competitive. San Diego has only looked good when their offense clicks and they score a bunch of points but being on the road against the best defense in football isn't a great spot to make that happen. Pittsburgh has covered 5 of the last 6 against the Chargers.

San Francisco -6 1/2 St. Louis - The 49ers are playing better recently even though we've confirmed the suspicion we had during his playing days that Mike Singletary is a lunatic. St. Louis has also played better since Jim Haslett took over, but they don't have much fire power with Steven Jackson on the shelf, and he won't play today. Mike Martz should be motivated to put some points on the board after his head coach threw him under the bus last week for the end-game play call. The 49ers have dominated this series of late (at least as it relates to the spread), covering 6 of the last 7 overall and 5 of the last 7 at home.

NCAA Week 12

Texas -13 1/2 Kansas - Senior Day in Lawrence, but this is a tough spot for the Jayhawks. Texas is still in the national championship hunt and will show up today to find cold, windy weather. That'll mean the running games play a bigger role than usual, and Kansas is a paltry #68 nationally running the ball while the Texas defense is #6 in stopping it. Kansas has had trouble finding replacements for the tackles they lost of last year's team, and the offensive line will have lots of trouble with the Texas front 4 today. Texas wins and it might get ugly.

Nebraska -6 Kansas State - Well, K-State back-door-covered against me last week, but a 94 yard touchdown run with the backup QB in has me undeterred in my belief that this team has mailed it in on Ron Prince. Bowl eligibility is still possible, I just don't think the Wildcat defense is good enough to handle Nebraska's balanced attack. K-State is #109 against the run which is actually unbelievable given that they play in a pass-happy league. The Cornhuskers will mix up their playcalling and have some success offensively do enough to get the win and cover here.

Navy +4 Notre Dame - Still not a believer in Notre Dame. The best win by either of these teams is the road win by the Midshipmen against Wake Forest. Last year Navy exercised the demons of the 40+ year losing streak against the Irish. This year, Navy might just be better. I'd expect a close game similar to last year's nailbiter and in such situations, I'll take the points. Don't be shocked by an outright Navy win, though.

Georgia -10 Auburn - The Tigers a dysfunctional football team, and they've been awful against the number going 1-8 on the season. Georgia rolls in today providing some value since they're only 1-5 ATS in their last 6. This line should be somewhere in the 2 touchdown range, and I'd still probably like it even that high.

Florida -22 South Carolina - Florida has covered 5 straight since the Ole Miss loss, they've climbed their way up the BCS rankings, and they're poised to win the SEC and draw the Big 12 champ in the national championship game. As well as they've been playing, and as overmatched as the old ball coach's Gamecocks are today, this one will be a boatrace. Florida hung 51 on South Carolina on the road last year and this year's offense is better. I just don't see South Carolina keeping up.

South Florida -8 Rutgers - South Florida has had 2+ weeks to prepare for this one. They were off last week and played the Thursday night game the week before, so they haven't played a game since October. The time off will help them get healthy as they return home today coming off of back-to-back losses and needing to bounce back with a win today. Rutgers has played pretty well the last couple weeks which has kept this number lower than it should have been.

NFL: Week 10

San Diego -14 Kansas City - Bought a half point. The Chiefs have left it all on the field the last two weeks in two inspired efforts but come up short. They travel west to play a pissed off Chargers team that is coming off consecutive losses, just had their BYE week to get healthy, and still has legitimate aspirations of winning the AFC West. The Chargers are 8-1-1 against the number in their last 10 against AFC West opponents and they've covered 9 of their last 10 as a favorite of 8 or more. The Chiefs are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 against San Diego.

Houston PK Baltimore - Don't look now, but the Texans aren't terrible any more. They're just 3-5 so far, but they've played a brutal schedule. After opening with 3 straight road games against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, then playing Indianapolis at home (thus starting 0-4)...they've gone 3-1 through a more manageable part of their schedule. They're coming off a tough road loss last week, are now ranked #4 in the NFL in total offense, Sage Rosenfels kept it going last week in relief of Schaub, and Andre Johnson is turning into a superstar. They're valuable in this spot as the public is overvaluing Baltimore. The Ravens have covered 3 straight, all by double digits, but the last two weeks they've played #27 and #29 in total offense. The only truly impressive performance in that 3 game run came at Miami after Baltimore had lost 3 straight and been embarrassed the week before by Indy.

Indianapolis +4 1/2 Pittsburgh - The Steelers have done a pretty good of beating up on bad teams, but Monday night was their first really impressive performance. They are a good football team with a good defense working on a short week. The defense probably isn't as good as the #1 ranking might indicate, given the schedule a couple of bad weather games they've played. The Colts got Anthony Gonzalez involved last week which gives them another weapon in the passing game and Joseph Addai is getting healthier every week. Their offense is gaining firepower and the defense has all the pieces back, which gets the Colts back to being a good team. Should be a very close game, so I'll take the points.

Minnesota -2 1/2 Green Bay - Suspicious line here, since Green Bay has won 5 straight in this series and is 4-1 against the number in their last 5 in Minnesota. But Brett Favre isnt walking through that door. The Vikings are extremely good against the run, so Aaron Rodgers will be asked to win this game with his arm, on the road, in a loud environment rivalry game, in a spot where both teams are desperate for a win to keep pace with the Bears in the NFC North. I like Rodgers a lot, but that's a pretty tall order for him today, especially when you figure he'll have limited opportunities. The Packers aren't very good against the run, checking in at #28 in the league, which will mean the Vikings can have success with their rushing attack, score some points, and control the ball. The Vikings are good as a small favorite, covering 8 of their last 10 as a favorite of less than 3.

Chicago +3 Tennessee - The Edge made money last week betting against the Titans and we're going back to the well this week. This Bears defense isn't as good as in years past, but they are well suited for the stretch run...being much tougher against the run (#6) than they are against the pass (#30). This imbalance also makes the defense match up pretty well against Tennessee, since the Titans are STILL waiting for their first 200 yard passing day. The Bears are a cold weather team in general, covering 7 of their last 10 in November. The Bears are also really good in the small underdog spot, going 7-2-1 against the number (7-3 SU) as a dog of 4 or less.

Leans:

Jacksonville -6 1/2
Atlanta -1

NCAA Week 11

Oklahoma State +3 1/2 Texas Tech - Texas Tech is one week removed from the biggest win in school history. They've spent the week hearing debate about whether or not they deserved to jump Penn State in the BCS rankings, they've got an ABC game in prime time again, etc. Now, maybe this team is good enough to survive and play well against an OSU team that I think is better than they are...but they'll have to prove it to me. Even this far into the season, these divisional foes have only played two common opponents...Tech beat Texas in Lubbock while Okie State lost a close one to them in Austin. Both beat Texas A&M comfortably, though OSU had much less trouble in doing so. The Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 against the number this season.

Nebraska -1 Kansas - Heading into this year, this didn't look like too tough of a game for the Jayhawks. Nebraska breaking in a new coaching staff, Kansas coming off the best season in school history with lots of starters back, etc. But, Kansas has had more trouble that expected replacing the few guys they lost, they've been banged up more than last year, and they just aren't quite as good as expected. On the flip side, Nebraska has been improving and while they're just 2-3 in Big 12 play, the losses came to Missouri, Texas Tech (overtime in Lubbock), and Oklahoma. Nebraska was embarrassed in Lawrence last year but had some success offensively in that game. Kansas hasn't won in Lincoln since the 60s, and I'd very much like to watch them break that streak today...I'm pessimistic.

San Jose State -7 Louisiana Tech - San Jose State is playing for bowl eligibility and hosts a Louisiana Tech team with a one dimensional offensive attack (#26 rushing, #104 passing). San Jose State doesn't really do anything well offensively, but the defense is tough...ranked #19 nationally in total defense. Louisiana Tech has only covered 1 of their last 6, they're 0-4 ATS on the road this season, and they're 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.

Iowa / Penn State UNDER 43 1/2 - Number #6 squares off against #24 in total defense in this one. The OVER is 3-2 in Penn State games this year, but in two of those three their offense did most of the damage. The Penn State defense has given up more than 17 points only once all year. The OVER is just 2-4 in Iowa games. The weather across the midwest will be cold and miserable...wind chill of 24 in Iowa City right now and a chance of snow. This game is very likely to turn into a slugfest.

Missouri -27 Kansas State - The Wildcats roll into Columbia amid turmoil. Ron Prince was forced out earlier in the week but will finish the season. And they don't match up well with Missouri, as K-State is #108 nationally in total defense and #89 in passing defense. So the big question is, will K-State show some fire for their coach? Prince has never struck me as a player's guy...so I think it's more likely that they face some adversity early and quit on him. Mizzou is likley to put 50+ in this game. Bad weather could mean they run the ball more which plays into the weakness of K-State. I just don't think the Wildcats can keep up in this spot.

Leans:

Iowa State +10
Wake Forest -3 1/2
LSU +3 1/2
Boise State -35
Georgia -12 1/2

NFL: Week 9 Continued

Cleveland -2 Baltimore - Suspicious line here. The Browns were whipped in week 3, but they're getting healthy, gaining some confidence, and are playing much better lately. They host a Baltimore team that is pretty typical, poor offense and good defense. The Ravens have struggled on the road lately, covering only 2 of their last 11. Meanwhile, Cleveland's rabid fanbase gives them a nice home field advantage, as they've covered 9 time in their last 10 tries as the host. They've been equally successful against Baltimore, covering the number in the last 4 matchups in Cleveland and 5 of the last 6 overall.

Atlanta / Oakland OVER 41 1/2 - While the offenses in this game aren't necessarily great, sometimes an over looks good because the defenses are just bad. Such is the case in the Black Hole today, where the #25 and #26 ranked total defenses square off. Atlanta has given up at least 20 points in 6 of their 7 games (holding only Kansas City below that mark), while Oakland has held two opponents under 20 but actually gives up a higher average yielding 25.3 per game.

Indianapolis -6 1/2 New England - The Colts have to have this game. And hidden underneath the Patriots run at an undefeated season last year is the fact that Indy has owned this series lately. Since the memorable playoff game in '05, the Colts have covered 4 straight including two outright road wins...and all of that included a Patriots team that was less old on defense and had Tom Brady at the helm. Bob Sanders returns today to help in run support and complement what is already the #2 passing defense in the league. Matt Cassel will have his hands full when the Pats have the ball.

NFL: Week 9

Minnesota -4 1/2 Houston - The Baltimore game that was canceled has given the Texans a quirky schedule so far. They played their first 3 games away from home, their next 4 at home, and they go back on the road today to play a Minnesota team that is in need of a win, as they're a game back of both the Bears and Packers in the NFC North. The Vikings are 5-1 SU and ATS coming off the BYE and 2-0 in those 6 when they're at home. The Texans are 21st in the NFL against the run and will have a tough time stopping the Adrian Peterson and the Vikes attack today, so they'll probably need this to become a shootout. They won't have quite enough bullets.

Green Bay +4 1/2 Tennessee - The Titans could be the worst 7-0 team in the history of the NFL. That's not to say they're bad, because it's a good team, but their schedule has set up just perfectly. Out of three road games, two have come against Cincinnati and Kansas City...teams with a combined 1 win. The Titans haven't had 200 passing yards in any game this year, and they'll find the sledding particularly tough today against the Packers and their #6 ranked passing defense. Tennessee can muddy this game up, try to control the football, and make it a low scoring slugfest to move to 8-0...but they odds are slim that they can run away and win by a bunch of points. So, getting more than 4 is great in this spot.

Buffalo -5 NY Jets - The Bills try to bounce back from a loss last week to Miami as they return home to face a Jets team that has really not been very good away from home, standing at 1-2 SU and ATS to date. Buffalo has gotten the better of this series lately, covering 5 of the last 7 overall and 3 of the last 4 at home. They've also been tough at home in general, covering 12 of their last 16 at the host. The Bills need this one, as they're just a game ahead of the Jets and are tied with New England for the division lead.

Leans:

Atlanta / Oakland OVER 41 1/2
Indianapolis -6 1/2
Cleveland -2

NCAA Week 10

Florida -6 1/2 Georgia - Don't be fooled by the big road win the Bulldogs pulled off last week, that was against an extraordinarily overrated LSU team. Georgia has covered only 1 of their last 4, including a SU beatdown at the hands of Alabama and a struggle between the hedges against a bad Tennessee team. On the flip side, Florida has been a bettor's dream, going 6-1 against the number and playing particularly pissed off after losing to Ole Miss. This is the best team in the SEC, they have a realistic shot at playing for the national title, and they'll play very well in the World's Largest Cocktail Party.

Georgia Tech - 2 Florida State - I'm not convinced on Florida State, and apparently I'm not the only one. It's pretty rare that a team ranked 15 or 16 goes on the road against an unranked team and is an underdog. The Seminoles opened as a 1 point favorite and money rolled in on the Yellow Jackets, who are in a bounce-back spot. The last time Georgia Tech played coming off a loss they won by 31 as an 8 point favorite, and they're 5-1 ATS on the year, with 3 of those wins coming by more than a score.

Kansas / Kansas State OVER 68 - Two offenses that are pretty efficient, ranked #17 and #27 in total offense, go against two defenses that can't do crap about it, ranked #88 and #109 in total defense. The Jayhawks probably aren't as bad defensively as they looked last week, but they really aren't very good, either. K-State's defense is an undersized bunch that can regularly give up ball-control possessions along with the occasional big play, but they're special teams can kick in with scores and short fields. There will be lots of scoring in this one.

Northwestern +7 1/2 Minnesota - Speaking of teams I'm not convinced on, as can happen in crappy conferences like the Big Ten, the Golden Gophers have rolled through their schedule playing only one ranked team (and losing). Now, does that mean that the Wildcats are the team that will come in and end the dream? Not exactly, but Minnesota shouldn't be getting more than a touchdown here. Minnesota has covered 6 straight and has picked up a lot of the betting public, which is how this line moved across the magic 7 number. It should be low scoring and close, so I'll take the points in this spot.

Tulsa -7 Arkansas - Arkansas has had the hell beaten out of them by every good team they've played. Meanwhile, Tulsa rolls into town 6-1 against the number and piling up points like crazy. These teams have different motivations here. For Arkansas, this is a diversion from SEC play against a small conference squad which, even though Tulsa is ranked, it a tough spot to get up in. Tulsa sees this is an opportunity to spank a BCS conference team in their house to gain some credibility. Tulsa's offense is legit, currently leading the nation in total offense, and will score some points in this game. This matchup will hinge on what happens when the Razorbacks have the ball. They'll have some success, as Tulsa's defense isn't very good, but they'll have trouble keeping pace.

NCAA Week 9

Kansas / Texas Tech OVER 68 1/2 - This is a replay matchup of Texas and Missouri last week, from a total perspective. Both teams move the ball very efficiently through the air, the Red Raiders are #1 like they usually are, while the Jayhawks are #6. Neither defense is very good against the pass, Kansas checks in at #99, while Tech is close behind at #103. There will be lots of big plays and lots of points, with the defenses assuming that 2 stops per half is a pretty good effort. The end zone will get in the way more than either defense.

Florida -25 1/2 Kentucky - This line is a little higher than I thought it'd be, as Kentucky's record is pretty decent and they played Alabama tough a couple weeks ago. On the flip side, Florida has been perfect against the number outside of the unbelievable outright loss to Ole Miss, and they had a week to rest and get healthy. This is a team that still has national title hopes, and they'll play well against an overmatched Kentucky squad today in the swamp.

Tulsa -23 1/2 Central Florida - I might be getting on the bandwagon late, but Tulsa is good and has been a covering machine (7-0 SU, 5-1 ATS). Most of those covers are of the comfortable, by more than a touchdown variety. They had their scare two weeks ago on the road against SMU and bounced back last week for a tidy 77 point outburst. They've scored less than 56 points only once since the opener and AVERAGE 64 at home. Central Florida has beaten only one DI team and has been held under 20 points in 4 of their 6 games. They'll probably get past the 20 point mark today, but they'll need many more than that to cover the number.

Texas / Oklahoma State OVER 67 1/2 - Two explosive offenses, ranked #7 and #10 nationally, that are both playing extremely well right now. Okie State is in a tough spot here, as the national spotlight is finally on and they roll into Austin to play what has unquestionably been the best team in the country to date. I expect them to handle it reasonably well, they almost have to play better than Mizzou did last week, and I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball and score points.

Kansas PK Texas Tech - As mentioned above, Texas Tech's defense ranks #103 against the pass and the more troubling this is they've done that against a piss poor schedule (bottom 15 in Division I SOS to this point). They've struggled the last two weeks, going to overtime against Nebraska in Lubbock and letting a terrible Texas A&M team hang around last week. They're offense is legitimate, and they'll score some points, but they haven't been playing well, and they're on the road against the first good team they've played. In addition, they've got Texas coming to town next week and could peek ahead, and Kansas is pretty tough in Lawrence (winning 13 in a row since the Dollar $igns game). The Jayhawks should be on the right end of a shootout today, as Tech has a lot of trends to overcome.

Sunday Night Football

I don't like going .500 for a full day, so I'm playing a lean...

Tampa Bay -11 1/2 Seattle - Seattle wasn't very good before the injuries started, and they're really not very good now. National television should keep the Bucs from being complacent in this spot and make them play at least reasonably well, and them playing reasonably well means a win by a couple touchdowns.

Good Luck.

NFL: Week 7 Continued

Kansas City / Tennessee UNDER 35

Washington -7 Cleveland (bought the hook)

Too close to kickoff for writeups.

NFL: Week 7

Brief summaries this week...

Minnesota +3 Chicago - Very evenly matched teams, and the Vikings are coming off their only really poor performance of the season. The Bears are 5th in the league against the run, but both of the top 10 running offenses they've played have had success and won the game outright.

NY Giants -10 1/2 San Francisco - The 49ers are 2-4 SU and ATS and the two wins are both against terrible football teams. They travel cross country today for an early kick against a pissed off Giants team that got embarrassed on Monday night by the Browns. The Giants will score early and often and the '9ers will have a hard time keeping up.

Indianapolis / Green Bay OVER 47 - Two prolific, balanced offenses, perfect weather, both QBs getting comfortable as they either gain experience or get their game legs back underneath them...depending on which guy you're talking about. This game has all the makings of a shootout.

Carolina -3 New Orleans - The Panthers are the better team here and are coming off a loss and returning home to where they've been extremely tough, going 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS. The Saints have been good against weaker teams, beating everybody they're supposed to, but they don't have a signature win, yet. It'll be hard for them to get one today on the road against the #2 passing defense in the league.

Leans:

Baltimore +3
Raiders +3

More College Foots

No real time for writeups, but I'm adding two plays...

Louisville / Middle Tennessee State OVER 48 1/2

Rutgers -2 1/2 Connecticut

Good Luck.

NCAA Week 8

Good card this week, which is nice. I can't keep losing every game. Right?

Buffalo -11 Army - Buffalo parlayed their Hail Mary win over Temple into 3 straight losses and they head home for just the thing that will cure what ails you...a terrible Army team that, through back-to-back wins and covers, is finally providing value again. Army has proven that they're not the worst team in Division I, but they're still not good enough for this spot. The Black Knights have covered back-to-back games on the road, but that ended a 4 game ATS losing streak away from home. Buffalo needs this one, and playing at home they'll get it comfortably.

Texas / Missouri OVER 65 - Two teams that can throw the ball playing against two defenses that absolutely cannot defend it. Against schedules that are pretty pedestrian (43 and 87 according to Sagarin), these defenses rank ##109 and #113 against the pass. So, both offensive coordinators have spent the whole week putting game plans in place to take advantage. Actually, now that I think about it, Dave Christensen has done that, Greg Davis will go zone read all night. Texas is #3 against the run, but I'm not sure if that's because they're good at it or because teams don't even try given the squeezably soft pass defense. In any event, even if the Horns make Mizzou one dimensional, that dimension is pretty good. The OVER is 5-1 in games involving these teams this year. Shootout.

Colorado -3 1/2 Kansas State - Colorado opened 3-0 against the number before dropping their last 3. But those losses were to some pretty decent football teams, as they failed to cover on the road against Florida State and Kansas and at home against, in hindsight, what was a pretty undervalued Texas team. Meanwhile, K-State got to pick up a road win against an absolutely terrible Texas A&M team to end a 3 game ATS skid. The Buffaloes drew top 20 teams in their first two conference games to start 0-2 making this one they'll be hungry to win. K-State gave up 544 yards of offense to Texas A&M last week. Read that again, 544 yards to Texas A&M.

Iowa State +7 1/2 Nebraska - Last week is playing WAY too heavily on this line. Entering last Saturday, Iowa State was 4-0-1 against the number while Nebraska was 2-3 with the two covers coming against absolute nobodies. But, Nebraska took Texas Tech to overtime and Iowa State got blown out at Baylor (that's a decent Baylor team, by the way...with a QB that will be a star soon). So, all of a sudden, Iowa State is getting more than a touchdown at home? I don't buy it. The Cyclones are 3-0 against the number this year, with all the covers being by more than a touchdown, and going back to last year they've covered 6 straight in Ames. Nebraska has covered only 2 of their last 7 away from home.

Oklahoma -19 1/2 Kansas - Lots of bad things happening for the good guys here...Oklahoma coming off a loss to Texas last week, game in Norman, KU hasn't been sharp on the road since the unraveling against South Florida started, the Jayhawks turn the ball over and the Sooners don't, etc. If this game in close after the first quarter, it could be a close ball game, but Oklahoma has started quickly this year...winning first quarters by a cumulative 110-6, while Kansas has actually LOST the first quarter, both overall and in road games. This one could get ugly early.

Northwestern -4 Purdue - The Wildcats finally fell from the ranks of the unbeatens last week, even though they outgained Michigan State by 160+ yards as a 2 point dog. Alas, they lost the turnover battle 3-0, gave up too many short fields, and didn't make the Spartans (a team that's way too good to give lots of help to) drive long fields. Purdue isn't as bad as they look, they've had a tough schedule...at least tough as Big Ten schedules go, but Northwestern is in a spot here where they should really play well and win going away.

Leans:

South Florida -24
Wisconsin +4
Texas Tech -21

NFL: Week 6

New Orleans -7 Oakland - The Saints lost a heartbreaker on Monday night and have the short week to prepare for a bad Raiders team at home. What's attractive about this game, though...is that New Orleans is a decent football team, and them being in last place in their division right now makes this a bit of a must-win. Desperation is usually good to put your money behind. Oakland is breaking in a new interim head coach, though they should be quitting on the season any minute now. New Orleans is 2-1 at home SU and ATS and has covered 5 of the last 6 against the Raiders. Oakland is 0-5 ATS since 2003 coming off their BYE week.

NY Jets -9 1/2 Cincinnati - The Bengals aren't a great football team even when healthy and showing up at Brett Favre's house without Carson Palmer available puts them in an even more vulnerable position. On top of that, the Jets are rested off their BYE week, which is a position they've played very well in (covering each of their last 6). The Bengals are 31st in total offense and just won't be able to match the scoring of the Jets in this one.

Green Bay +1 Seattle - Green Bay dropped a game they shouldn't have last week and rolls into Seattle as an underdog against a Seahawks team that isn't very good. While they are typically tough at home, this is a game that the Packers have to have. Lost in the hoopla of Favre's departure is that Aaron Rodgers has played pretty well. The Pack are 8th in passing offense, while Rodgers in 6th is passing yards individually, and he's tossed 9 TDs against 4 INTs. Pretty solid play. They'll have options offensively as the Seahawks don't stop either the run (24th) or the pass (25th) very well.

Leans:

Houston -3 (The Dolphins are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 as an underdog of 4 or less)
Carolina +1 1/2 (Nothing particular...just a feeling)
Washington -13 (The Rams closest game has been an 15 point ATS loss)

NCAA Week 7

Well, a trip to Vegas and my golf club's Ryder Cup weekend meant two weeks off from the blog. But I'm back, rested, and ready to kill my (and your) bookie. We're going to stay largely in the Big 12 this week so, onto the picks....

Texas Tech -20 1/2 Nebraska - The Huskers got rolled up by Mizzou in Lincoln and this is an equally bad spot for them. Tech will have rolled up half a hundred by the end of the 3rd quarter. The Red Raiders are 3-0 against the number this year, while Nebraska is 2-3 and hasn't been away from home, yet. Tech has covered the last 2 in this series and 4 of the last 6, including a 70-10 beatdown in the last meeting in Lubbock...which was the most points ever scored against the Cornhuskers until last year when they lost to the best team in college football history.

Missouri - 14 Oklahoma State - Vegas is correctly valuing Missouri at this piont, but Okie State is getting WAY too much respect. This is a team that's probably improved, and will end up being pretty good, but they've played nobody and they're 4-0 against the number. While I hate Mizzou as much as the next guy and hope OSU pulls the upset outright, it's just not going to happen. The Tigers are 3-1 against the number, they were 10-2 ATS last year, and they've covered 5 of the last 6 against the Cowboys.

Northwestern +1 1/2 Michigan State - Tough spot for Sparty this week. They're probably the better team here, but this game falls in between home games against Iowa (which they narrowly won) and Ohio State (who they host next week). These teams have one common opponent in Iowa, which both beat narrowly...though Northwestern got that win on the road. So, Northwestern is at home, as an underdog, with a week's rest, the line is moving down even with most of the best on Michigan State, and the Wildcats are 5-1 against the number in the last 6 in the series.

The Red River Shootout - The Longhorns have won 2 of the last 3 in this series (covering all 3) and lost by a touchdown last year when Jamaal Charles fumbled inside the Sooner 5 and Colt McCoy threw an interception. Outside of the turnovers, Texas played better. On the flip side, Sam Bradford was a true freshman playing quarterback in his 5th game. He was pretty good that day and should be better this year. The Sooner offensive line has something like 600 starts between them at this point, and OU had a much easier time running the ball in the game last year (170 yards on 4.1/carry vs 61 yards on 2.1/carry for Texas). With OU having everybody back, and the Horns losing Charles...that advantage should grow this year. These teams have both rolled and are a combined 10-0 against the number this year. OU has to get the (slight) objective nod, as TCU is better than anybody Texas has played and Cincinnati might be, too. Still, an ass-whipping at Colorado is a good win. Should be a hell of a ball game...I'll take Oklahoma -6 1/2.

Leans:
Baylor -4 1/2
Colorado +14
Tulsa -24

NCAA Power Rankings

1. USC - Their 2nd beatdown of BYE told us as much as their 1st.
2. Oklahoma - Gets to pound a ranked team in Norman in improve their resume.
3. Florida - Winning like that in Knoxville, even when Tennessee sucks, is impressive.
4. Missouri - If they don't get better defensively, this season will end in disappointment.
5. Georgia - Joined a growing list of teams that can beat up on the PAC 10.
6. Texas - Just dismantled a not that bad Rice team.
7. LSU - Great win against Auburn and this is a team that will get better.
8. Wisconsin - A week to rest before they make us all money in Ann Arbor.
9. Wake Forest - Good defense. Soft (SOFT!) schedule. They're BCS bound.
10. Alabama - Might be a short stay, as they hit the road to play UGa Saturday.

Sunday Night Football

Dallas -3 Green Bay - The Packers resume is pretty thin at this point, as they've held off a Minnesota team that fired it's QB at home and went on the road to beat what's turning into a pretty terrible Lions team. So, when they're playing in primetime against a team that is legitimately good and only getting a field goal? Lay the points. If you need some history, Dallas won and covered the only recent matchup, a 10 point win in Dallas last year. Green Bay, rarely an underdog in home games, hasn't been great as the home dog...going 2-5 SU and 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 in that spot.

NFL: Week 3

Not a very appealing slate of games this week. Lots of numbers that seem awfully close to correct and 15 of 16 home teams are favored, so I'll go with a couple of those home favorites I like...

Atlanta -6 1/2 Kansas City - The Chiefs started the season terrible, and they've piled two injured quarterbacks and a loudmouth, overpaid, prima donna running back that's pissed off to the mix. The defense is still OK, but they're on the field for 45 minutes and every opponent drive starts on the 40. If I'm going to suffer through this terrible football, I'm at least going to make some money for it. Until further notice, always play against Kansas City if they're getting a touchdown or less on the road or if they're getting 4 or less at home. Vegas will eventually figure it out, but we've got to take advantage while we can.

Denver -5 1/2 New Orleans - Denver is the better team here and they're at home. They survived a great effort from San Diego last week in a heck of a ballgame (marred by a pretty bad call at the end) to go to 2-0. Lost in the hard-fought road loss that the Saints suffered last week was that they were outgained by 200 yards. This is the best team they've faced, they're away from home, and they've struggled the first two weeks with a couple of middling teams. This is a game that could turn into a semi-shootout, but the Broncos have more bullets. Denver is 4-1-1 in their last 6 at Mile High.

Tennessee -4 1/2 Houston - The Texans had last week off, but I doubt that will matter. The Titans roll in at 2-0 and shed their poor quarterback for their better one (officially a knee on the NFL injury report). The defense is just too good, though. The Tennessee unit was 5th in total defense last season and have picked up right where they left off allowing just 202 yards per game in the first two weeks. They're doing a little bit of running back by committee, and both guys are good, so they've got the ability to wear defenses down running the football while forcing opposing offenses into 3 and outs at a higher than average rate. Houston has covered only 1 of their last 8 away from home.

Leans:

Washington -3 Arizona - Juice is high on the 'Skins side right now, so I'm gonna wait and see if it moves.

NCAA Football: Week 4

Tulsa -10 New Mexico - Tulsa's home opener after opening with a couple of easy road wins (and covers) as a double digit favorite. New Mexico is 1-2 SU and ATS and getting a bit too much respect for their win last week. The Golden Hurricane were off last week and have 2 weeks to prepare. The Lobos are an improving program, won a bowl game, and enjoyed a 9 win season last year. But, they're just not to the point yet where you they're likely to hang with a good team, on the road, with an offense as explosive as Tulsa's.

Georgia Tech -7 1/2 Mississippi State - MSU is a bad football team with a very, very bad offense. They only crossed the 50 once last week, and that was on a "drive" that started on their own 46 before going 9 yards and being turned over on downs as they grinded out 116 yards of total offense. Auburn missed 2 field goals and turned it over 3 times to allow the Bulldogs a miracle cover. The sledding won't be as easy today. Georgia Tech suffered a close, tough road loss to Virginia Tech last week while outgaining the Hokies by 140 yards.

NCAA Football: Week 4

Leans for tomorrow's ball games...

Georgia Tech -7 1/2
Middle Tennessee +6
Auburn +3
Tulsa -10
Eastern Michigan +21
Florida -7 1/2
San Jose State +8

Look for a couple of these to turn into plays for a relatively big card tomorrow.

NCAA Football: Week 4

Michigan State -8 1/2 Notre Dame – Michigan State returned to a bowl game last year to reverse the trend of 3 straight losing seasons. They've been Golden Domer killers for the last decade or so, going 9-2 against the number in the last 11 matchups. Lost in the misery of Notre Dame's beatdown of 6-turnover Michigan last week (and my losing bet) was that the Wolverines outgained the Irish by almost 130 yards, and Notre Dame's offense really wasn't able to run or pass the ball reliably. Now that offense goes on the road against a team that can legitimately score and won't give them a defensive score and two other drives that start inside the 20...Sparty has turned it over just 4 times in their opening 3 games, and were 18th best in the country last year at protecting the football.

Akron -10 Army – Army is among the worst teams in D1 football. They've only covered 1 of their last 8 and most of those non-covers have been by multiple scores. Since Syracuse isn't on the board this week, we're left with Army as our “play against this team until they cover one” team. Akron won and covered this matchup last year, and Army lost their 3 best receivers on that team. Akron failed to cover last week behind the strength of 5 turnovers (after turning it over just twice in their first 2 games). The piss-poor weather has moved out, so expect the Zips to get back to hanging onto the football, and score a comfortable victory over the Black Knights.

Wake Forest +5 Florida State – The Seminoles probably deserve a round of applause as this week they finally play a D1 team after opening with Western Carolina and Chattanooga. FSU destroyed both of those teams, but I'm still not ready to anoint them the Florida State teams of old. Wake has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series and won the last two outright. They've also covered 4 of their last 5 road games. Meanwhile the Seminoles were 3-7-2 against the number last year, including 1-3-2 at home.

Fresno State -7 Toledo – Fresno State is coming off a frustrating home loss to Wisconsin in a game where they outgained the Badgers but gave points away to suffer a narrow defeat and should come into this game pissed off. Toledo rolls in getting too much respect after pounding Eastern Michigan last week. They return only 3 starters on offense, struggled in week 1 against Arizona, and will find the sledding tough against Fresno's front 7. Toledo's traditional home field advantage has crumbled the last two years, as they've gone 5-7 in back-to-back seasons and slipped from their perch as MAC darlings.

Missouri -32 1/2 Buffalo – The Tigers have been a covering machine dating back to the beginning of last season. They finished the 2007 season 11-2 SU and 10-3 against the number. They've picked up right where they left off this year, covering both of their listed games so far. This is a team you've got to play until they cool off, and large numbers aren't too big of a problem because Gary Pinkel doesn't mind doing things like faking a field goal with a 4 touchdown lead. Buffalo has some reasonable talent on offense, and may even score a little bit in this game...but I don't see any way they hold Mizzou under half a hundred.

NCAA Power Rankings

1. USC - Great team, soft schedule, probably booking rooms in Miami.
2. Oklahoma - Another dominating win. Lost DeMarcus Granger for the year.
3. Florida - Tons of speed and the most favorable schedule of the SEC contenders.
4. Missouri - Possibly the best offense in the country.
5. Georgia - Lack of explosiveness on offense is going to catch up with them. Soon.
6. Texas - Still a couple weeks away from find out how good they are.
7. LSU - Finally get to see their offense play somebody on Saturday.
8. Wisconsin - Good team, Bad conference. Their 3 toughest games are at home.
9. East Carolina - Obvious let-down game but they survived.
10. Auburn - The defense is outstanding, but we need to know if they can score.

Monday Night Football

Dallas -6 1/2 Philadelphia - The Eagles probably getting a little too much respect in this spot...as they rolled last week, but it was a terrible Rams squad that they beat up on. In Philly. The Cowboys are legitimately good this year, better than last year, even. Don't call me Pacman Jones improves the secondary, while making Marion Barber the feature back makes the offense better. Romo and the offense were flat out terrible in the Dallas matchup last year after rolling in Philly, and they'll be looking to make amends in this one. Close game early, Dallas just ultimately has too much on both sides of the ball.

NFL: Week 2 Continued

Washington PK New Orleans - Too close to kickoff for any sort of writeup. Good Luck today.

NFL: Week 2

Carolina -3 Chicago - The Panthers spent the offseason getting healthy and are no longer running David Carr or Vinny Testaverde out there at QB. This team much more closely resembles the one that went to the NFC championship game 2 years ago. The Bears are getting propped up here by the nice win in Indy, but they don't have the benefit of a QB that hadn't practiced all preseason this week and they won't find the gaping holes for the running game that the Colts' defense gave them. This is the Bears second straight road game, a historically tough spot in the NFL, as the home team enjoyed a 39-29 record in that situation last season. Carolina has covered 5 of their last 6 overall and 3 straight at home.

San Diego +1 Denver - Betting against the public here. The Chargers opened as a 3 point favorite but money has poured in on Denver after their primetime humiliation of the Raiders. The Raiders probably aren't as bad as they looked last Sunday and the Broncos not as good. The opening line was about right, I think...so this is a value play. San Diego has owned Denver, and the whole division actually, lately. The Chargers are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Broncos and have covered 7 of their last 8 against the AFC West. The Chargers had one home loss last year...the following week they went to Denver as a 1 1/2 point favorite and won 41-3.

Minnesota +1 1/2 Indianapolis - Two teams coming off extremely disappointing performances in week 1. Indy scratched together a mediocre run defense last year but the Bears made them look like 2006's defense, which ranked dead last in the NFL before miraculously coming together for the Super Bowl run. The Colts will still end up being a good team, but the defense has question marks, Peyton still has less that 10 practices under his belt, and they play a tough Viking team today that will be able to run the football.

NY Giants -8 1/2 St. Louis - I don't even want to play this game, but it's just not enough points. The Giants were a considerably better road team than they were at home last year, going 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the number. On the other hand, the Rams were 1-7 at home and lost those games by an average of 9 points. Against what you might loosely define as a good team, they were 0-3 SU, ATS and lost by an average of 2 touchdowns. I'm not really in love with the Giants here as much as I'm convinced that the Rams are really, really bad.

Tampa Bay -7 Atlanta - I'm still not convinced on Atlanta. They looked good offensively last week, and that's holding this number down, but they were playing at home against the team that ranked last in the NFL in total defense last year. Today, they take their rookie QB on the road to play the defense that finished 2007 ranked 2nd in total defense and as the best in the league against the pass. So, the road will be much tougher sledding today. The Bucs were 6-2 at home (SU and ATS) last year and were 6-3 ATS overall as a favorite.

Leans...

Buffalo +4 1/2
San Francisco +6 1/2
Miami +6 1/2

San Fran and Miami would have both been plays at 7 or higher. Neither one of my books has it that high, but keep an eye out. The 49ers are +7 lots of places and the Fish are +7 one or two places. I'll play either one of those if they move to 7 somewhere I can bet.

College Football: Week 3

Adding...

Oklahoma -21 Washington - Oklahoma toyed with Cincinnati last week before stepping on the gas and looking like they might be the best team in the country. Both the offensive and defensive units have a ton of talent and Stoops has them playing with purpose. They're playing in a cushy road spot against a Huskie team that has lost 9 of their last 11 at home. Their home games were a bit of a mixed bag last year...3-4 ATS, 2-5 SU, they played USC tough but lost to a bad Washington State team and got run over by Oregon. They won't have enough to hang with the Sooners today.

Arkansas State -2 1/2 Southern Miss - The Indians return a bunch off a team that was 5-1 SU at home last year. They opened this season with an ATS and SU win over Texas A&M before hanging 83 on Texas Southern last week. Southern Miss was a talented but underachieving team last year, and it seems like they're not quite ready to shed that label, yet. They rallied late for a backdoor cover against Auburn last week, but that game wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate.

College Football: Week 3

Fresno State +2 Wisconsin - The home opener for the Bulldogs after they opened with an easy win at Rutgers. The Badgers hit the road, where they've been a different team, after a couple of home gimmes. Wisconsin was 0-5 ATS on the road last year and they've gone 3-6-1 against the number in roadies over the last 2 years. Fresno has been a predictable covering machine, paying their bettors in 7 of their last 10 and winning 7 of their last 8 home games SU. Plus, Wisconsin plays in the Big Ten, so there's a pretty good chance that Fresno State is the better team.

Michigan -2 Notre Dame - The Notre Dame offense is still absolutely terrible. I expected some improvement from the unit that was 119th (dead last) in college football last year but didn't see any as they sputtered along against a bad, bad San Diego State team. The Irish have been a non-covering machine (which I ignored last week, apparently), going 3-11 ATS in their last 14 at home. The Wolverines are in game 3 of the Rich Rogriguez era and have some of their own problems to address, but they're a lot closer to a functional football team than the Golden Domers.

Kansas / South Florida UNDER 48 1/2 - These two teams return a combined 16 starters on their defenses from units that ranked 12th (Kansas) and 28th (South Florida) in the country last year. This year's Kansas defense has given up 3 points in two games and while South Florida appeared to struggle last week with Central Florida, the defense played well...only giving up 226 yards and 12 first downs. Both teams ranked in the top 20 in turnover margin last year, Kansas by not giving many and taking some and South Florida by giving a bunch and taking more.

Akron +7 Ball State - Both of these teams feature offenses that use a pretty balanced attack to move the ball down the field and both teams are pretty good at it. Any time you have a game that could break out into a "who has the ball last?" track meet, getting a touchdown with the home team is a value play. Akron's defense has arguably shown a little more...as they haven't given up much against the pass. The flip side of that is that Wisconsin beat them by running them over, so they didn't need to pass, and Syracuse just isn't very good.

Leans:

Oklahoma -21 Washington
Arkansas State -2 1/2 Southern Miss
USC -11 1/2 Ohio State
USC / Ohio State UNDER 44 1/2

NCAA Power Rankings

1. USC - Two weeks to prepare for Ohio State and is a double digit home favorite.
2. Oklahoma - Can humiliate DI-A teams, too. Cincinnati isn't that bad.
3. Georgia - Manhandled Central Michigan...Stafford even looked decent.
4. Florida - Miami's defense gave them some trouble.
5. Missouri - Didn't learn anything by watching them boat-race a I-AA school.
6. Texas - Shaky start against UTEP but restored order quickly.
7. LSU - DNP, Hurricane.
8. East Carolina - Most impressive pair of wins in the country at this point.
9. Auburn - Took them 102 minutes of football to yield their first points of the season.
10. Ohio State - Probably shouldn't be this high and won't be much longer.

NFL: Week 1

Jacksonville -3 Tennessee - Best number on the board. The Jags qualify in my NFL strategy of always laying 3 points or less with the obviously better team. When a team is obviously better and just a field goal favorite, they're usually on the road and this game is no exception. Not to worry, the Jags were 6-2 against the number away from home last year, with 1 of those ATS losses being in week 17 while they were resting starters for the playoffs. More reasons to feel good, the Titans were just 3-5 against the number at home last year and have failed to cover their last 3 as an underdog. The Jags have covered 6 straight as a favorite.

NY Jets -3 Miami - Both of these teams were pretty terrible last year. In the offseason, the Jets added Brett Favre (maybe you heard about it...ESPN was pretty quiet on the matter) and Miami added Ricky Williams and a dime bag. The Jets have owned this series lately, as they are 8-0-1 ATS in the last 9 and they've covered 9 of the last 10 in Miami.

Detroit -3 Atlanta - Yeah, so I'm taking my 3rd road favorite. It's like a 12 year old girl is writing this blog and picking based on how pretty the uniforms are. But hey, it's week 1...weird stuff gets everybody. Detroit was a pretty up and down team last year, but they were relatively reliable as a favorite...covering 3 out of 4. The Falcons were pretty predictable as a home dog last year, putting up just a 2-5 mark against the number in that situation. Oh, yeah...and the Lions are better.

NCAA Week 2...Continued

Oklahoma -21 1/2 Cincinnati - Both of these teams played lower division schools last week and rolled, so we really don't know too much about either one of them. We do know that Cincy is replacing their QB and he looked good last week, but OU in Norman isn't exactly Eastern Kentucky. OU led by 50 at halftime last week and ended up scoring point (57) than they gave up yards (36). The Sooners were 5-2 against the number as a home favorite last season.

Kansas -20 1/2 Louisiana Tech - This line should be in the 24 or 25 range but is suffering from a little (over)reaction to the games from last week. Louisiana Tech covered the 7 1/2 against Mississippi State but didn't look good. They pretty much couldn't run the ball at all, it took them 41 pass attempts to rack up 161 yards in the passing game, and they were outgained overall by 80 yards. The Bulldogs survived by benefitting from 5 turnovers and their 2 touchdown drives that TOTALED 21 yards. The Jayhawks were 4th in the country last year protecting the football...only turning it over 14 times in 13 games. No short fields, an offense that struggled against MSU, a stout Kansas defense that returns 9 starters from a top 10 unit, and KU getting their legs under them offensively should mean an easy Jayhawk victory.

More Leans...

Tulsa / North Texas OVER 66
Middle Tennessee State +13 Maryland
Auburn -17 1/2 Southern Miss
Texas -26 UTEP

NCAA Football: Week 2

Northwestern -6 1/2 Duke - Best number on the board. This line has been held down nicely by the fact that Duke sprung the upset last year in Chicago. But that game was a little bit fluky, and about as misleading as outcomes can be. The Wildcats outgained Duke by almost 200 yards, lost the turnover battle, and had 3 empty trips inside the Duke 10. Last week, breaking in 3 new offensive linemen, Northwestern started slow before getting their offense in a groove (and winning this blog some money). Duke played FCS James Madison, a team that doesn't even pretend they want to throw the ball (11 attempts last week), and gave up 5.1 yards per carry on the ground. Duke will have a lot of trouble with Northwestern's balanced, improving attack. Northwestern is 4-2 against the number in their last 6 against Duke and covered in their only attempt last year as a road favorite. Duke was 1-4 ATS and 0-5 straight up and home last season.

Notre Dame -21 1/2 San Diego State - Neither one of these teams were very good last year, but the Irish return pretty much everybody and add an inexplicably good recruiting class. There is pretty much no way they're not vastly improved, and they may even up being a pretty decent team. San Diego State loses a ton, including a 3000 yard QB that was also their leading rusher and accounted for over 75% of the team's total offense.

Akron +4 1/2 Syracuse - Even I underestimated how badly Greg Robinson sucks last week, so this is a team to keep betting against until they figure it out. The Orangemen were a very impressive 2-5 ATS, 1-6 SU in the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome last season, and they struggled mightily against Northwestern's defense last week. Akron's defense might be better. They were pushed around and simply out-manned against a good Wisconsin team that ran up 404 rushing yards against them last week. Syracuse doesn't provide nearly as much of a threat and will have no choice but to have Akron hang around in this one.

Leans:
Kansas -20 1/2 Louisiana Tech
Central Michigan +24 Georgia
Bowling Green -6 Minnesota
Oklahoma -21 1/2 Cincinnati

More to come....

NCAA Power Rankings

1. USC - Domination of Virginia in Charlottesville impressive. Will improve as Sanchez gains experience.
2. Georgia - Lots of talent. Pedestrian QB play and a brutal SEC schedule will be tough on the Bulldogs.
3. Oklahoma - 50-0 halftime lead tells us OU was considerably better than Chattanooga...but I think we knew that.
4. Ohio State - The Big 10 is pretty bad again, so they'll probably punch another ticket to a BCS Championship beatdown.
5. Florida - Maybe the most speed in the country and won't rely on Teabow as much this year.
6. Missouri - Offense in mid-season form, defense made Juice Williams look like Tom Brady.
7. Texas - Soundly manhandles a pretty decent team, immediately has more off-field problems.
8. LSU - Refused to let Appalachian State shock the world again. Lots of talent in Baton Rouge.
9. West Virginia - Won't miss Slaton much. Pat White and Noel Devine will provide plenty of firepower.
10. Kansas - Default number 10. Too many of the other big boys struggled.

The Big 12 and SEC are so far and away the best conferences that it's ridiculous. Both can make a semi-legitimate argument for 5 teams in the top 10.

NCAA Sunday

Colorado (-12) Colorado State - The Rams welcome a new coaching staff to this rivalry, in which they've covered the number in 5 of the last 7. But Colorado builds on a young team from last season, with a year of experience under the Hawkins' belt (QB not coach). The Buffs get 14 starters back from a team that was 4-1 ATS as a favorite last year. That team was very up and down, beating Oklahoma and Texas Tech in Lubbock, but losing to Iowa State and getting hammered by K-State. That team had all the signs of a young team that's ready to make the next step, and warming up against a team that was 3-9 last year is just what the doctor ordered.

NCAA Week 1...Continued

Adding...

Northwestern (-11 1/2) Syracuse - Syracuse was a pretty good football team until Greg Robinson showed up. And anybody that has ever rooted for the Kansas City Chiefs or Texas Longhorns probably could have told you that was coming. The Orange are 7-28 since his arrival and open on the road against a Northwestern Wildcat squad that returns 19 starters. On offense, Northwestern will spread the field and generally do things that Robinson can't figure out. On defense, they return their front 4 to battle an offensive line that gave up 54 sacks last year, which was next to last ahead of only Notre Dame (speaking of coaches that kill programs). Northwestern will score points in this game, and Syracuse is unlikely to keep pace with an offense that scored over 20 points only twice all of last season.

Leans...

Kentucky +3 1/2
California -5
Bowling Green +13 1/2

College Football: Week 1

As always, light schedule for week 1.

Missouri (-9) Illinois - My favorite number on the board. Mizzou returns a whole bunch off a team that beat everybody but Oklahoma and squares off against a Big Ten squad that got killed in a BCS game they didn't deserve to be in and lost 10 starters. Juice Williams is a competent quarterback, but he's mostly a ground guy and he'll be working without Rashard Mendenhall and going against a defense that returns 10 starters from a unit that improved as the year went along and was pretty formidable by season's end. Ultimately, Mizzou just has too much fire power. This is a good team with very high goals that will be ready to roll quickly. Gary Pinkel is 3-0 against Illinois and Missouri has won 9 of the last 12 in the series.

Virginia Tech (-9 1/2) East Carolina - Virginia Tech has 7 starters to replace on offense, but they've finally settled on one quarterback, they get their top 2 runners back, and they return 4 starters off a pretty good offensive line. The Hokies started slow last year with a sluggish win over this ECU team followed by a pounding at the hands of eventual national champion LSU. But after that they got the ship righted and only lost two more times, once to a late Boston College rally that included an onside kick and once in the Orange Bowl to what was probably the best college football team of all time. Beamer will be able to reload the defense a bit, and an experienced power running game should be enough to win this one going away.

Western Michigan (+14 1/2) Nebraska - Does anybody really think Nebraska is going to go from terrible to two TD favorites against a decent team that quickly? Me neither. The Broncos return all 11 starters on defense and get Tim Hiller (QB, 3000+ yards) back from injury. Meanwhile, 13 starters are back for Nebraska but a good chunk of them wouldn't play at half the Big 12 schools. Joe Ganz and Marlon Lucky combine as a formidable force but gone is all-everything wideout Maurice Purify. The Cornhuskers are likely good enough to win this game, but I don't think it's by 3 scores.