NFL: Week 3

San Francisco -2 1/2 Kansas City - On the one hand, a winning record for the Chiefs means Arrowhead will be loud. On the other hand, the 49ers are a good squad on the brink of 0-3 which will mean a spirited effort. The Chiefs are still searching for some points from their offense, which they're likely to need today. Vegas still slightly overvalues Arrowhead, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find a season where they were didn't have a losing record there ATS.

NCAA: Week 4

Georgia PK Mississippi State - The battle of the Bulldogs usually is a couple touchdown spread, but a falter UGa team and a slightly resurgent MSU squad has made these teams pretty even. Georgia is just the better team here. Both of these teams are better on the road, over the last 4 years MSU is just 8-14 at home while Georgia is a strong 15-10 when they venture outside the hedges.

South Carolina +3 Auburn - The Tigers have been blessed so far by winning two close ballgames, including pulling a rabbit out of the hat against Clemson...but they haven't played a defense like South Carolina's, yet. Auburn was a really good home team last year, going 5-2 ATS, but that broke a pretty long funk of home futility against the number (they'd covered just 8 of their last 21 at home before last season). They may be back to struggling there, failing to cover so far this season in their first two tries.

Texas -15 1/2 UCLA - The Bruins are a run oriented team that just happens to roll into Austin to face the number one rushing defense in the country. The Longhorn schedule has a little bit to do with that, with plenty of spread offenses on it, but there's no reason to think that isn't legit since they led the country last year in yards per carry allowed. UCLA has covered just 1 of their last 5 as a road dog.

UNLV -10 1/2 New Mexico - The Lobos are just that bad. UNLV has covered 2 straight in the series.

Leans:

Boston College +4 1/2

Temple +14

Alabama -7

Cincinnati +14

NFL: Week 2

Tennessee -5 1/2 Pittsburgh - Lost in the dust of how bad Oakland looked last week was the Titans are a good football team. I'd expect them to be favored by a field goal at home even if Big Ben was playing, and he's worth more than a field goal.

San Diego -7 Jacksonville - J'ville scored a nice cover last week, and the Chargers look to rebound after a monsoon game loss on Monday night in Kansas City. The Chargers offense feels too explosive here and, though it might have been weather related, their defense was pretty stout outside of just a couple of big plays.

NCAA: Week 3

My keyboard is working about as well as Turner Gill coaches, so...no writeups with week.

Georgia -1 1/2 Arkansas

Texas -3 Texas Tech

UConn -6 Temple

Georgia Tech +3 North Carolina

NFL: Week 1

Jacksonville -3 Denver - The Broncos are going to be bad, kids...really bad. Even a banged up Jags team has enough. J'ville was admittedly awful against the spread last year, but they have covered both recent meetings against Denver. And I think they almost have to be better, whereas the 8-8 Denver pulled out of their asses last year was about their max.

Carolina +7 NY Giants - The Giants don't strike me as the sort of team that should be the biggest favorite of the weekend over anybody. The Giants were just 2-6 against the number at home last year, while Carolina squeaked out a profitable 5-3 ATS in roadies.

Miami -3 Buffalo - If you believe that the Dolphins are a team that'll be a fringe playoff contender, they pretty much have to win this game. I say they play well and get it done. The Fish have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series.

Green Bay -3 Philadelphia - The Pack have a lot of firepower and, while I think the Eagles will be pretty good, breaking in a new QB makes this a tough spot. Green Bay was outstanding on the road last year, covering in 6 of their 8 roadies, including winning 5 of those outright. These teams haven't met since '07, a Packers win as a home dog.

San Francisco -3 Seattle - The 49ers are the best team in their division, and I'll need to see something out of the Seahawks before I get worried about that home crowd.

I'm laying a lot of points on the road, but hey...it's week 1.

NCAA Football: Week 2

Penn State +13 Alabama - The Nittany Lions return 7 starters from a defensive unit that was among the best in the country last year. They were also really good away from home last year, going 4-0 ATS in road games and earning a push as a favorite against LSU in their bowl game. Even if they struggle some on offense, 13 sounds like a lot of points.

Georgia Tech -13 1/2 Kansas - Kansas ran 4 special teams plays with only 10 men on the field, they were out of timeouts with 8 minutes left, and if you take out one nice 50+ yard end around, they averaged under 2 yards per carry. Two linemen starters have changed, the QB has been changed, and the panic button has apparently been pushed. Oh, when the Ramblin' Wreck have the ball, an undersized interior defensive line will be tasked with stopping the most intricate, varied, and successful option attack in college football.

Michigan +3 1/2 Notre Dame - I hate to overreact to week 1, but the Wolverines dismantled a pretty good UConn team last week. If they keep getting that sort of QB play, RichRod might actually get to keep his job. Notre Dame has covered 4 of the last 5 in South Bend, but the play here is that Michigan has turned the corner. Rodriguez had some great teams at West Virginia, after all, and it's just a matter of time before he figured it out at Michigan.

Leans:

Iowa State +14 Iowa - Paul Rhodes is doing a heck of a job in Ames.

Texas -27 1/2 Wyoming - Does UT's new focus on running it shorten games and make big numbers hard to cover?

Texas Tech -24 New Mexico - The Lobos are bad. Really bad. Wish they were on KU's schedule bad.

NCAA Football: Week 1

Texas -31 Rice - Texas has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series with all 5 of those covers being wins by 41 or more points. Rice is occasionally interesting when they have a good team, but they run the spread and make no attempt to shorten the game and the athlete difference is so big here that it'll get ugly. I think Texas will have a borderline great defense this year, which keeps me from being scared away by such a big number.

UConn +3 Michigan - The Huskies return an assortment of starters from the team that led all of college football in record against the number last year (at 10-2). They're also unlikely to be intimidated by the Big House, sporting a win at Notre Dame and a narrow loss at Cincinnati last season during a run that left them perfect against the spread away from home. UConn's 5 SU losses were by a combined 15 points, and they led in the 4th quarter in 4 of those games. Michigan should be improved, this play is more about how good I think UConn can be...think '06 Jayhawks or '07 Cincinnati as a team that was close right before putting it all together the next year. Darkhorse BCS bowl candidate here.

Oklahoma State -17 Washington State - WSU is bad until they prove otherwise. They didn't show any real flashes of improvement last year under 2nd year coach Paul Wulff. They do return a bunch of starters, while Okie State lost a ton, but this is another situation where the talent disparity is large. Gundy generally has his team playing well early, as the Cowboys have won 18 of their last 19 September games in Stillwater.

K-State -2 UCLA - The Cats got better as the year went along last season and were pretty tough in Manhattan. This roster having a year under their belt in Snyder's system will help, and their running game is good and will give a talented but inexperienced UCLA defense a stout test.

Leans:

Mizzou -12 Illinois - Gary Pinkel is 5-0 ATS against Illinois since taking over in Columbia.

Purdue +11 Notre Dame - Leading rusher for Boilers injured...scared me away.