NFL: Week 16

A couple road favorites....

Patriots -8 Buffalo
Ravens -3 1/2 Cleveland

NFL: Week 15

Dallas -7 Washington - I liked the Cowboys here early in the week and that was before old man Shanahan decided he has to show everybody how smart he is by starting Rex Grossman. Dallas comes in having covered 5 straight, while the Skins have only covered 1 of their last 6.

Detroit +4 1/2 Tampa Bay - This Bucs team was/is an overachieving bunch, but at this point, they're decimated by injuries. Maybe they figure out a way to win this game, but it'll be a battle. I'll take he points. This Lions team doesn't win much, but they're a Vegas delight...going 9-4 against the number to date.

NY Giants -3 Philadelphia - Huge game for control of the NFC East. The Giants have a defensive line that's uniquely suited to handling Michael Vick, and in the game in Philly...they did control him on the running side. The Giants were doomed in that game by 5 turnovers from their offense. Their running attack in working nicely these days with the one-two punch of Bradshaw and Jacobs, so their ball control will be better today. Full disclosure, the Eagles have covered 5 straight in this series.

Leans:
Atlanta -6
NY Jets +4 1/2
New Orleans +2

NFL: Week 13

NY Giants -7 Washington - Giants are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Baltimore -3 Pittsburgh - I think Baltimore is better and don't trust a banged up Big Ben.

Denver +9 Kansas City - Too many points. Road team has covered 3 of the last 4.

Arizona +3 1/2 St Louis - Rams first time being on the road in back to back weeks on the season and they're probably getting a little too much love. Cards have covered 5 of the last 6.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

NCAA: Championship Saturday

Oklahoma -4 1/2 Nebraska - The swan song for the Cornhuskers in the Big 12 before taking their ball and running to the Big Ten. Interesting that NU can spend 60 years pounding the Big 8, and all that can be unraveled by a dozen years of having Texas and Oklahoma punk you. If it's not too much trouble, I hope the Big 12 sends their worst crew to JerryWorld, and Oklahoma has something like a 18-4 advantage in penalties. This rivalry hasn't been of the "throw the records out" sort, as the favorite is 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS over the last 10. Oklahoma is playing in their 8th Big 12 title game, and they're 6-1 in the previous 7. The south champ has been a solid play in this game historically, going 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS since the formation of the conference.

Oregon State +16 1/2 Oregon and South Carolina +5 1/2 Auburn - These games where a team can win and they're in the BCS title game historically lead the favorite to play pretty tight (see: Longhorns, Texas 2009). At least that's how it seems to me, I don't really have much data to back that up...just a feeling.

Louisiana Tech +8 Nevada - The Wolfpack hit the road after what I presume to be the biggest win their football program's history...it'll be pretty hard to get up for that. By itself, that's not so convincing, but the home team has dominated this series recently, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 against the number in the last 6. Bit of a steam play, too...public pretty solidly behind Nevada and this number had nosedived.

Leans:

South Florida -2

Cincinnati -2

SMU +9

NFL: Week 12

Atlanta -1 1/2 Green Bay - The Packers enter on what seems like an unsustainable hot streak, but that 4 game winning streak (both SU and ATS) has come against 3 crappy teams and an overrated Jets squad that I can't wait to bet against in the playoffs. Atlanta rides their own 4 game winning steak into this game, but they've done it against two 7 win teams and on the road against a suddenly resurgent Rams squad.

San Diego +3 Indianapolis - The underachieving Chargers have finally gotten it going and have new life in the AFC West race. The Colts are battling injuries more than perhaps any team in football. The underdog is 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS in the last 6 in this series and San Diego is 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Indy.

Jacksonville / NY Giants OVER 44 - Since the Jags have gotten more of their offensive pieces healthy, they've been a pretty good offensive team. The Giants enter on back-to-back disappointing losses within their division. J'ville has played 4 straight games that have gone over, while the Giants have gone over in 4 of their last 5.

Jacksonville +7 NY Giants - Too many points. The Jags losses have come to San Diego, Philly, Tennessee, and Kansas City. They've played a brutal schedule, largely without their QB, and have somehow emerged from that 6-4. They've covered 3 straight and 5 of their last 7.

San Francisco -1 Arizona - Arizona is terrible, San Fran is less terrible. The road team has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series, and the 49ers still have a chance to win the NFC West...if you can believe that.

Leans:

Seattle +2 1/2

St Louis +3 1/2

Philadelphia -3

NCAA: Week 12

Michigan State -1 1/2 Penn St - Sparty is playing for a share of the Big Ten title today, though it would be a pretty discouraging tie...since they'd likely be left out of the BCS bowl picture entirely with Ohio State and Wisconsin both heavy favorites today. They have the tie-breaker over Wisconsin, which means their fans will actually rooting for Michigan. Penn State isn't very good, MSU is coming off a shaky performance and should play well. If you need some numbers, this Spartan senior class is 10-5-1 ATS in road games.

Stanford -13 1/2 Oregon State - Good news, bad news trend here. Stanford is 12-4 against the number in the last 3 years at home, but they're just 4-9 SU, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 against Oregon State. This is the best of those Stanford teams, one of the best in the history of the school, and they're still playing for a BCS bowl...though that bowl isn't likely to be the Rose at this point.

Missouri -24 1/2 Kansas - When one team has the opportunity to crush the other in this series, they generally don't pass on it. In any sport. This game represents the biggest mismatch in recent memory, and Mizzou will take great pride in making this game get ugly. We learn today just how much Turner Gill understands about this rivalry.

More Plays:

Oklahoma +3 - OU owns this conference until proven otherwise and has been in a game this big before

Ole Miss +3 - Miss St is a road favorite now?

Iowa -15 - Bounce back spot from a tough loss to tOSU against a terrible Minnesota team

Leans:

BYU +9

USC -4

Ohio State/Michigan OVER 64

NFL: Week 10

No writeups

Plays:

Cleveland +3 NY Jets

Pittsburgh -4 1/2 New England

Tennessee -1 Miami

Minnesota -1 Chicago

Leans:

Seattle +3

Indy -7

NFL: Week 9

Cleveland +4 New England - Cleveland has quietly been a pretty decent team, but nobody has really noticed because the close losses to Tampa and Kansas City early in the season looked bad at the time. They come off a BYE here after a great win at New Orleans, and Colt McCoy today finally gets to face a crappy pass defense. The Browns have covered 5 of their last 7 at home, and they're 8-3-1 in their last last dozen as an underdog.

Atlanta -8 1/2 Tampa Bay - It's a good thing the Buccaneers exist, because it keeps the heat off my Chiefs as the crappiest team that's overachieved to 5-2. The flipside is those two losses were both ass-kickings against the only two good teams that they've played, and both of those were at home. This is the first time they've ventured on the road to play a team that's even decent. Today the pit their #30 run defense against the league's 5th best rushing offense.

Buffalo +3 Chicago - The Bills continue to play decently as the desperation for their first win sets in. After back-to-back overtime losses on the road, they return "home" (to Toronto) for their best chance at getting the win column off zero. After the Bears hot 3-0 start, they've won and covered just 1 of their last 4.

NY Giants -7 Seattle - When the Giants have the ball, Eli Manning and that high-powered offense will enjoy the 4th worst pass defense in the NFL. When the Seahawks have the ball, Charlie Whitehurst will play against a fierce front 7. Really tough spot for the Seattle here, even though the line has held fairly well in reverence to how tough it is to play there.

San Diego -3 Houston - The Chargers are still better than their record, while the Texans have only covered twice this year...so I'll back the Bolts for the 3rd week in a row. San Diego has won and covered 3 straight in the series.

Baltimore -5 Miami - Hunch play...feels like the Dolphins are getting a little too much love for being unbeaten on the road so far. Baltimore is getting healthy pieces back on defense, so they're probably a little better than they've shown so far, even though they've been fine W/L-wise.

NCAA: Week 10

No writeups. Lots of road favorites today. Not sure how I feel about that....

Missouri -4 1/2 Texas Tech

Alabama -6 1/2 LSU

Iowa State +17 Nebraska

Oklahoma -3 Texas A&M

Michigan State -24 Minnesota

NFL: Week 8

San Diego -4 Tennessee - Last week's analysis still holds true for the Chargers...at some point this team will stop firing bullets into its feet and win games. Last week they drastically outgained the Patriots, were -4 in turnover margin, and still managed to have a kick that would have sent the game into OT. So, it's back on the bandwagon today, with the Titans dragging the #24 total offense in the NFL to town. If the Chargers avoid giving short fields (a tall order, I know), Tennessee will struggle to move the ball. With last week's loss, San Diego fell to 4-2-1 in their last 7 home games.

New Orleans -1 Pittsburgh - Little bit of a steam play here but, while the Saints have been a general underachiever this year, this is turning into a game they might need. The Falcons look like they're for real, and they have a win in New Orleans, so the Saints know they have to get going to keep pace in the division. The Saints have covered 9 of their last 10 against AFC teams.

NY Jets -6 Green Bay - The Jets have probably not gotten quite enough respect, and it shows in their 5-1 ATS record. They come in here rested of the BYE week and ready for just their 2nd home game since week 2. After a fairly shaky performance in Denver, where they squeaked out a win and cover, I'd expect the Jets to play well today. It's also a tough spot for Green Bay, being a roadie jammed in between home games against Favre and Dallas. The Jets are 12-3 ATS over their last 15.

Buffalo +7 Kansas City - Another game where last week's analysis holds...Kansas City probably isn't as good as their record indicates, and Buffalo with Fitzpatrick isn't your typical terrible winless team. While the Bills really AREN'T very good, they have a couple of nice pieces and had the look last week of a team desperate to get a win. Buffalo won and covered in Arrowhead last year, though this is an admittedly different Chiefs team, and the Bills are 2-1 ATS on the road this year.

Detroit -2 1/2 Washington - The Lions are another team coming off a BYE, and they're getting Matthew Stafford back. They've been WAY better than their schedule indicates, and they draw a Washington team that is next to last in total defense...covered last week by the fact that Jay Cutler wouldn't stop throwing the ball to them. The Lions are 5-1 against the number this season.

Carolina +2 1/2 St Louis - The resurgent Rams have surprised, while Carolina has been terrible, but I like the Panthers in this spot. St Louis is giving up 4.6 yards per carry, which should help Carolina's potent but underachieving running game get on track. With DeAngelo Williams out, they won't be compelled to split the carries in some illogical way. Carolina has dominated this series historically, going 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in the last 16, including winning and covering the last 3.

NCAA: Week 9

Air Force +7 Utah - The Utes have covered several in a row, and Air Force hasn't covered in awhile which all leads to this line having some value. Utah is currently ranked 6th nationally against the run, but they've built that ranking against crappy run offenses (#52, #99, #111, #117, #63, #118, and #103). Utah is also in the tough position of going on the road against a funky offense you don't see much with TCU looming in a huge game next weekend with all sorts of BCS implications. If you're into trends, the underdog is 7-6 SU and 12-1 ATS in the last 13 in this series.

K-State +4 1/2 Oklahoma State - The Wildcats were an intriguing possibility here, even before OSU had to suspend their best receiver for a DUI (coming home from Monday Night Football in the middle of the night after sitting in Dez Bryant's seats...but hey, we're not here to uncover NCAA violations). K-State's defense has been pretty good when they're not facing a running QB, and pretty bad when they are, but the Cowboys don't really present that dimension. And for how good OSU looked running it against Nebraska last week, K-State actually has the better run offense and they're at home. K-State's numbers against the run are terrible, but they're kinda the opposite of Utah, the run offenses they've played have included #6, #22, #26, #30...all better than Okie State. K-State has won and covered 5 straight against OSU in Manhattan.

Iowa State -18 1/2 Kansas - If KU is going to suck, I might as well make some money on it. Iowa State has covered 7 of the last 8 at home in this series, and half that marks some pretty heady times for Jayhawk Football. TBD on how the Cyclones will handle last week's big win...they went to A&M and got blasted after springing the upset in Lincoln last year.

Iowa -6 1/2 Michigan State - Sparty has had a magical run, but there's a reason the computers don't like them (Sagarin's predictors has them just 25th, for example). And they're in a really tough spot on the road against a pissed off team today. Iowa has owned this series against the number (covering 7 of the last 8), and the Hawkeyes have been OUTSTANDING the last few years after SU losses, going 9-3-1 against the number in "bounce back" spots.

Hawaii -15 Idaho - Hawaii is always tough at home, they're finally putting the pieces together under the new coaching staff, they're back to leading the universe in passing, and they've been great against the number this year (6-1 so far). The favorite (usually Hawaii but not last year) has covered 6 straight in this series.

Clemson -7 Boston College - The BC Eagles are the ACC's version of Kansas until proven otherwise, but Clemson has actually looked awfully good at times this year. They were a monumental Auburn comeback away from winning that game, they played North Carolina tough in their last road game. If this team is as good as they've shown flashes of, this is a game they go get. Disclaimer: The underdog has won 4 of the last 5 in this series, though Clemson has won and covered 2 straight.

Leans:

Missouri +7 1/2 Nebraska

Northwestern -3 1/2 Indiana

Miami (OH) - 2 1/2 Buffalo

Texas Tech +7 1/2 Texas A&M

NFL: Week 7

Chicago -3 Washington - The Redskins roll into the windy city last in the NFL in total defense and, while the situation isn't quite as bad when you normalize for tempo, they're #29 defensively in yards/play. While the 'skins have covered 3 straight in Chicago, the Bears have beaten the number in 3 of their last 4 home games.

San Diego -2 1/2 New England - So, the Chargers are an interesting case..they lead the NFL in both total offense AND total defense, yet they're just 2-4. They have been really good in their two home games, moving their record to 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 in SoCal. The Chargers also seems to "get up" for shootout games, they've covered 10 of their last 11 against offensive teams that rank 5.7 or better in YPP (exactly what NE is at).

Buffalo +14 Baltimore - The Ravens offense is really not very good, and they're defense has actually slightly overperformed their numbers...they really shouldn't be laying 14 to anybody, even the worst team in football. The Bills have had two weeks to prepare, while Baltimore played a big game last week, and Fitzpatrick was playing kinda, sorta OK before the BYE. The line went down most places, even in the face of lots of Baltimore action.

Tennessee -2 1/2 Philadelphia - The Eagles will miss DeSean Jackson more than might be expected here. The Titans can stop the run but are prone to getting beat in the passing game, and Kolb having to rely so much on Maclin as his #1 could be a problem. The Eagles have also built their record up against a crappy schedule and are getting a little too much credit here. The Titans have covered 17 of their last 22 as a home favorite of a field goal or less.

Leans:

Seattle -7

San Fran -3

Cincy +3 1/2

Cleveland +13

NCAA: Week 8

Big card, no writeups...

Wyoming +10 1/2 BYU

Indiana +13 1/2 Illinois

Texas A&M -13 1/2 Kansas

Texas -21 Iowa State

North Carolina +6 1/2 Miami

Michigan State -6 Northwestern

Auburn -5 1/2 LSU

NFL: Week 6

Houston -4 Kansas City - The Texans have lost two straight home games but, while the Chiefs are decidedly improved, they aren't quite to the level that you expect them to hang around with good teams on the road. The favorite has covered 3 straight in this series.

Texans/Chiefs UNDER 45 - The Chiefs have a good defense and a bad offense, except they can run the ball a bit. The Texans are 5th in the NFL against the run, probably putting Kansas City's ability to score on the incapable shoulder of Matt Cassel.

San Francisco -6 1/2 Oakland - Raiders coming off a big win and the 49ers in an absolute, must win or the season's over spot. San Fran is a little tougher than their record indicates, they could be a 3 win team just by getting a couple bounces. They'll play well today and get off the donut in the win column. The 49ers, though all of this losing, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Leans:

Denver +3 1/2

New England -2 1/2

Detroit +10

NCAA: Week 7

Texas A&M -3 1/2 Missouri - A&M did a solid job against the spread in Stillwater but couldn't avoid stepping on their own d*cks in giving that game away. They'll have an easier time in College Station. Mizzou has smacked around a weak schedule and hasn't been on the road, yet...so they come in a bit inflated here. The Tigers have only covered 4 of their last 14 Big 12 games, while the Aggies are 5-2-2 in their last 9 at home.

Arkansas +3 1/2 Auburn - The Hogs feel like the better team here to me. Auburn has one quality win and has skated by a couple mediocre teams by a field goal. Arkansas' one loss was an hard to stomach crater job against Alabama, but they shook that off last week with a workmanlike win over the A&M. They should play well today. The underdog has won 4 straight outright in the series (Arkansas is 3 of those), and Arky has covered 7 of their last 9 overall.

Michigan State -7 Illinois - Hidden in the fact that the Illini rolled in Happy Valley last week is that they really hadn't shown much in the way of being a good team leading into that. Michigan State is good, and continues to prove it, though I am at least a little bit weary of a rivalry hangover hear after Sparty took down Michigan. I'm going to say they're well-coached enough to come in focused and beat a team they should beat here. MSU is on a 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS run against Illinois.

Baylor -1 1/2 Colorado - Better team, road tested already, coming off a tough loss...I like the Bears here. Their offense is legit, and will be able to score against an okay Colorado defense, but when Colorado can't run the ball...their offense grinds to a halt. While not exactly elite, Baylor gives up under 4 yards per carry on the ground to at least be better than average at it.

Leans:

Iowa -3

Texas +10

Alabama -20 1/2

NFL: Week 3

San Francisco -2 1/2 Kansas City - On the one hand, a winning record for the Chiefs means Arrowhead will be loud. On the other hand, the 49ers are a good squad on the brink of 0-3 which will mean a spirited effort. The Chiefs are still searching for some points from their offense, which they're likely to need today. Vegas still slightly overvalues Arrowhead, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find a season where they were didn't have a losing record there ATS.

NCAA: Week 4

Georgia PK Mississippi State - The battle of the Bulldogs usually is a couple touchdown spread, but a falter UGa team and a slightly resurgent MSU squad has made these teams pretty even. Georgia is just the better team here. Both of these teams are better on the road, over the last 4 years MSU is just 8-14 at home while Georgia is a strong 15-10 when they venture outside the hedges.

South Carolina +3 Auburn - The Tigers have been blessed so far by winning two close ballgames, including pulling a rabbit out of the hat against Clemson...but they haven't played a defense like South Carolina's, yet. Auburn was a really good home team last year, going 5-2 ATS, but that broke a pretty long funk of home futility against the number (they'd covered just 8 of their last 21 at home before last season). They may be back to struggling there, failing to cover so far this season in their first two tries.

Texas -15 1/2 UCLA - The Bruins are a run oriented team that just happens to roll into Austin to face the number one rushing defense in the country. The Longhorn schedule has a little bit to do with that, with plenty of spread offenses on it, but there's no reason to think that isn't legit since they led the country last year in yards per carry allowed. UCLA has covered just 1 of their last 5 as a road dog.

UNLV -10 1/2 New Mexico - The Lobos are just that bad. UNLV has covered 2 straight in the series.

Leans:

Boston College +4 1/2

Temple +14

Alabama -7

Cincinnati +14

NFL: Week 2

Tennessee -5 1/2 Pittsburgh - Lost in the dust of how bad Oakland looked last week was the Titans are a good football team. I'd expect them to be favored by a field goal at home even if Big Ben was playing, and he's worth more than a field goal.

San Diego -7 Jacksonville - J'ville scored a nice cover last week, and the Chargers look to rebound after a monsoon game loss on Monday night in Kansas City. The Chargers offense feels too explosive here and, though it might have been weather related, their defense was pretty stout outside of just a couple of big plays.

NCAA: Week 3

My keyboard is working about as well as Turner Gill coaches, so...no writeups with week.

Georgia -1 1/2 Arkansas

Texas -3 Texas Tech

UConn -6 Temple

Georgia Tech +3 North Carolina

NFL: Week 1

Jacksonville -3 Denver - The Broncos are going to be bad, kids...really bad. Even a banged up Jags team has enough. J'ville was admittedly awful against the spread last year, but they have covered both recent meetings against Denver. And I think they almost have to be better, whereas the 8-8 Denver pulled out of their asses last year was about their max.

Carolina +7 NY Giants - The Giants don't strike me as the sort of team that should be the biggest favorite of the weekend over anybody. The Giants were just 2-6 against the number at home last year, while Carolina squeaked out a profitable 5-3 ATS in roadies.

Miami -3 Buffalo - If you believe that the Dolphins are a team that'll be a fringe playoff contender, they pretty much have to win this game. I say they play well and get it done. The Fish have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series.

Green Bay -3 Philadelphia - The Pack have a lot of firepower and, while I think the Eagles will be pretty good, breaking in a new QB makes this a tough spot. Green Bay was outstanding on the road last year, covering in 6 of their 8 roadies, including winning 5 of those outright. These teams haven't met since '07, a Packers win as a home dog.

San Francisco -3 Seattle - The 49ers are the best team in their division, and I'll need to see something out of the Seahawks before I get worried about that home crowd.

I'm laying a lot of points on the road, but hey...it's week 1.

NCAA Football: Week 2

Penn State +13 Alabama - The Nittany Lions return 7 starters from a defensive unit that was among the best in the country last year. They were also really good away from home last year, going 4-0 ATS in road games and earning a push as a favorite against LSU in their bowl game. Even if they struggle some on offense, 13 sounds like a lot of points.

Georgia Tech -13 1/2 Kansas - Kansas ran 4 special teams plays with only 10 men on the field, they were out of timeouts with 8 minutes left, and if you take out one nice 50+ yard end around, they averaged under 2 yards per carry. Two linemen starters have changed, the QB has been changed, and the panic button has apparently been pushed. Oh, when the Ramblin' Wreck have the ball, an undersized interior defensive line will be tasked with stopping the most intricate, varied, and successful option attack in college football.

Michigan +3 1/2 Notre Dame - I hate to overreact to week 1, but the Wolverines dismantled a pretty good UConn team last week. If they keep getting that sort of QB play, RichRod might actually get to keep his job. Notre Dame has covered 4 of the last 5 in South Bend, but the play here is that Michigan has turned the corner. Rodriguez had some great teams at West Virginia, after all, and it's just a matter of time before he figured it out at Michigan.

Leans:

Iowa State +14 Iowa - Paul Rhodes is doing a heck of a job in Ames.

Texas -27 1/2 Wyoming - Does UT's new focus on running it shorten games and make big numbers hard to cover?

Texas Tech -24 New Mexico - The Lobos are bad. Really bad. Wish they were on KU's schedule bad.

NCAA Football: Week 1

Texas -31 Rice - Texas has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series with all 5 of those covers being wins by 41 or more points. Rice is occasionally interesting when they have a good team, but they run the spread and make no attempt to shorten the game and the athlete difference is so big here that it'll get ugly. I think Texas will have a borderline great defense this year, which keeps me from being scared away by such a big number.

UConn +3 Michigan - The Huskies return an assortment of starters from the team that led all of college football in record against the number last year (at 10-2). They're also unlikely to be intimidated by the Big House, sporting a win at Notre Dame and a narrow loss at Cincinnati last season during a run that left them perfect against the spread away from home. UConn's 5 SU losses were by a combined 15 points, and they led in the 4th quarter in 4 of those games. Michigan should be improved, this play is more about how good I think UConn can be...think '06 Jayhawks or '07 Cincinnati as a team that was close right before putting it all together the next year. Darkhorse BCS bowl candidate here.

Oklahoma State -17 Washington State - WSU is bad until they prove otherwise. They didn't show any real flashes of improvement last year under 2nd year coach Paul Wulff. They do return a bunch of starters, while Okie State lost a ton, but this is another situation where the talent disparity is large. Gundy generally has his team playing well early, as the Cowboys have won 18 of their last 19 September games in Stillwater.

K-State -2 UCLA - The Cats got better as the year went along last season and were pretty tough in Manhattan. This roster having a year under their belt in Snyder's system will help, and their running game is good and will give a talented but inexperienced UCLA defense a stout test.

Leans:

Mizzou -12 Illinois - Gary Pinkel is 5-0 ATS against Illinois since taking over in Columbia.

Purdue +11 Notre Dame - Leading rusher for Boilers injured...scared me away.

NCAA Sweet 16

Duke -8 1/2 Purdue
Tennessee +4 1/2 Ohio State
Baylor -5 St Mary's

March Madness: Round 2 (Sunday)

My heart really wasn't into the research much today. After a 6-1 ATS day yesterday, you might want to be the other way on these...

Texas A&M -2 1/2 Purdue
Duke -6 1/2 California
Cornell +4 1/2 Wisconsin
Michigan State +1 1/2 Maryland

March Madness: Round 2 (Saturday)

K-State -4 1/2
Baylor -5
Murray State +5
Tennessee -8
Wake Forest +9 1/2
Northern Iowa +12
Washington -2

March Madness: Round 1

Thursday/Friday action....

UNLV -1
SDSU +3 1/2
Oakland +10 1/2
St Mary's +2
Florida State -1
Purdue -4
Texas A&M -3
Marquette -1 1/2
New Mexico State +13 1/2
Murray State +3

NCAA Hoops: 3/6

Notre Dame +7 1/2 Marquette
Missouri +3 Kansas
Louisville -1 Syracuse
Texas +3 Baylor
Wichita State -3 Illinois State
West Virginia +3 1/2 Villanova

NCAA Hoops: 3/3

St. Louis +3 Temple
Va Tech -8 NC State

NCAA Hoops: 2/23

Louisville -4 Georgetown
Florida -2 1/2 Tennessee
Illinois +2 1/2 Michigan
K-State -5 1/2 Texas Tech

NCAA Hoops: 2/13

Baylor -4 Missouri
Kentucky -10 Tennessee
Arkansas +6 Alabama
Oklahoma State -8 1/2 Oklahoma
Texas A&M +1 1/2 Texas Tech

Big Monday

Texas +2 Kansas - The talented, if often unfocused, Longhorns return home for a game they've circled on their calendar from the start of the season. Kansas stumbles in a bit after two lackluster performances against teams with a combined 3-14 record in conference. Texas arrives with their own struggles, losing 4 of their last 6, including a home loss in overtime against Baylor. All that said, this is the one facility in the conference that KU truly struggles at...dropping 3 straight and 4 of their last 5. Even the 2008 National Championship team managed to lose in Austin. Damion James provide a difficult matchup for anybody, but it'll be especially troublesome for KU...as they've come to rely on Marcus Morris for points and he'll draw the defensive assignment. Dexter Pittman has the size required to provide trouble for Cole Aldrich, and Texas has perimeter athleticism to run at Sherron Collins. The Jayhawks have been surviving on talent the last couple of games and can't tonight.

Super Bowl XLIV

New Orleans Saints +5 Indianapolis Colts
Reggie Wayne OVER 77.5 (+130)
Dallas Clark WILL score a TD
Fumbles Lost UNDER 1.5

NCAA Hoops: 1/30

No writeups...

Texas/Baylor OVER 151 1/2
West Virginia -6 1/2 Louisville
Kentucky -8 1/2 Vanderbilt
Kansas State +4 1/2 Kansas
Marquette +5 1/2 Connecticut

NFL: Conference Championship Sunday

Indianapolis / NY Jets UNDER 40 1/2 - The Jets led the NFL in total defense, passing defense, and rushing offense though the regular season. On the flip side, their offense is extremely one-dimensional, so points will be hard to come by on both sides today. The UNDER has paid 5 of the last 7 in games in Indy (with one of the losses coming against these Jets in a game the Colts didn't try in).

NY Jets +8 1/2 Indianapolis - Too many points. As the aforementioned stats indicate, the Jets have a great defense and an excellent running game that they'll commit to to try to shorten the game. The Colts have been sensational against the number in games where they've tried, covering 6 straight and 11 of the last 14. Those numbers, and the general public appeal of Peyton, have led this number to inflate (it should be under 7).

New Orleans -3 1/2 Minnesota - Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre.

NCAA Hoops: 1/19

Miami -6 1/2 Boston College - Miami returns home (where they are unbeaten) after back-to-back road losses in hopes of avenging an earlier season loss to BC. The Eagles are 10-8 but have lost 4 of their last 5 and haven't beaten a non-NAIA team since December, and they're 1-6 ATS in their last 7 posted games. Miami had covered 6 in a row before their current 2 game slide.

Wichita State -3 Northern Iowa - Unranked home favorite hosting a ranked visitor...traditionally a very high percentage play. The Shockers are coming off a tough one point loss on the road against Creighton, but they're perfect at home and will have a good crowd for a big game tonight. The home team has won and covered 3 of the last 4 in the series.

Alabama +3 Tennessee - The Vols have handled the the loss of players well to this point, but they haven't been in a road spot like this, yet. Alabama isn't a great team, but they're pretty good and are a bit undervalued here...as a result of a pretty tough schedule beating their record up.

What I Learned Today Watching Sports

The Saints can score, man...and old QBs are fragile in INT coverage.

The SEC protects its basketball crown jewel with officiating as badly as it does in football.

K-State is for real. This was an easy look-ahead spot for them with Texas coming up, and they gutted out a good road win.

Damion James still can't guard legit 4s...fortunately for him, there aren't that many.

A flawed team is going to be hoisting the trophy in Indy in April.

NFL: Divisional Playoffs

Has there ever been a divisional round with less possibility for weather?

New Orleans - 6 1/2 Arizona - Arizona's defense was awful at home last week. Now they go on the road to what will be the most hostile environment of the weekend. Saints roll.

Dallas +3 Minnesota - IT'S BRETT FAVRE TIME!!!!!! Fast Cowboys defense should keep Peterson relatively in check. The gunslinger will have to shine.

NY Jets +7 San Diego - The Chargers were 31st in the regular season in rushing offense, relying exclusive on the arm of Philip Rivers. The Jets led the NFL in passing and total defense AND lead the league in rushing on offense. Southern California won't exactly present cold, playoff weather...but old adages are old adages for a reason.