1. USC - Their 2nd beatdown of BYE told us as much as their 1st.
2. Oklahoma - Gets to pound a ranked team in Norman in improve their resume.
3. Florida - Winning like that in Knoxville, even when Tennessee sucks, is impressive.
4. Missouri - If they don't get better defensively, this season will end in disappointment.
5. Georgia - Joined a growing list of teams that can beat up on the PAC 10.
6. Texas - Just dismantled a not that bad Rice team.
7. LSU - Great win against Auburn and this is a team that will get better.
8. Wisconsin - A week to rest before they make us all money in Ann Arbor.
9. Wake Forest - Good defense. Soft (SOFT!) schedule. They're BCS bound.
10. Alabama - Might be a short stay, as they hit the road to play UGa Saturday.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Sunday Night Football
Dallas -3 Green Bay - The Packers resume is pretty thin at this point, as they've held off a Minnesota team that fired it's QB at home and went on the road to beat what's turning into a pretty terrible Lions team. So, when they're playing in primetime against a team that is legitimately good and only getting a field goal? Lay the points. If you need some history, Dallas won and covered the only recent matchup, a 10 point win in Dallas last year. Green Bay, rarely an underdog in home games, hasn't been great as the home dog...going 2-5 SU and 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 in that spot.
NFL: Week 3
Not a very appealing slate of games this week. Lots of numbers that seem awfully close to correct and 15 of 16 home teams are favored, so I'll go with a couple of those home favorites I like...
Atlanta -6 1/2 Kansas City - The Chiefs started the season terrible, and they've piled two injured quarterbacks and a loudmouth, overpaid, prima donna running back that's pissed off to the mix. The defense is still OK, but they're on the field for 45 minutes and every opponent drive starts on the 40. If I'm going to suffer through this terrible football, I'm at least going to make some money for it. Until further notice, always play against Kansas City if they're getting a touchdown or less on the road or if they're getting 4 or less at home. Vegas will eventually figure it out, but we've got to take advantage while we can.
Denver -5 1/2 New Orleans - Denver is the better team here and they're at home. They survived a great effort from San Diego last week in a heck of a ballgame (marred by a pretty bad call at the end) to go to 2-0. Lost in the hard-fought road loss that the Saints suffered last week was that they were outgained by 200 yards. This is the best team they've faced, they're away from home, and they've struggled the first two weeks with a couple of middling teams. This is a game that could turn into a semi-shootout, but the Broncos have more bullets. Denver is 4-1-1 in their last 6 at Mile High.
Tennessee -4 1/2 Houston - The Texans had last week off, but I doubt that will matter. The Titans roll in at 2-0 and shed their poor quarterback for their better one (officially a knee on the NFL injury report). The defense is just too good, though. The Tennessee unit was 5th in total defense last season and have picked up right where they left off allowing just 202 yards per game in the first two weeks. They're doing a little bit of running back by committee, and both guys are good, so they've got the ability to wear defenses down running the football while forcing opposing offenses into 3 and outs at a higher than average rate. Houston has covered only 1 of their last 8 away from home.
Leans:
Washington -3 Arizona - Juice is high on the 'Skins side right now, so I'm gonna wait and see if it moves.
Atlanta -6 1/2 Kansas City - The Chiefs started the season terrible, and they've piled two injured quarterbacks and a loudmouth, overpaid, prima donna running back that's pissed off to the mix. The defense is still OK, but they're on the field for 45 minutes and every opponent drive starts on the 40. If I'm going to suffer through this terrible football, I'm at least going to make some money for it. Until further notice, always play against Kansas City if they're getting a touchdown or less on the road or if they're getting 4 or less at home. Vegas will eventually figure it out, but we've got to take advantage while we can.
Denver -5 1/2 New Orleans - Denver is the better team here and they're at home. They survived a great effort from San Diego last week in a heck of a ballgame (marred by a pretty bad call at the end) to go to 2-0. Lost in the hard-fought road loss that the Saints suffered last week was that they were outgained by 200 yards. This is the best team they've faced, they're away from home, and they've struggled the first two weeks with a couple of middling teams. This is a game that could turn into a semi-shootout, but the Broncos have more bullets. Denver is 4-1-1 in their last 6 at Mile High.
Tennessee -4 1/2 Houston - The Texans had last week off, but I doubt that will matter. The Titans roll in at 2-0 and shed their poor quarterback for their better one (officially a knee on the NFL injury report). The defense is just too good, though. The Tennessee unit was 5th in total defense last season and have picked up right where they left off allowing just 202 yards per game in the first two weeks. They're doing a little bit of running back by committee, and both guys are good, so they've got the ability to wear defenses down running the football while forcing opposing offenses into 3 and outs at a higher than average rate. Houston has covered only 1 of their last 8 away from home.
Leans:
Washington -3 Arizona - Juice is high on the 'Skins side right now, so I'm gonna wait and see if it moves.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
NCAA Football: Week 4
Tulsa -10 New Mexico - Tulsa's home opener after opening with a couple of easy road wins (and covers) as a double digit favorite. New Mexico is 1-2 SU and ATS and getting a bit too much respect for their win last week. The Golden Hurricane were off last week and have 2 weeks to prepare. The Lobos are an improving program, won a bowl game, and enjoyed a 9 win season last year. But, they're just not to the point yet where you they're likely to hang with a good team, on the road, with an offense as explosive as Tulsa's.
Georgia Tech -7 1/2 Mississippi State - MSU is a bad football team with a very, very bad offense. They only crossed the 50 once last week, and that was on a "drive" that started on their own 46 before going 9 yards and being turned over on downs as they grinded out 116 yards of total offense. Auburn missed 2 field goals and turned it over 3 times to allow the Bulldogs a miracle cover. The sledding won't be as easy today. Georgia Tech suffered a close, tough road loss to Virginia Tech last week while outgaining the Hokies by 140 yards.
Georgia Tech -7 1/2 Mississippi State - MSU is a bad football team with a very, very bad offense. They only crossed the 50 once last week, and that was on a "drive" that started on their own 46 before going 9 yards and being turned over on downs as they grinded out 116 yards of total offense. Auburn missed 2 field goals and turned it over 3 times to allow the Bulldogs a miracle cover. The sledding won't be as easy today. Georgia Tech suffered a close, tough road loss to Virginia Tech last week while outgaining the Hokies by 140 yards.
Friday, September 19, 2008
NCAA Football: Week 4
Leans for tomorrow's ball games...
Georgia Tech -7 1/2
Middle Tennessee +6
Auburn +3
Tulsa -10
Eastern Michigan +21
Florida -7 1/2
San Jose State +8
Look for a couple of these to turn into plays for a relatively big card tomorrow.
Georgia Tech -7 1/2
Middle Tennessee +6
Auburn +3
Tulsa -10
Eastern Michigan +21
Florida -7 1/2
San Jose State +8
Look for a couple of these to turn into plays for a relatively big card tomorrow.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
NCAA Football: Week 4
Michigan State -8 1/2 Notre Dame – Michigan State returned to a bowl game last year to reverse the trend of 3 straight losing seasons. They've been Golden Domer killers for the last decade or so, going 9-2 against the number in the last 11 matchups. Lost in the misery of Notre Dame's beatdown of 6-turnover Michigan last week (and my losing bet) was that the Wolverines outgained the Irish by almost 130 yards, and Notre Dame's offense really wasn't able to run or pass the ball reliably. Now that offense goes on the road against a team that can legitimately score and won't give them a defensive score and two other drives that start inside the 20...Sparty has turned it over just 4 times in their opening 3 games, and were 18th best in the country last year at protecting the football.
Akron -10 Army – Army is among the worst teams in D1 football. They've only covered 1 of their last 8 and most of those non-covers have been by multiple scores. Since Syracuse isn't on the board this week, we're left with Army as our “play against this team until they cover one” team. Akron won and covered this matchup last year, and Army lost their 3 best receivers on that team. Akron failed to cover last week behind the strength of 5 turnovers (after turning it over just twice in their first 2 games). The piss-poor weather has moved out, so expect the Zips to get back to hanging onto the football, and score a comfortable victory over the Black Knights.
Wake Forest +5 Florida State – The Seminoles probably deserve a round of applause as this week they finally play a D1 team after opening with Western Carolina and Chattanooga. FSU destroyed both of those teams, but I'm still not ready to anoint them the Florida State teams of old. Wake has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series and won the last two outright. They've also covered 4 of their last 5 road games. Meanwhile the Seminoles were 3-7-2 against the number last year, including 1-3-2 at home.
Fresno State -7 Toledo – Fresno State is coming off a frustrating home loss to Wisconsin in a game where they outgained the Badgers but gave points away to suffer a narrow defeat and should come into this game pissed off. Toledo rolls in getting too much respect after pounding Eastern Michigan last week. They return only 3 starters on offense, struggled in week 1 against Arizona, and will find the sledding tough against Fresno's front 7. Toledo's traditional home field advantage has crumbled the last two years, as they've gone 5-7 in back-to-back seasons and slipped from their perch as MAC darlings.
Missouri -32 1/2 Buffalo – The Tigers have been a covering machine dating back to the beginning of last season. They finished the 2007 season 11-2 SU and 10-3 against the number. They've picked up right where they left off this year, covering both of their listed games so far. This is a team you've got to play until they cool off, and large numbers aren't too big of a problem because Gary Pinkel doesn't mind doing things like faking a field goal with a 4 touchdown lead. Buffalo has some reasonable talent on offense, and may even score a little bit in this game...but I don't see any way they hold Mizzou under half a hundred.
Akron -10 Army – Army is among the worst teams in D1 football. They've only covered 1 of their last 8 and most of those non-covers have been by multiple scores. Since Syracuse isn't on the board this week, we're left with Army as our “play against this team until they cover one” team. Akron won and covered this matchup last year, and Army lost their 3 best receivers on that team. Akron failed to cover last week behind the strength of 5 turnovers (after turning it over just twice in their first 2 games). The piss-poor weather has moved out, so expect the Zips to get back to hanging onto the football, and score a comfortable victory over the Black Knights.
Wake Forest +5 Florida State – The Seminoles probably deserve a round of applause as this week they finally play a D1 team after opening with Western Carolina and Chattanooga. FSU destroyed both of those teams, but I'm still not ready to anoint them the Florida State teams of old. Wake has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series and won the last two outright. They've also covered 4 of their last 5 road games. Meanwhile the Seminoles were 3-7-2 against the number last year, including 1-3-2 at home.
Fresno State -7 Toledo – Fresno State is coming off a frustrating home loss to Wisconsin in a game where they outgained the Badgers but gave points away to suffer a narrow defeat and should come into this game pissed off. Toledo rolls in getting too much respect after pounding Eastern Michigan last week. They return only 3 starters on offense, struggled in week 1 against Arizona, and will find the sledding tough against Fresno's front 7. Toledo's traditional home field advantage has crumbled the last two years, as they've gone 5-7 in back-to-back seasons and slipped from their perch as MAC darlings.
Missouri -32 1/2 Buffalo – The Tigers have been a covering machine dating back to the beginning of last season. They finished the 2007 season 11-2 SU and 10-3 against the number. They've picked up right where they left off this year, covering both of their listed games so far. This is a team you've got to play until they cool off, and large numbers aren't too big of a problem because Gary Pinkel doesn't mind doing things like faking a field goal with a 4 touchdown lead. Buffalo has some reasonable talent on offense, and may even score a little bit in this game...but I don't see any way they hold Mizzou under half a hundred.
NCAA Power Rankings
1. USC - Great team, soft schedule, probably booking rooms in Miami.
2. Oklahoma - Another dominating win. Lost DeMarcus Granger for the year.
3. Florida - Tons of speed and the most favorable schedule of the SEC contenders.
4. Missouri - Possibly the best offense in the country.
5. Georgia - Lack of explosiveness on offense is going to catch up with them. Soon.
6. Texas - Still a couple weeks away from find out how good they are.
7. LSU - Finally get to see their offense play somebody on Saturday.
8. Wisconsin - Good team, Bad conference. Their 3 toughest games are at home.
9. East Carolina - Obvious let-down game but they survived.
10. Auburn - The defense is outstanding, but we need to know if they can score.
2. Oklahoma - Another dominating win. Lost DeMarcus Granger for the year.
3. Florida - Tons of speed and the most favorable schedule of the SEC contenders.
4. Missouri - Possibly the best offense in the country.
5. Georgia - Lack of explosiveness on offense is going to catch up with them. Soon.
6. Texas - Still a couple weeks away from find out how good they are.
7. LSU - Finally get to see their offense play somebody on Saturday.
8. Wisconsin - Good team, Bad conference. Their 3 toughest games are at home.
9. East Carolina - Obvious let-down game but they survived.
10. Auburn - The defense is outstanding, but we need to know if they can score.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Monday Night Football
Dallas -6 1/2 Philadelphia - The Eagles probably getting a little too much respect in this spot...as they rolled last week, but it was a terrible Rams squad that they beat up on. In Philly. The Cowboys are legitimately good this year, better than last year, even. Don't call me Pacman Jones improves the secondary, while making Marion Barber the feature back makes the offense better. Romo and the offense were flat out terrible in the Dallas matchup last year after rolling in Philly, and they'll be looking to make amends in this one. Close game early, Dallas just ultimately has too much on both sides of the ball.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
NFL: Week 2 Continued
Washington PK New Orleans - Too close to kickoff for any sort of writeup. Good Luck today.
NFL: Week 2
Carolina -3 Chicago - The Panthers spent the offseason getting healthy and are no longer running David Carr or Vinny Testaverde out there at QB. This team much more closely resembles the one that went to the NFC championship game 2 years ago. The Bears are getting propped up here by the nice win in Indy, but they don't have the benefit of a QB that hadn't practiced all preseason this week and they won't find the gaping holes for the running game that the Colts' defense gave them. This is the Bears second straight road game, a historically tough spot in the NFL, as the home team enjoyed a 39-29 record in that situation last season. Carolina has covered 5 of their last 6 overall and 3 straight at home.
San Diego +1 Denver - Betting against the public here. The Chargers opened as a 3 point favorite but money has poured in on Denver after their primetime humiliation of the Raiders. The Raiders probably aren't as bad as they looked last Sunday and the Broncos not as good. The opening line was about right, I think...so this is a value play. San Diego has owned Denver, and the whole division actually, lately. The Chargers are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Broncos and have covered 7 of their last 8 against the AFC West. The Chargers had one home loss last year...the following week they went to Denver as a 1 1/2 point favorite and won 41-3.
Minnesota +1 1/2 Indianapolis - Two teams coming off extremely disappointing performances in week 1. Indy scratched together a mediocre run defense last year but the Bears made them look like 2006's defense, which ranked dead last in the NFL before miraculously coming together for the Super Bowl run. The Colts will still end up being a good team, but the defense has question marks, Peyton still has less that 10 practices under his belt, and they play a tough Viking team today that will be able to run the football.
NY Giants -8 1/2 St. Louis - I don't even want to play this game, but it's just not enough points. The Giants were a considerably better road team than they were at home last year, going 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the number. On the other hand, the Rams were 1-7 at home and lost those games by an average of 9 points. Against what you might loosely define as a good team, they were 0-3 SU, ATS and lost by an average of 2 touchdowns. I'm not really in love with the Giants here as much as I'm convinced that the Rams are really, really bad.
Tampa Bay -7 Atlanta - I'm still not convinced on Atlanta. They looked good offensively last week, and that's holding this number down, but they were playing at home against the team that ranked last in the NFL in total defense last year. Today, they take their rookie QB on the road to play the defense that finished 2007 ranked 2nd in total defense and as the best in the league against the pass. So, the road will be much tougher sledding today. The Bucs were 6-2 at home (SU and ATS) last year and were 6-3 ATS overall as a favorite.
Leans...
Buffalo +4 1/2
San Francisco +6 1/2
Miami +6 1/2
San Fran and Miami would have both been plays at 7 or higher. Neither one of my books has it that high, but keep an eye out. The 49ers are +7 lots of places and the Fish are +7 one or two places. I'll play either one of those if they move to 7 somewhere I can bet.
San Diego +1 Denver - Betting against the public here. The Chargers opened as a 3 point favorite but money has poured in on Denver after their primetime humiliation of the Raiders. The Raiders probably aren't as bad as they looked last Sunday and the Broncos not as good. The opening line was about right, I think...so this is a value play. San Diego has owned Denver, and the whole division actually, lately. The Chargers are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Broncos and have covered 7 of their last 8 against the AFC West. The Chargers had one home loss last year...the following week they went to Denver as a 1 1/2 point favorite and won 41-3.
Minnesota +1 1/2 Indianapolis - Two teams coming off extremely disappointing performances in week 1. Indy scratched together a mediocre run defense last year but the Bears made them look like 2006's defense, which ranked dead last in the NFL before miraculously coming together for the Super Bowl run. The Colts will still end up being a good team, but the defense has question marks, Peyton still has less that 10 practices under his belt, and they play a tough Viking team today that will be able to run the football.
NY Giants -8 1/2 St. Louis - I don't even want to play this game, but it's just not enough points. The Giants were a considerably better road team than they were at home last year, going 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the number. On the other hand, the Rams were 1-7 at home and lost those games by an average of 9 points. Against what you might loosely define as a good team, they were 0-3 SU, ATS and lost by an average of 2 touchdowns. I'm not really in love with the Giants here as much as I'm convinced that the Rams are really, really bad.
Tampa Bay -7 Atlanta - I'm still not convinced on Atlanta. They looked good offensively last week, and that's holding this number down, but they were playing at home against the team that ranked last in the NFL in total defense last year. Today, they take their rookie QB on the road to play the defense that finished 2007 ranked 2nd in total defense and as the best in the league against the pass. So, the road will be much tougher sledding today. The Bucs were 6-2 at home (SU and ATS) last year and were 6-3 ATS overall as a favorite.
Leans...
Buffalo +4 1/2
San Francisco +6 1/2
Miami +6 1/2
San Fran and Miami would have both been plays at 7 or higher. Neither one of my books has it that high, but keep an eye out. The 49ers are +7 lots of places and the Fish are +7 one or two places. I'll play either one of those if they move to 7 somewhere I can bet.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
College Football: Week 3
Adding...
Oklahoma -21 Washington - Oklahoma toyed with Cincinnati last week before stepping on the gas and looking like they might be the best team in the country. Both the offensive and defensive units have a ton of talent and Stoops has them playing with purpose. They're playing in a cushy road spot against a Huskie team that has lost 9 of their last 11 at home. Their home games were a bit of a mixed bag last year...3-4 ATS, 2-5 SU, they played USC tough but lost to a bad Washington State team and got run over by Oregon. They won't have enough to hang with the Sooners today.
Arkansas State -2 1/2 Southern Miss - The Indians return a bunch off a team that was 5-1 SU at home last year. They opened this season with an ATS and SU win over Texas A&M before hanging 83 on Texas Southern last week. Southern Miss was a talented but underachieving team last year, and it seems like they're not quite ready to shed that label, yet. They rallied late for a backdoor cover against Auburn last week, but that game wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate.
Oklahoma -21 Washington - Oklahoma toyed with Cincinnati last week before stepping on the gas and looking like they might be the best team in the country. Both the offensive and defensive units have a ton of talent and Stoops has them playing with purpose. They're playing in a cushy road spot against a Huskie team that has lost 9 of their last 11 at home. Their home games were a bit of a mixed bag last year...3-4 ATS, 2-5 SU, they played USC tough but lost to a bad Washington State team and got run over by Oregon. They won't have enough to hang with the Sooners today.
Arkansas State -2 1/2 Southern Miss - The Indians return a bunch off a team that was 5-1 SU at home last year. They opened this season with an ATS and SU win over Texas A&M before hanging 83 on Texas Southern last week. Southern Miss was a talented but underachieving team last year, and it seems like they're not quite ready to shed that label, yet. They rallied late for a backdoor cover against Auburn last week, but that game wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
College Football: Week 3
Fresno State +2 Wisconsin - The home opener for the Bulldogs after they opened with an easy win at Rutgers. The Badgers hit the road, where they've been a different team, after a couple of home gimmes. Wisconsin was 0-5 ATS on the road last year and they've gone 3-6-1 against the number in roadies over the last 2 years. Fresno has been a predictable covering machine, paying their bettors in 7 of their last 10 and winning 7 of their last 8 home games SU. Plus, Wisconsin plays in the Big Ten, so there's a pretty good chance that Fresno State is the better team.
Michigan -2 Notre Dame - The Notre Dame offense is still absolutely terrible. I expected some improvement from the unit that was 119th (dead last) in college football last year but didn't see any as they sputtered along against a bad, bad San Diego State team. The Irish have been a non-covering machine (which I ignored last week, apparently), going 3-11 ATS in their last 14 at home. The Wolverines are in game 3 of the Rich Rogriguez era and have some of their own problems to address, but they're a lot closer to a functional football team than the Golden Domers.
Kansas / South Florida UNDER 48 1/2 - These two teams return a combined 16 starters on their defenses from units that ranked 12th (Kansas) and 28th (South Florida) in the country last year. This year's Kansas defense has given up 3 points in two games and while South Florida appeared to struggle last week with Central Florida, the defense played well...only giving up 226 yards and 12 first downs. Both teams ranked in the top 20 in turnover margin last year, Kansas by not giving many and taking some and South Florida by giving a bunch and taking more.
Akron +7 Ball State - Both of these teams feature offenses that use a pretty balanced attack to move the ball down the field and both teams are pretty good at it. Any time you have a game that could break out into a "who has the ball last?" track meet, getting a touchdown with the home team is a value play. Akron's defense has arguably shown a little more...as they haven't given up much against the pass. The flip side of that is that Wisconsin beat them by running them over, so they didn't need to pass, and Syracuse just isn't very good.
Leans:
Oklahoma -21 Washington
Arkansas State -2 1/2 Southern Miss
USC -11 1/2 Ohio State
USC / Ohio State UNDER 44 1/2
Michigan -2 Notre Dame - The Notre Dame offense is still absolutely terrible. I expected some improvement from the unit that was 119th (dead last) in college football last year but didn't see any as they sputtered along against a bad, bad San Diego State team. The Irish have been a non-covering machine (which I ignored last week, apparently), going 3-11 ATS in their last 14 at home. The Wolverines are in game 3 of the Rich Rogriguez era and have some of their own problems to address, but they're a lot closer to a functional football team than the Golden Domers.
Kansas / South Florida UNDER 48 1/2 - These two teams return a combined 16 starters on their defenses from units that ranked 12th (Kansas) and 28th (South Florida) in the country last year. This year's Kansas defense has given up 3 points in two games and while South Florida appeared to struggle last week with Central Florida, the defense played well...only giving up 226 yards and 12 first downs. Both teams ranked in the top 20 in turnover margin last year, Kansas by not giving many and taking some and South Florida by giving a bunch and taking more.
Akron +7 Ball State - Both of these teams feature offenses that use a pretty balanced attack to move the ball down the field and both teams are pretty good at it. Any time you have a game that could break out into a "who has the ball last?" track meet, getting a touchdown with the home team is a value play. Akron's defense has arguably shown a little more...as they haven't given up much against the pass. The flip side of that is that Wisconsin beat them by running them over, so they didn't need to pass, and Syracuse just isn't very good.
Leans:
Oklahoma -21 Washington
Arkansas State -2 1/2 Southern Miss
USC -11 1/2 Ohio State
USC / Ohio State UNDER 44 1/2
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
NCAA Power Rankings
1. USC - Two weeks to prepare for Ohio State and is a double digit home favorite.
2. Oklahoma - Can humiliate DI-A teams, too. Cincinnati isn't that bad.
3. Georgia - Manhandled Central Michigan...Stafford even looked decent.
4. Florida - Miami's defense gave them some trouble.
5. Missouri - Didn't learn anything by watching them boat-race a I-AA school.
6. Texas - Shaky start against UTEP but restored order quickly.
7. LSU - DNP, Hurricane.
8. East Carolina - Most impressive pair of wins in the country at this point.
9. Auburn - Took them 102 minutes of football to yield their first points of the season.
10. Ohio State - Probably shouldn't be this high and won't be much longer.
2. Oklahoma - Can humiliate DI-A teams, too. Cincinnati isn't that bad.
3. Georgia - Manhandled Central Michigan...Stafford even looked decent.
4. Florida - Miami's defense gave them some trouble.
5. Missouri - Didn't learn anything by watching them boat-race a I-AA school.
6. Texas - Shaky start against UTEP but restored order quickly.
7. LSU - DNP, Hurricane.
8. East Carolina - Most impressive pair of wins in the country at this point.
9. Auburn - Took them 102 minutes of football to yield their first points of the season.
10. Ohio State - Probably shouldn't be this high and won't be much longer.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
NFL: Week 1
Jacksonville -3 Tennessee - Best number on the board. The Jags qualify in my NFL strategy of always laying 3 points or less with the obviously better team. When a team is obviously better and just a field goal favorite, they're usually on the road and this game is no exception. Not to worry, the Jags were 6-2 against the number away from home last year, with 1 of those ATS losses being in week 17 while they were resting starters for the playoffs. More reasons to feel good, the Titans were just 3-5 against the number at home last year and have failed to cover their last 3 as an underdog. The Jags have covered 6 straight as a favorite.
NY Jets -3 Miami - Both of these teams were pretty terrible last year. In the offseason, the Jets added Brett Favre (maybe you heard about it...ESPN was pretty quiet on the matter) and Miami added Ricky Williams and a dime bag. The Jets have owned this series lately, as they are 8-0-1 ATS in the last 9 and they've covered 9 of the last 10 in Miami.
Detroit -3 Atlanta - Yeah, so I'm taking my 3rd road favorite. It's like a 12 year old girl is writing this blog and picking based on how pretty the uniforms are. But hey, it's week 1...weird stuff gets everybody. Detroit was a pretty up and down team last year, but they were relatively reliable as a favorite...covering 3 out of 4. The Falcons were pretty predictable as a home dog last year, putting up just a 2-5 mark against the number in that situation. Oh, yeah...and the Lions are better.
NY Jets -3 Miami - Both of these teams were pretty terrible last year. In the offseason, the Jets added Brett Favre (maybe you heard about it...ESPN was pretty quiet on the matter) and Miami added Ricky Williams and a dime bag. The Jets have owned this series lately, as they are 8-0-1 ATS in the last 9 and they've covered 9 of the last 10 in Miami.
Detroit -3 Atlanta - Yeah, so I'm taking my 3rd road favorite. It's like a 12 year old girl is writing this blog and picking based on how pretty the uniforms are. But hey, it's week 1...weird stuff gets everybody. Detroit was a pretty up and down team last year, but they were relatively reliable as a favorite...covering 3 out of 4. The Falcons were pretty predictable as a home dog last year, putting up just a 2-5 mark against the number in that situation. Oh, yeah...and the Lions are better.
NCAA Week 2...Continued
Oklahoma -21 1/2 Cincinnati - Both of these teams played lower division schools last week and rolled, so we really don't know too much about either one of them. We do know that Cincy is replacing their QB and he looked good last week, but OU in Norman isn't exactly Eastern Kentucky. OU led by 50 at halftime last week and ended up scoring point (57) than they gave up yards (36). The Sooners were 5-2 against the number as a home favorite last season.
Kansas -20 1/2 Louisiana Tech - This line should be in the 24 or 25 range but is suffering from a little (over)reaction to the games from last week. Louisiana Tech covered the 7 1/2 against Mississippi State but didn't look good. They pretty much couldn't run the ball at all, it took them 41 pass attempts to rack up 161 yards in the passing game, and they were outgained overall by 80 yards. The Bulldogs survived by benefitting from 5 turnovers and their 2 touchdown drives that TOTALED 21 yards. The Jayhawks were 4th in the country last year protecting the football...only turning it over 14 times in 13 games. No short fields, an offense that struggled against MSU, a stout Kansas defense that returns 9 starters from a top 10 unit, and KU getting their legs under them offensively should mean an easy Jayhawk victory.
More Leans...
Tulsa / North Texas OVER 66
Middle Tennessee State +13 Maryland
Auburn -17 1/2 Southern Miss
Texas -26 UTEP
Kansas -20 1/2 Louisiana Tech - This line should be in the 24 or 25 range but is suffering from a little (over)reaction to the games from last week. Louisiana Tech covered the 7 1/2 against Mississippi State but didn't look good. They pretty much couldn't run the ball at all, it took them 41 pass attempts to rack up 161 yards in the passing game, and they were outgained overall by 80 yards. The Bulldogs survived by benefitting from 5 turnovers and their 2 touchdown drives that TOTALED 21 yards. The Jayhawks were 4th in the country last year protecting the football...only turning it over 14 times in 13 games. No short fields, an offense that struggled against MSU, a stout Kansas defense that returns 9 starters from a top 10 unit, and KU getting their legs under them offensively should mean an easy Jayhawk victory.
More Leans...
Tulsa / North Texas OVER 66
Middle Tennessee State +13 Maryland
Auburn -17 1/2 Southern Miss
Texas -26 UTEP
Friday, September 5, 2008
NCAA Football: Week 2
Northwestern -6 1/2 Duke - Best number on the board. This line has been held down nicely by the fact that Duke sprung the upset last year in Chicago. But that game was a little bit fluky, and about as misleading as outcomes can be. The Wildcats outgained Duke by almost 200 yards, lost the turnover battle, and had 3 empty trips inside the Duke 10. Last week, breaking in 3 new offensive linemen, Northwestern started slow before getting their offense in a groove (and winning this blog some money). Duke played FCS James Madison, a team that doesn't even pretend they want to throw the ball (11 attempts last week), and gave up 5.1 yards per carry on the ground. Duke will have a lot of trouble with Northwestern's balanced, improving attack. Northwestern is 4-2 against the number in their last 6 against Duke and covered in their only attempt last year as a road favorite. Duke was 1-4 ATS and 0-5 straight up and home last season.
Notre Dame -21 1/2 San Diego State - Neither one of these teams were very good last year, but the Irish return pretty much everybody and add an inexplicably good recruiting class. There is pretty much no way they're not vastly improved, and they may even up being a pretty decent team. San Diego State loses a ton, including a 3000 yard QB that was also their leading rusher and accounted for over 75% of the team's total offense.
Akron +4 1/2 Syracuse - Even I underestimated how badly Greg Robinson sucks last week, so this is a team to keep betting against until they figure it out. The Orangemen were a very impressive 2-5 ATS, 1-6 SU in the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome last season, and they struggled mightily against Northwestern's defense last week. Akron's defense might be better. They were pushed around and simply out-manned against a good Wisconsin team that ran up 404 rushing yards against them last week. Syracuse doesn't provide nearly as much of a threat and will have no choice but to have Akron hang around in this one.
Leans:
Kansas -20 1/2 Louisiana Tech
Central Michigan +24 Georgia
Bowling Green -6 Minnesota
Oklahoma -21 1/2 Cincinnati
More to come....
Notre Dame -21 1/2 San Diego State - Neither one of these teams were very good last year, but the Irish return pretty much everybody and add an inexplicably good recruiting class. There is pretty much no way they're not vastly improved, and they may even up being a pretty decent team. San Diego State loses a ton, including a 3000 yard QB that was also their leading rusher and accounted for over 75% of the team's total offense.
Akron +4 1/2 Syracuse - Even I underestimated how badly Greg Robinson sucks last week, so this is a team to keep betting against until they figure it out. The Orangemen were a very impressive 2-5 ATS, 1-6 SU in the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome last season, and they struggled mightily against Northwestern's defense last week. Akron's defense might be better. They were pushed around and simply out-manned against a good Wisconsin team that ran up 404 rushing yards against them last week. Syracuse doesn't provide nearly as much of a threat and will have no choice but to have Akron hang around in this one.
Leans:
Kansas -20 1/2 Louisiana Tech
Central Michigan +24 Georgia
Bowling Green -6 Minnesota
Oklahoma -21 1/2 Cincinnati
More to come....
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
NCAA Power Rankings
1. USC - Domination of Virginia in Charlottesville impressive. Will improve as Sanchez gains experience.
2. Georgia - Lots of talent. Pedestrian QB play and a brutal SEC schedule will be tough on the Bulldogs.
3. Oklahoma - 50-0 halftime lead tells us OU was considerably better than Chattanooga...but I think we knew that.
4. Ohio State - The Big 10 is pretty bad again, so they'll probably punch another ticket to a BCS Championship beatdown.
5. Florida - Maybe the most speed in the country and won't rely on Teabow as much this year.
6. Missouri - Offense in mid-season form, defense made Juice Williams look like Tom Brady.
7. Texas - Soundly manhandles a pretty decent team, immediately has more off-field problems.
8. LSU - Refused to let Appalachian State shock the world again. Lots of talent in Baton Rouge.
9. West Virginia - Won't miss Slaton much. Pat White and Noel Devine will provide plenty of firepower.
10. Kansas - Default number 10. Too many of the other big boys struggled.
The Big 12 and SEC are so far and away the best conferences that it's ridiculous. Both can make a semi-legitimate argument for 5 teams in the top 10.
2. Georgia - Lots of talent. Pedestrian QB play and a brutal SEC schedule will be tough on the Bulldogs.
3. Oklahoma - 50-0 halftime lead tells us OU was considerably better than Chattanooga...but I think we knew that.
4. Ohio State - The Big 10 is pretty bad again, so they'll probably punch another ticket to a BCS Championship beatdown.
5. Florida - Maybe the most speed in the country and won't rely on Teabow as much this year.
6. Missouri - Offense in mid-season form, defense made Juice Williams look like Tom Brady.
7. Texas - Soundly manhandles a pretty decent team, immediately has more off-field problems.
8. LSU - Refused to let Appalachian State shock the world again. Lots of talent in Baton Rouge.
9. West Virginia - Won't miss Slaton much. Pat White and Noel Devine will provide plenty of firepower.
10. Kansas - Default number 10. Too many of the other big boys struggled.
The Big 12 and SEC are so far and away the best conferences that it's ridiculous. Both can make a semi-legitimate argument for 5 teams in the top 10.
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