Monday, September 28, 2009
Monday Night Football
Carolina +9 Dallas - The Panthers have started slow this season after having everybody back from a 12-4 playoff team. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that they actually outgained the Falcons in Atlanta last week. Carolina has the two best offensive players in the game in Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams. Last week, the Cowboys struggled to handle the crappy Steven Smith, and they're unlikely to fair any better tonight. Add in the fact that Marion Barber isn't expected to play, putting a bit more pressure on Romo to perform, and it looks like the Cowboys are way overvalued in this spot. Just too many points. The Cowboys were 2-3 ATS as more than a touchdown favorite last year and lost two of the games outright. Carolina has won and covered 4 straight when they're spending their 2nd straight week on the road.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
NFL: Week 3
No writeups this week, as I don't have enough time. Here's the plays...
Tennessee +3 NY Jets - The Titans season is hanging in the balance and their defense is good enough to test Sanchez
Chicago -2 1/2 Seattle - Seattle a tough place to win but Cutler looked more comfortable last week.
Denver -1 1/2 Oakland - Oakland is bad enough to need points in just about ever game. Not getting enough here.
Philadelphia -7 1/2 Kansas City - Eagles can't have enough guys hurt to help the Chiefs here.
Cleveland +14 Baltimore - Lots of points...strictly a play because I had it capped at 10 1/2.
San Diego -5 1/2 Miami - I don't believe in Miami, and the Bolts are in a classic bounce-back spot.
Tennessee +3 NY Jets - The Titans season is hanging in the balance and their defense is good enough to test Sanchez
Chicago -2 1/2 Seattle - Seattle a tough place to win but Cutler looked more comfortable last week.
Denver -1 1/2 Oakland - Oakland is bad enough to need points in just about ever game. Not getting enough here.
Philadelphia -7 1/2 Kansas City - Eagles can't have enough guys hurt to help the Chiefs here.
Cleveland +14 Baltimore - Lots of points...strictly a play because I had it capped at 10 1/2.
San Diego -5 1/2 Miami - I don't believe in Miami, and the Bolts are in a classic bounce-back spot.
Friday, September 25, 2009
NCAA Football: Week 4
Buffalo +3 1/2 Temple - Wrong Team Favored. Both teams return 15 starters and this line is being affected by the fact that the Bulls needed a hail mary at the end of the game last year to get by the Owls. Lost in that is that Buffalo is 12-1 all-time against Temple, and this Temple team was bad enough to lose to FCS Villanova. Buffalo comes in having lost two straight, at home to Pitt and at Central Florida, while Temple comes in after having a covered against Penn State in a game that they drastically trailed in total yardage until moving it some in garbage time.
Florida State -14 South Florida - Matt Grothe will miss the rest of the season with an injury to his knee, and he's taken pretty much every Bull snap for the last 3+ years since winning the job early as a true freshman, including leading the team in passing and rushing for most of that time. They'll have trouble replacing him seamlessly. The Seminoles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 at home against non-conference opponents, and South Florida is 4-7 against the number in their last 11 away from home.
Utah -14 Louisville - The Utes in a bounce-back spot after their first loss since 2007 last week at Oregon. Utah is 0-3 ATS on the season, which will trend money away from them and make them a value play here. Louisville is in a bit of a letdown spot after a close, hard-fought, emotional loss to hated rival Kentucky last week. The Utes have covered 3 of the last 4 at home, has won their last 6 against the Big East, and is 3-0 against Louisville. The Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 away from home, covering in 3 of those game.
Minnesota PK Northwestern - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a bowl team, and I still think they'll ultimately be improved. They lost at home to Northwestern last year, which is why the Wildcats opened as a favorite, but they've improved more than Northwestern has. The Wildcats hold the head-to-head trend edge, but Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 away from home.
Leans:
Georgia / Arizona State UNDER 50 1/2
Georgia Tech -3 North Carolina
Purdue +7 Notre Dame
Middle Tennessee -6 North Texas
Florida International PK Toledo
Florida State -14 South Florida - Matt Grothe will miss the rest of the season with an injury to his knee, and he's taken pretty much every Bull snap for the last 3+ years since winning the job early as a true freshman, including leading the team in passing and rushing for most of that time. They'll have trouble replacing him seamlessly. The Seminoles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 at home against non-conference opponents, and South Florida is 4-7 against the number in their last 11 away from home.
Utah -14 Louisville - The Utes in a bounce-back spot after their first loss since 2007 last week at Oregon. Utah is 0-3 ATS on the season, which will trend money away from them and make them a value play here. Louisville is in a bit of a letdown spot after a close, hard-fought, emotional loss to hated rival Kentucky last week. The Utes have covered 3 of the last 4 at home, has won their last 6 against the Big East, and is 3-0 against Louisville. The Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 away from home, covering in 3 of those game.
Minnesota PK Northwestern - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a bowl team, and I still think they'll ultimately be improved. They lost at home to Northwestern last year, which is why the Wildcats opened as a favorite, but they've improved more than Northwestern has. The Wildcats hold the head-to-head trend edge, but Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 away from home.
Leans:
Georgia / Arizona State UNDER 50 1/2
Georgia Tech -3 North Carolina
Purdue +7 Notre Dame
Middle Tennessee -6 North Texas
Florida International PK Toledo
Sunday, September 20, 2009
NFL: Week 2
Oakland +3 Kansas City - The Raiders showed a bit of a pulse on Monday night against San Diego, so maybe this team won't be as bad as we thought. More importantly, the Chiefs put some non-traditional points on the board against Baltimore to stay in the game...which is whey they're getting the edge here. Home Field Advantage means nothing in this series, with the visitors winning 5 straight outright (the last 4 as a dog of a 3 or more) and the Raiders have covered their last 3 trips to Arrowhead.
Denver / Cleveland UNDER 38 1/2 - Both teams really labored to score in week 1, and I suspect it's because both offenses just aren't very good. Brady Quinn has never materialized as a QB you can count on to sustain drives, and he'll be facing a Denver defense that looked pretty solid in holding the Bengals to 7 points. Kyle Orton reminded us last week that he's certainly not Jay Cutler and that you don't choose a quarterback based on emotion. The UNDER is 4-2-1 in the last 7 games involving the Browns.
New England / NY Jets OVER 45 1/2 - The Jets offense showed signs of life last week in Houston, and he returns home to be supported by a raucous crowd in his first start at the Meadowlands. On Monday night, the Patriots showed that their defense will be a little bit suspect but that the offense can still get it going. This game could turn into a track meet...with the one question being is the Jets defense really as good as it looked in holding a good Houston team in check. I think it could be a good unit, but it can't play that well two weeks in a row. The OVER has paid in 7 of the last 8 Pats games and is 6-4-1 in the last 11 involving the Jets.
San Diego -3 Baltimore - The Chargers defense was 11th against the run last year and 31st against the pass, so it's a defense pretty well suited to give trouble to Joe Flacco and the Ravens' run-oriented attack. Baltimore played 5 teams with a rushing defense in the top dozen last year and averaged barely over 15 points in those games. LT is hurt, so (I can't believe I'm going to write this), Darren Sproles will get more touches and provide more explosiveness to the San Diego offense.
NY Giants +3 Dallas - There will be a lot of festivities around the regular season debut of the Jerryland, but I just can't see how Dallas is favored here. This is still a 9-7 team that plays tremendously inconsistent football and generally has lines skewed toward them (they were underdogs only 3 times last year in losing those 7 games). The Giants, on the other hand, generally you pretty consistent effort, were a 12-4 team last year, and generally play just as well away from home as they do in Jersey (6-2 ATS last year on the road). The Cowboys are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the NFC East. Either the big Dallas win last year is holding this number artificially or I'm falling for a Vegas trap. We'll see tonight.
Leans:
Jacksonville -3
Chicago +3
New Orleans -1
Tennessee -7
Denver / Cleveland UNDER 38 1/2 - Both teams really labored to score in week 1, and I suspect it's because both offenses just aren't very good. Brady Quinn has never materialized as a QB you can count on to sustain drives, and he'll be facing a Denver defense that looked pretty solid in holding the Bengals to 7 points. Kyle Orton reminded us last week that he's certainly not Jay Cutler and that you don't choose a quarterback based on emotion. The UNDER is 4-2-1 in the last 7 games involving the Browns.
New England / NY Jets OVER 45 1/2 - The Jets offense showed signs of life last week in Houston, and he returns home to be supported by a raucous crowd in his first start at the Meadowlands. On Monday night, the Patriots showed that their defense will be a little bit suspect but that the offense can still get it going. This game could turn into a track meet...with the one question being is the Jets defense really as good as it looked in holding a good Houston team in check. I think it could be a good unit, but it can't play that well two weeks in a row. The OVER has paid in 7 of the last 8 Pats games and is 6-4-1 in the last 11 involving the Jets.
San Diego -3 Baltimore - The Chargers defense was 11th against the run last year and 31st against the pass, so it's a defense pretty well suited to give trouble to Joe Flacco and the Ravens' run-oriented attack. Baltimore played 5 teams with a rushing defense in the top dozen last year and averaged barely over 15 points in those games. LT is hurt, so (I can't believe I'm going to write this), Darren Sproles will get more touches and provide more explosiveness to the San Diego offense.
NY Giants +3 Dallas - There will be a lot of festivities around the regular season debut of the Jerryland, but I just can't see how Dallas is favored here. This is still a 9-7 team that plays tremendously inconsistent football and generally has lines skewed toward them (they were underdogs only 3 times last year in losing those 7 games). The Giants, on the other hand, generally you pretty consistent effort, were a 12-4 team last year, and generally play just as well away from home as they do in Jersey (6-2 ATS last year on the road). The Cowboys are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the NFC East. Either the big Dallas win last year is holding this number artificially or I'm falling for a Vegas trap. We'll see tonight.
Leans:
Jacksonville -3
Chicago +3
New Orleans -1
Tennessee -7
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Open Letter to ESPN
Dear Bristol,
This week, I've seen Tim Teabow's "speech" from the press conference after the Ole Miss game last year multiple times on your network. If you're trying to make him look like a warrior, you're not. That footage is of a petulant child struggling with disappointment. He looks considerably more like the 12 year old you see with tears in his eyes after the Little League World Series than he does a Heisman winner, adult, and leader of a college football team. "No one will play harder than me, and I'll make sure these guys play hard, too" isn't leadership. You'd think Teabow was the first great player that has ever had to deal with a hard fought loss before. Being a member of your team made available for the postgame press conference, making a speech, and not taking any questions is bush league...it's not something to be celebrated.
Look, Teabow is a great player and by all accounts a great person. But that outburst last year was a long way from his best moment.
Respectfully,
Most College Football Fans Outside of Gainesville
This week, I've seen Tim Teabow's "speech" from the press conference after the Ole Miss game last year multiple times on your network. If you're trying to make him look like a warrior, you're not. That footage is of a petulant child struggling with disappointment. He looks considerably more like the 12 year old you see with tears in his eyes after the Little League World Series than he does a Heisman winner, adult, and leader of a college football team. "No one will play harder than me, and I'll make sure these guys play hard, too" isn't leadership. You'd think Teabow was the first great player that has ever had to deal with a hard fought loss before. Being a member of your team made available for the postgame press conference, making a speech, and not taking any questions is bush league...it's not something to be celebrated.
Look, Teabow is a great player and by all accounts a great person. But that outburst last year was a long way from his best moment.
Respectfully,
Most College Football Fans Outside of Gainesville
NCAA Football: Week 3
Akron -2 1/2 Indiana - Good spot for the Zips here. After taking their lumps in week 1 against a good Penn State team, they got healthy against an FCS opponent last week. Indiana looked to be improved against a questionable Western Michigan team after opening in a very shaky Thursday night win against their FCS cupcake. They feel a little overvalued here. Akron plays well against BCS teams, covering 4 straight and 6 of their last 8. Indiana still needs to prove it away from home, where they've dropped 6 of their last 7 against the number and 10 of their last 12 straight up.
Texas -18 1/2 Texas Tech - This number just doesn't feel right to me. The Horns return virtually everybody off a team that was favored by 3 in Lubbock last year (a number that was about right...despite the loss). So, swing it 6 points for the home/road switch and you're telling me that Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are worth single digits? I'm not buying the Red Raiders, yet. They'll have to do it against a good team and/or away from home first. They have a chance to do both here. The Horns have covered 4 of the last 5 between these two in Austin. Tech is 1-7 against the number in their last 8 road games against a ranked opponent (for full disclosure...the 1 was a total beatdown in Lawrence). In the two UT games during that stretch, Tech has surrendered 111 points.
Nebraska / Virginia Tech UNDER 51 - This total is being propped artificially high by the 35-30 final last year. That game included a special team's touchdown, a 5 yard drive following an interception, and a terrific passing performance by Joe Ganz, who's not walking through that door. the Nebraska game was the ONLY game VaTech played last year that would have gone over this total. This game should play out a little more traditionally than that contest and, just as we're looking for from Texas Tech, it'll be interesting to see how the Corn's offense looks away from home and against a good defense.
Michigan State +10 Notre Dame - I still don't think I believe in the Dame, and the betting world is overreacting to Sparty's loss last week against one of the better QBs in the country that the average fan couldn't pick out of a lineup. MSU is still a 9 win team that returned 15 starters. They're also 9-3 in this series (9-2-1 ATS) and the road team has won 7 of the last 8 straight up, including 5 straight covers for State in South Bend. Go Green...Go White.
UCLA -12 1/2 Kansas State - UCLA has been bet against heavily the first two weeks, with the line moving against them by 6 and 4 1/2 before they went on to cover both times. This week they're backed heavily against a team that (how do I put this delicately for my purple readers) has looked like...they might not...be making...a New Year's Day bowl this year. After Bill Snyder rallied the troops for a come-from-behind opening win against UMass, the Cats dropped a heartbreaker on the road to Louisiana Lafayette. UCLA is probably overvalued here, but I think it takes another couple weeks before Vegas adjusts to K-State's badness. It won't take that long for Bill Snyder to fire whoever decided to have him on the road two weeks in a row in the non-conference.
Leans:
Arizona +4 Iowa
Urban Meyer's Ego -62 Lane Kiffin's Mouth
Kansas -23 Duke
Tulsa +18 Oklahoma
Virginia / Southern Miss UNDER 46
Baylor -10 Connecticut
Texas -18 1/2 Texas Tech - This number just doesn't feel right to me. The Horns return virtually everybody off a team that was favored by 3 in Lubbock last year (a number that was about right...despite the loss). So, swing it 6 points for the home/road switch and you're telling me that Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are worth single digits? I'm not buying the Red Raiders, yet. They'll have to do it against a good team and/or away from home first. They have a chance to do both here. The Horns have covered 4 of the last 5 between these two in Austin. Tech is 1-7 against the number in their last 8 road games against a ranked opponent (for full disclosure...the 1 was a total beatdown in Lawrence). In the two UT games during that stretch, Tech has surrendered 111 points.
Nebraska / Virginia Tech UNDER 51 - This total is being propped artificially high by the 35-30 final last year. That game included a special team's touchdown, a 5 yard drive following an interception, and a terrific passing performance by Joe Ganz, who's not walking through that door. the Nebraska game was the ONLY game VaTech played last year that would have gone over this total. This game should play out a little more traditionally than that contest and, just as we're looking for from Texas Tech, it'll be interesting to see how the Corn's offense looks away from home and against a good defense.
Michigan State +10 Notre Dame - I still don't think I believe in the Dame, and the betting world is overreacting to Sparty's loss last week against one of the better QBs in the country that the average fan couldn't pick out of a lineup. MSU is still a 9 win team that returned 15 starters. They're also 9-3 in this series (9-2-1 ATS) and the road team has won 7 of the last 8 straight up, including 5 straight covers for State in South Bend. Go Green...Go White.
UCLA -12 1/2 Kansas State - UCLA has been bet against heavily the first two weeks, with the line moving against them by 6 and 4 1/2 before they went on to cover both times. This week they're backed heavily against a team that (how do I put this delicately for my purple readers) has looked like...they might not...be making...a New Year's Day bowl this year. After Bill Snyder rallied the troops for a come-from-behind opening win against UMass, the Cats dropped a heartbreaker on the road to Louisiana Lafayette. UCLA is probably overvalued here, but I think it takes another couple weeks before Vegas adjusts to K-State's badness. It won't take that long for Bill Snyder to fire whoever decided to have him on the road two weeks in a row in the non-conference.
Leans:
Arizona +4 Iowa
Urban Meyer's Ego -62 Lane Kiffin's Mouth
Kansas -23 Duke
Tulsa +18 Oklahoma
Virginia / Southern Miss UNDER 46
Baylor -10 Connecticut
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Thursday Night ACC
A close to kickoff play...
Georgia Tech +4 Miami - The Tech offense is hard to prepare for on a short week, Miami is getting a little too much love for beating a Florida State team that really looked bad in week 2. The Ramblin' Wreck have covered 4 straight in this series and 4 of their last 5 away from home.
Georgia Tech +4 Miami - The Tech offense is hard to prepare for on a short week, Miami is getting a little too much love for beating a Florida State team that really looked bad in week 2. The Ramblin' Wreck have covered 4 straight in this series and 4 of their last 5 away from home.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
NFL: Week 1
Houston -4 1/2 NY Jets - Matt Sanchez makes his career start against a defense that isn't great, but the Texans are a team with some offensive firepower, finishing last season 3rd in the league in total offense. Houston ended last season on a run where they covered 6 of their last 7, while the Jets stumbled home, dropping their last 5 ATS.
Jacksonville +7 Indianapolis - The Jags cratered last season under the weight of high expectations, but they've always been a tough matchup for the Colts, winning outright in Indy last year in week 3. The offense should be improved with a heavier mix of Maurice Jones-Drew, especially catching it out of the backfield.
Green Bay -4 Chicago - The Bears improved their offense over the summer, but their defense is getting old. The Packers could be the breakout team of 2009 with an experienced Aaron Rodgers running the show surrounded by plus weapons in Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 away from home.
Leans:
Cleveland +4 Minnesota
Tampa Bay +5 1/2 Dallas
Baltimore -12 1/2 Kansas City
Jacksonville +7 Indianapolis - The Jags cratered last season under the weight of high expectations, but they've always been a tough matchup for the Colts, winning outright in Indy last year in week 3. The offense should be improved with a heavier mix of Maurice Jones-Drew, especially catching it out of the backfield.
Green Bay -4 Chicago - The Bears improved their offense over the summer, but their defense is getting old. The Packers could be the breakout team of 2009 with an experienced Aaron Rodgers running the show surrounded by plus weapons in Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 away from home.
Leans:
Cleveland +4 Minnesota
Tampa Bay +5 1/2 Dallas
Baltimore -12 1/2 Kansas City
Friday, September 4, 2009
NCAA Kickoff Saturday
Illinois -6 1/2 Missouri - Illinois returns 8 starters on an offense that ended last season 19th in total offense. The Illini also, eventually, have to have a chip on their shoulder about how lopsided this series has been. This is the 5th time they've played each other to open the season in the last 8 season, and the Tigers have taken all 4 prior. Missouri doesn't overachieve much, having dropped 7 of their last 8 as an underdog.
Nevada +14 1/5 Notre Dame - Nevada returns 7 starters on each side of the ball from a team that lost a close game to Maryland last year in the Humanitarian Bowl. The Wolf Pack will hit Notre Dame with a balanced attack that was quietly 5th in the country in total offense. Notre Dame counters with more starters back (9 on O, 6 on D)...but off a team that wasn't as good. Neither unit was particularly impressive against a pretty easy schedule. In 2 games against teams that ended ranked, the Domers were outscored 61-10. Hard to see them settling in as a good football team in week 1. Notre Dame is 5-8 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, and Nevada has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.
Minnesota -7 Syracuse - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a team that won 7 games and qualified for the Insight Bowl, including most of the important pieces and the best player you've never heard of in wide receiver Eric Decker, who caught 84 balls last year for 1074 yards. Syracuse is best know for naming Duke's former point guard their starting QB. The Cuse has dropped 4 straight to the Big Ten against the number, and they've lost 6 of their last 7 home openers. On the flip side, Minnesota has covered 6 of their last 7 on the road.
Northern Illinois +16 1/2 Wisconsin - The thing that jumps out at you when you look at Northern Illinois is that they don't get blown out often. Last year it only happened once, against a good Ball State team. They put up a substantial fight in road games against Minnesota and Tennessee, which are teams that are in line with how good I expect Wisconsin to be this year. The Badgers entered last season ranked #13 and climbed into the top 10 before losing to Michigan and having their season spiral away into a 7-6 finish. This year's version might not even be as good as that one, as they are forced to replace PJ Hill and find some soltion to their QB problem. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a double digit favorite. The Huskies are 6-2-1 against the number in their last 9 against the Big Ten.
Leans:
Central Michigan +13 1/2
Wake Forest -2 1/2
Virginia Tech +6 1/2
Florida State -6
If you could bet on high school football:
Hutchison (KS) -up to a couple touchdowns Rockhurst (KC, MO)
Nevada +14 1/5 Notre Dame - Nevada returns 7 starters on each side of the ball from a team that lost a close game to Maryland last year in the Humanitarian Bowl. The Wolf Pack will hit Notre Dame with a balanced attack that was quietly 5th in the country in total offense. Notre Dame counters with more starters back (9 on O, 6 on D)...but off a team that wasn't as good. Neither unit was particularly impressive against a pretty easy schedule. In 2 games against teams that ended ranked, the Domers were outscored 61-10. Hard to see them settling in as a good football team in week 1. Notre Dame is 5-8 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, and Nevada has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.
Minnesota -7 Syracuse - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a team that won 7 games and qualified for the Insight Bowl, including most of the important pieces and the best player you've never heard of in wide receiver Eric Decker, who caught 84 balls last year for 1074 yards. Syracuse is best know for naming Duke's former point guard their starting QB. The Cuse has dropped 4 straight to the Big Ten against the number, and they've lost 6 of their last 7 home openers. On the flip side, Minnesota has covered 6 of their last 7 on the road.
Northern Illinois +16 1/2 Wisconsin - The thing that jumps out at you when you look at Northern Illinois is that they don't get blown out often. Last year it only happened once, against a good Ball State team. They put up a substantial fight in road games against Minnesota and Tennessee, which are teams that are in line with how good I expect Wisconsin to be this year. The Badgers entered last season ranked #13 and climbed into the top 10 before losing to Michigan and having their season spiral away into a 7-6 finish. This year's version might not even be as good as that one, as they are forced to replace PJ Hill and find some soltion to their QB problem. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a double digit favorite. The Huskies are 6-2-1 against the number in their last 9 against the Big Ten.
Leans:
Central Michigan +13 1/2
Wake Forest -2 1/2
Virginia Tech +6 1/2
Florida State -6
If you could bet on high school football:
Hutchison (KS) -up to a couple touchdowns Rockhurst (KC, MO)
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