San Diego State -16 New Mexico - The Lobos are tied for last in the nation with a 1-6 record ATS this season (0-7 overall), and the cover was a 20 point loss when they just happened to be getting 5 touchdowns. They've lost their 3 road games by an average of 26 points. The Aztecs meanwhile, have covered 4 straight games, 5 of their last 7 at home, and 4 of their last 5 as a home favorite. New Mexico has covered 7 of the last 8 in this series, including a 70-7 drubbing last year...the San Diego State gets to exercise some of those demons against a terrible team today.
Houston -6 1/2 Southern Miss - Outside of Houston's inexplicable loss to UTEP, in a week where they spent a lot of time answering BCS buster questions, they've been a covering machine. They're 5-1 against the number, they're 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home, and they're 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home in this series. The Golden Eagles are 1-2 ATS (0-3 SU) on the road for the season.
Michigan/Illinois OVER 54 - When Michigan has the ball, the 2nd ranked total offense in the Big Ten is going against the worst total defense in the conference, so the Wolverines will score. When Illinois has the ball, they're up against a below average defense, ranked 72nd nationally and allowing a generous 3.8 yards/carry on the ground. Both teams are minus on the year on turnovers, providing ample opportunity for a couple of short fields today.
Michigan -7 Illinois - As I said above, when Michigan has the ball...they're starting across the line of scrimmage at the worst defense in the conference. Michigan is #2 in the Big Ten offensively and #1 on the ground, the Illini counter with last and last. Illinois has a shot to score some points in this game, hence the bet on the over, but Michigan is likely to get more stops and to be able to make sure they come away with touchdowns when they get in the redzone. The Wolverines have covered 4 of the last 6 in this series and have won 6 of the last 7 outright. Illinois is just 1-5 ATS on the season and they've covered just 2 of their last 11 overall.
Colorado +3 1/2 Missouri - I'm not sure Gary Pinkel has the ability to right the ship with this bunch after the demoralizing loss they suffered against Nebraska with the game well in hand. I'm certainly not sure he can do it on the road against a team with a pretty feisty defense. And for as good as Missouri has been the last couple of years, they haven't exactly dominated the Buffaloes, as CU is 4-1 SU in their last 5 in Boulder in this series and have covered 6 of the last 9 against the Tigers overall.
Florida State -10 North Carolina State - The Seminoles aren't very good, but NC State is REALLY not very good...so much so that they have all of one win against an FBS team. They are coming off a BYE week, but since FSU played last Thursday and are at home today, they've had a little extended week to get ready.
Oklahoma -27 1/2 Kansas State - The Wildcats are 104th nationally in passing offense. Do you think they're going to run the ball against OU's defense? Me neither.
Leans:
Iowa State +6
Georgia +15
Nebraska -14
UCLA +9 1/2
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Saturday, October 24, 2009
NCAA Football: Week 8
Duke -4 Maryland - Duke has shows flashes of decent football, while Maryland has one Saturday outlier (win over Clemson) in a whole season of suck. The Blue Devils have lost 5 straight at home in this series, but this is just the sort of terrible Maryland team to exercise some demons against. The Terrapins have only covered 1 of their last 5 away from home and are 1-5 against the number this season. Duke has covered 3 of their last 4 as a home favorite, is also 3-1 ATS for this season, with the only loss came on a late TD at Kansas in a game where they were -2 in turnovers. Duke has quietly become a well-coached (if still sometimes outmanned) football team, and should pick up a solid win today.
Texas Tech -21 1/2 Texas A&M - Tech has finally got the offense going a bit with the new personnel and is coming off an impressive win in Lincoln. The Aggies are coming off one of the most embarassing, unprepared, and uninspired performances I've seen since, well...the Aggies bent over and took it from Oklahoma a few years back. Now they head to Lubbock, where they're hated a lot more than they do the hating, and they've failed to cover in their last 5 trips. The Red Raiders are dominating this series since the Big 12 was formed, going 11-3 ATS over that time.
Oklahoma State -9 1/2 Baylor - I'm going to need to see some life out of the post-Robert Griffin Baylor offense before I start giving them the sort of respect they're getting here. Okie State is in a slight look-ahead spot here, with Texas looming next weekend, but I think their effort has been consistent enough to not worry about that, especially against a team that doesn't have enough offense to match scores with them. Baylor has only beaten the Cowboys once in their last 13 tries and are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 in the series. Oklahoma State has covered 7 of their last 10 away from home, including 3 out of 4 when they're the favorite.
Leans:
Alabama -14
Louisville +18
Northwestern -5
Boston College +7 1/2
Air Force +9 1/2
Texas Tech -21 1/2 Texas A&M - Tech has finally got the offense going a bit with the new personnel and is coming off an impressive win in Lincoln. The Aggies are coming off one of the most embarassing, unprepared, and uninspired performances I've seen since, well...the Aggies bent over and took it from Oklahoma a few years back. Now they head to Lubbock, where they're hated a lot more than they do the hating, and they've failed to cover in their last 5 trips. The Red Raiders are dominating this series since the Big 12 was formed, going 11-3 ATS over that time.
Oklahoma State -9 1/2 Baylor - I'm going to need to see some life out of the post-Robert Griffin Baylor offense before I start giving them the sort of respect they're getting here. Okie State is in a slight look-ahead spot here, with Texas looming next weekend, but I think their effort has been consistent enough to not worry about that, especially against a team that doesn't have enough offense to match scores with them. Baylor has only beaten the Cowboys once in their last 13 tries and are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 in the series. Oklahoma State has covered 7 of their last 10 away from home, including 3 out of 4 when they're the favorite.
Leans:
Alabama -14
Louisville +18
Northwestern -5
Boston College +7 1/2
Air Force +9 1/2
Friday, October 16, 2009
NCAA Football: Week 7
Texas -3 Oklahoma - Both teams have spent much of the season so far looking a bit lethargic, with OU suffering a couple of close losses to decent teams and Texas beating everybody their supposed to…with mixed opinions on how good the team has been. But, the Sooners were doing it without their Heisman trophy winning quarterback, and the Longhorns haven't REALLY had an occasion to give an inspired performance. Neither offense is totally trustable, after OU replaced 4 starters on the offensive line and Texas struggles to find a consistent rushing attack to relieve some pressure off Colt McCoy. And both defenses have looked good, though it's a little hard to tell with Texas how much of that is schedule related, with UT ranked 4th and OU 9th nationally (1st and 3rd against the run, respectively). Both teams will be able to get pressure with their front 4 and both QBs will have to make quick decisions getting rid of the football. And so the game comes down to which QB has a go-to receiver, and that would be Texas with Jordan Shipley. A healthy Jermaine Gresham is worth about a touchdown and would have made OU a bit of a favorite here, but without him…OU doesn't have a reliable way to convert third downs through the air, and the UT front 7 is too tough to count on the necessary rushing yardage. The Horns make more big plays and win by a couple scores. Texas is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series and OU has covered just 2 of their last 11 on neutral fields if you exclude the basically annual beating they give the Big 12 North in the Big 12 title game.
Colorado +10 Kansas - Colorado's defense has been legit, if a little overworked due to their offense not being able to stay on the field for long stretches. That offense should find sledding a little easier this week as they face the 57th ranked total defense…a number that's inflated by the less-than-challenging schedule the Jayhawks have played thus far. KU's defensive problems so far have mostly involved poor linebacker play, which doesn't bode well at all for shutting a team down that likes to build off of its running game and that made a change at quarterback, meaning there's very little film available on how the Buffs will use him. If KU can get the offense going early, get a couple of defensive stops, and hit Colorado in the mouth early…this one could really get going their way. That's a bunch of ifs with this many points available. Colorado is 5-1 against KU in the last 6 matchups in Boulder.
Wisconsin -2 1/2 Iowa - The Hawkeyes enjoy a high ranked based on really one game at Penn State, a nice win to be sure, but there are lots of reasons to question how good Penn State is…especially offensively, but Iowa was outgunned in that ballgame but was +2 in turnovers. The glaring fact is that Iowa has 1 good performance and 3 bad ones that they've narrowly escaped. Wisconsin is a good, not great, team in a bounce-back spot after losing to Ohio State last week and they traditionally play well at home. The Badgers have won 2 of the last 3 and 4 of the last 6 in this series.
Minnesota +17 1/2 Penn State - Speaking of the Nittany Lions being questionable on how good they are, this seems like a lot of points to be giving up considering that Minnesota has the most explosive offensive player on either team, they've been a solid, hard to blow out team in scratching out a 4-2 record thus far, and Penn State is a dismal 1-4 against the number…with the only win being against a terrible Illinois team in a bounce-back spot after losing to Iowa. Penn State has essentially had two weeks to prepare, after disposing of an FCS opponent last week, but the Gophers are well coached, they don't make mistakes, and they don't do things to beat themselves. Beating a team like that by 3 touchdowns in a tall order. Minnesota has won 4 of the last 6 outright against Penn State and have covered 6 of the last 8. Penn State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
USC -10 Notre Dame - Short and Sweet write-up…I don't believe in Notre Dame. They're the serendipitous college version of the Denver Broncos this year, and a team with the kind of talent the Trojans throw at you can and will wear them out. Vegas loves the Irish, to the tune of inflating every number such that they're 1-4 against the spread, having lost 4 straight. The Trojans have covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and 4 of the last 6 in South Bend. Notre Dame has covered in just 2 of their last 10 games overall.
Leans:
Nebraska -10
Oklahoma State -7
Ball State +3
Colorado +10 Kansas - Colorado's defense has been legit, if a little overworked due to their offense not being able to stay on the field for long stretches. That offense should find sledding a little easier this week as they face the 57th ranked total defense…a number that's inflated by the less-than-challenging schedule the Jayhawks have played thus far. KU's defensive problems so far have mostly involved poor linebacker play, which doesn't bode well at all for shutting a team down that likes to build off of its running game and that made a change at quarterback, meaning there's very little film available on how the Buffs will use him. If KU can get the offense going early, get a couple of defensive stops, and hit Colorado in the mouth early…this one could really get going their way. That's a bunch of ifs with this many points available. Colorado is 5-1 against KU in the last 6 matchups in Boulder.
Wisconsin -2 1/2 Iowa - The Hawkeyes enjoy a high ranked based on really one game at Penn State, a nice win to be sure, but there are lots of reasons to question how good Penn State is…especially offensively, but Iowa was outgunned in that ballgame but was +2 in turnovers. The glaring fact is that Iowa has 1 good performance and 3 bad ones that they've narrowly escaped. Wisconsin is a good, not great, team in a bounce-back spot after losing to Ohio State last week and they traditionally play well at home. The Badgers have won 2 of the last 3 and 4 of the last 6 in this series.
Minnesota +17 1/2 Penn State - Speaking of the Nittany Lions being questionable on how good they are, this seems like a lot of points to be giving up considering that Minnesota has the most explosive offensive player on either team, they've been a solid, hard to blow out team in scratching out a 4-2 record thus far, and Penn State is a dismal 1-4 against the number…with the only win being against a terrible Illinois team in a bounce-back spot after losing to Iowa. Penn State has essentially had two weeks to prepare, after disposing of an FCS opponent last week, but the Gophers are well coached, they don't make mistakes, and they don't do things to beat themselves. Beating a team like that by 3 touchdowns in a tall order. Minnesota has won 4 of the last 6 outright against Penn State and have covered 6 of the last 8. Penn State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
USC -10 Notre Dame - Short and Sweet write-up…I don't believe in Notre Dame. They're the serendipitous college version of the Denver Broncos this year, and a team with the kind of talent the Trojans throw at you can and will wear them out. Vegas loves the Irish, to the tune of inflating every number such that they're 1-4 against the spread, having lost 4 straight. The Trojans have covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and 4 of the last 6 in South Bend. Notre Dame has covered in just 2 of their last 10 games overall.
Leans:
Nebraska -10
Oklahoma State -7
Ball State +3
Sunday, October 11, 2009
NFL: Week 5
Lots of big favorites this week, making for a bunch of games to stay away from...
Dallas -7 Kansas City - The Cowboys aren't as good as they were supposed to be, but the Chiefs are living up to their billing. Romo in a bounce-back spot after two bad weeks in a row, and gets to play a defense that plays hard but doesn't generate much pass rush (ranking just 26th in the league in sacks). Also, the Chiefs should be bet against every week until we know Vegas has valued them properly.
New England -3 Denver - The Broncos are the worst 4-0 team in NFL history and eventually the horseshoe has to fall out of their ass. You'd have to call Cincy their best win, on a fluky tipped miracle, and their offense has shown a lot of weakness, only topping 17 points twice and against two of the worst five teams in football. The Patriots have covered 6 of their last 9 as a FG favorite or less. Denver has covered 2 of their last 9 at home.
Washinton +4 1/2 Carolina - The Panthers coming off the early BYE week, but they're a team in disarray right now. The Redskins haven't played well in any game, yet...but have scratched out a 2-2 record, so far. With Jake Delhomme playing terrible, I'm not sure Carolina can find a balanced enough attack to be good offensively. The Skins are 3-1-1 in their last 5 as a road dog.
Dallas -7 Kansas City - The Cowboys aren't as good as they were supposed to be, but the Chiefs are living up to their billing. Romo in a bounce-back spot after two bad weeks in a row, and gets to play a defense that plays hard but doesn't generate much pass rush (ranking just 26th in the league in sacks). Also, the Chiefs should be bet against every week until we know Vegas has valued them properly.
New England -3 Denver - The Broncos are the worst 4-0 team in NFL history and eventually the horseshoe has to fall out of their ass. You'd have to call Cincy their best win, on a fluky tipped miracle, and their offense has shown a lot of weakness, only topping 17 points twice and against two of the worst five teams in football. The Patriots have covered 6 of their last 9 as a FG favorite or less. Denver has covered 2 of their last 9 at home.
Washinton +4 1/2 Carolina - The Panthers coming off the early BYE week, but they're a team in disarray right now. The Redskins haven't played well in any game, yet...but have scratched out a 2-2 record, so far. With Jake Delhomme playing terrible, I'm not sure Carolina can find a balanced enough attack to be good offensively. The Skins are 3-1-1 in their last 5 as a road dog.
Friday, October 9, 2009
NCAA Football: Week 6
Minnesota -3 Purdue - The Boilermakers have suffered some close losses this year and are at a tipping point where they either fight for a couple of gutsy wins or pack it in and figure themselves to be a hard-luck team. The problem this week is they play a pretty good Minnesota team on the road, on their homecoming, and the Gophers are coming off a tough loss of their own against Wisconsin...just a bad spot for Purdue to try to get right. Minnesota is 2-1-1 in their last 4 against Purdue, and the Boilermakers are 1-5-1 ATS when they're getting less than 10 on the road.
Indiana +7 Virginia - The Hoosiers hit the road against after a decisive loss at home to Ohio State last week. A bit of an overreaction line here after Virginia showed signs of life in a win against North Carolina last week. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last 3 at home and is just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 chances as a favorite. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-1 against the number on the season and has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.
Oklahoma State -4 1/2 Texas A&M - Okie State misses Dez Bryant, due to some alleged contact with Neon Deion, but they're still a dynamic offense and a defense that can be exposed against spread-oriented teams but that is solid and improving against more traditional styles. The Aggies have failed to cover 4 straight (and 7 of their last 9) as an underdog.
Arkansas +3 Auburn - This is a value play for a couple of reasons, first Auburn is 5-0 on the season, 4-1 against the number, and generally generating a lot of action behind them for a team that has only been on the road once, where they beat a bad Tennessee team in a close game. Second, Arkansas won a narrow 3 point game last year but hidden in that is that the Razorbacks outgained the Tigers 416-193 in that game and it was a total fluke that Auburn kept it that close.
Georgia +1 Tennessee - Speaking of the Vols, and staying in the SEC, Tennessee's high point of the season was figuring out that Florida can't hurt you on the edges and avoiding getting blown out. When "we kept it under 2 touchdowns" is the highlight of your resume, you're not very good and you shouldn't be laying points to Georgia. The Bulldogs have a couple of decent wins at Arkansas and against South Carolina. Both of their losses were to fairly legit football teams. The Vols have two wins to their credit against Western Kentucky and Ohio. Until proven otherwise, Georgia is the better team here.
Oklahoma -28 Baylor - Sam Bradford is going to play, and it's anyone's guess as to how effective he'll be trying to shake the rust off, but the important matchup in this game is figuring out how Baylor is going to move the ball without Robert Griffin against a fierce Sooner defense. OU has uncharacteristically lost two games already, and they've got Texas looming in Big D next week, but they're 6th nationally in rushing defense and Baylor is a team that relies on running the ball to keep the chains moving. OU averages a 43-12 margin against Baylor since the arrival of Bob Stoops. The Sooners have covered 7 of their last 8 in Norman.
Leans:
Michigan +8
San Jose State -4
UTEP -2
Texas Tech -16
Akron +3 1/2
Indiana +7 Virginia - The Hoosiers hit the road against after a decisive loss at home to Ohio State last week. A bit of an overreaction line here after Virginia showed signs of life in a win against North Carolina last week. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last 3 at home and is just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 chances as a favorite. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-1 against the number on the season and has covered 3 of their last 4 as a road dog.
Oklahoma State -4 1/2 Texas A&M - Okie State misses Dez Bryant, due to some alleged contact with Neon Deion, but they're still a dynamic offense and a defense that can be exposed against spread-oriented teams but that is solid and improving against more traditional styles. The Aggies have failed to cover 4 straight (and 7 of their last 9) as an underdog.
Arkansas +3 Auburn - This is a value play for a couple of reasons, first Auburn is 5-0 on the season, 4-1 against the number, and generally generating a lot of action behind them for a team that has only been on the road once, where they beat a bad Tennessee team in a close game. Second, Arkansas won a narrow 3 point game last year but hidden in that is that the Razorbacks outgained the Tigers 416-193 in that game and it was a total fluke that Auburn kept it that close.
Georgia +1 Tennessee - Speaking of the Vols, and staying in the SEC, Tennessee's high point of the season was figuring out that Florida can't hurt you on the edges and avoiding getting blown out. When "we kept it under 2 touchdowns" is the highlight of your resume, you're not very good and you shouldn't be laying points to Georgia. The Bulldogs have a couple of decent wins at Arkansas and against South Carolina. Both of their losses were to fairly legit football teams. The Vols have two wins to their credit against Western Kentucky and Ohio. Until proven otherwise, Georgia is the better team here.
Oklahoma -28 Baylor - Sam Bradford is going to play, and it's anyone's guess as to how effective he'll be trying to shake the rust off, but the important matchup in this game is figuring out how Baylor is going to move the ball without Robert Griffin against a fierce Sooner defense. OU has uncharacteristically lost two games already, and they've got Texas looming in Big D next week, but they're 6th nationally in rushing defense and Baylor is a team that relies on running the ball to keep the chains moving. OU averages a 43-12 margin against Baylor since the arrival of Bob Stoops. The Sooners have covered 7 of their last 8 in Norman.
Leans:
Michigan +8
San Jose State -4
UTEP -2
Texas Tech -16
Akron +3 1/2
Saturday, October 3, 2009
NFL: Week 4
No writeups again this week...more laziness than not having time, but whatever...
Baltimore +2 New England
Buffalo PK Miami
Green Bay +4 Minnesota
San Diego +7 Pittsburgh
Tennessee -3 Jacksonville
NY Giants -9 Kansas City
San Francisco -9 1/2 St Louis
Baltimore +2 New England
Buffalo PK Miami
Green Bay +4 Minnesota
San Diego +7 Pittsburgh
Tennessee -3 Jacksonville
NY Giants -9 Kansas City
San Francisco -9 1/2 St Louis
Friday, October 2, 2009
NCAA Football: Week 5
Limited plays for tonight. I'll be watching line movements to add another play or two from my leans or otherwise. Pretty light week in college but likely a heavy week in the NFL. Good Luck.
Iowa State -2 1/2 Kansas State - The Cyclones are 3-1 against the number, while K-State really hasn't shown much fight against their FBS opponents. Iowa State has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, pretty much coinciding with the Wildcats not being good any more, and that trend continues to be true.
Arkansas -1 Texas A&M - This number should be at least 4 or 5. The Aggies roll in as a team that wasn't very good last year and hasn't been tested at all, yet. The Razorbacks played a shootout and lost with Georgia and were railroaded by Alabama, who looks like something resembling the best team in the country so far. Great bounce-back spot for Arkansas against a team that isn't as good as Vegas perceives them so far.
Florida Atlantic -3 1/2 Wyoming - Still a little too much love in the world based on one half disinterested football by Texas. FAU hasn't covered, yet but it's mostly based on difficulty of schedule and a little bad luck. Wyoming is also 0-3 against the number, but it's basically forgotten by them being competitive with the Horns for one half. This number should be 6+...valuable play here.
Leans:
Auburn +2
Arkansas State +22
Michigan State -3 1/2
Navy -3
Washington +12
Central Michigan -8
Iowa State -2 1/2 Kansas State - The Cyclones are 3-1 against the number, while K-State really hasn't shown much fight against their FBS opponents. Iowa State has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, pretty much coinciding with the Wildcats not being good any more, and that trend continues to be true.
Arkansas -1 Texas A&M - This number should be at least 4 or 5. The Aggies roll in as a team that wasn't very good last year and hasn't been tested at all, yet. The Razorbacks played a shootout and lost with Georgia and were railroaded by Alabama, who looks like something resembling the best team in the country so far. Great bounce-back spot for Arkansas against a team that isn't as good as Vegas perceives them so far.
Florida Atlantic -3 1/2 Wyoming - Still a little too much love in the world based on one half disinterested football by Texas. FAU hasn't covered, yet but it's mostly based on difficulty of schedule and a little bad luck. Wyoming is also 0-3 against the number, but it's basically forgotten by them being competitive with the Horns for one half. This number should be 6+...valuable play here.
Leans:
Auburn +2
Arkansas State +22
Michigan State -3 1/2
Navy -3
Washington +12
Central Michigan -8
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