Kansas / Texas Tech OVER 68 1/2 - This is a replay matchup of Texas and Missouri last week, from a total perspective. Both teams move the ball very efficiently through the air, the Red Raiders are #1 like they usually are, while the Jayhawks are #6. Neither defense is very good against the pass, Kansas checks in at #99, while Tech is close behind at #103. There will be lots of big plays and lots of points, with the defenses assuming that 2 stops per half is a pretty good effort. The end zone will get in the way more than either defense.
Florida -25 1/2 Kentucky - This line is a little higher than I thought it'd be, as Kentucky's record is pretty decent and they played Alabama tough a couple weeks ago. On the flip side, Florida has been perfect against the number outside of the unbelievable outright loss to Ole Miss, and they had a week to rest and get healthy. This is a team that still has national title hopes, and they'll play well against an overmatched Kentucky squad today in the swamp.
Tulsa -23 1/2 Central Florida - I might be getting on the bandwagon late, but Tulsa is good and has been a covering machine (7-0 SU, 5-1 ATS). Most of those covers are of the comfortable, by more than a touchdown variety. They had their scare two weeks ago on the road against SMU and bounced back last week for a tidy 77 point outburst. They've scored less than 56 points only once since the opener and AVERAGE 64 at home. Central Florida has beaten only one DI team and has been held under 20 points in 4 of their 6 games. They'll probably get past the 20 point mark today, but they'll need many more than that to cover the number.
Texas / Oklahoma State OVER 67 1/2 - Two explosive offenses, ranked #7 and #10 nationally, that are both playing extremely well right now. Okie State is in a tough spot here, as the national spotlight is finally on and they roll into Austin to play what has unquestionably been the best team in the country to date. I expect them to handle it reasonably well, they almost have to play better than Mizzou did last week, and I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball and score points.
Kansas PK Texas Tech - As mentioned above, Texas Tech's defense ranks #103 against the pass and the more troubling this is they've done that against a piss poor schedule (bottom 15 in Division I SOS to this point). They've struggled the last two weeks, going to overtime against Nebraska in Lubbock and letting a terrible Texas A&M team hang around last week. They're offense is legitimate, and they'll score some points, but they haven't been playing well, and they're on the road against the first good team they've played. In addition, they've got Texas coming to town next week and could peek ahead, and Kansas is pretty tough in Lawrence (winning 13 in a row since the Dollar $igns game). The Jayhawks should be on the right end of a shootout today, as Tech has a lot of trends to overcome.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Sunday Night Football
I don't like going .500 for a full day, so I'm playing a lean...
Tampa Bay -11 1/2 Seattle - Seattle wasn't very good before the injuries started, and they're really not very good now. National television should keep the Bucs from being complacent in this spot and make them play at least reasonably well, and them playing reasonably well means a win by a couple touchdowns.
Good Luck.
Tampa Bay -11 1/2 Seattle - Seattle wasn't very good before the injuries started, and they're really not very good now. National television should keep the Bucs from being complacent in this spot and make them play at least reasonably well, and them playing reasonably well means a win by a couple touchdowns.
Good Luck.
NFL: Week 7 Continued
Kansas City / Tennessee UNDER 35
Washington -7 Cleveland (bought the hook)
Too close to kickoff for writeups.
Washington -7 Cleveland (bought the hook)
Too close to kickoff for writeups.
NFL: Week 7
Brief summaries this week...
Minnesota +3 Chicago - Very evenly matched teams, and the Vikings are coming off their only really poor performance of the season. The Bears are 5th in the league against the run, but both of the top 10 running offenses they've played have had success and won the game outright.
NY Giants -10 1/2 San Francisco - The 49ers are 2-4 SU and ATS and the two wins are both against terrible football teams. They travel cross country today for an early kick against a pissed off Giants team that got embarrassed on Monday night by the Browns. The Giants will score early and often and the '9ers will have a hard time keeping up.
Indianapolis / Green Bay OVER 47 - Two prolific, balanced offenses, perfect weather, both QBs getting comfortable as they either gain experience or get their game legs back underneath them...depending on which guy you're talking about. This game has all the makings of a shootout.
Carolina -3 New Orleans - The Panthers are the better team here and are coming off a loss and returning home to where they've been extremely tough, going 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS. The Saints have been good against weaker teams, beating everybody they're supposed to, but they don't have a signature win, yet. It'll be hard for them to get one today on the road against the #2 passing defense in the league.
Leans:
Baltimore +3
Raiders +3
Minnesota +3 Chicago - Very evenly matched teams, and the Vikings are coming off their only really poor performance of the season. The Bears are 5th in the league against the run, but both of the top 10 running offenses they've played have had success and won the game outright.
NY Giants -10 1/2 San Francisco - The 49ers are 2-4 SU and ATS and the two wins are both against terrible football teams. They travel cross country today for an early kick against a pissed off Giants team that got embarrassed on Monday night by the Browns. The Giants will score early and often and the '9ers will have a hard time keeping up.
Indianapolis / Green Bay OVER 47 - Two prolific, balanced offenses, perfect weather, both QBs getting comfortable as they either gain experience or get their game legs back underneath them...depending on which guy you're talking about. This game has all the makings of a shootout.
Carolina -3 New Orleans - The Panthers are the better team here and are coming off a loss and returning home to where they've been extremely tough, going 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS. The Saints have been good against weaker teams, beating everybody they're supposed to, but they don't have a signature win, yet. It'll be hard for them to get one today on the road against the #2 passing defense in the league.
Leans:
Baltimore +3
Raiders +3
Saturday, October 18, 2008
More College Foots
No real time for writeups, but I'm adding two plays...
Louisville / Middle Tennessee State OVER 48 1/2
Rutgers -2 1/2 Connecticut
Good Luck.
Louisville / Middle Tennessee State OVER 48 1/2
Rutgers -2 1/2 Connecticut
Good Luck.
Friday, October 17, 2008
NCAA Week 8
Good card this week, which is nice. I can't keep losing every game. Right?
Buffalo -11 Army - Buffalo parlayed their Hail Mary win over Temple into 3 straight losses and they head home for just the thing that will cure what ails you...a terrible Army team that, through back-to-back wins and covers, is finally providing value again. Army has proven that they're not the worst team in Division I, but they're still not good enough for this spot. The Black Knights have covered back-to-back games on the road, but that ended a 4 game ATS losing streak away from home. Buffalo needs this one, and playing at home they'll get it comfortably.
Texas / Missouri OVER 65 - Two teams that can throw the ball playing against two defenses that absolutely cannot defend it. Against schedules that are pretty pedestrian (43 and 87 according to Sagarin), these defenses rank ##109 and #113 against the pass. So, both offensive coordinators have spent the whole week putting game plans in place to take advantage. Actually, now that I think about it, Dave Christensen has done that, Greg Davis will go zone read all night. Texas is #3 against the run, but I'm not sure if that's because they're good at it or because teams don't even try given the squeezably soft pass defense. In any event, even if the Horns make Mizzou one dimensional, that dimension is pretty good. The OVER is 5-1 in games involving these teams this year. Shootout.
Colorado -3 1/2 Kansas State - Colorado opened 3-0 against the number before dropping their last 3. But those losses were to some pretty decent football teams, as they failed to cover on the road against Florida State and Kansas and at home against, in hindsight, what was a pretty undervalued Texas team. Meanwhile, K-State got to pick up a road win against an absolutely terrible Texas A&M team to end a 3 game ATS skid. The Buffaloes drew top 20 teams in their first two conference games to start 0-2 making this one they'll be hungry to win. K-State gave up 544 yards of offense to Texas A&M last week. Read that again, 544 yards to Texas A&M.
Iowa State +7 1/2 Nebraska - Last week is playing WAY too heavily on this line. Entering last Saturday, Iowa State was 4-0-1 against the number while Nebraska was 2-3 with the two covers coming against absolute nobodies. But, Nebraska took Texas Tech to overtime and Iowa State got blown out at Baylor (that's a decent Baylor team, by the way...with a QB that will be a star soon). So, all of a sudden, Iowa State is getting more than a touchdown at home? I don't buy it. The Cyclones are 3-0 against the number this year, with all the covers being by more than a touchdown, and going back to last year they've covered 6 straight in Ames. Nebraska has covered only 2 of their last 7 away from home.
Oklahoma -19 1/2 Kansas - Lots of bad things happening for the good guys here...Oklahoma coming off a loss to Texas last week, game in Norman, KU hasn't been sharp on the road since the unraveling against South Florida started, the Jayhawks turn the ball over and the Sooners don't, etc. If this game in close after the first quarter, it could be a close ball game, but Oklahoma has started quickly this year...winning first quarters by a cumulative 110-6, while Kansas has actually LOST the first quarter, both overall and in road games. This one could get ugly early.
Northwestern -4 Purdue - The Wildcats finally fell from the ranks of the unbeatens last week, even though they outgained Michigan State by 160+ yards as a 2 point dog. Alas, they lost the turnover battle 3-0, gave up too many short fields, and didn't make the Spartans (a team that's way too good to give lots of help to) drive long fields. Purdue isn't as bad as they look, they've had a tough schedule...at least tough as Big Ten schedules go, but Northwestern is in a spot here where they should really play well and win going away.
Leans:
South Florida -24
Wisconsin +4
Texas Tech -21
Buffalo -11 Army - Buffalo parlayed their Hail Mary win over Temple into 3 straight losses and they head home for just the thing that will cure what ails you...a terrible Army team that, through back-to-back wins and covers, is finally providing value again. Army has proven that they're not the worst team in Division I, but they're still not good enough for this spot. The Black Knights have covered back-to-back games on the road, but that ended a 4 game ATS losing streak away from home. Buffalo needs this one, and playing at home they'll get it comfortably.
Texas / Missouri OVER 65 - Two teams that can throw the ball playing against two defenses that absolutely cannot defend it. Against schedules that are pretty pedestrian (43 and 87 according to Sagarin), these defenses rank ##109 and #113 against the pass. So, both offensive coordinators have spent the whole week putting game plans in place to take advantage. Actually, now that I think about it, Dave Christensen has done that, Greg Davis will go zone read all night. Texas is #3 against the run, but I'm not sure if that's because they're good at it or because teams don't even try given the squeezably soft pass defense. In any event, even if the Horns make Mizzou one dimensional, that dimension is pretty good. The OVER is 5-1 in games involving these teams this year. Shootout.
Colorado -3 1/2 Kansas State - Colorado opened 3-0 against the number before dropping their last 3. But those losses were to some pretty decent football teams, as they failed to cover on the road against Florida State and Kansas and at home against, in hindsight, what was a pretty undervalued Texas team. Meanwhile, K-State got to pick up a road win against an absolutely terrible Texas A&M team to end a 3 game ATS skid. The Buffaloes drew top 20 teams in their first two conference games to start 0-2 making this one they'll be hungry to win. K-State gave up 544 yards of offense to Texas A&M last week. Read that again, 544 yards to Texas A&M.
Iowa State +7 1/2 Nebraska - Last week is playing WAY too heavily on this line. Entering last Saturday, Iowa State was 4-0-1 against the number while Nebraska was 2-3 with the two covers coming against absolute nobodies. But, Nebraska took Texas Tech to overtime and Iowa State got blown out at Baylor (that's a decent Baylor team, by the way...with a QB that will be a star soon). So, all of a sudden, Iowa State is getting more than a touchdown at home? I don't buy it. The Cyclones are 3-0 against the number this year, with all the covers being by more than a touchdown, and going back to last year they've covered 6 straight in Ames. Nebraska has covered only 2 of their last 7 away from home.
Oklahoma -19 1/2 Kansas - Lots of bad things happening for the good guys here...Oklahoma coming off a loss to Texas last week, game in Norman, KU hasn't been sharp on the road since the unraveling against South Florida started, the Jayhawks turn the ball over and the Sooners don't, etc. If this game in close after the first quarter, it could be a close ball game, but Oklahoma has started quickly this year...winning first quarters by a cumulative 110-6, while Kansas has actually LOST the first quarter, both overall and in road games. This one could get ugly early.
Northwestern -4 Purdue - The Wildcats finally fell from the ranks of the unbeatens last week, even though they outgained Michigan State by 160+ yards as a 2 point dog. Alas, they lost the turnover battle 3-0, gave up too many short fields, and didn't make the Spartans (a team that's way too good to give lots of help to) drive long fields. Purdue isn't as bad as they look, they've had a tough schedule...at least tough as Big Ten schedules go, but Northwestern is in a spot here where they should really play well and win going away.
Leans:
South Florida -24
Wisconsin +4
Texas Tech -21
Sunday, October 12, 2008
NFL: Week 6
New Orleans -7 Oakland - The Saints lost a heartbreaker on Monday night and have the short week to prepare for a bad Raiders team at home. What's attractive about this game, though...is that New Orleans is a decent football team, and them being in last place in their division right now makes this a bit of a must-win. Desperation is usually good to put your money behind. Oakland is breaking in a new interim head coach, though they should be quitting on the season any minute now. New Orleans is 2-1 at home SU and ATS and has covered 5 of the last 6 against the Raiders. Oakland is 0-5 ATS since 2003 coming off their BYE week.
NY Jets -9 1/2 Cincinnati - The Bengals aren't a great football team even when healthy and showing up at Brett Favre's house without Carson Palmer available puts them in an even more vulnerable position. On top of that, the Jets are rested off their BYE week, which is a position they've played very well in (covering each of their last 6). The Bengals are 31st in total offense and just won't be able to match the scoring of the Jets in this one.
Green Bay +1 Seattle - Green Bay dropped a game they shouldn't have last week and rolls into Seattle as an underdog against a Seahawks team that isn't very good. While they are typically tough at home, this is a game that the Packers have to have. Lost in the hoopla of Favre's departure is that Aaron Rodgers has played pretty well. The Pack are 8th in passing offense, while Rodgers in 6th is passing yards individually, and he's tossed 9 TDs against 4 INTs. Pretty solid play. They'll have options offensively as the Seahawks don't stop either the run (24th) or the pass (25th) very well.
Leans:
Houston -3 (The Dolphins are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 as an underdog of 4 or less)
Carolina +1 1/2 (Nothing particular...just a feeling)
Washington -13 (The Rams closest game has been an 15 point ATS loss)
NY Jets -9 1/2 Cincinnati - The Bengals aren't a great football team even when healthy and showing up at Brett Favre's house without Carson Palmer available puts them in an even more vulnerable position. On top of that, the Jets are rested off their BYE week, which is a position they've played very well in (covering each of their last 6). The Bengals are 31st in total offense and just won't be able to match the scoring of the Jets in this one.
Green Bay +1 Seattle - Green Bay dropped a game they shouldn't have last week and rolls into Seattle as an underdog against a Seahawks team that isn't very good. While they are typically tough at home, this is a game that the Packers have to have. Lost in the hoopla of Favre's departure is that Aaron Rodgers has played pretty well. The Pack are 8th in passing offense, while Rodgers in 6th is passing yards individually, and he's tossed 9 TDs against 4 INTs. Pretty solid play. They'll have options offensively as the Seahawks don't stop either the run (24th) or the pass (25th) very well.
Leans:
Houston -3 (The Dolphins are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 as an underdog of 4 or less)
Carolina +1 1/2 (Nothing particular...just a feeling)
Washington -13 (The Rams closest game has been an 15 point ATS loss)
Friday, October 10, 2008
NCAA Week 7
Well, a trip to Vegas and my golf club's Ryder Cup weekend meant two weeks off from the blog. But I'm back, rested, and ready to kill my (and your) bookie. We're going to stay largely in the Big 12 this week so, onto the picks....
Texas Tech -20 1/2 Nebraska - The Huskers got rolled up by Mizzou in Lincoln and this is an equally bad spot for them. Tech will have rolled up half a hundred by the end of the 3rd quarter. The Red Raiders are 3-0 against the number this year, while Nebraska is 2-3 and hasn't been away from home, yet. Tech has covered the last 2 in this series and 4 of the last 6, including a 70-10 beatdown in the last meeting in Lubbock...which was the most points ever scored against the Cornhuskers until last year when they lost to the best team in college football history.
Missouri - 14 Oklahoma State - Vegas is correctly valuing Missouri at this piont, but Okie State is getting WAY too much respect. This is a team that's probably improved, and will end up being pretty good, but they've played nobody and they're 4-0 against the number. While I hate Mizzou as much as the next guy and hope OSU pulls the upset outright, it's just not going to happen. The Tigers are 3-1 against the number, they were 10-2 ATS last year, and they've covered 5 of the last 6 against the Cowboys.
Northwestern +1 1/2 Michigan State - Tough spot for Sparty this week. They're probably the better team here, but this game falls in between home games against Iowa (which they narrowly won) and Ohio State (who they host next week). These teams have one common opponent in Iowa, which both beat narrowly...though Northwestern got that win on the road. So, Northwestern is at home, as an underdog, with a week's rest, the line is moving down even with most of the best on Michigan State, and the Wildcats are 5-1 against the number in the last 6 in the series.
The Red River Shootout - The Longhorns have won 2 of the last 3 in this series (covering all 3) and lost by a touchdown last year when Jamaal Charles fumbled inside the Sooner 5 and Colt McCoy threw an interception. Outside of the turnovers, Texas played better. On the flip side, Sam Bradford was a true freshman playing quarterback in his 5th game. He was pretty good that day and should be better this year. The Sooner offensive line has something like 600 starts between them at this point, and OU had a much easier time running the ball in the game last year (170 yards on 4.1/carry vs 61 yards on 2.1/carry for Texas). With OU having everybody back, and the Horns losing Charles...that advantage should grow this year. These teams have both rolled and are a combined 10-0 against the number this year. OU has to get the (slight) objective nod, as TCU is better than anybody Texas has played and Cincinnati might be, too. Still, an ass-whipping at Colorado is a good win. Should be a hell of a ball game...I'll take Oklahoma -6 1/2.
Leans:
Baylor -4 1/2
Colorado +14
Tulsa -24
Texas Tech -20 1/2 Nebraska - The Huskers got rolled up by Mizzou in Lincoln and this is an equally bad spot for them. Tech will have rolled up half a hundred by the end of the 3rd quarter. The Red Raiders are 3-0 against the number this year, while Nebraska is 2-3 and hasn't been away from home, yet. Tech has covered the last 2 in this series and 4 of the last 6, including a 70-10 beatdown in the last meeting in Lubbock...which was the most points ever scored against the Cornhuskers until last year when they lost to the best team in college football history.
Missouri - 14 Oklahoma State - Vegas is correctly valuing Missouri at this piont, but Okie State is getting WAY too much respect. This is a team that's probably improved, and will end up being pretty good, but they've played nobody and they're 4-0 against the number. While I hate Mizzou as much as the next guy and hope OSU pulls the upset outright, it's just not going to happen. The Tigers are 3-1 against the number, they were 10-2 ATS last year, and they've covered 5 of the last 6 against the Cowboys.
Northwestern +1 1/2 Michigan State - Tough spot for Sparty this week. They're probably the better team here, but this game falls in between home games against Iowa (which they narrowly won) and Ohio State (who they host next week). These teams have one common opponent in Iowa, which both beat narrowly...though Northwestern got that win on the road. So, Northwestern is at home, as an underdog, with a week's rest, the line is moving down even with most of the best on Michigan State, and the Wildcats are 5-1 against the number in the last 6 in the series.
The Red River Shootout - The Longhorns have won 2 of the last 3 in this series (covering all 3) and lost by a touchdown last year when Jamaal Charles fumbled inside the Sooner 5 and Colt McCoy threw an interception. Outside of the turnovers, Texas played better. On the flip side, Sam Bradford was a true freshman playing quarterback in his 5th game. He was pretty good that day and should be better this year. The Sooner offensive line has something like 600 starts between them at this point, and OU had a much easier time running the ball in the game last year (170 yards on 4.1/carry vs 61 yards on 2.1/carry for Texas). With OU having everybody back, and the Horns losing Charles...that advantage should grow this year. These teams have both rolled and are a combined 10-0 against the number this year. OU has to get the (slight) objective nod, as TCU is better than anybody Texas has played and Cincinnati might be, too. Still, an ass-whipping at Colorado is a good win. Should be a hell of a ball game...I'll take Oklahoma -6 1/2.
Leans:
Baylor -4 1/2
Colorado +14
Tulsa -24
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
