Kansas / Dayton UNDER 133 - Two teams that are much better defensively than they are offensively. Collins and Aldrich won't have as easy of a time getting to the basket as they did in the first game. Dayton's point guard is a playmaker that you can play off of (worse shooter than Dogus Balbay), so I'd expect whoever's guarding him to sag off and congest the lane...low scoring affair.
Michigan State -4 Southern Cal - The Trojans have played well over the last couple weeks, but wins over UCLA and Boston College aren't looking as good with the tournament performance of the Bruins (squeaker over VCU before getting run out of the gym against Villanova) and the ACC. This is a game that should be pretty close for most of it but ultimately Michigan State is quite a bit better team and should pull away in the 2nd half.
Wisconsin +3 1/2 Xavier - Mid major teams, even from conferences as good as the A10, tend to struggle with slow, plodding, phyiscal teams like Wisconsin. The Badgers did a nice job against Florida State in the first round, and are probably due to shoot it a little better than the 40% they put up in that game. Xavier has been a team that you can keep from scoring with tough defense, and Wisconsin will have some success at that today.
Leans:
Cleveland State +2 1/2
Missouri -3
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Saturday, March 21, 2009
NCAA Tournament: Round 2
No game writeups today after the 12 hour beer and basketball marathon yesterday, but here are the picks.
Texas +8
Western Kentucky +11
Washington -1 1/2
Leans:
Maryland +9
North Carolina -11 1/2
Interesting tournament so far, and we finally got some great finished last night. The middle of the ACC has not shown well, with Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College all losing as a higher seed. Maryland pulled the minor upset, while Duke and Carolina haven't played anyone, yet. The Big 12 hasn't lost a team, yet...but I wouldn't expect that to last much longer. Still, getting all 6 teams to the 2nd round is an accomplishment. Pac 10 and Big Ten have both been a mixed bag. The SEC really does suck, with only one team left in the tournament. Most surprising game so far has to be Cleveland State over Wake. Cleveland State had to spring an upset over Butler in the Horizon League tournament to get in the dance, but it's a team that can play...they're just a little inconsistent. Buried in the losses to K-State and Wright State is a win against Syracuse. It's really a pretty decent team, which Wake apparently wasn't ready for.
Texas +8
Western Kentucky +11
Washington -1 1/2
Leans:
Maryland +9
North Carolina -11 1/2
Interesting tournament so far, and we finally got some great finished last night. The middle of the ACC has not shown well, with Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College all losing as a higher seed. Maryland pulled the minor upset, while Duke and Carolina haven't played anyone, yet. The Big 12 hasn't lost a team, yet...but I wouldn't expect that to last much longer. Still, getting all 6 teams to the 2nd round is an accomplishment. Pac 10 and Big Ten have both been a mixed bag. The SEC really does suck, with only one team left in the tournament. Most surprising game so far has to be Cleveland State over Wake. Cleveland State had to spring an upset over Butler in the Horizon League tournament to get in the dance, but it's a team that can play...they're just a little inconsistent. Buried in the losses to K-State and Wright State is a win against Syracuse. It's really a pretty decent team, which Wake apparently wasn't ready for.
Friday, March 20, 2009
March Madness: Round 1, Day 2
Florida State -2 1/2 Wisconsin - Florida State is setup as the sort of team that could make a little run in this tournament...really good defensively (7th nationally in FG% defense), they've got a borderline superstar senior guard in Toney Douglas, and they can create transition offense to survive periods when shots aren't falling. Wisconsin is a slow it down team, ranking 334th out of 344 teams, so this will be the sort of game that will make you want to gouge your eyes out if you're rooting for the Seminoles, but the Badgers were borderline not worthy of making the tournament and Big Ten teams were 1-3 against the number yesterday.
Arizona +1 1/2 Utah - Arizona doesn't deserve to be in the tournament, but they've been hearing that all week and will come out fired up. They'll also have the two best players on the court in Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger. When those guys play like they care, Arizona is decent. In the tournament, they should probably do that. Utah is a good but not great team. They were 4-4 against tournament teams (but that includes a Morgan State win) and 0-3 on the road in those games.
Leans:
Arizona State -5 1/2
Siena +3 1/2
Tennessee -2
Arizona +1 1/2 Utah - Arizona doesn't deserve to be in the tournament, but they've been hearing that all week and will come out fired up. They'll also have the two best players on the court in Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger. When those guys play like they care, Arizona is decent. In the tournament, they should probably do that. Utah is a good but not great team. They were 4-4 against tournament teams (but that includes a Morgan State win) and 0-3 on the road in those games.
Leans:
Arizona State -5 1/2
Siena +3 1/2
Tennessee -2
Thursday, March 19, 2009
March Madness: Round 1, Day 1
Memphis -20 Cal State Northridge - Bad team, in fact in my bracketology I had them as a 16 seed. Northridge hasn't been competitive against any decent teams, the Big West was down (even for them) this year, and Calpari has been able to spend the week telling his guys that they get no respect and that's why they didn't get a 1 seed. It wouldn't surprise me to see Memphis struggle offensively early, but they'll be dominant on defense. The Tigers getting to 65 or 70 points could mean an easy cover, they'll be that good defensively.
Butler +2 LSU - The way I evaluate mid-majors is by seeing how they did away from their building. Butler was 10-4 in road/neutral games, including a win at Xavier. Reasonably solid. LSU has as suspect of a resume as you'll see among major conference teams with as good of a record as they've had. These Tigers were 26-7 on the season, including a 13-3 run through the SEC regular season. But the downside to these guys is that they're just 3-4 against teams that made the tournament. Butler is a better team here...take the points.
Western Kentucky +5 Illinois - Illinois has scored more than 67 points twice since December. In that same time, they've been held under 60 points 8 times...so immediately, this looks like a team that you shouldn't be laying too many points with. The Hilltoppers are led in scoring by two experienced guards that came off the bench to play important minutes on last year's Sweet 16 team. These guys won't be intimidated by the bright lights and should make this something close to a one possession game. Wouldn't be totally shocking to see this be the 5-12 upset (though it's not my favorite 12 seed).
BYU -2 1/2 Texas A&M - A matchup of solid, if unspectacular teams. Neither one has anything you'd really consider to be a terrible loss. A&M has a couple of quality wins in Missouri and Texas, but both of those were at home. Their best win away from College Station is probably Nebraska. I really like Josh Carter and the things that he can do, but BYU has two guys that are around his size, one that plays exlucsively on the perimeter, that can help neutralize him. BYU also matches up well with the other perimeter spots, and I don't think you can trust A&M's interior guys to get it done. The Aggies have relied on perimeter play mostly and they've drawn a team with better perimeter talent.
UCLA -7 1/2 VCU - There are certain things about March Madness that I sometimes get swept up in, like always trying to figure out where the upsets will be. But something that almost always happens is the sexy upset pick getting boatraced. I have no idea what the percentages are and I couldn't find them in 45 seconds on ESPN, but this seems like the most popular upset pick among the 11-13 seeds. Now, UCLA is traveling 2700 miles, that's true, but they've seen the bullets fly in this deal...no one on the roster has ever not made the final four. The Bruins will be ready to play.
Washington -6 Mississippi State - Running through a 4 day conference tournament, every day fighting for your NCAA tournament life, takes a lot out of you. Last year, Georgia pulled off the feat, only to fall in the first round comfortably to Xavier. Syracuse pulled it off a three years ago, even earning a 5 seed for their trouble, only to be dropped in round 1 by 12 seeded Texas A&M. Washington is a pretty good team that got better as the year went along, having won 10 of their last 12, and they boast 8 wins against teams that are in the tournament field.
Leans:
Maryland +1 1/2
Texas -4
Northern Iowa +8 1/2
Butler +2 LSU - The way I evaluate mid-majors is by seeing how they did away from their building. Butler was 10-4 in road/neutral games, including a win at Xavier. Reasonably solid. LSU has as suspect of a resume as you'll see among major conference teams with as good of a record as they've had. These Tigers were 26-7 on the season, including a 13-3 run through the SEC regular season. But the downside to these guys is that they're just 3-4 against teams that made the tournament. Butler is a better team here...take the points.
Western Kentucky +5 Illinois - Illinois has scored more than 67 points twice since December. In that same time, they've been held under 60 points 8 times...so immediately, this looks like a team that you shouldn't be laying too many points with. The Hilltoppers are led in scoring by two experienced guards that came off the bench to play important minutes on last year's Sweet 16 team. These guys won't be intimidated by the bright lights and should make this something close to a one possession game. Wouldn't be totally shocking to see this be the 5-12 upset (though it's not my favorite 12 seed).
BYU -2 1/2 Texas A&M - A matchup of solid, if unspectacular teams. Neither one has anything you'd really consider to be a terrible loss. A&M has a couple of quality wins in Missouri and Texas, but both of those were at home. Their best win away from College Station is probably Nebraska. I really like Josh Carter and the things that he can do, but BYU has two guys that are around his size, one that plays exlucsively on the perimeter, that can help neutralize him. BYU also matches up well with the other perimeter spots, and I don't think you can trust A&M's interior guys to get it done. The Aggies have relied on perimeter play mostly and they've drawn a team with better perimeter talent.
UCLA -7 1/2 VCU - There are certain things about March Madness that I sometimes get swept up in, like always trying to figure out where the upsets will be. But something that almost always happens is the sexy upset pick getting boatraced. I have no idea what the percentages are and I couldn't find them in 45 seconds on ESPN, but this seems like the most popular upset pick among the 11-13 seeds. Now, UCLA is traveling 2700 miles, that's true, but they've seen the bullets fly in this deal...no one on the roster has ever not made the final four. The Bruins will be ready to play.
Washington -6 Mississippi State - Running through a 4 day conference tournament, every day fighting for your NCAA tournament life, takes a lot out of you. Last year, Georgia pulled off the feat, only to fall in the first round comfortably to Xavier. Syracuse pulled it off a three years ago, even earning a 5 seed for their trouble, only to be dropped in round 1 by 12 seeded Texas A&M. Washington is a pretty good team that got better as the year went along, having won 10 of their last 12, and they boast 8 wins against teams that are in the tournament field.
Leans:
Maryland +1 1/2
Texas -4
Northern Iowa +8 1/2
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Bracketology
With more and more geeks trying their hand at their own bracket these days, it seemed like a good year to admit that I'm one of those geeks. So, I wasted a couple hours of my life the last day or two projecting the field. I tried to follow all of the rules that the committee has to (Memphis can't play in the south, no conference matchups without upsets, teams can be moved up or down a line from their natural seed for geography, etc). It's virtually impossible to get the actual matchups right, so I'm hoping that I've got most teams within one seed of where they actually fall and that I don't miss more than 2-3 fates of the bubble teams. We'll see how it goes. Here's the projection....
East:
1. North Carolina - Mike Patrick will overtly root for them on air at least once (see FSU tape).
2. Oklahoma - Still on the two line because two losses will be written off to Blake Griffin injury.
3. Syracuse - I'm going to assume they get that 3 seed bounce from the Big East tourney.
4. Villanova - Only 6-7 against the top 50...but 5-5 against the top 25, using Sagarin.
5. Xavier
6. Clemson
7. Butler
8. Tennessee
9. Oklahoma State
10. Michigan
11. San Diego State
12. Northern Iowa
13. Western Kentucky
14. Akron
15. Morgan State
16. Cal State Northridge
South:
1. Louisville - Only BCS team to win conference and conference tourney.
2. Duke - Early exit candidate against whoever ends up being their 7/10 winner.
3. Missouri - Round of applause for their first regular or postseason Big 12 title in any men's sport.
4. Wake Forest - Can't get a good feel for this team. Anywhere from 3-5 wouldn't surprise me.
5. West Virginia
6. LSU
7. Utah State
8. Ohio State
9. California
10. Boston College
11. USC
12. St. Mary's
13. American
14. Stephen F Austin
15. East Tennessee State
16. Chattanooga / Alabama State winner
Midwest:
1. Pittsburgh - Early exit in Big East tourney is a concern...two wins over UConn keep them here.
2. Michigan State - A 2 seed close to home is nearly as good as being shipped out west as a 1.
3. Kansas - Playing terrible. Body of work (10-5 against top 50) will prop them up.
4. Florida State - Playing great. Athletic, defends well, superstar senior guard...all the ingredients.
5. Illinois
6. Arizona State
7. Marquette
8. Minnesota
9. Siena
10. Dayton
11. Wisconsin
12. Temple
13. North Dakota State
14. Robert Morris
15. Binghamton
16. Morehead State
West:
1. Connecticut - Last 1 seed, so I've got them shipped out west. Injury to Dyson is probably fatal.
2. Memphis - Will be a 1 seed. The 2-3 record against the top 50 will make it a joke, though.
3. Washington - Pac 10 champs have improved greatly over the course of the season.
4. Gonzaga - Quietly had another great season. Do they FINALLY make a run as a favorite?
5. UCLA
6. Purdue
7. Utah
8. Texas
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Maryland
12. VCU
13. Cleveland State
14. Portland State
15. Cornell
16. Radford
Last 4 In:
Maryland
Wisconsin
San Diego State
St. Mary's
Last 4 Out:
Creighton
Arizona
Penn State
Tulsa
Contingency Planning:
If Mississippi State beats Tennessee in the SEC final, they're swapped in for St. Mary's.
If UT-San Antonio beats Stephen F Austin, they get the bid and are swapped down to the 15 line for Morgan State.
I don't think the ACC or Big Ten final has much effect on seeding. Clemson, with a very similar resume to Florida State, made a nice run in the ACC last year and ended as a 5 seed.
Let the Madness begin....
Edited: Swapped Syracuse and Villanova in the East.
East:
1. North Carolina - Mike Patrick will overtly root for them on air at least once (see FSU tape).
2. Oklahoma - Still on the two line because two losses will be written off to Blake Griffin injury.
3. Syracuse - I'm going to assume they get that 3 seed bounce from the Big East tourney.
4. Villanova - Only 6-7 against the top 50...but 5-5 against the top 25, using Sagarin.
5. Xavier
6. Clemson
7. Butler
8. Tennessee
9. Oklahoma State
10. Michigan
11. San Diego State
12. Northern Iowa
13. Western Kentucky
14. Akron
15. Morgan State
16. Cal State Northridge
South:
1. Louisville - Only BCS team to win conference and conference tourney.
2. Duke - Early exit candidate against whoever ends up being their 7/10 winner.
3. Missouri - Round of applause for their first regular or postseason Big 12 title in any men's sport.
4. Wake Forest - Can't get a good feel for this team. Anywhere from 3-5 wouldn't surprise me.
5. West Virginia
6. LSU
7. Utah State
8. Ohio State
9. California
10. Boston College
11. USC
12. St. Mary's
13. American
14. Stephen F Austin
15. East Tennessee State
16. Chattanooga / Alabama State winner
Midwest:
1. Pittsburgh - Early exit in Big East tourney is a concern...two wins over UConn keep them here.
2. Michigan State - A 2 seed close to home is nearly as good as being shipped out west as a 1.
3. Kansas - Playing terrible. Body of work (10-5 against top 50) will prop them up.
4. Florida State - Playing great. Athletic, defends well, superstar senior guard...all the ingredients.
5. Illinois
6. Arizona State
7. Marquette
8. Minnesota
9. Siena
10. Dayton
11. Wisconsin
12. Temple
13. North Dakota State
14. Robert Morris
15. Binghamton
16. Morehead State
West:
1. Connecticut - Last 1 seed, so I've got them shipped out west. Injury to Dyson is probably fatal.
2. Memphis - Will be a 1 seed. The 2-3 record against the top 50 will make it a joke, though.
3. Washington - Pac 10 champs have improved greatly over the course of the season.
4. Gonzaga - Quietly had another great season. Do they FINALLY make a run as a favorite?
5. UCLA
6. Purdue
7. Utah
8. Texas
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Maryland
12. VCU
13. Cleveland State
14. Portland State
15. Cornell
16. Radford
Last 4 In:
Maryland
Wisconsin
San Diego State
St. Mary's
Last 4 Out:
Creighton
Arizona
Penn State
Tulsa
Contingency Planning:
If Mississippi State beats Tennessee in the SEC final, they're swapped in for St. Mary's.
If UT-San Antonio beats Stephen F Austin, they get the bid and are swapped down to the 15 line for Morgan State.
I don't think the ACC or Big Ten final has much effect on seeding. Clemson, with a very similar resume to Florida State, made a nice run in the ACC last year and ended as a 5 seed.
Let the Madness begin....
Edited: Swapped Syracuse and Villanova in the East.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Big 12 Basketball Awards
Player of the Year - Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)
You'll hear more than you want to over the next couple weeks as he racks up Big 12 and National POY awards. He's the best player in the country by a decent amount and had a great season. 22.1 points and 14.2 rebounds, both best in the Big 12, and good for 12th and 2nd in the nation, respectively.
Defensive Player of the Year - Cole Aldrich (Kansas)
In a year where the conference was devoid of a guard that was a defensive standout, Aldrich led the lead in blocks with 2.5/game (good for 21st in the country) and changed many more with his interior presence and was a huge reason why Kansas led the conference, and was 7th nationally, in field goal percentage defense. He trailed only Griffin among Big 12 players in rebounds.
Freshman of the Year - Willie Warren (Oklahoma)
By far the conference's best freshman and has played so well that there's a possibility he could head to the NBA after this season. He's been the lead guard for the Sooners the whole way and has scored 14.7 per game while dishing out 3.1 assists.
Best 6th Man - Matt Lawrence (Missouri)
Tall gunner for the Tigers came off the bench to provide offensive firepower for the team that finished 3rd outright. He averaged a shade under 9 ppg on 41% shooting from behind the arc.
Coach of the Year - Bill Self (Kansas)
Self lost all 5 starters and 6 of his top 7 off last year's national championship team and reloaded with a bunch of young, unknown pieces around Sherron Collins to win his 5th straight Big 12 championship. It was the first time KU has won 5 straight conference titles in over 80 years.
All Big 12, First Team
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
Sherron Collins, Kansas
Cole Aldrich, Kansas
DeMarre Carroll, Missouri
James Anderson, Oklahoma State
All Big 12, Second Team
Craig Brackens, Iowa State
Damion James, Texas
Cory Higgins, Colorado
Denis Clemente, Kansas State
Josh Carter, Texas A&M
Biggest Disappointments:
Texas - The Longhorns were picked (narrowly) to finish 2nd to Oklahoma and received more 1st place votes from league coaches than anyone in the preseason. Rick Barnes shoulders most of the blame as he had what is, in my opinion, the worst season of his career. Barnes has spent the last 3 years mishandling AJ Abrams, refusing to pull him for taking bad shots, not passing the ball to open teammates (which in years past including Kevin Durant), and general not forcing him to be phyiscal which made him a suspect defender and keeps him from ever exploiting his elite free throw shooting. Barnes took entirely too long to figure out that Dogus Balbay can play Big 12 point guard even though he can't shoot at all, which should have been fairly obvious given we're not far removed from Doug Gottlieb being successful in the league. Finally, putting Damion James in a hybrid 3/4 position kept him from being as good as he could be, and even given that he became the best player on the team. It's like Barnes thought James was PJ Tucker, even though James possesses superior atheticism and a WAY more consistent jump shot. Tucker played that hybrid position because he had to, James plays it because of a coaching error.
Baylor - If Rick Barnes did a poor coaching job this season, then Scott Drew did a miserable one. The Bears returned all the pieces from an NCAA tournament team and have vastly underachieved themselves into a probable road game in the first round of the NIT. They still seem allergic to defense and if jump shots aren't going in early, this is a team that lacks the toughness to play though it. In hindsight, the high expectations for Baylor might have been misplaced. Digging a little further into last season, they did scratch together a 9-7 conference schedule, but their best win was against 8-8 Texas A&M. They took advantage of the fact that, while the top of the Big 12 was tough, the middle and bottom wasn't very good or consistent. They were competitive against Texas and Kansas, beat all the bottom feeders, and made the tournament. This year, the Big 12 is considered down because the top of the conference isn't as elite as those Jayhawks and Longhorns that shared the title last year...but overlooked is that the middle of the conference has toughened up considerably. A&M, K-State, Okie State, and Texas are all 9-7. Nebraska is a tough, undersized squad that's tough to beat in Lincoln. Missouri came out of nowhere to go 12-4. The number of teams likely to take you to the woodshed was lower, but the number of easy conference wins was also lower. Baylor suffered from this.
You'll hear more than you want to over the next couple weeks as he racks up Big 12 and National POY awards. He's the best player in the country by a decent amount and had a great season. 22.1 points and 14.2 rebounds, both best in the Big 12, and good for 12th and 2nd in the nation, respectively.
Defensive Player of the Year - Cole Aldrich (Kansas)
In a year where the conference was devoid of a guard that was a defensive standout, Aldrich led the lead in blocks with 2.5/game (good for 21st in the country) and changed many more with his interior presence and was a huge reason why Kansas led the conference, and was 7th nationally, in field goal percentage defense. He trailed only Griffin among Big 12 players in rebounds.
Freshman of the Year - Willie Warren (Oklahoma)
By far the conference's best freshman and has played so well that there's a possibility he could head to the NBA after this season. He's been the lead guard for the Sooners the whole way and has scored 14.7 per game while dishing out 3.1 assists.
Best 6th Man - Matt Lawrence (Missouri)
Tall gunner for the Tigers came off the bench to provide offensive firepower for the team that finished 3rd outright. He averaged a shade under 9 ppg on 41% shooting from behind the arc.
Coach of the Year - Bill Self (Kansas)
Self lost all 5 starters and 6 of his top 7 off last year's national championship team and reloaded with a bunch of young, unknown pieces around Sherron Collins to win his 5th straight Big 12 championship. It was the first time KU has won 5 straight conference titles in over 80 years.
All Big 12, First Team
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
Sherron Collins, Kansas
Cole Aldrich, Kansas
DeMarre Carroll, Missouri
James Anderson, Oklahoma State
All Big 12, Second Team
Craig Brackens, Iowa State
Damion James, Texas
Cory Higgins, Colorado
Denis Clemente, Kansas State
Josh Carter, Texas A&M
Biggest Disappointments:
Texas - The Longhorns were picked (narrowly) to finish 2nd to Oklahoma and received more 1st place votes from league coaches than anyone in the preseason. Rick Barnes shoulders most of the blame as he had what is, in my opinion, the worst season of his career. Barnes has spent the last 3 years mishandling AJ Abrams, refusing to pull him for taking bad shots, not passing the ball to open teammates (which in years past including Kevin Durant), and general not forcing him to be phyiscal which made him a suspect defender and keeps him from ever exploiting his elite free throw shooting. Barnes took entirely too long to figure out that Dogus Balbay can play Big 12 point guard even though he can't shoot at all, which should have been fairly obvious given we're not far removed from Doug Gottlieb being successful in the league. Finally, putting Damion James in a hybrid 3/4 position kept him from being as good as he could be, and even given that he became the best player on the team. It's like Barnes thought James was PJ Tucker, even though James possesses superior atheticism and a WAY more consistent jump shot. Tucker played that hybrid position because he had to, James plays it because of a coaching error.
Baylor - If Rick Barnes did a poor coaching job this season, then Scott Drew did a miserable one. The Bears returned all the pieces from an NCAA tournament team and have vastly underachieved themselves into a probable road game in the first round of the NIT. They still seem allergic to defense and if jump shots aren't going in early, this is a team that lacks the toughness to play though it. In hindsight, the high expectations for Baylor might have been misplaced. Digging a little further into last season, they did scratch together a 9-7 conference schedule, but their best win was against 8-8 Texas A&M. They took advantage of the fact that, while the top of the Big 12 was tough, the middle and bottom wasn't very good or consistent. They were competitive against Texas and Kansas, beat all the bottom feeders, and made the tournament. This year, the Big 12 is considered down because the top of the conference isn't as elite as those Jayhawks and Longhorns that shared the title last year...but overlooked is that the middle of the conference has toughened up considerably. A&M, K-State, Okie State, and Texas are all 9-7. Nebraska is a tough, undersized squad that's tough to beat in Lincoln. Missouri came out of nowhere to go 12-4. The number of teams likely to take you to the woodshed was lower, but the number of easy conference wins was also lower. Baylor suffered from this.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
The Rise of the NFL Safety
The old adage of running the football and playing defense to win in the playoffs held true in the AFC this season, with the Ravens and Steelers playing for the conference championship in addition to the Titans having the best record in football. The NFC was a wild ride of vastly contrasting styles. The Cardinals represented the conference in the Super Bowl by spreading you out and throwing it to two all-word receivers. Philly is a good defensive team but they don't even really pretend to be a true running team...choosing to make most of their noise in the short passing game (in part to take advatange of Brian Westbrook). The Giants and Panthers tied for the best record in the NFC, the Giants doing it with a great defense...the Panthers really doing it with smoke and mirrors.
So, what links Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Philadelphia together? An outstanding, do everything safety. It doesn't even really matter if the guy is a free or strong safety. Ed Reed plays free safety, makes tons of plays, and essentially makes the middle of the field a very difficult place to attack. Troy Polamalu plays strong safety and is an absolute run stuffer. He's also strong enough to play man-to-man against a tight end and fast enough to cover a 3rd wide receiver in a nickel look. These are the two most obvious ones, but the other "final four" teams had underrated safeties roaming their secondary. The Eagles did it a bit by committee with Brian Dawkins and Quintin Mikell finishing 2nd and 3rd on the team in tackles, as well as combining for 8 forced fumbles and 4 interceptions. Both guys started every game. Arizona had Antrel Rolle, a young 4th year guy who was 2nd on the team in tackles...though only had 1 INT, mostly because teams stayed away from him based on 5 picks last year.
So, what does is mean? Is the saftey position going to join QB, CB, OT, DT, and DE as a sort of premium position because guys are hard to find? We've seen this before with the emergence of TE that can do more than run block and sneak into the flat for the occasional pass. At tight end, Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe redefined the position, and it looked like (at least for a couple of years) that an athletic tight end might be required to be among the best offenses in football. That ultimately hasn't panned out for a couple reasons 1) The dropoff after Gonzalez, Gates, Winslow, and Shockey is pretty large and 2) Teams found ways to get "3rd receiver" production by using more spread sets and getting guys like Wes Welker and Brandon Stokely the ball in space.
True game-changing safeties like Reed and Polamalu will be hard enough to find that I think we'll see something similar to the evolution of the tight end. Teams that have one will have an advantage, at least in the short term, but one coming along that's good enough to spend a first round, or especially early first round, pick on will be rare. Teams that don't have one might try to find TWO elite corners, so their safeties don't need to be relied on in coverage (what the Cowboys tried, and failed, with Roy Williams...really never find a guy to play opposite Newman). Or maybe you try to have a top 5 type guy at DT and LB, to keep your safeties from being needed in run support as much (kinda the Bears strategy with Tommie Harris, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher...Mike Brown is serviceable with that supporting cast).
Right now, the safety position is probably as important as it has ever been in the NFL. It'll be interesting to see how that evolves.
So, what links Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Philadelphia together? An outstanding, do everything safety. It doesn't even really matter if the guy is a free or strong safety. Ed Reed plays free safety, makes tons of plays, and essentially makes the middle of the field a very difficult place to attack. Troy Polamalu plays strong safety and is an absolute run stuffer. He's also strong enough to play man-to-man against a tight end and fast enough to cover a 3rd wide receiver in a nickel look. These are the two most obvious ones, but the other "final four" teams had underrated safeties roaming their secondary. The Eagles did it a bit by committee with Brian Dawkins and Quintin Mikell finishing 2nd and 3rd on the team in tackles, as well as combining for 8 forced fumbles and 4 interceptions. Both guys started every game. Arizona had Antrel Rolle, a young 4th year guy who was 2nd on the team in tackles...though only had 1 INT, mostly because teams stayed away from him based on 5 picks last year.
So, what does is mean? Is the saftey position going to join QB, CB, OT, DT, and DE as a sort of premium position because guys are hard to find? We've seen this before with the emergence of TE that can do more than run block and sneak into the flat for the occasional pass. At tight end, Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe redefined the position, and it looked like (at least for a couple of years) that an athletic tight end might be required to be among the best offenses in football. That ultimately hasn't panned out for a couple reasons 1) The dropoff after Gonzalez, Gates, Winslow, and Shockey is pretty large and 2) Teams found ways to get "3rd receiver" production by using more spread sets and getting guys like Wes Welker and Brandon Stokely the ball in space.
True game-changing safeties like Reed and Polamalu will be hard enough to find that I think we'll see something similar to the evolution of the tight end. Teams that have one will have an advantage, at least in the short term, but one coming along that's good enough to spend a first round, or especially early first round, pick on will be rare. Teams that don't have one might try to find TWO elite corners, so their safeties don't need to be relied on in coverage (what the Cowboys tried, and failed, with Roy Williams...really never find a guy to play opposite Newman). Or maybe you try to have a top 5 type guy at DT and LB, to keep your safeties from being needed in run support as much (kinda the Bears strategy with Tommie Harris, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher...Mike Brown is serviceable with that supporting cast).
Right now, the safety position is probably as important as it has ever been in the NFL. It'll be interesting to see how that evolves.
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