NFL: Week 2

Carolina -3 Chicago - The Panthers spent the offseason getting healthy and are no longer running David Carr or Vinny Testaverde out there at QB. This team much more closely resembles the one that went to the NFC championship game 2 years ago. The Bears are getting propped up here by the nice win in Indy, but they don't have the benefit of a QB that hadn't practiced all preseason this week and they won't find the gaping holes for the running game that the Colts' defense gave them. This is the Bears second straight road game, a historically tough spot in the NFL, as the home team enjoyed a 39-29 record in that situation last season. Carolina has covered 5 of their last 6 overall and 3 straight at home.

San Diego +1 Denver - Betting against the public here. The Chargers opened as a 3 point favorite but money has poured in on Denver after their primetime humiliation of the Raiders. The Raiders probably aren't as bad as they looked last Sunday and the Broncos not as good. The opening line was about right, I think...so this is a value play. San Diego has owned Denver, and the whole division actually, lately. The Chargers are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Broncos and have covered 7 of their last 8 against the AFC West. The Chargers had one home loss last year...the following week they went to Denver as a 1 1/2 point favorite and won 41-3.

Minnesota +1 1/2 Indianapolis - Two teams coming off extremely disappointing performances in week 1. Indy scratched together a mediocre run defense last year but the Bears made them look like 2006's defense, which ranked dead last in the NFL before miraculously coming together for the Super Bowl run. The Colts will still end up being a good team, but the defense has question marks, Peyton still has less that 10 practices under his belt, and they play a tough Viking team today that will be able to run the football.

NY Giants -8 1/2 St. Louis - I don't even want to play this game, but it's just not enough points. The Giants were a considerably better road team than they were at home last year, going 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the number. On the other hand, the Rams were 1-7 at home and lost those games by an average of 9 points. Against what you might loosely define as a good team, they were 0-3 SU, ATS and lost by an average of 2 touchdowns. I'm not really in love with the Giants here as much as I'm convinced that the Rams are really, really bad.

Tampa Bay -7 Atlanta - I'm still not convinced on Atlanta. They looked good offensively last week, and that's holding this number down, but they were playing at home against the team that ranked last in the NFL in total defense last year. Today, they take their rookie QB on the road to play the defense that finished 2007 ranked 2nd in total defense and as the best in the league against the pass. So, the road will be much tougher sledding today. The Bucs were 6-2 at home (SU and ATS) last year and were 6-3 ATS overall as a favorite.

Leans...

Buffalo +4 1/2
San Francisco +6 1/2
Miami +6 1/2

San Fran and Miami would have both been plays at 7 or higher. Neither one of my books has it that high, but keep an eye out. The 49ers are +7 lots of places and the Fish are +7 one or two places. I'll play either one of those if they move to 7 somewhere I can bet.