NCAA Football: Week 4

Buffalo +3 1/2 Temple - Wrong Team Favored. Both teams return 15 starters and this line is being affected by the fact that the Bulls needed a hail mary at the end of the game last year to get by the Owls. Lost in that is that Buffalo is 12-1 all-time against Temple, and this Temple team was bad enough to lose to FCS Villanova. Buffalo comes in having lost two straight, at home to Pitt and at Central Florida, while Temple comes in after having a covered against Penn State in a game that they drastically trailed in total yardage until moving it some in garbage time.

Florida State -14 South Florida - Matt Grothe will miss the rest of the season with an injury to his knee, and he's taken pretty much every Bull snap for the last 3+ years since winning the job early as a true freshman, including leading the team in passing and rushing for most of that time. They'll have trouble replacing him seamlessly. The Seminoles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 at home against non-conference opponents, and South Florida is 4-7 against the number in their last 11 away from home.

Utah -14 Louisville - The Utes in a bounce-back spot after their first loss since 2007 last week at Oregon. Utah is 0-3 ATS on the season, which will trend money away from them and make them a value play here. Louisville is in a bit of a letdown spot after a close, hard-fought, emotional loss to hated rival Kentucky last week. The Utes have covered 3 of the last 4 at home, has won their last 6 against the Big East, and is 3-0 against Louisville. The Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 away from home, covering in 3 of those game.

Minnesota PK Northwestern - The Golden Gophers return 17 starters from a bowl team, and I still think they'll ultimately be improved. They lost at home to Northwestern last year, which is why the Wildcats opened as a favorite, but they've improved more than Northwestern has. The Wildcats hold the head-to-head trend edge, but Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 away from home.

Leans:

Georgia / Arizona State UNDER 50 1/2
Georgia Tech -3 North Carolina
Purdue +7 Notre Dame
Middle Tennessee -6 North Texas
Florida International PK Toledo