NFL: Week 8

San Diego -4 Tennessee - Last week's analysis still holds true for the Chargers...at some point this team will stop firing bullets into its feet and win games. Last week they drastically outgained the Patriots, were -4 in turnover margin, and still managed to have a kick that would have sent the game into OT. So, it's back on the bandwagon today, with the Titans dragging the #24 total offense in the NFL to town. If the Chargers avoid giving short fields (a tall order, I know), Tennessee will struggle to move the ball. With last week's loss, San Diego fell to 4-2-1 in their last 7 home games.

New Orleans -1 Pittsburgh - Little bit of a steam play here but, while the Saints have been a general underachiever this year, this is turning into a game they might need. The Falcons look like they're for real, and they have a win in New Orleans, so the Saints know they have to get going to keep pace in the division. The Saints have covered 9 of their last 10 against AFC teams.

NY Jets -6 Green Bay - The Jets have probably not gotten quite enough respect, and it shows in their 5-1 ATS record. They come in here rested of the BYE week and ready for just their 2nd home game since week 2. After a fairly shaky performance in Denver, where they squeaked out a win and cover, I'd expect the Jets to play well today. It's also a tough spot for Green Bay, being a roadie jammed in between home games against Favre and Dallas. The Jets are 12-3 ATS over their last 15.

Buffalo +7 Kansas City - Another game where last week's analysis holds...Kansas City probably isn't as good as their record indicates, and Buffalo with Fitzpatrick isn't your typical terrible winless team. While the Bills really AREN'T very good, they have a couple of nice pieces and had the look last week of a team desperate to get a win. Buffalo won and covered in Arrowhead last year, though this is an admittedly different Chiefs team, and the Bills are 2-1 ATS on the road this year.

Detroit -2 1/2 Washington - The Lions are another team coming off a BYE, and they're getting Matthew Stafford back. They've been WAY better than their schedule indicates, and they draw a Washington team that is next to last in total defense...covered last week by the fact that Jay Cutler wouldn't stop throwing the ball to them. The Lions are 5-1 against the number this season.

Carolina +2 1/2 St Louis - The resurgent Rams have surprised, while Carolina has been terrible, but I like the Panthers in this spot. St Louis is giving up 4.6 yards per carry, which should help Carolina's potent but underachieving running game get on track. With DeAngelo Williams out, they won't be compelled to split the carries in some illogical way. Carolina has dominated this series historically, going 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in the last 16, including winning and covering the last 3.