NFL: Week 12

Atlanta -1 1/2 Green Bay - The Packers enter on what seems like an unsustainable hot streak, but that 4 game winning streak (both SU and ATS) has come against 3 crappy teams and an overrated Jets squad that I can't wait to bet against in the playoffs. Atlanta rides their own 4 game winning steak into this game, but they've done it against two 7 win teams and on the road against a suddenly resurgent Rams squad.

San Diego +3 Indianapolis - The underachieving Chargers have finally gotten it going and have new life in the AFC West race. The Colts are battling injuries more than perhaps any team in football. The underdog is 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS in the last 6 in this series and San Diego is 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Indy.

Jacksonville / NY Giants OVER 44 - Since the Jags have gotten more of their offensive pieces healthy, they've been a pretty good offensive team. The Giants enter on back-to-back disappointing losses within their division. J'ville has played 4 straight games that have gone over, while the Giants have gone over in 4 of their last 5.

Jacksonville +7 NY Giants - Too many points. The Jags losses have come to San Diego, Philly, Tennessee, and Kansas City. They've played a brutal schedule, largely without their QB, and have somehow emerged from that 6-4. They've covered 3 straight and 5 of their last 7.

San Francisco -1 Arizona - Arizona is terrible, San Fran is less terrible. The road team has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series, and the 49ers still have a chance to win the NFC West...if you can believe that.

Leans:

Seattle +2 1/2

St Louis +3 1/2

Philadelphia -3

NCAA: Week 12

Michigan State -1 1/2 Penn St - Sparty is playing for a share of the Big Ten title today, though it would be a pretty discouraging tie...since they'd likely be left out of the BCS bowl picture entirely with Ohio State and Wisconsin both heavy favorites today. They have the tie-breaker over Wisconsin, which means their fans will actually rooting for Michigan. Penn State isn't very good, MSU is coming off a shaky performance and should play well. If you need some numbers, this Spartan senior class is 10-5-1 ATS in road games.

Stanford -13 1/2 Oregon State - Good news, bad news trend here. Stanford is 12-4 against the number in the last 3 years at home, but they're just 4-9 SU, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 against Oregon State. This is the best of those Stanford teams, one of the best in the history of the school, and they're still playing for a BCS bowl...though that bowl isn't likely to be the Rose at this point.

Missouri -24 1/2 Kansas - When one team has the opportunity to crush the other in this series, they generally don't pass on it. In any sport. This game represents the biggest mismatch in recent memory, and Mizzou will take great pride in making this game get ugly. We learn today just how much Turner Gill understands about this rivalry.

More Plays:

Oklahoma +3 - OU owns this conference until proven otherwise and has been in a game this big before

Ole Miss +3 - Miss St is a road favorite now?

Iowa -15 - Bounce back spot from a tough loss to tOSU against a terrible Minnesota team

Leans:

BYU +9

USC -4

Ohio State/Michigan OVER 64

NFL: Week 10

No writeups

Plays:

Cleveland +3 NY Jets

Pittsburgh -4 1/2 New England

Tennessee -1 Miami

Minnesota -1 Chicago

Leans:

Seattle +3

Indy -7

NFL: Week 9

Cleveland +4 New England - Cleveland has quietly been a pretty decent team, but nobody has really noticed because the close losses to Tampa and Kansas City early in the season looked bad at the time. They come off a BYE here after a great win at New Orleans, and Colt McCoy today finally gets to face a crappy pass defense. The Browns have covered 5 of their last 7 at home, and they're 8-3-1 in their last last dozen as an underdog.

Atlanta -8 1/2 Tampa Bay - It's a good thing the Buccaneers exist, because it keeps the heat off my Chiefs as the crappiest team that's overachieved to 5-2. The flipside is those two losses were both ass-kickings against the only two good teams that they've played, and both of those were at home. This is the first time they've ventured on the road to play a team that's even decent. Today the pit their #30 run defense against the league's 5th best rushing offense.

Buffalo +3 Chicago - The Bills continue to play decently as the desperation for their first win sets in. After back-to-back overtime losses on the road, they return "home" (to Toronto) for their best chance at getting the win column off zero. After the Bears hot 3-0 start, they've won and covered just 1 of their last 4.

NY Giants -7 Seattle - When the Giants have the ball, Eli Manning and that high-powered offense will enjoy the 4th worst pass defense in the NFL. When the Seahawks have the ball, Charlie Whitehurst will play against a fierce front 7. Really tough spot for the Seattle here, even though the line has held fairly well in reverence to how tough it is to play there.

San Diego -3 Houston - The Chargers are still better than their record, while the Texans have only covered twice this year...so I'll back the Bolts for the 3rd week in a row. San Diego has won and covered 3 straight in the series.

Baltimore -5 Miami - Hunch play...feels like the Dolphins are getting a little too much love for being unbeaten on the road so far. Baltimore is getting healthy pieces back on defense, so they're probably a little better than they've shown so far, even though they've been fine W/L-wise.

NCAA: Week 10

No writeups. Lots of road favorites today. Not sure how I feel about that....

Missouri -4 1/2 Texas Tech

Alabama -6 1/2 LSU

Iowa State +17 Nebraska

Oklahoma -3 Texas A&M

Michigan State -24 Minnesota

NFL: Week 8

San Diego -4 Tennessee - Last week's analysis still holds true for the Chargers...at some point this team will stop firing bullets into its feet and win games. Last week they drastically outgained the Patriots, were -4 in turnover margin, and still managed to have a kick that would have sent the game into OT. So, it's back on the bandwagon today, with the Titans dragging the #24 total offense in the NFL to town. If the Chargers avoid giving short fields (a tall order, I know), Tennessee will struggle to move the ball. With last week's loss, San Diego fell to 4-2-1 in their last 7 home games.

New Orleans -1 Pittsburgh - Little bit of a steam play here but, while the Saints have been a general underachiever this year, this is turning into a game they might need. The Falcons look like they're for real, and they have a win in New Orleans, so the Saints know they have to get going to keep pace in the division. The Saints have covered 9 of their last 10 against AFC teams.

NY Jets -6 Green Bay - The Jets have probably not gotten quite enough respect, and it shows in their 5-1 ATS record. They come in here rested of the BYE week and ready for just their 2nd home game since week 2. After a fairly shaky performance in Denver, where they squeaked out a win and cover, I'd expect the Jets to play well today. It's also a tough spot for Green Bay, being a roadie jammed in between home games against Favre and Dallas. The Jets are 12-3 ATS over their last 15.

Buffalo +7 Kansas City - Another game where last week's analysis holds...Kansas City probably isn't as good as their record indicates, and Buffalo with Fitzpatrick isn't your typical terrible winless team. While the Bills really AREN'T very good, they have a couple of nice pieces and had the look last week of a team desperate to get a win. Buffalo won and covered in Arrowhead last year, though this is an admittedly different Chiefs team, and the Bills are 2-1 ATS on the road this year.

Detroit -2 1/2 Washington - The Lions are another team coming off a BYE, and they're getting Matthew Stafford back. They've been WAY better than their schedule indicates, and they draw a Washington team that is next to last in total defense...covered last week by the fact that Jay Cutler wouldn't stop throwing the ball to them. The Lions are 5-1 against the number this season.

Carolina +2 1/2 St Louis - The resurgent Rams have surprised, while Carolina has been terrible, but I like the Panthers in this spot. St Louis is giving up 4.6 yards per carry, which should help Carolina's potent but underachieving running game get on track. With DeAngelo Williams out, they won't be compelled to split the carries in some illogical way. Carolina has dominated this series historically, going 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in the last 16, including winning and covering the last 3.

NCAA: Week 9

Air Force +7 Utah - The Utes have covered several in a row, and Air Force hasn't covered in awhile which all leads to this line having some value. Utah is currently ranked 6th nationally against the run, but they've built that ranking against crappy run offenses (#52, #99, #111, #117, #63, #118, and #103). Utah is also in the tough position of going on the road against a funky offense you don't see much with TCU looming in a huge game next weekend with all sorts of BCS implications. If you're into trends, the underdog is 7-6 SU and 12-1 ATS in the last 13 in this series.

K-State +4 1/2 Oklahoma State - The Wildcats were an intriguing possibility here, even before OSU had to suspend their best receiver for a DUI (coming home from Monday Night Football in the middle of the night after sitting in Dez Bryant's seats...but hey, we're not here to uncover NCAA violations). K-State's defense has been pretty good when they're not facing a running QB, and pretty bad when they are, but the Cowboys don't really present that dimension. And for how good OSU looked running it against Nebraska last week, K-State actually has the better run offense and they're at home. K-State's numbers against the run are terrible, but they're kinda the opposite of Utah, the run offenses they've played have included #6, #22, #26, #30...all better than Okie State. K-State has won and covered 5 straight against OSU in Manhattan.

Iowa State -18 1/2 Kansas - If KU is going to suck, I might as well make some money on it. Iowa State has covered 7 of the last 8 at home in this series, and half that marks some pretty heady times for Jayhawk Football. TBD on how the Cyclones will handle last week's big win...they went to A&M and got blasted after springing the upset in Lincoln last year.

Iowa -6 1/2 Michigan State - Sparty has had a magical run, but there's a reason the computers don't like them (Sagarin's predictors has them just 25th, for example). And they're in a really tough spot on the road against a pissed off team today. Iowa has owned this series against the number (covering 7 of the last 8), and the Hawkeyes have been OUTSTANDING the last few years after SU losses, going 9-3-1 against the number in "bounce back" spots.

Hawaii -15 Idaho - Hawaii is always tough at home, they're finally putting the pieces together under the new coaching staff, they're back to leading the universe in passing, and they've been great against the number this year (6-1 so far). The favorite (usually Hawaii but not last year) has covered 6 straight in this series.

Clemson -7 Boston College - The BC Eagles are the ACC's version of Kansas until proven otherwise, but Clemson has actually looked awfully good at times this year. They were a monumental Auburn comeback away from winning that game, they played North Carolina tough in their last road game. If this team is as good as they've shown flashes of, this is a game they go get. Disclaimer: The underdog has won 4 of the last 5 in this series, though Clemson has won and covered 2 straight.

Leans:

Missouri +7 1/2 Nebraska

Northwestern -3 1/2 Indiana

Miami (OH) - 2 1/2 Buffalo

Texas Tech +7 1/2 Texas A&M