NFL: Week 10

San Diego -14 Kansas City - Bought a half point. The Chiefs have left it all on the field the last two weeks in two inspired efforts but come up short. They travel west to play a pissed off Chargers team that is coming off consecutive losses, just had their BYE week to get healthy, and still has legitimate aspirations of winning the AFC West. The Chargers are 8-1-1 against the number in their last 10 against AFC West opponents and they've covered 9 of their last 10 as a favorite of 8 or more. The Chiefs are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 against San Diego.

Houston PK Baltimore - Don't look now, but the Texans aren't terrible any more. They're just 3-5 so far, but they've played a brutal schedule. After opening with 3 straight road games against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, then playing Indianapolis at home (thus starting 0-4)...they've gone 3-1 through a more manageable part of their schedule. They're coming off a tough road loss last week, are now ranked #4 in the NFL in total offense, Sage Rosenfels kept it going last week in relief of Schaub, and Andre Johnson is turning into a superstar. They're valuable in this spot as the public is overvaluing Baltimore. The Ravens have covered 3 straight, all by double digits, but the last two weeks they've played #27 and #29 in total offense. The only truly impressive performance in that 3 game run came at Miami after Baltimore had lost 3 straight and been embarrassed the week before by Indy.

Indianapolis +4 1/2 Pittsburgh - The Steelers have done a pretty good of beating up on bad teams, but Monday night was their first really impressive performance. They are a good football team with a good defense working on a short week. The defense probably isn't as good as the #1 ranking might indicate, given the schedule a couple of bad weather games they've played. The Colts got Anthony Gonzalez involved last week which gives them another weapon in the passing game and Joseph Addai is getting healthier every week. Their offense is gaining firepower and the defense has all the pieces back, which gets the Colts back to being a good team. Should be a very close game, so I'll take the points.

Minnesota -2 1/2 Green Bay - Suspicious line here, since Green Bay has won 5 straight in this series and is 4-1 against the number in their last 5 in Minnesota. But Brett Favre isnt walking through that door. The Vikings are extremely good against the run, so Aaron Rodgers will be asked to win this game with his arm, on the road, in a loud environment rivalry game, in a spot where both teams are desperate for a win to keep pace with the Bears in the NFC North. I like Rodgers a lot, but that's a pretty tall order for him today, especially when you figure he'll have limited opportunities. The Packers aren't very good against the run, checking in at #28 in the league, which will mean the Vikings can have success with their rushing attack, score some points, and control the ball. The Vikings are good as a small favorite, covering 8 of their last 10 as a favorite of less than 3.

Chicago +3 Tennessee - The Edge made money last week betting against the Titans and we're going back to the well this week. This Bears defense isn't as good as in years past, but they are well suited for the stretch run...being much tougher against the run (#6) than they are against the pass (#30). This imbalance also makes the defense match up pretty well against Tennessee, since the Titans are STILL waiting for their first 200 yard passing day. The Bears are a cold weather team in general, covering 7 of their last 10 in November. The Bears are also really good in the small underdog spot, going 7-2-1 against the number (7-3 SU) as a dog of 4 or less.

Leans:

Jacksonville -6 1/2
Atlanta -1